JoshMartini007

They'll have to change the qualification criteria (which they've done in the past) or at the very least select an event where they know South African athletes will likely be competing.

Group F hasn't announced a competition yet, we may have to watch the composite rankings for reallocation which will likely benefit a European team.

Haha... I was thinking more along the lines of changing the 110m hurdles to 400m hurdles. Maybe also changing the 400m to 800m and 1500m to 5000m to encourage more long distance running.

I think the federation is trying to make the argument that since the FIH stated being in the Top 20 is sufficient enough to compete then South Africa is strong enough to compete without going through the final qualifiers. Whether or not they buy it is a different question.

The men also reach the standard too. To be honest the decathlon needs to be changed so it doesn't favour sprinters so much.

I love that the level of decathlon/heptathlon is so high that athletes are reaching the qualification time/distance for the single event.

The women shouldn't have an issue, but Egypt has a pretty good chance for the upset.

Loew went 17/17 then went 1/7, effectively costing him the quota

There's also a chance that the tripartite quota won't be allocated (I think Pakistan in the men's was the only eligible nation competing at the World Championships) so that would be another quota reallocated to the world championships.

Since we now know which nations are eligible to receive a tripartite invitations I decide to take a closer look. Currently 18 eligible nations have at least one shooter that has reached the MQS, including Kuwait which has already qualified quotas. Given that there are 24 quotas, it is likely we will seem some of them reallocated, though as Bolivia showed in 2016 nations could be given multiple tripartite quotas. One big difference relative to 2016 is that there is now a fixed quota for each event (2 per event) whereas 2016 the quotas could be spread however they pleased. This has a huge impact on the competition for the quotas. Overall the 10m events have the most competition with women's 10m air rifle having 11 eligible nations, including 3 nations (Andorra, Bhutan and Nepal) having their only MQS mark in this event meaning we can't even have all 18 nations entered. On the flip side both the men's 25m rapid fire pistol and men's skeet have two eligible nations (OMA/PAK and MLT/PAK respectively). Oman has the most options with eligible athletes in all events except the men's skeet. They also have an athletes with a MQS that's in the top two in five events, one more than Malta, Pakistan and Kuwait (ignoring events they have already qualified in). Of course, the quota doesn't necessarily go to the best tripartite nation as they take into account universality and how quotas in other sports are given out. This is why Bhutan is likely to be given the shooting quota despite being the second weakest nation in the women's 10m air rifle. Here's a list of current eligible nations from each event and their best score Men's 10m Air Rifle 1. - 624.7 2. - 621.9 3. - 617.0 4. - 616.8 5. - 616.3 6. - 614.0 7. - 602.7 8. - 599.4 (only MQS) 9. - 595.2 (only MQS) Men's 50m Rifle 3 Positions 1. - 1161 2. - 1152 3. - 1136 Men's 10m Air Pistol 1. - 577 2. - 574 3. - 573 4. - 572 5. - 570 5. - 570 7. - 569 8. - 565 9. - 563 (only MQS) Men's 25m Rapid Fire Pistol 1. - 583 2. - 571 Men's Trap 1. - 121 2. - 119 2. - 119 4. - 116 5. - 115 Men's Skeet 1. - 122 2. - 118 Women's 10m Air Rifle 1. - 620.6 2. - 618.8 3. - 617.3 4. - 614.7 5. - 614.2 6. - 613.6 7. - 609.7 8. - 604.3 (only MQS) 9. - 602.5 (only MQS) 10. - 601.8 (only MQS) 11. - 596.5 Women's 50m Rifle 3 Positions 1. - 1145 2. - 1142 3. - 1130 4. - 1125 Women's 10m Air Pistol 1. - 574 2. - 568 3. - 563 3. - 563 3. - 563 6. - 561 (only MQS) 7. - 560 8. - 556 9. - 553 Women's 25m Pistol 1. - 577 2. - 574 3. - 571 3. - 571 5. - 569 Women's Trap 1. - 121 2. - 120 3. - 112 4. - 104 Women's Skeet 1. - 115 2. - 101 3. - 97

loses another shoot-off . At least she's pretty much guaranteed a tripartite quota, even if she fails to qualify at the European level.

It also doesn't help that they had 12 athletes in 2016. Qualifying in judo and swimming would mean they would be excluded for 2024 too.

Congo may also suffer a bit too as their strength in table tennis continues to drop

Even ignoring IAAF's new rule I imagine many of them would return in 2024. Most of those nations got athletics and swimming wild cards plus 2-4 universality quotas so it would only take a couple normally qualified athletes to push them over the threshold, which is what happened. The lack of tripartite quotas would just push them back below the threshold.

Angola has team sports it can qualify in. Cook Islands will be looking at canoeing and sailing. Lebanon's best bet would be shooting. A few of these nations were just barely above the threshold and will likely be eligible in 2024 due to being unable to use tripartite quotas.

Just like in ice hockey

Well he was the combined world champion at the 2012, 2014 and 2016 editions

List of eligible tripartite nations has been revealed. Basically nations with 8 or fewer average athletes over the past two Olympics are eligible. Nations no longer eligible (relative to 2016): Nations added (relative to 2016):

Some stats based on the above table. Eight nations won all of their medals in Olympic events though only Panama won more than two medals (four total). In terms of percentage Bolivia had most of its medals (80%) from non-Olympic events (4/5). Other high percentages include El Salvador (3/4) and Uruguay (6/9). Among nations which finished in the top 10 Peru (43.6% of total) and Mexico (37.5% of total) relied the most on non-Olympic events while Cuba (14.3% of total), Dominican Republic (15.0% of total) and Brazil (15.2% of total) relied the least on non-Olympic events.

Glad I'm not the only one. If it wasn't for the fact that the event is acknowledged I would have thought it may have been cancelled.

I don't think so, they have a chance in karate, after that they would have to win in BMX freestyle, but I'm not sure how that will go. If anything, Cuba has a better chance at passing us.

I don't think history should play a bit part on whether or not an event should be part of the Olympics. Just because it was popular a long time ago does not justify it's inclusion if very few nations participate in it now. The largest factor should be the nation participation rate at World and Continental Champions and other major events. The Olympic schedule would be quite different if the IOC was remotely strict with their criteria.

Even if we don't win a medal, I don't see Argentina/Colombia passing us.

Big day for a lot of nations, mostly thanks to the sheer number of medals (72 events) on the line. Will Canada find a way to keep up with Mexico? Will Cuba make a run for a top 4 finish? Who will win the Argentina/Colombia battle? Which nations will end up in the top 10?

Looks like the match race for the women's 49erFX was postponed for tomorrow.