OlympicsFan

Of course all of those athletes have a medal chance, it is just EXTREMELY unlikely that all of them win medals at the same time. I would bet you that Poland will be closer to 6 medals than to 10 medals. Saying that Poland can win 10 medals is like saying that Germany can win 11 medals, because Germany has that many medal chances (men's decathlon, 3 x men's javelin, men's 20 km race walking, women's 4 x 100 m relay, women's 5000 m, women's long jump, women's heptathlon, women's shot put, women's javelin throw). In reality i would be happy with 6-8 medals (2 x men's javelin, men's decathlon, women's long jump, women's javelin throw, women's shot put + maybe women's 4 x 100 m relay and/or women's 5000 m). About the women's 4 x 400 m relay: On aggregate Poland is 0.57 seconds faster than GB (not much over 4 legs) and 3.23 seconds/3.73 seconds slower than Jamaica/USA. Unless a miracle happens or one out of Jamaica/USA drops the baton, bronze will be the best possible result for Poland. Even beating GB will be hard enough considering that on average the british relay is 4.25 years younger than the polish relay and therefore is more likely to improve until next year. Here are the 4 fastest polish/british runners in comparison with their birth years: Nielsen 50.83 (1996) vs. Swiety-Ersetic 50.85 (1992) Williams 51.22 (1993) vs. Baumgart-Witan 51.12 (1989) Diamond 51.69 (1991) vs. Kielbasinska 51.51 (1990) Anning 52.18 (2000) vs. Holub-Kowalik 51.87 (1992) Also the 5th and 6th fastest british girls are at 52.18 and 52.21, while the 5th fastest polish girl is at 52.34, so if one of your top 4 gets injured, you will be in trouble. In addition to that there are 2 other nations that are very close to Poland: Russia (if they are allowed to compete) and Canada The top 4 russian girls are at 51.00, 51.25, 51.75 and 51.88, so on aggregate Russia is only 0.53 seconds slower over 4 legs + the 7th fastest russian girl is still at 52.40, while the 5th fastest polish girl is at 52.34, so Russia has clearly more depth. The top 4 canadian girls are at 51.22, 51.56, 51.63 and 51.73, so on aggregate they are only 0.78 seconds slower than the polish girls, while being 5.5 years younger than the polish girls on average. In addition to that the 7th fastest canadian girl is still at 52.43, so Canada also has a clearly better depth than Poland. In my opinion it is pretty clear that the fight for the medals in Tokyo will look like this: Gold/silver: USA and Jamaica (very hard to predict) Bronze: Poland, Russia (if they are allowed to compete), Canada and GB (impossible to predict)

Not sure, why "we" would then be in trouble ... even without men's C2 and men's C1 Germany still has 3 good gold medal chances. Also don't see why Brendel should be too old, when at the same time the polish guy, who is only 1 year younger, just won silver + Brendel won the C1 500 (i believe for the first time ever). The brazilian guy could be hard to beat, but Brendel should easily have everyone else in his pocket. I still would take pretty much any bet that he will at least medal next year. Not sure what happened in men's C2, the two guys shouldn't be too old given that they are 25 and 27 ... this is much more difficult to predict for me, they could be back at the top next year or they could again end up without a medal. I believe it also might be an option to put Brendel in the C2 like they did in 2016, that might increase the german medal chances in that event. Right now i am still optimistic that Germany will win 3+ golds and 5+ medals in total.

10 medals in athletics? Absolutely don't see that happening. 5-6 medals seems realistic. 2 x men's hammer throw, women's hammer throw, men's pole vault + 2 out of shot put (Walsh, the american guy, Romani are all bigger favorites)/women's hammer throw (the chinese girls, the american girls and Tavernier are all bigger favorites for silver/bronze)/men's 800 (super competitive)/men's 1500 (super competitive)/women's 4 x 400 (USA and Jamaica should be clearly better and GB is pretty much on the same level). 4 medals in rowing also seems rather optimistic, but who knows ... ? Why didn't you mention volleyball, shooting, wrestling or track cycling?

You conclude that from one competition? In 2015 Germany won 2 golds on the men's side and no other medals + 2 bronze medals on the women's side, so only 2 more bronze medals than this time and we all know what happened one year later in Rio. I would still bet pretty much everything that Germany will win at least 3 golds and 5-6 medals in total in Tokyo.

Men's single sculls, men's eight, men's lightweight double sculls, women's quadruple sculls.

Very disappointing results for Germany, there is no Other way to put it. Unless Brendel and the mens C2 geht back into shape, 3 Golds could be the best realistically possible result in Tokyo. Womens Canoe and womens kayak are in a horrible state.

I am expecting 4 Golds in Olympic events here, although the men‘s eight doesnt Seem to be in top shape.

I don't really get this strategy, but in the end it probably won't matter. Germany only needs the following athletes to qualify: Lemke Rauhe Liebscher Hoff Rendschmidt Schopf Brendel Oeltze Kretschmer Those guys have a good chance of winning 5 golds in Tokyo and all you have to do to qualify those guys is to win quota places in K2 1000 m, K4 500 m, C2 1000 m and C1 1000 m, the other events are irrelevant from a german perspective. Of course it would be nice if the women's K4 would qualify as well, but Germany has no chance at gold in any women's events, so those are not as important as the men's events. In Tokyo next year the boats should look like this on the men's side: K1 200 m: Liebscher/Rauhe K1 1000 m: Rendschmidt K2 1000 m: Hoff + Schopf K4 500 m: Rauhe + Lemke + Rendschmidt + Liebscher C1 1000 m: Brendel C2 1000 m: Oeltze + Kretschmer

I hope that Megos won't blow another huge opportunity.

Did she receive a score before being disqualified? In case not, what score would have been appropriate in your oppinion (if you watched her ride)?

You really gotta love the humor of our spanish friend ... Spain has half of Cuba competing for them despite those athletes not having any connection to Spain and still our spanish friend finds a reason to complain ... about an athlete, who really hasn't much of a connection to Spain, competing for another country she has a much stronger connection to.

I expect clearly worse results for Germany this year, i would say 2 golds in olympic disciplines at best. I have absolutely no clue why Rendschmidt and Liebscher won't compete in any individual olympic discipline, complete waste of potential.

[hide] Event & Date Athletes Gold Silver Bronze Women's K2 200m ' Australia Belarus Germany Hungary Russia Slovenia South Africa Spain Ukraine Any Other Nation Men's C2 200m Belarus China Hungary Kazakhstan Poland Romania Russia Spain Ukraine Uzbekistan Any Other Nation Women's C1 500m Alena NAZDROVA Yanan MA Johanna HANDRICK Afton FITZHENRY Giada BRAGATO Julia WALCZAK Kseniia KURACH Gabriela LADICOVA Anastasiia CHETVERIKOVA Any Other Athlete Men's K1 500m Thomas GREEN Mikita BORYKAU Tom LIEBSCHER Barry WATKINS Ilya PODPOLNYY Bram BRANDJES Przemyslaw KORSAK Fernando PIMENTA Maxim SPESIVTSEV Ervin HOLPERT Oleh KUKHARYK Any Other Athlete Men's C2 500m China Czech Republic Germany Hungary Poland Romania Russia Spain Ukraine Uzbekistan Any Other Nation Women's K2 1000m Belarus Bulgaria Germany Hungary Mexico Russia Spain Ukraine Any Other Nation Men's K4 1000m Belarus Bulgaria Czech Republic Germany Hungary Russia Slovakia Spain Ukraine United States Any Other Nation Men's C1 200m Artsem KOZYR Zaza NADIRADZE Michael MUELLER Jonatan HAJDU Timur KHAIDAROV Henrikas ZUSTAUTAS Tomasz BARNIAK Helder SILVA Dmitrii SHAROV Alfonso BENAVIDES Any Other Athlete Women's K1 200m Mengdie YIN Emma Aastrand JORGENSEN X Sarah GUYOT Jessica WALKER Lisa CARRINGTON X Marta WALCZYKIEWICZ X Biljana RELIC Ivana MLADKOVA Teresa PORTELA Linnea STENSILS Any Other Athlete Men's K1 200m Maxime BEAUMONT X Badri KAVELASHVILI Liam HEATH Manfredi RIZZA Arturas SEJA X Pawel KACZMAREK Evgenii LUKANTSOV Strahinja STEFANOVIC Carlos GARROTE X Petter MENNING Any Other Athlete Men's C2 1000m China Cuba X France Germany X Italy Poland Russia X Spain Any Other Nation Men's K1 1000m Aleh YURENIA Josef DOSTAL X Rene Holten POULSEN Etienne HUBERT Tamas GECSOE Thomas LUSTY Balint KOPASZ X Rafal ROSOLSKI Fernando PIMENTA X Roi RODRIGUEZ Any Other Swimmer Women's K1 1000m Sarah BRUESSLER Lizzie BROUGHTON Tamara CSIPES Jitta LAAN VAN DER Justyna ISKRZYCKA Svetlana CHERNIGOVSKAYA Mariana PETRUSOVA Eva BARRIOS Anna Maria ZAGORSKA Any Other Athlete Women's C1 200m Alena NAZDROVA X Staniliya STAMENOVA Luqi ZHANG Jana JEZOVA Annika LOSKE Katie REID Dorota BOROWSKA Olesia ROMASENKO X Gabriela LADICOVA Any Other Athlete X Men's C1 500m Angel KODINOV Jiabin XU Joosep KARLSON Thomas SIMART Sebastian BRENDEL Oleg TARNOVSCHI Mikhail KARPOV Matej RUSNAK Pavlo ALTUKHOV Ian ROSS Any Other Athlete Men's K2 500m Czech Republic France Germany Hungary Italy Japan Russia Serbia Spain Ukraine Any Other Nation Women's K2 500m Austria Belarus Belgium France X Germany Hungary X New Zealand X Poland Slovenia Any Other Nation Men's C4 500m Belarus Czech Republic Germany Hungary Poland Romania Russia Spain Ukraine Any Other Nation Women's C2 500m Canada Chile China France Germany Great Britain Hungary X Poland Russia X Ukraine Any Other Nation X Men's K4 500m Australia Canada Czech Republic France Germany X Hungary X Portugal Russia Slovakia Spain X Any Other Nation Women's K4 500m Australia Belarus China France Germany X Hungary X New Zealand X Poland Russia Ukraine Any Other Nation Women's K1 500m Volha KHUDZENKA X Emma Aastrand JORGENSEN Pauliina POLET Manon HOSTENS Danuta KOZAK X Lisa CARRINGTON X Svetlana CHERNIGOVSKAYA Milica STAROVIC Ivana MLADKOVA Linnea STENSILS Any Other Athlete Men's K2 1000m Australia Czech Republic Denmark France Germany X Hungary Lithuania Russia Serbia X Slovakia Spain X Any Other Nation Men's C1 1000m Maksim PIATROU Isaquias QUEIROZ DOS SANTOS X Mark William OLDERSHAW Jose Ramon PELIER CORDOVA X Martin FUKSA X Adrien BART Sebastian BRENDEL Carlo TACCHINI Tomasz KACZOR Matej RUSNAK Any Other Athlete Men's K2 200m Czech Republic France Germany Great Britain Hungary Poland Russia Spain Any Other Nation Womens's C2 200m Belarus China Hungary Moldova Poland Russia Ukraine Uzbekistan Any Other Nation Women's C1 5000m Bernadette WALLACE Volha KLIMAVA Maria MAILLIARD Yajue ZHANG Annika LOSKE Zsanett LAKATOS Maria CORBERA Ann Marie ARMSTRONG Any Other Athlete Men's C1 5000m Joosep KARLSON Sebastian BRENDEL Balazs ADOLF Carlo TACCHINI Aivis TINTS Rigoberto CAMILO Mateusz KAMINSKI Manuel Antonio CAMPOS Any Other Athlete Women's K1 5000m Alyssa BULL Maryna LITVINCHUK Tabea MEDERT Lizzie BROUGHTON Dora BODONYI Jennifer EGAN Kristina BEDEC Mariana PETRUSOVA Inna HRYSHCHUN Any Other Athlete Men's K1 5000m Artuur PETERS Rene Holten POULSEN Max HOFF Balint NOE Eivind VOLD Fernando PIMENTA Francisco CUBELOS Joakim LINDBERG Any Other Athlete [/hide]

Some additions: 1) Russia also did it in the bronze final 2) Germany won and now owns the junior world record

France set a new junior world record in men's team pursuit, Germany was also faster than the old world record. Germany lost women's team sprint for the first time in ages while Italy continues their dominance in women's team pursuit. In men's team sprint Germany was embarrassing once again. India won the gold medal in that event but i don't see them translating this success to senior level.

Quite interesting that the japanese head coach is from Germany ...

If he won't be cut ... which sadly won't happen ... My roster of 12 would have been: Schröder (25, Oklahoma City Thunder) Lo (26, Bayern Munich) Bonga (19, Washington Wizards) Zipser (25, Bayern Munich) Giffey (28, Alba Berlin) Theis (26, Boston Celtics) Barthel (27, Bayern Munich) Kleber (27, Dallas Mavericks) Wagner (22, Washington Wizards) Thiemann (25, Alba Berlin) Voigtmann (26, CSKA Moscow) Hartenstein (21, Houston Rockets) Then the oldest player would have been Giffey with 28 and the average age would have been 24.75

Agree, it is ultra embarrassing, they are acting as if Canada would have been a lock for a medal despite never having done anything important at senior level ... Serbia will be with their best teams, Germany, Turkey and Greece too and as far as i know the same will be true for Lithuania, France and maybe Spain. I think of the top 10 teams in the world only USA and Canada will miss multiple top players while Australia will only miss one players as far as i know. USA will still win gold probably and Serbia, Greece and France will be the favorites for the other 2 medals. The only nation that will really suffer due to the absence of one of their best players will be Australia in my opinion, with Simmons they would have been one of the favorites for a medal too. Canada never would have been a favorite for a medal and the same is true for all other nations.

Most nations are here with their best players, only the US is missing tons of players + Canada, but even at their full strength Canada wouldn't have been favorite for a medal. In ice hockey the absence of players has a big influence on the final result, but in basketball that probably won't be the case. USA will still win and Serbia will probably win silver like they always do even if all the best teams compete.

How can you know something that lies in the future and isn't under your influence?

Why? USA is missing tons of players but apart from that most of the best players are here except for Simmons. It's not as if Canada has any stars, even with everyone participating Canada would have been an outsider for a medal considering that no canadian player even remotely has the quality of Giannis or Jokic.

The australian best team is without Simmons?

I wonder why you didn't include the current world champion Liu Tingting?

Doesn't her new floor element already exist for men? If that is the case, then why would it be named after her? I don't get why the same element for men and women would have two different names ...

I am pretty confident she will lose at least one out of balance beam and uneven bars. Would be bad for gymnastics if she would win all golds.