RussB

Yep. Could well become a tipping point if others start being reported

How can we get to the week before the competition starts and only now someone realises the pool is less than minimum depth required? Surely this is fake news?! this is the Olympics ffs.

The women's 8 are not one of the 3 gold medal favs: Womens lightweight double Women's 4 Women's quadruple sculls The 8 should medal but I agree that Romania look very strong and are currently odds on (8/11) to win gold.

Which one of the 6 classes do you think GB don’t win? the women’s 3 boats in question have looked so strong this year so I’m not sure there is weakness there. On the men’s side the pair have asserted dominance over their Swiss rivals recently, and the 8 have been the standout crew all cycle. I do think the 4 is vulnerable potentially to the US but should still be considered favs.

Funny that this long agonising decision was only reached one week before the games. If in the mind of the witness the video was clear proof of animal abuse, and well being standards not being observed, there is a moral obligation to report this to authorities with no delay. Let alone waiting multiple years. It is not within the remit of the witness to try and determine how best to maximise the punishment on any alleged impropriety. Unfortunately nobody comes out of this positively, mainly Charlotte of course and wider the team GB dressage community, but I suspect there could well be severe damage to the sport as a whole if the video eventually leaks +/or is supplemented by other evidence involving other nations and riders being released. Dressage training is by its nature less visible than other forms of equestrian; pulling back the curtain may have a significant impact a la modern pentathlon in Tokyo.

As I mentioned earlier, Glamourdale outscored ImHoTep on recent tests (very narrowly) so Lotte was considered 2nd favourite for the gold with a slightly better chance than Charlotte. the team score I find harder to place relative to others; I imagine the team GB equestrian unit will be deeply shocked by this on the eve of the games. I think you’d have to be pretty naive to think the timing of this is coincidental; whether you care about this aspect is more judgemental. To me it’s utterly cras just to force a penalty at the most opportune time. CDJ should be held accountable for her actions and I’m sure the deemed punishment will be appropriate; but serving it 4 years after the alleged incident to me is symptomatic of the cancel culture we live in today. And there should be significant scrutiny over why this has taken so long to emerge, and for it to emerge precisely 1 week before the Olympic dressage.

Popovici in the 200m free makes gold very very difficult (1m 42 time is I think beyond our boys). I think Evans, Colbert, Lichfield can snatch bronzes in the pool and relays will depend a lot on form of Jimmy doing fly and Peaty’s level. Emma in my predictions does the treble, the women’s sprint should be nailed on for min silver. jake falling is unfortunately very likely with his higher difficult vault. I’ve seen him utterly nail it once in competition, a fall, and a couple of times with huge steps. He will go for it in the final (if qualifies) and we just have to hope he nails it. one sport I have very little firm expectations on; nor have I seen others be definitive is an old GB strength of sailing. Interested to see how we do with the new line up of boat classes. Ive said repeatedly I’m very confident in the rowing. Bookmakers have us odds on / clear favs in; mens 4, men’s 8, pair, women’s 4, women’s 4x, women’s LWD. Add in medal chances in the women’s 8 and men’s 4x (an outside chance in women’s pair) and that’s a powerful team.

I’ll start the ball rolling on the golds front; we are not winning gold in the 4x1 mixed medley relay. Women’s team pursuit without KA is a stretch, KJT isn’t beating Thiam from what we’ve seen, and Lottie Fry is defo a clear 2nd fav in the dressage. lots of very optimistic shouts in their including the canoe slalom (!), Jess fox is the prohibitive fav over Mallory for example. i think the rowing might be quite accurate, although a little nervous for the men’s 4 vs the USA. on the other hand many of that silver list I have projected to win gold: Peaty (Qin in 2024 hasn’t hit the highs he did last year), K Woods, Max on pommel, men’s team pursuit and MHS. I think a gold number around the 25 mark isn’t impossible, but that’s possibly with my homer hat on. Losing CDJ today definitely hurts the tallies a little bit.

Another country ( with I suspect ties to their representative delegation) releasing this at a time which essentially hamstrungs GB in their bid on the team front and and the individual front leaves a sour taste in the mouth. It’s political intervention; nothing more and nothing less At the same time, the reality of evidence of our leading female olympic medallist acting in a way which is not promoting equine safety and wellbeing leaves a distinct and equally (if not more so) bitter taste.

just a horrible sickening blow to the team. I'm trying to tell myself from an individual stance Glamourdale is potentially the stronger medal prospect for GB, and maybe the team can still contend for a minor medal behind Germany but can't believe this has happened. Agree with the above sentiments, why release a 4 yr old video the week of the Games, if you want to raise an issue of animal mistreatment (which is absolutely fair to do, and the correct thing) then raise it immediately so it is dealt with. I suspect the comments about the elite end of dressage which MP outlines above is probably quite accurate.

QOTD: 1. Yes 2. Carl Hester (Dressage - Equestrian) and Helen Glover (rowing) I'm gutted about the men's 7s failure too, I'll be at the quarter finals and would have been great to support them. Excitement levels though are escalating!

Yes agree with the above. 41 flat is really high end so maybe I’m just holding out hope the US don’t execute as well as they did last year. Olympics seem to produce more varied results than Worlds looking back over recent history. For instance, the 2008 4x1 women’s champions? Belgium!! (Russia won on track) Sorry I meant both of them in one race; the 2017 had slipped my mind due to the focus on Bolt in a wheelchair stealing the limelight.

I think my framing might not be clear enough above. GBR I don't think in my lifetime has ever beaten either Jamaica or USA in the sprint relay in mens or womens at World level except the Athens 2004 Olympics [without a DNF]. I am simply raising the possibility we could shock the world a la 2004. It is a prospect I hadn't considered seriously until now. So even this year, US are favs for sure, and Jamaica will surely medal. But to me the gap to the US doesn't seem insurmountable and the GBR ladies have the benefit of a settled team. Gabby finishes her races so well I'm not sure if she is the best 3rd leg runner in terms of foot speed, in fact I don't know who the US will select as their final 4. DAS and DN are probably in shape to run 10.9 100m at the moment, Lansiquot and Hunt around the 11 flat-11.05 mark from what we have seen form wise. I could see them doing a 41.3 range in Paris (their ceiling) with improved takeovers and then you're asking the US team a proper question to beat that. Jamaica clearly has no Elaine, and I think there are questions over who is the 4th component of their quarter. Also SAFP appears to be on the downside (finally) of her glittering career with a 10.94 at trials. To me, I have GBR slight favourites to beat JAM, but USA will obviously remain clear favs for the gold.

I have just watched the 4x1 relay for the women, is there any chance they are actually a gold medal contender? It looks to me like there is more time on the changes (the one that was slow was 2->3) and they still ran a clear world lead. Jamaicans don't look the same force this year, and the US behind Shacarri don't terrify me...

Oh I’m in agreement re. Dobson, but then I’d argue Doom is in the same boat as Charlie. He really surprised me at the indoors and then at Europeans in beating Charlie in a super quick time. Matt theoretically could go a bit quicker… whether he can deliver that under the pressure of an Olympic final I have no idea.

The 400m is going to be a dog fight. You have a bevy of athletes going 44 flat, and then Matt and Quincy going 43.7. Doom from Belgium I think has to be respected for a bronze shout, in addition to the names we saw in London finishing behind MHS (including Dobson). I feel like he is going to have to go another PB and probably a 2 tenths PB to medal.

I’ll stick to a prediction of Hester and Glover. Both would be excellent choices. 👍

Despite it being the messiest race for the British fav. Can’t believe she almost won given the trouble she got herself in. Was a very entertaining watch!

Ah yes my mistake - eventing dressage first

Dressage is right at the start on that weekend too isn’t it…

Yes I think it would be a nice touch to offer it to Carl, he is the bedrock of the team, including buying ImHoTep who Charlotte has been partnered with for the past few years and is riding in the dressage events in Paris.

Im hoping for Max as its his swansong too (although not sure if he will do any comps post Olympics). But yes it could well be Andy again! Out of those 2 i think, or maybe Carl Hester - at this point ive lost count of what Olympics it is for him!

I had thought it would be Max as Murray did it in 2016 helen glover on the women’s side ?

I think both GB 4x1 free relays will qualify. On the women’s side; Freya improvement and a further drop from Eva should be considered more likely than not; and the 4th leg I doubt will be Colbert, rather Hope who is here purely for the 2 relays. on the men’s side I think we have to take the relay lineups with a massive pinch of salt. GB should do enough to qualify.

GBR middle distance running in a golden period right now, they go 1-2 in the Women's 1500m.