RussB

Hard to precise the time's given the importance of the track dynamics etc, but New Zealand set a 4m 10 in Adelaide (R1 of nations cup), which was matched by GBR in Milton (R3). The Italians have gone a 4m 16.6 in Milton [Balsano, Consonni, Fidanza, Guazzini]. Unless there are significant additional changes to be brought into the lineup, that is a huge gap to close in such a timeframe. from 2023 worlds, Italy went a 4m 11.3 (2 secs behind GBR, and 1.1 second behind NZ), so yes NZ for me are the clear favs.

Italy are quite big underdogs against New Zealand in the women’s pursuit. mens team pursuit is very competitive between the big 3 - I’d have GB marginal favs given form this year.

I very much doubt that. On another look at the schedule, it’s quite kind to the female endurance riders with the women’s Omnium on the last day and the Madison directly in between that and the TP. If Neah is on form (and she has really impressed me in the nations cups this year) then that might be the direction GBR take.

New Zealand’s only issue I think to a high medal haul is that Gate and Wollaston are going to have such a high workload with the multiple rounds of team pursuit, the Omnium and then the Madison. But yep the team should do very nicely! In terms of medals I have them finishing above Netherlands…it’s not hugely unlikely to me they finish 2nd in terms of overall medal count.

Not sure how I’ve underestimated them: I said I expect them to win 2 golds in women’s team pursuit and Omnium (plus the men’s Madison is wide open and could frankly go in any direction, including NZ). A variety of silver/bronzes in the other events you mention too would seem like a fair prediction.

I'm not sure where Belgium are winning two golds, Kopecky I think is likely to come up short vs Wollaston in the Omnium, and the madison vs Evans and Barker. New Zealand are likely to win 2 gold (Women's team pursuit), NED I have with 2 gold (both from Harry), Aus 1 (men's team sprint). Italy will be a challenge for GBR in the men's team pursuit (also Denmark). Emma F could well sweep the 3 women's sprint events I think, with Germany providing most strong opposition in all 3. Men's endurance side is harder to predict, the men's omnium is always close [chances for NZ I assume with Gate, France with Thomas and Hayter for GBR, Viviani with Italy with an outsiders chance], and men's Madison is open [GBR with Tarling and possibly Vernon could be tough].

I assume the 4 will be Knight Morris Evans Barker...still don't know what they plan to do with Zoe B but it doesn't appear she will be doubling up on track and road like Tarling. Evans and Barker ride the Madison...as for the Omnium I have no idea. Can't expect Neah to ride all 3 events without rest.

Brits should top the medal table despite Katie's tragic injury news; Gold medal hopes = Women's team sprint, women's sprint, women's keirin, mens team pursuit, men's omnium, women's madison, (possibly men's madison too but lineups havent been confirmed so its hard to predict). the loss of Archibald probably dooms the W omnium and W team pursuit gold medal hopes.

I’ll add my thanks to Rafa for his input cross sport. The efforts are appreciated!

Just sickening news. Urgh. I had Wollaston as fav in the omnium anyway but that kills off the gold chances in those two events. Evans and Barker were always my gold medal favs for the Madison so that remains unchanged. anyway, will go away to punch a wall. 🤣

Golds for GB look like they come down to a very high shot with men’s 4x2, 50/50 shots with peaty and proud. good chance with Richards or Scott in the 200m (maybe not quite a 50% chance of a gold). I’ve gone bullish on all those 4 coming in but things can go the other way and despite medals may mean a less impressive haul. Good thing GB has going is that the squad is strong so they could be right there for a shock gold or 2 if a fav for whatever reason doesn’t perform at the games or there is a relay f* up.

We share the same opinion on Bryson not being at world finals. I also think you have to take Kate French.

Love the optimism regarding GBR, I’m a little less bullish. 3 swimmers - Wiffen, Summer, Duncan Scott shock - Freya Colbert wins an individual medal in the 400 IM with a big PB in the v low 4 30s. Men’s 4x200m WR is smashed. GBR: 4 golds, 5 silvers, 3 bronze golds: Proud (50m), Richards (200m free) Peaty (100m br), men’s 4x200 silver: Scott (200m free), mixed 4x100m relay, Morgan (100m back), men’s 4x100 free, Scott (200IM) bronze: Colbert (400IM), Evans (100m breast), max litchfield (400IM)

Sorry I’m not aware. My question was also indirectly asking if she can honestly be expected to have medal chances? Not aware of shooting whether a return to the top could be expected in such a short build to the games

Can I just ask those more knowledgeable than me what is the status of Amber Rutter? Aware she had a baby in April but still intended to go to Paris in the skeet ?

Yeah I honestly don’t know which way they go. They seem to each have a golden performance which can’t then be followed up in subsequent world cups. Bryson to me will get the nod, her fence ( which is so vital in MP) looks far more reliable. Having said that Varley had a podium finish recently.

Correct. Olivia Green looks like she has fallen down the pecking order (behind French, Bryson and Varley, possibly Whitaker too)

Seems like a very harsh call on Sophie. They both had a fair chance to prove who right now is the better athlete and that was Sophie. Maybe they feel they don’t need 3 bullets with GTB back to health and Beth being Beth, and rather can focus on the future. it will be a good experience for Kate and hopefully she can mix it with the front group!

Dutch could get a really solid gold count (pushing towards 10) from rowing and track/ road cycling… but will leave it to more familiar users on sports beyond these two.

They can both win medals and we can all feel justified in our opinions 😅

Ah you mentioned Budapest - sorry my mind is still stuck in Rome 👍 my general point I suppose is the same, can IRL really allow her to run a controlled leg by putting her on anchor and doing enough to qualify… I feel like she would still likely have to go almost full gas to drag them into a qualifying position.

The issue with this strategy IRL have is Rhasidat will not be getting the baton in the lead in Paris if they put her on anchor (would be my strong gut feeling), unlike Bol in Budapest at the European level who could moderate things easily from the front. The Olympics will be a step up and IRL position near the front depends on her running the second leg.

The big issue with the mixed relay is twofold: (i) it is held at the start of the programme before the individuals, and the final is the day after the heat. (ii) you can only make 1 substitution for the final. its almost impossible to predict what teams can make the final with resting at least 1 of their best 4, too much uncertainty over the lineups of the other nations. Medals are up for grabs for those that want to claim them at the expense of having a fully rested headliners in the individual side (particularly hurtful on the men’s side which starts a day after the mixed final, the women have 1 more day of rest). All competing nations I expect to rest their number 1 given the schedule in the heat (especially if that’s on the male side) but beyond that it gets really confusing. It wouldn’t surprise me if the GB team looks something like: Carvell Yeargin, La. Nielsen and Harries with Dobson possibly brought into the final if they genuinely think the team can get into the medal mix. Leaving Matt and Amber off the relay completely.

I think this is definitely the case, she won’t do the heats but will run the final if Ireland make it. The mixed relay is the interesting one. The signs from the GB camp is that the individual stars won’t be running the mixed relay before their individual, I wonder if Rhasidat will run it with a bit of rest before the women’s individual… I wouldn’t be surprised if she doesn’t given she has a genuine chance at an individual medal.

I'm not sure either decision is particularly that tough given recent races tbh. Coldwell beat Waugh in effectively the eliminator, and Dickinson has proved to have the swim and bike needed to pull Yee towards the front pack (if needed), and beat Jonny convincingly in the run in their final race recently so I can only see it being those two.