OlympicsFan

It certainly looks as if this is a weaker generation of 400 IM talents, especially from Europe, but: 1) I am sure that some japanese/chinese/canadian/american girls will swim sub 4:40 at the junior world championships, so Crevar will have to perform at her very best if she wants to win a medal. 2) I dont think that a russian girl will come out of nowhere at the european junior championships, so Crevar could very well be the favorite, but i think some british or italian girls will be able to swim close to 4:40 by then + dont forget about Julia Mrozinski (4:42 last year, lets see what she can do at the german nationals this week). 3) Womens 400 IM in general seems to be one of the weaker events + the junior world record doesnt seem as crazy fast as some of the other junior world records + the winning times at junior world championships/youth olympics are normally not that fast either + Russia/China (who often have crazy talents), are normally not that good in womens 200/400 IM, which is certainly one of the reasons why it is easier to win a medal at junior level in this event, compared to some other events (for example womens 100 fly). 4) If you only look at the girls who are 1 year older (born in 1999), then you find a couple of very fast times: 4:36.60 for Harvey from Canada 4:37.25 for Wood from GB So Crevar will need to drop a lot of time during the rest of the year and the beginning of next year, if she wants to keep up with those girls. If you change the date range to 1/1/2016 to 12/31/2017, you can see that some girls born in 2000 had some really fast times last year and probably just didnt taper so far this year, so you can expect some of them to still improve this year (here are all the girls born in 2000, who had a time of sub 4:43 last year and might improve their times later on this year): Runa Imai: 4:41.52 Anna Pirovano: 4:42.06 Julia Mrozinski: 4:42.39 Ajna Kesely: 4:42.53 I think Kesely will focus on 200/400 + maybe 800 free and i am not optimistic about Mrozinski, but i am pretty sure that at least one out of Pirovano/Imai will swim sub 4:40 later on this year. Is Crevar still 16 years old or did she already turn 17? If she is still 16, she would be 8th in the american all-time ranking for 15/16 year olds and if she already turned 17, she would be 18th in the american all-time ranking for 17/18 year olds. By the way: It is really fun to "play" with the junior world rankings and for example look at the world rankings only for girls born in 2002 or later.

I think you are exaggerating a bit, although the following athletes won medals in 2015 and are now world class: Kipyegon Bett (won silver in mens 800m) Armand Duplantis (won gold in mens pole vault) Sydney McLaughlin (won gold in womens 400m hurdles) Celliphine Chespol (won gold in womens 2000m SC) The following athletes won a medal at youth world championships and also an individual medal at olympic games: Kitum (won bronze in mens 800m at the 2011 edition and bronze in London in 2012) Kipruto (won gold in mens 3000m SC at the 2011 edition and gold in Rio in 2016) Miller (won gold in womens 400m at the 2011 edition and gold in Rio in 2016) Kipyegon (won gold in womens 1500m at the 2011 edition and gold in Rio in 2016) James (won gold in mens 200/400m at the 2009 edition and also gold in London in 2012) Crouser (won gold in mens shot put and silver in mens discus throw at the 2009 edition and also gold in Rio in 2016) Mayer (won gold in mens octathlon at the 2009 edition and also silver in Rio in 2016) Taylor (won gold in mens triple jump and bronze in mens long jump at the 2007 edition and he also won gold in mens triple jump in London/Rio in 2012/2016) Storl (won gold in mens shot put at the 2007 edition and also silver in London in 2012) Muhammad (won gold in womens 400m hurdles at the 2007 edition and also gold in Rio in 2016) Stefanidi (won gold in womens pole vault at the 2005 edition and bronze at the 2007 edition and also gold in Rio in 2016) Spanovic (won silver in womens long jump at the 2007 edition and bronze in Rio in 2016) Perkovic (won silver in womens discus throw at the 2007 edition and also gold in London/Rio in 2012/2016) Mutai (won gold in mens 3000m SC at the 2005 edition and also bronze in London in 2012) Chernova (won gold in womens heptathlon at the 2005 edition and also bronze in Beijing/London in 2008/2012) Krauchanka (won silver in mens octathlon at the 2003 edition and also silver in Beijing in 2008) Richardson (won gold in mens 110/400m hurdles at the 2003 edition and silver in mens 110m hurdles in London in 2012) T. Bekele (won silver in mens 3000m at the 2003 edition and bronze in mens 10000m in London in 2012) Bolt (won gold in mens 200m at the 2003 edition and many gold medals at the 2008/2012/2016 olympic games) Hejnova (won gold in womens 400m hurdles at the 2003 edition and also bronze in London in 2012) Pearson (won gold in womens 100m hurdles at the 2003 edition and silver/gold in Beijing/London in 2008/2012) Shkolina (won silver in womens high jump at the 2003 edition and bronze in London in 2012) Kipruto (won silver in mens 3000m SC at the 2001 edition and silver/gold in Athens/Beijing in 2004/2008) Harting (won silver in mens discus throw at the 2001 edition and gold in London in 2012) Felix (won gold in womens 100m at the 2001 edition and later on she for example won gold in womens 200m in London in 2012) Stewart (won silver in womens 100m at the 2001 edition and silver in womens 100m in Beijing in 2008) Adams (won gold in womens shot put at the 2001 edition and gold in London in 2012) Carter (won silver in womens shot put at the 2001 edition and gold in Rio in 2016) Pishchalnikova (won silver in womens discus at the 2001 edition and silver in London in 2012) K. Bekele (won silver in mens 3000m at the 1999 edition and later on he won 3 gold medals at olympic games) Pars (won gold in mens hammer throw at the 1999 edition and also gold in London in 2012) Kibet (won silver in womens 3000m at the 1999 edition and bronze in womens 5000m at the 2008 olympics) Campbell-Brown (won gold in womens 100m at the 1999 edition and gold in womens 200m at the 2004/2008 olympics) Walker (won silver in womens 200m at the 1999 edition and gold in womens 400m hurdles at the 2008 olympics) Graffor (won silver in womens hammer throw at the 1999 edition and bronze at the 2004 olympics) Defar (won silver in womens 3000m at the 1999 edition and gold in womens 5000m at the 2004/2012 olympics) Chicherova (won gold in womens high jump at the 1999 edition and gold at the 2012 olympics) Isinbayeva (won gold in womens pole vault at the 1999 edition and gold at the 2004/2008 olympics) Skolimowska (won gold in womens hammer throw at the 1999 edition and gold at the 2000 olympics) Cheruiyot (won bronze in womens 3000m at the 1999 edition and later on she for example won gold in womens 5000m at the 2016 olympics) Mikhnevich (won silver in womens shot put at the 1999 edition and silver at the 2008 olympics) So at 9 editions "only" 41 athletes, who later also won a medal at olympic games, won a medal. At those 9 editions we had over 800 different individual medallists, but only about 5% of them later on won a medal at olympic games. Of course i probably missed some (and i didnt include athletes who won only relay medals), but i think this still shows that you cant say that most of them will be olympic champions or even medallists in the future. Note: Kim Brennan from Australia won silver in womens 400m hurdles at the 2001 edition and at the 2016 olympic games she won gold in womens single sculls (rowing)!

I think Germany will also compete and Germany is one of the best nations in athletics ... I think we will still see a high level of competition, in all middle/long-distance events the best athletes come from Africa anyway and i think that the level of competition in some field events also will be pretty good. Japan, China and South Africa always have some good talents there too. We will also have the european under 20 championships this year, so except for some american athletes, everyone will get a chance to shine at the international stage this year. Preview (30 days to go): https://www.iaaf.org/news/press-release/iaaf-world-u18-championships-nairobi-2017-30 South African roster: https://www.iaaf.org/news/news/world-u18-nairobi-2017-south-african-team The stars are Zazini Sokhwakhana (who leads the 400m hurdles world ranking with a time of 48.84s, the second best athlete this year has a SB of 51.44s , he is also 4th in the 400m world rankings with a time of 46.20s only behind 3 american athletes), Ntuthuko Ndimande (who leads the 800m world rankings with a time of 1:49.69), Breyton Poole (who is first in the high jump world rankings with 2.18m), Julian Bogner (who is 4th in the 110m hurdles world rankings and 3rd in the long jump world rankings ), Robert de Villiers (who is first in the 2000m SC, an other south african athlete is 2nd in the same event) and Zeney van der Walt (who is 2nd in the 400m hurdles world rankings). From an international perspective, the most promising talents should be: Marisleisys Duarthe (Cuba) in womens javelin throw Yaroslava Mahuchikh (Ukraine) in womens high jump Heather Arneton (France) in womens long/triple jump Britany Anderson (Jamaica) in womens 100m hurdles Keely Small (Australia) in womens 800/1500 m Tamari Davis (USA) in womens 200m Maikel Vidal (Cuba) in mens long jump Jordan Diaz (Cuba) in mens triple jump De'Jour Russell (Jamaica) in mens 110m hurdles Zazini Sokhwakhana (South Africa) in mens 400m hurdles Jakob Ingebrigtsen (Norway) in mens 1500m Tyrese Cooper (USA) in mens 200/400m Let's hope that many of them will decide to compete. I noticed that South African seems to have a lot of talents in events where they normally arent very good (mens 2000m SC, mens 800m) and its also surprising to see that Norway could very well win 2-3 gold medals (if they decide to compete).

German 200/400 free "star" Florian Vogel announced his retirement on Friday, at the age of 22 ... Sadly i have to say that you have to be pretty crazy to train multiple hours a day as a german swimmer, because you will have a clear disadvantage in your career later on and you basically don't earn anything, so this is probably a smart decision, but a huge blow for german swimming, considering that he was by far the best german 200/400 free swimmer. Now the situation in men's 200/400 free seems to be pretty hopeless without Vogel and Biedermann.

You seem to be one of the very few users here who are interested in swimming outside of world championships/olympics, so you might have a use for it: https://www.usaswimming.org/Home/times/data-hub (Here you can find world rankings by age/date of birth) For example Steenbergen is currently 5th in the 50 free world rankings of all girls born in 2000 or later (0.03 behind Anderson), 3rd in the 100 free (only behind Ikee and Oleksiak) and 5th in the 200 free (behind Ikee and 3 chinese girls, but Ruck and Oleksiak should also be able to go faster). BTW: Have a look at the womens 100 free world rankings for girls born in 2000 or later ... the depth of the canadian girls is crazy (53.84 Oleksiak, 54.62 Sanchez, 54.97 Smith, 55.03 Ruck), if they all compete at the junior world championships, then they should absolutely destroy the junior world record in the 400 free relay and i think only Canada might be able to challenge Australia in 2020. I probably agree about Anderson beating her in the 100 free, but the 50 free might be a different story and Gose improved her PB to 1:59.12 this year without even having tapered, so you would expect that she is able to go a lot faster at the german nationals next week, hopefully at least sub 1:58 (which would be a great time for a 14 year old). Last year she dropped 1.6s at the german nationals.

How is she the huge favorite? Did Kesely decide to not compete? And what about Anderson (100 free) and Gose (200 free)?

Overall the line-ups for tomorrow's diamond league in Rome are pretty weak, but women's 5000 m could be really fun. Personally i am pretty excited for women's 1500 m, it is the first time Konstanze Klosterhalfen competes in the diamond league and many think that she is ready to run sub 4 (after her 14:51 5k and 1:59 800 m solo runs earlier this year). Sadly Kipyegon and Muir withdrew, so Hassan might be the only one able to run sub 4 and i doubt that she will be willing to make the pace for Klosterhalfen, so it seems pretty unlikely that it will be a sub 4 pace and instead more of a tactical race with a winning time somewhere between 4:00 and 4:02.

You mean like Serena Williams? She is 4th in the live rankings and hasn't played since the Australian Open, so we could as well assume that she didn't train (much) since then, but she is still top 5 ... I understand your "intention", but you don't seem to understand how the world ranking works ...

Good result, finally some new player in the semifinal, hopefully Rafa will stop him. If Zverev continues his steady rise, then this might be as easy as it gets for Thiem. In a couple of years Felix and Kuhn might become the new favorites at Roland Garros.

My ranking would have been: 1) Bulgaria 2) Azerbaijan 3) Portugal 4) Moldova 5) Belgium 6) Sweden 7) Romania 8) Hungary 9) Croatia 10) UK Moldova, Romania and Sweden had a great choreography, but not the most talent or the best vocals, so it's good that they didn't win. I expected this to be between Bulgaria, Belgium and Portugal, but Belgium was pretty disappointing live, so it's good that Blanche didn't win. Azerbaijan also would have deserved to win, but i guess it was clear that politics would make that impossible. Here is a funny video, where american people react to Eurovision and especially the top 5, they also give their own ranking: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aLCWQEQ8SpM

Heartbreaking loss for Dima, he never got into his best shape during this tournament. Koki Niwa on the other hand played his best table tennis, japanese table tennis is really taking huge steps forward. Maybe Boll can somehow keep the german colors alive during this tournament ... In the end everyone who isnt chinese is playing for bronze at best, so no reason to be too sad, Boll and Ovtcharov have won tons of minor medals before. Tomokazu winning a medal is my only wish left, would be so cool to see (the half-chinese japanese player) Tomokazu beating a chinese player. Chinese players and officials are probably already shivering when thinking about the future, this might be their last chance for a very long time to win an individual gold medal on the mens side.

Amazing match between Dima and Koki Niwa, matche will be decided in game 7. Incredibly close match.

I am absolutely not surprised by what Tomokazu is doing here, i already called it last year: http://totallympics.com/index.php?/topic/263-table-tennis-at-the-summer-olympic-games-2016/&page=1 I think there is at least a 50% chance that he will win gold at the 2020 olympics, right now he has to be considered the favorite for 2020. By next year at the latest he will be the best non-chinese player. I know that table tennis isnt among the most popular sports, but we should all take a second to understand what we are currently witnessing, something like that has never been done before and Tomokazu is setting all those records in the most competitive era of table tennis, he certainly is a once in a century talent. The team competition should still go to china, although it could get very tricky, if Tomokazu becomes dominant enough to win both his individual matches. On the womens side the japanese team seems more promising but i would also say that an individual gold is less likely. Overall Japan is currently in a very good spot for 2020, considering that athletes like Abdul Hakim Sani Brown, Rikako Ikee, Nao Horomura, Suzuka Hasegawa, Kenzo Shirai, Mima Ito or Tomokazu Harimoto pretty much guarantee them 10 medals or even more. Japan is going to be very strong in swimming, artistic gymnastics and table tennis + i expect them to "make a move" in diving, fencing, archery/shooting and maybe also badminton/boxing/taekwondo, of course they will also win tons of medals in judo and wrestling.

1) It's still extremely early in the season, last year Hruba (born in 1998) and Sukh (born in 1999) jumped 1.93 and 1.92, maybe they will go even higher this year. 2) Ukraine had many very young girls in the last couple of years jumping around 1.90 and none of them became really big, so let's see 3) According to IAAF she is 15 https://www.iaaf.org/athletes/ukraine/yaroslava-mahuchikh-310529 So who is more trustworthy? 4) She is shared 21st on the all time U18 list and has until the end of 2018 to improve. Some interesting comparisons: Kostadinova also jumped 1.90 as an U18 athlete, Kuchina and Cloete jumped 1.91, Meyfarth jumped 1.92 as a 16 yo, Vlasic and Astafei jumped 1.93, Lake and Cunningham jumped 1.94.

Again a great observation! I feel like you are one of the very few here who understood this contest, which is why you should be part of the legendary committee. For example the lithuanian song was like a really bad imitation, on the other hand the song from New Zealand was very original and should have placed higher. I only look for the "honesty" of songs when i have to distribute my points and the lithuanian song for example didn't seem very honest, i had the feeling that the artist just wanted to make a popular song, without putting much personality into it.

I just noticed that Zedd co-produced your song. I might have given you more points if i would have known that earlier, although i don't like the song. Maybe next time i will also pick a song by Zedd ... ? https://youtu.be/L8eRzOYhLuw https://youtu.be/IxxstCcJlsc https://youtu.be/X46t8ZFqUB4 https://youtu.be/h--P8HzYZ74 If you pick "HUMBLE." by Kendrick Lamar for the next contest, i can guarantee you, that you will get 12 points from me.

GB/Ireland shouldn't be allowed to nominate english songs, it's as simple as that, all problems solved.

You mean the contest or the committee ... or both? If you would try to tell me your secrets, i probably wouldn't understand them anyway ... so it's probably for the better if you guys keep them to yourselves.

Yeah, the good old inception ... i already started to wonder what Leonard Di Caprio was doing in his free time, besides saving our planet by slowing down climate change ...

If not even the members know what is happening in there, then the committee itself is senseless. It is clearly a discriminatory organization and in addition to that there are are obvious flaws, for example : If in the past some other user from your country was responsible for the voting and failed to give points to the eventual winner, then you won't be able to become part of the committee, even if you yourself always gave points to the eventual winner ... right?

Adel Tawil is a horrible singer in my opinion, i guess you just have to wait and see what i got for you at the next contest.

Aren't you part of the committee? If yes, then it would only be logical for you to try to discredit me. If no, then you can have no clue about what is really going on up there, they probably secretly influenced us all, so that GB would win, meaning that they would be allowed to keep their seat in the committee.

I hope that other users will follow my example, this elitist behavior has to stop. The committee needs some fresh (female) blood. If bestmen doesn't become part of the committee, germany won't participate at the next contest.

Never heard of him ... I made an agreement with catgamer that i will be allowed to pick the german entry for the next contest, because he picked the german entry this time and i absolutely didn't like it. Now i at least know that i won't pick Holger Czukay, because that would now be boring. I wonder if any country ever finished a TSC without any points? If not, then challenge accepted ... see you at the next contest.