JoshMartini007

They gave short track 9 medals, maybe they thought they were being too greedy

America's qualifiers were always going to be brutal. At least there's one less nation (USA) to contend with

Rhythmic Gymnastics was also posted, but for some reason is not listed. Maybe something wasn't correct? The file is still active.

2028 Team Size Projection – Jan 2026 Update Here’s an update to my 2028 Team Size Projection. While I touch upon major events changes may occur due to results in smaller events. Additionally, several sports released their qualification document so there may be cases where I have to update the projection. I will only include sports where there is an update. Here is the link to the updated sheet. Aquatics (Water Polo) The Men’s European Championships saw take gold. The victory moved Serbia up a few places between European nations. With that said, no one fell out of Olympic qualification with the likes of France and Romania still on the outside looking in. remains on the edge. Athletics (Marathon) Both the Xiamen and Osaka marathons were held this month along with a few other smaller events. While there were a few changes in the rankings, in terms of Olympic projections gains an athlete in the men’s marathon at the expense of Badminton Major tournaments include the Malaysia Open and India Open. New updates which affected projections include the women’s doubles where overtook . As Polina Buhrova is also scheduled to compete in the singles event, an additional spot has been open. Other changes in the women’s singles was loses one of their quotas. and benefit from those losses. Indonesia’s loss on the women’s side is offset by gaining a second player in the men’s singles. This puts on the outside. Canoeing The qualification document for both Slalom and Sprint were released/updated. No significant changes were found in the Sprint update. Slalom had significant changes relative to 2024 where the initial quotas will be decided by rankings and kayak cross will now have significant quotas being allocated. After adjustment, the following nations lost a quota; Andorra, Chinese Taipei, Ireland, New Zealand, North Macedonia, Slovakia, and Sweden. The following nations gained a quota; Canada, China, France, Italy, South Africa, Spain, and Tunisia. Cricket The Women’s T20 World Cup Qualifier was held. No changes to the projection. Equestrian (Dressage & Jumping) Various World Cup events were held. No changes to the projections were made. Fencing We had two Grand Prix this month, one for epee and the other for sabre. In men’s epee, overtakes . On the women’s side, the United States moved into the top 4 in the team ranking, pushing Estonia down to fifth. This pushed out of Olympic qualification while takes the Americas quota. This caused a downstream effect on the individual side as Ukraine takes an individual quota and Canada relinquishes their quota, additionally, gained a quota while lost one. In men’s sabre, now takes the Asian team quota pushing down to just an individual quota. No changes were found in women’s sabre. Handball Four men’s continental championships were held this month. finished top in Africa while a couple of upsets were saw in South America and Asia where and won over and respectively. Despite their wins, they currently haven’t leapfrogged into being projected to qualify. We’ll see how they perform at the World Championships. Europe saw finish fourth. This was enough to push it into Olympic qualification projection. They pushed out. Rowing The qualification document was released. There was a change in boat allocation relative to 2024 and the continental qualifier was slightly different than what I projected. Additionally, I assumed coastal rowing would allow 2 men and 2 women to compete in its three events, but the max is 1 man and 1 woman. This has caused significant changes to the projections. Overall, the United States lost four quotas. Canada, France, Germany, Ireland, Lithuania, New Zealand, Norway, and Spain lost two quotas and Algeria, Argentina, Croatia, Cuba, Egypt, Kazakhstan, Netherlands, Portugal, Tunisia lost one quota. The following nations have gained two athletes; Japan, Morocco while the following nations gained one athlete; Angola, Austria, Belgium, Chile, Chinese Taipei, Cote d’Ivoire, Denmark, Estonia, Kuwait, Latvia, Mexico, Romania, Philippines, Paraguay, Puerto Rico, South Africa, South Korea, Switzerland, Togo, Uzbekistan, Vanuatu Rugby Sevens Fixing a couple of mistakes. First on the men, actually has the Asian quota over and in the women as is essentially shutting down the program, I think it is only right to remove them until they decide to compete again. This means is also projected to qualify. As for new updates, we saw the third tier SVNS compete, which brought no new updates and the Singapore SVNS. I also didn’t add the Dubai or Cape Town SVNS in my calculations. For both, while there was some shuffling no one ultimately fell out. Shooting The Asian Shotgun Championships were held this month. A few top shooters were missing. The only change to the projection is is set to qualify in women’s trap, pushing out Squash The Tournament of Champions was held this month. Additionally, the qualification document was released. There was some restriction as to how many nations can send two players and this sport will offer universality quotas. The following nations lost an athlete quota; Colombia, France, Great Britain, Hong Kong, Malaysia, and New Zealand. The following nations gained an athlete quota; Canada, Pakistan, Spain (x2), Switzerland, Ukraine Triathlon The qualification document was released. There are a few changes relative to 2024. Projection changes include: Losses to Hong Kong and Slovenia and gains for Austria and China. Weightlifting The qualification document was released. One change to be made was the reallocation process for host nation quotas. Due to this, El Salvador Iraq, Palau, Sri Lanka, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu lost quotas while Australia, China, Dominican Republic, Iran, and Samoa (x2) gained quotas. Wrestling The qualification document was released. There were some significant changes to the qualification process including using the world rankings and the final qualifier only consisting of non-qualified nations. The projection changes are as follows; losses to Belarus, Bulgaria, China, Georgia, Germany, Hungary, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Russia, South Korea, Sweden, and Turkey. Belgium and Lithuania gained 2 quotas while American Samoa, Austria, Estonia, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Latvia, Madagascar, Spain, and Turkmenistan gained 1 quota.

http://i.imgur.com/gLJZbix.jpg Honestly football is just on another level. For other sports, an expanded field or creating multiple host cities likely only works with baseball, cricket and maybe basketball, and only in very specific countries.

It still makes a lot of money, if it isn't the highest it's up there. It also helps that the stadiums are located away from the host city so it has less competition with other sports.

The less politics part essentially confirms my suspicion that both Belarus and Russia will compete under their own flag in 2028. The Refugee Team may be at risk or at the very least the team will be a lot smaller. In terms of sport program, I think the plan is to remove nostalgia from the equation. If an event only has 10-20 active nations then maybe it doesn't belong at the Olympics.

I agree. As these are optional sports brought in by the host nation then they have already agreed to bear the additional cost of hosting. Also one of the biggest draw to include baseball or cricket is that unique nations may qualify in a team sport. With the way cricket is set up we could have a six team tournament of for both genders. Besides India that tournament is basically full of the usual suspects.

Wrestling The process has changed. The World Championships will now qualify 4 athletes in each event. The newly introduced World Rankings will qualify 3 athletes. Afterwards we have the continental qualifiers where two athletes from each tournament (Africa-Oceania, Asia, Europe, Pan America) will qualify. The final quota will be decided at the World Qualifiers where only NOCs which have not qualified may enter with up to two total athletes.

It would have been nice to keep things closer like Portland or Seattle, but I guess if you already have to take a multi-hour flight you might as well go for bigger places.

Weightlifting We now have six events per gender with a total of 10 athletes per event. The Olympic Qualification Rankings will be based on the sum of the total results of five events (three from period 1 and two from period 2). The top 8 will qualify. The 9th spot will also be based on the OQR, but it will go to the highest ranked athlete from an unrepresented continent. The 10th spot will be split between the host and universality (3 each per gender). Should the United States qualify normally then their host quota will be reduced, first going to an athlete from an unrepresented continent then to the overall highest ranked athlete. Additionally, a "Best Lifter" will be awarded which would give the nation the chance to qualify 4 athletes rather than the max of 3.

Triathlon The mixed relay qualification event was removed so the rankings will decide 8 teams. Additionally, the five continents are to be represented in mixed relay provided they are in the top 15. In the individual side, the continental games will qualify the highest ranked nation not yet qualified (New Flag) provided that the athlete ranks in the top 160. This goes along with the "New Flag" rankings we've seen in the past.

Tennis The ranking limit for the ITF Places has increased from 400 to 500. Additionally, Pan America lost one of its ITF Places and it was reallocated to the Pacific Games.

Lacrosse This is a new sport. Here's how the quota breakdown looks like. Host Nation - 1 World Championships - 4 Final Qualifying Tournament - 1 The host nation must participate at the Continental Championships and World Championships in order to get the quota. This will satisfy the continental representation. Additionally only a maximum of 3 nations from a single continent can qualify. The World Championships will be awarded in such a way that all four continental federations are represented (Africa, Asia-Pacific, Europe and Pan America if the United States doesn't get the host nation quota), but only if the team finished in the top 12. Any remaining quotas will be allocated to the highest ranked nation. The Final Qualifying Tournament will consist of the top six nations at the World Championships which failed to qualify (provided no continent qualified three nations already).

Squash This is a new sport here's how the quotas are distributed by gender: Continental Games - 5 Host Nation - 1 World Rankings - 8 Universality - 1 Final Qualification Tournament - 1 Only the top 2 nations (based on the ranking of the second athlete) may enter two athletes. Potentially, a third nation may enter two, but only if there aren't enough eligible athletes in the top 50. The final qualification tournament will consist of the top 24 nations which do not have a quota.

Sport Climbing Speed reduced the World Championship quota down to 1 per gender and increased the Olympic Qualifier Series to 6. Also the Pan American and European qualifiers will take priority over the World Championships because they will occur first. Bouldering and Lead are now separate events and were given additional athlete quotas (taken from Modern Pentathlon) giving them 12 per gender. They follow the same qualification process as Speed, but with the Olympic Qualifier Series offering only 4 quotas. Additionally, athletes qualified in one event may compete in the other provided the NOC doesn't go above two athletes per event. Currently this cross participation doesn't apply to Speed, but I'm not sure it was a mistake or intended. Though not many speed athletes are top lead/bouldering athletes.

Rowing Lightweight double sculls was removed from the program. The 64 athlete quotas were transferred to coastal rowing which I will discuss below. Among the returning event, one boat was added in the single sculls while one boat was removed in the double sculls and pairs. A new feature is that nations may enter in events where they didn't qualify normally using athletes qualified in other events. Six coxswain quotas have been set aside for nations wishing to compete in Eights. For coastal rowing; 17 boats will compete in the men's/women's single sculls while 15 boats will compete in the mixed double sculls. 6 boats in each event will qualify at the World Beach Sprint Finals. The continental qualifiers will award 9 boats in each event (2 for Africa, Asia, Europe, and Pan America, 1 for Oceania). The single sculls will also have a spot for the host nation and a tripartite invitation. Nations can only qualify 1 man and 1 woman (though the athletes can compete in both the single sculls and double sculls events). The quota allocation priority is: 1. Mixed double sculls (World) 2. Mixed double sculls (Continental) 3. Men's/Women's Single Sculls (World) 4. Men's/Women's Single Sculls (Continental)

Rhythmic Gymnastics The 2026-27 World Cup series will be part of the qualification process. This will occur after the 2026 World Champs, but before the 2027 World Champs. The top 2 eligible individuals and top eligible group will qualify. This caused a reduction of quotas available at the 2027 World Championships which now offer 12 individual and 4 group quotas.

Correct

Golf A mixed team event was added. No athlete quotas were allocated to this event and will completely use the field which qualified in the individual event. The top 16 nations (including the host) based on the rankings of their top man and women will qualify. At the actual event, the NOC can select anyone from their pool of golfers to compete.

Yeah, I wasn't too happy to see that rule. The performance of a nation in one event should not prevent it from qualifying in a different event.

Flag Football This is a new sport. Along with the host nation, two nations will qualify at the 2026 World Championships and three will qualify at the 2028 Olympic Qualifier Series. The Olympic Qualifier Series will be a 10 team tournament consisting of two nations from each continent based on their performance at their respective 2027 Continental Championships.

Diving For the individual events, only the top 8 at the World Championships will qualify (2024 was top 12). The continental qualifiers now require 3 eligible nations to compete (as with 2024, only the gold medalist is eligible) and the final qualifier will now be two World Cup stops. Athletes will be ranked based on their best score and whether they advanced to the finals/semifinals. Additionally, if a continent is missing and an athlete has achieved the minimum score at the World Cup then that athlete will qualify. For the synchronized events, only the World Cups will award quotas. 3 at World Cup Stop 1, 3 at World Cup Stop 2 and a final one based on the best score of the two World Cups not yet qualified.

Canoe Sprint There is a now a cap of 5 athletes per gender in the kayak events (down from 6 in 2024). The World Championships has been replaced by the Olympic Qualification Rankings. K2 lost 2 boat quotas while K4 has gained 1 boat quota. Quota distribution is quite complicated as it usually is for canoe sprint. They also force nations to compete in a minimum number of events based on the number of athletes qualified; 2 and 3 athletes per boat class must compete in 2 events, 4 must compete in all 3 events and 5 must compete in all 3 events and have two entries in the K1 event.

Canoe Slalom Quotas from men's/women's K1 have been moved to men's/women's KX1. K1 will now have 14 quotas while KX1 will have 10 quotas. C1 remains at 17 quotas. Athletes may participate in other events up to a maximum of 2 athletes per NOC. The World Championship qualifier has been dropped in favour of the Olympic Qualification Rankings (7 K1, 10 C1, 3 KX1), afterwards you have the Continental Qualifiers (1 per boat) and then a new Global Qualifier (2 per boat). There were a few changes regarding ways to ensure an athlete can only obtain 1 quota. The biggest being at each stage the boat priority is K1 > KX1 > C1 for the rankings and KX1 > K1 > C1 for the continental/global qualifiers. This basically means if the same athlete qualifiers in multiple boats then the quota will be given to the kayak over canoe.