Very early thoughts, surely all wrong.
Aquatics
Swimming - sth similar to Paris, depending on how many relays we get - 22
Open water swimming - 1 man
Diving - 2 men, maybe even synchro men's event but i'm very optimistic here
Water Polo - 0
Artistic swimming - 0
Archery - 1
Athletics - slightly less than in Paris i'm afraid, again depending on relays - 55
Badminton - 0
Basketball 3x3 - with 12 teams per gender i'm optimistic here, both teams will qualify - 8
Basketball - let me have a big fun here and imagine our Men's Team will be there, Czech Team showed us how to do it in Tokyo, just follow their steps - 12
Boxing - women's team may be quite strong - i say 4 women and 1 men - 5
Canoe Sprint - sth like Paris, maybe slightly less - 11 (but hoping for a first gold for Poland in this sport, women's kayak events are our chances)
Canoe Slalom - 1 woman, 2 men like in Paris - 3
Cycling
BMX Freestyle - 0
BMX Racing - 0
Mountain Bike - 1 man, 1 woman - 2
Road - without Kwiatkowski and Majka this will be hard times for our men's team but i believe K. Niewiadoma will be strong in LA - 1 man and 3 women - 4
Track - with men's team sprint this time I say more people than in Paris - 9
Equestrian - i don't think it will be 3 teams like in Paris (it depends a lot on whether Russia/Belarus can participate in our zonal qualifications or not), i say 2 teams and 1 ind - 7
Fencing - 3 teams like in Paris and 1 individual - 13 (including reserve athletes)
Football - with only 12 teams in men's tournament - 0
Golf - 1 man
Gymnastics
Artistic - 1 woman somehow
Rhythmic - 1 woman rather sure, no drama like Lewińska story before Paris this time. And i think there's a chance for a team as well - 6
Trampoline - 0
Handball - i don't know why but i believe W team will make it after last minute goal win in the decisive match - 14
Hockey - 0
Judo - one more than Paris - 5
Modern Pentathlon - full squad - 4
Rowing - we had a very small team in Paris, it will be better this time - 14
Rowing Coastal Beach Sprints - no idea, honestly - 0
Rugby Sevens - 0
Sailing - sth like Paris - 10
Shooting - sth like Paris - 7
Skateboarding - 0
Sport Climbing - 2 women in speed event - 2 (and two-in-a-row for Ola Mirosław, our one and only gold medalist in Paris, i do hope it will be at least 2 or 3 golds in LA!)
Surfing - 0
Table Tennis - i think both teams M and W will qualify this time - 6
Taekwondo - 1 somehow
Tennis - 4 women, 2 men - and a redemption for Iga after Paris (gold please!), also a chance in Mixed Doubles for her but whatever... this is not that important event for me, i know she wants that singles gold so much, she said in Wimbledon-interview she would give up some grand slam wins for that
Triathlon - 1 man, 1 woman - 2
Beach Volleyball - 1 M pair, 1 W pair - 4
Volleyball - both our teams will qualify with Men's Team with a big chance for gold, they went through quarters in Paris finally, so it may be easier for them this time - 24 (plus some reserves)
Weightlifting - like Paris - 1
Wrestling
Greco-Roman - like Paris - 1
Freestyle - like Paris - 4
Cricket - 0
Flag Football - 0
Baseball - 0
Softball - 0
Lacrosse - 0
Squash - 0 (in general we are not familiar with these new LA sports), and with majority of new (young and urban) sports as well - 3x3 basket and speed sport climbing are the only exceptions
So if we add it all it's 268 if i did my maths well (but 3 fencing reserves included), which is obviously way too much, i'm hyper-optimistic here for sure
In reality it will be more or less like in previous games:
Paris - 218
Tokyo - 210
Rio - 243
London - 217
In Beijing we had exactly 268 LOL, but we had 3 team sports (M handball was strong back then, how on earth could they decline so rapidly???)
So - as everyone knows, no surprise here - it all depends on how many team sports will make it and if Russia performs in all / some / none sports.
And:
1. a large majority of new sports which are not familiar to us
2. with smaller quota in some old sports
is not a good thing for our quota chances ofc.
But if 268 is optimistic i would say 220 is somehow real (but i would give up 20 quotas for Men's Basket 5x5 heh)
Waiting for other nations predictions with big interest!!!