JoshMartini007

I'm attempting to create a medal projector for the 2026 Olympics. Instead of just listing the top 3 favourites I wanted to give a percentage athletes have to win a medal. My first events completed were downhill, here are the top 10. Men's Downhill Athlete Gold Silver Bronze Total Marco Odermatt 17% 14% 10% 41% Franjo Von Allmen 17% 11% 9% 37% Alexis Monney 10% 9% 9% 28% Miha Hrobat 8% 9% 8% 25% Cameron Alexander 7% 9% 7% 23% Vincent Kriechmayr 7% 7% 6% 20% Justin Murisier 6% 7% 6% 19% Dominik Paris 5% 5% 6% 16% Daniel Hemetsberger 5% 4% 5% 14% James Crawford 3% 4% 5% 12% Women's Downhill Athlete Gold Silver Bronze Total Sofia Goggia 27% 15% 12% 54% Ester Ledecka 13% 11% 9% 33% Cornelia Huetter 12% 11% 8% 31% Federica Brignone 11% 12% 11% 34% Lauren Macuga 9% 9% 8% 26% Lara Gut-Behrami 6% 8% 9% 23% Breezy Johnson 5% 7% 7% 19% Corinne Suter 5% 7% 6% 18% Laura Pirovano 2% 3% 5% 10% Marta Bassino 2% 3% 4% 9% In order to prevent my computer from dying I only ran the simulation 1000 times so no tenth of a percentage is listed. For nations with many athletes I just took the four highest ranked athletes as per event rules and removed the rest. Eventually as NOCs announce their teams I can refine it properly. Any surprises?

High respect for . I love that they are expanding their sport repertoire.

Yeah, at this point it would be quite difficult for the IIHF to allow Russia to compete. Bach seems content to let the next IOC president decide how to handle Russia/Belarus so we might get an overall decision (full ban, AIN again or full return) for the 2026 Winter Olympics in the summer. I don't think IIHF is going to delay the decision any more so unless they have some internal memos from the other winter sports organizations preparing to welcome Russia/Belarus back then I figure they will decline Russia's teams.

If they weren't already, Italy is establishing itself as a top 4 European NOC, not that there was a lot of competition. It'd be more interesting to see if they can bridge the gap between themselves and Ireland and Netherlands.

They also predicted a total of 130 gold, 135 silver and 141 bronze medals. The 2026 Winter Olympics only has 116 events

It doesn't help that there are essentially four nations ( ) competing for medals with maybe the likes of being competitive in a few events. Others may get lucky with a bronze due to lack of competition.

It's been impressive seeing Portugal going from not qualifying for 18 years to hanging and beating some of the top nations. Let's see if this becomes more than just a second golden age.

Speaking for myself, it is a bit daunting to think of nominations from nothing. Some kind of "long list" suggestion would be nice, but the work to come up with something like 30-50 options for each category would be quite onerous on the host/committee.

Thank you so much for hosting. Really appreciate it.

While I agree the difference between sex in shooting is minimal any move to create an open event would kill the sport for women. Unlike in equestrian where a significant amount of women compete, shooting will likely return to a very male dominant sport.

Another quarterfinal loss...

Euro 2020 had to deal with COVID and all of its restrictions, but it did showcase that there are diminishing returns for hosting in a large number of cities and in multiple countries. The Olympics are already held outside of the host city for some sports. 2024 had 8 sports held partially or entirely outside of Paris. Is it really that crazy to have those sports clustered together in a second (or maybe third) area?

Yeah, I'm not entirely opposed of different host cities, but 24 hours of sports is not a good idea. Keep it to the 16-18 hour days.

It's a Christmas miracle

Rather than a last minute decision between people who have failed to qualify in the men's/women's team they are taking this event seriously. This time, it might be a bit too early

Team ranking stopped mattering once IWF stopped using them for Olympic qualification (rightfully so). Iran just needs to get with the times

Spain's men's team is off to a great start.

To be fair, GEO and GEQ are pretty close

Michael Del Zotto? Though it looks like he's in the AHL now...

Hopefully they received actual checks too

Reeves won the women's 71kg.

With the IWF cracking down on doping, North Korea was already the second best nation before Covid. The three-year isolation does make things suspicious. Considering the IWF is now testing them every time they compete (given their results), they are probably clean now. The IWF is on such a short leash that a scandal like this may kill the federation so I imagine they are keeping a watchful eye on them.

Comparing results here to the Olympics, they would be at 2G-2S-0B after four events.

Canada should win more gold medals. As for total medals, I think we have a good chance to win more.

Congrats to Peru. Rather than just investing for 2019 and dropping off, the nation continues to invest in sport years after. Now that they have the 2027 Pan American Games it'll be interesting to see what they can do. Can they close the gap between Argentina/Colombia/Cuba?