I think USA can still win it, but it will be close. USA still has gold medal chances in men's 50/100 fly, men's 500/100 free, men's 50/100/200 back, men's 200/400 IM, men's medley relay, men's 800 free relay, both mixed relays, women's 50/100/200/800/1500 free, women's 50/100/200 breast, women's 50/100/200 back, women's 200 fly, women's medley relay and women's 800 free relay. China still has gold medal chances in men's 200 free, men's 50/100/200 back, men's 200 IM and maybe women's 200 breast + women's 800 free relay. I would say USA ends up at 16 golds at best and then we will have to wait what China will do. Right now i would give China the edge, because i think that they could very well win 3 more golds on the men's side, but if it comes to a tie in gold medals, then the US will probably win.