RussB

London diamond league meeting on Sat will provide more evidence to quantify exactly where the athletes are, Lina is clearly in great PB shape and despite the altitude of La Chaux de Fonds, it was very positive how strongly she finished the race in the last 50. Hopefully she lowers her 400M H mark once again this weekend.

GB have to use Joe somewhere (in one of the relays) as he isn’t doing the individual but I think it’s fair to predict Jimmy swims the final. For GB to be a medal contender we not only need Peaty on supreme form but Jimmy to rediscover Tokyo magic on the fly leg.

I have the GB gold count at 20-24 range mainly driven by cycling (cross discipline) and rowing contributing double digits. Those sports I feel very confident in. athletics and swimming is harder to predict but I think both should be able to contribute. Keely and men’s 4x2 for instance should be firm firm favs. Beyond them I expect traditional strengths in sailing and equestrian to have a good degree of success. it’s not an exact science though we are sticking our fingers in the air; the team has a wide variety of medal hopes across sports and it just depends on how the cookie crumbles. Statistically being that bronze heavy relative to gold and silver would be highly unlikely though!

He definitely is in the bracket of “a chance”, I did consider it but couldn’t get there as anything more than an outside shot. Same reasoning I excluded our 200m back girls. With Marchand in the race (I just can’t see him out the medals) and Duncan (who I don’t see Deano getting past) it obviously very much limits a medal chance. Throw in Wang, Casas and Foster all of whom have gone 1m 55 (at least). I think Tom enters 7th fastest on a 1m 56.1 in past 12 months, so it’ll be a big ask to make the podium. Maybe there is an argument that due to his lighter schedule than others, when the final occurs on 2nd August he will be slightly more rested.

Seem to have predicted 🇬🇧 with 60 medals which I don’t think will be too far off but of that only 12 golds which would be pretty unfortunate disparity in medal colour.

That's a fairly impressive conversion rate

I thought Yeargin was likely to stamp her authority on a final line up spot but you’re right there is a lot of depth and competition. I would be disappointed if the team can’t snatch a bronze in Paris, as surely will be there or thereabouts, but we need Amber to be in PB sort of form I think.

Just doing the maths (which is rough) it looks like they expanded it by 2% over what the max was given the speed of the stage. I’m not sure when they did that / or if my maths is exactly right

They did indeed expand the percentage for the time limit. Otherwise it would have got rid of a signficant chunk of the field

how many have been eliminated? think they will have to basically ditch the limits for this stage and make up new ones given what Pog just did

Lina smashes her PB in the 400m flat and goes 50.78. Interesting and welcome boost to the women's 4x4 chances. With the lack of form shown by Ohorougu, the sisters look like joining Amber as pencilled in names for the first choice squad.

Ah fair I wasn’t including open water (but Hector has a chance) I still think Honey finishes as top Brit in the 200m but to crack the top 3 looks impossible. the 200m fly on the women’s side is very open, so it’s not impossible one or both get in the mix (with fingers crossed!)

Yeah although “only” winning by 20 secs this year after demolishing the field by a minute last year 🤣 she swam another 16m 10 in the 1500 which seems to have been her mini final plateau lately, but swam 8m 30 in the 800 which I believe is another age record..

In total medal chances(regardless of relays), not predictions, but actual chances: proud (50 free) richards (100 and 200 free) scott (200 free and 200 IM) peaty (100 breast) Morgan (100 back) (not sure about 200) Litchfield (400 IM) Colbert (400 IM) Evans (100 breast) and at a real stretch given the level of competition but Wood (200 IM). I realise I’ve not included Luke for the 200 back.. I was bullish at his return at the end of 2023 but momentum seemed to drop off in 2024. I think the 200m back is quite open for the minor medals so maybe they both have a “chance” but it’s unlikely.

Guliano is who I had in mind; on inspection Alexy is not doing the individual 200m. no idea about Tom’s desires but from a pure outsider’s perspective it would look like a team call. Tom v Jacob to me is a toss up, I’d lean Tom but ultimately I don’t see either of them making the final in the 100m so we have to do what we can to ensure all the men’s relays make the finals, without sacrificing genuine individual medal chances

Agree but there has to be some semblance of balance between individual and relay. The schedule to put 100m semis on same session as the 200m relay final is utterly asinine, really amazes me how schedulers can make errors like this, but will affect the US as well with their lineup from the looks of things. Matt has a medal chance, im not sure that we could stretch expectations to say Tom would also have a medal chance.

Symptoms of CoVid that go beyond a minor inconvenience will mean he is not 100% for the Tdf - don't think this is going to influence the MtB at Paris in a few weeks time. He will miss a few days training while he recovers which I'd argue is less of a negative than completing the full rigours of the tour.

I think that would be a very tough ask for Matt. I think he goes into the hundred with 8th fastest time in the qualifying period, and would hold genuine outsider hopes of a medal given how tight the event is and hope for progression gives his profile.

Might be a blessing in disguise that he doesn't have to go through the severe fatigue of a TdF

I'm still going to cling to my hope that they give it to Zoe, or is the squad fixed at the 4 named in the road race (so can only be Deignan / Georgi/ Morris)?...

From my memory she was still a couple of tenths off after trials and we previously discussed whether they would send her to junior Europeans to chase a time (they didn't). Disappointing about Anderson although not a huge surprise, was hopeful she could have got back to the form she had last year and really turbocharged the 4x2 relay hopes of being in the vicinity of the bronze fight.

Falls in the category of strong fav but not a “lock”, in global competitions in recent years it has been very tight in the women’s high jump. There are certainly no guarantees she manages to go 2-10 again.

It’s not a dilemma, it’s just a shame that one of the most intriguing battles in track have been taken from us. Still on the plus side Neah Evans could well medal in the Omnium (I think she can compete with Lotte and maybe even Ally if she is at her best) and the women’s pursuit 4 of Barker Evans Morris and Knight have performed at a very high level already this year and may still be good enough to get into the gold medal race against NZ and give them a good run for their money. With Katie though the GB women’s Track team were looking at doing something historic so it’s a huge loss and one that I’m devastated about for her as a person (for those who are familiar with what she has gone through in recent years).

For me the rugby 7s is the big miss of the games on a personal level. the swimming and athletics squads seem far too restrictive in terms of the qualifying criteria but we have had that debate over and over on these forums. beyond that the boxing regression and lack of male representation in the judo is noteworthy but otherwise I’m positive about the teams chances. Particularly in the rowing and cycling disciplines (despite the Archibald set back). I also think the equestrian team will step up across the 3 disciplines; watch out for dressage being a source of success in particular.

I guess a boycott of the entire team could happen if the China swim team doping scandal really escalates 🤣🤣