AlexMunegu59

Cavanagh is retired and didn't even quaify

Fair enough, but that does seem a little conservative. Hope you’re wrong 

Edit: … didn’t even realize Cavanaugh was on there

Seems legit for France, as long as we are not beaten by Italy in our home olympics. It's O-K.

My expectation for the top20 in medal table :
 

Final Qualification summary
 
  Country Projected qualifiers Actual Qualifiers Total qualifiers 1 Australia  0 0 12 2 Uzbekistan 0 1 11 3 Ireland 5 4 10 3 Kazakhstan 2 3 10 3 Brazil 1 0 10 6 Thailand 1 2 8 6 USA 3 2 8 6 China  2 1 8 6 Turkey 2 1 8 6 France 0 0 8 6 Italy 0 0 8 12 India 3 3 6 12 Spain 0 3 6 12 Great Britain and NI 3 1 6 12 Chinese Taipei  1 1 6 16 Azerbaijan 1 2 5 16 Poland 3 2 5 16 Philippines 2 2 5 16 Cuba 2 1 5 16 Bulgaria 0 1 5 16 Colombia 0 0 5 16 Algeria 0 0 5 23 Mexico 1 2 4 24 Ukraine 1 2 3 24 Jordan 1 2 3 24 Belgium 0 1 3 24 Ecuador 0 1 3 24 Nigeria 0 0 3 24 Serbia 1 0 3 24 Hungary 0 0 3 24 Tajikistan 2 0 3 24 Egypt 0 0 3 24 Morocco 0 0 3 34 South Korea 1 2 2 34 Mongolia 2 1 2 34 Sweden 1 1 2 34 Georgia 1 1 2 34 Vietnam 0 1 2 34 DR Congo 0 1 2 34 Dominican Republic 0 1 3 34 North Korea 0 0 2 34 Venezuela 0 0 2 34 Canada 0 0 2 34 Puerto Rico 0 0 2 34 Japan 1 0 2 34 Germany 0 0 2 34 Norway 0 0 2 34 Refugee team  0 0 2 49 Armenia 2 1 1 49 Finland 1 1 1 49 Cape Verde 0 1 1 49 Kyrgyzstan 0 1 1 49 Slovakia 1 1 1 49 Netherlands 1 0 1 49 Romania 0 0 1 49 Croatia 1 0 1 49 Denmark 0 0 1 49 Mozambique 0 0 1 49 Panama 0 0 1 49 Samoa 0 0 1 49 Tunisia 0 0 1 49 Zambia 0 0 1 49 Kosovo 0 0 1 So Uzbekistan secure there status behind Australia's nonsense total with the second largest squad for Paris after Navbakhor Khamidova's  win combined with Martin McDonagh  razor thin loss. Ireland took their time getting there with plenty of ups and downs but ultimately beat their official target of 8 and hit my and probably the squad's unofficial target of 10 although Kelyn Cassidy's  and Martin McDonagh's losses do still sting. Kazakhstan complete their remarkable recovery from their Asian games debacle to join Ireland and Brazil on 10. Thailand take advantage of a home qualifying tournament and the fortunate reallacation of Chinzorig Baatarsukh's  Asian games quota to Bunjong Sinsiri  to set an impressive total of 8. The US had a couple of very big names (Robby Gonzalez , Jamar Talley ) miss out but utimately should be fairly satisfied with their 8 qualifiers. China, Italy, Turkey and France all conclude succesful qualifying campaigns also on 8 qualifiers although France might be a little dissapointed after securing 7 at European Games and having strong squads at both of the world tournaments to not add further to their tally for their home Olympics. Succesful final qualifying tournaments for Spain, Azerbaijan, Chinese Taipei, Poland, Philippines, Mexico, Jordan all wrap up relatively to very succesful qualifying campaigns while India, Ukraine and South Korea somewhat redeem what had been dissapointing ones up to this point. While Cuba have been hurt by the shift towards gender parity missing out in two of the men's weightclasses to end up with just 5 quotas is still a major surprise. While certainly not Cuba it was a major surprise it took Armenia to one of the very last fights to take a quota and that fight could so easily have gone the other way. Japan join them in the major dissapointment category with just 2 quotas failing to kick on after a very succesful Tokyo. Notable countries who miss out entirely include Iran, Argentina, Greece, Czechia, Belarus (although they only competed at one tournament), Moldova, New Zealand, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ghana, South Africa and Kenya.
 
Continental Breakdown
 
  Projected Actual 1st world qualifier Total Europe 24 22 24 46 Asia  19 20 17 37 Americas 8 7 8 15 Africa 0 2 0 2 I do think it is interesting to have a quick look at a continental breakdown given the uneven number of quotas available at the continental qualifiers. Ultimately Europe prevailed at both world qualifiers and justified their additional continental quotas even in Russia's absence. It was good to see 2 African boxers get over the line here as they had suffered the most from less continental quotas being allocated although its hard to argue they deserve more quotas than they were allocated. Unsurprisingly Oceania didn't produce a single qualifier at either of the world qualifying events.
 
My predictions
 
  Correct predictions Percentage  European Games 25/44 56.8% African Qualifying tournament 9/18 50%
Asian Games 18/34 52.9% Pan-American Games 20/30 66.7% Pacific Games 12/13 92.3% First world qualifier 18/49 36.7% Second world qualifers 23/51 45.1% Total 125/239 52.3%  
Well at least I got close to 50% this time around with a couple of mistakes and a few surprise results costing me but I did break 50% for qualification as a whole which while a little dissapointing is fine.
 
The final thing I would say about this tournament is I thought the standard of judging was much improved. After some concerning judging decisions at earlier qualifiers outside of some very close fights which no matter what the decision would have genereated controvversy one way or the other and Thailand getting the typical home advantage the judging was fine and that at least is encouraging for the Olympics. My perception at least was there was much more consensus among judges at this tournament and if they weed out the last few bad judges I really wouldn't be that concerned right now about judging playing a major factor at the Olympics. Refereeing wise there did seem to be an increase accross the board in the number of points deductions dished out but as I explained in great detail at some point in the first world qualifying thread one point deduction basically doesn't matter and there were only 1 or 2 fights in the entire tournament that the final outcome of a fight was actually effected by warnings. 
 
 

it should be...in Tokyo they used the OQR
 
however, there are still 3 Continental Open tournaments that might change the ranking slightly...
 
my analysis was just based on Yesterday's ranking, it's not the definitive one

In 2021 I was very bad at this little game. But I want to be very, veeeery optimistic about in 2024 : I strongly believe in the "home advantage" for this type of event.
 
(I'm stealing your "Day by Day" method )
 
Day 1 Saturday 27 July
Judo : Shirine Boukli (W -48kg) - Luka Mkheidze (M -60kg)
Rugby Sevens : M Team
Skateboarding : Aurélien Giraud (M Street)
 
Day 2 Sunday 28 July
Archery : W Team
Cycling Mountain Bike : Pauline Ferrand-Prévot (W Cross Country)
Fencing : Romain Cannone (M Epee)
Judo : Amandine Buchard (W -52kg)
Shooting : Camille Jedrzejewski (W 10m Air Pistol)
Swimming : Leon Marchand (M 400m Medley)
 
Day 3 Monday 29 July
Canoe Slalom : Nicolas Gestin (M C1)
Equestrian : Eventing Team
Fencing : Sara Balzer (W Sabre) - Enzo Lefort (M Foil)
Shooting : Oceanne Muller (W 10m Air Rifle)
 
Day 4 Tuesday 30 July
Fencing : W Épée Team
Judo : Clarisse Agbegnenou (W -63 kg)
Rugby Sevens : W team
Triathlon : Dorian Coninx (but it could be anyone really) (M Individual)
 
Day 5 Wednesday 31 July
Cycling BMX Freestyle : Anthony Jeanjean (M)
Judo : Marie-Ève Gahié (W -70 kg)
Surfing : Kauli Vaast (M) & Vahine Ferro (W) - maybe I overestimate them, but they are both from Tahiti and know the place like no one else
Swimming : Leon Marchand (M 200m Butterfly + 200m Breaststroke) - Anastasiia Kirpichnikova (W 1500m Freestyle)
 
Day 6 Thursday 1 August
Canoe Slalom : Titouan Castryck (M K1)
Judo : Madeleine Malonga (W -78 kg)
Sailing : Erwan Fischer / Clément Pequin (M 49er)
Swimming : Marwen Tomac (M 200m Backstroke)
 
Day 7 Friday 2 August - I thing our "Super Friday"
BMX : 2 of the French racers (M)
Fencing : M Epee Team
Judo : Romane Dicko (W +78 kg) - Teddy Riner (M +100 kg)
Sailing : Nicolas Goyard (M) - Hélène Noesmoen (W) (IQFoil)
Swimming : Leon Marchand (M 200m Individual Medley)
 
Day 8 Saturday 3 August
Artistic Gymnastics : Coline Devillard (W Vault)
Fencing : W Sabre Team
Judo : Mixed Team
 
Day 9 Sunday 4 August
Fencing : M Team Foil
 
 
Day 10 Monday 5 August
Basketball 3x3 : W Team
Canoe Slalom : Titouan Castryck (M Kayak Cross)
Shooting : Clement Bessaguet (M Rapid Fire Pistol)
Triathlon : Mixed Team
 
Day 11 Tuesday 6 August
No one !
 
Day 12 Wednesday 7 August
Boxing : Sofiane Oumiha (M -63.5 kg)
Cycling Track : W Pursuit Team
Sailing : Camille Lecointre/Jeremie Mion (Mixed Dinghy)
 
Day 13 Thursday 8 August
Athletics : Wilheim Belocian (M 110H) - at least one medal in Athletics please
Boxing : Billal Bennama (-51kg)
Cycling Track : Benjamin Thomas (M Omnium)
Sailing : Lauriane Nolot (W) - Axel Mazella (M) (Kitefoil)
 
Day 14 Friday 9 August
Cycling Track : Clara Copponi/Victoire Berteau (W Madison)
Table Tennis : M Team
Taekwondo : Magda Wiet-Henin (W -67kg)
 
Day 15 Saturday 10 August
Handball : W Team
Taekwondo : Althéa Laurin (W +67kg)
 
Day 16 Sunday 11 August
Handball : M Team
 
Any day
Maybe some more medals in Fencing, or Mélanie de Jesus dos Santos who will have a resurrection, and some surpring medalists. Let's say three more medals.
 
Total prediction (in the very optimistic spectrum)
 
63 Medals, +/- 17 gold medals

Gold Medal Projection 100 days out from Paris
 
Basketball 3x3 : Équipe féminine BMX Racing : Romain Mahieu Boxe : Sofiane Oumiha (-63,5 kg) Cyclisme sur piste : Benjamin Thomas (omnium hommes), Mathilde Gros (sprint dames) Équitation : Concours complet par équipes Escrime : Romain Cannone (épée hommes), Marie-Florence Candassamy (épée dames), épée hommes par équipes, sabre dames par équipes Handball : Équipe masculine, équipe féminine Judo : Luka Mkheidze (-60 kg), Amandine Buchard (-52 kg), Clarisse Agbégnénou (-63 kg), Romane Dicko (+78 kg), Teddy Riner (+100 kg) VTT : Pauline Ferrand-Prévot (cross-country dames) Voile : Lauriane Nolot (Formula Kite dames) Tir : Clément Bessaguet (tir rapide pistolet 25 m hommes) Skateboard : Vincent Milou (street hommes) Natation : Maxime Grousset (100 m papillon hommes), Léon Marchand (200 m 4 nages hommes, 400 m 4 nages hommes) Taekwondo : Magda Wiet-Hénin (57-67 kg), Althéa Laurin (+67 kg) Triathlon : Léo Bergère, relais mixte