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Rafa Maciel

Totallympics Medallist
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Everything posted by Rafa Maciel

  1. My initial take on the state of quotas after the completion of qualifying. Criteria 1 Qualifiers: Criteria 2 Qualifiers: Criteria 3 Qualifiers: (1 Individual All-Around) Criteria 4 Qualifiers: (Named Quotas) Kaylia Nemour Pauline Schaefer-Betz Alexa Moreno Filipa Martins Aleah Finnegan Bettina Lili Czifra Alba Petisco Anna Lashchevska Lena Bickel Hilary Heron Caitlin Rooskrantz Sona Artamonova Lihie Raz Lucija Hribar Criteria 5 Qualifiers: (Named Quotas) Vault: Csenge Maria Bacskay Uneven Bars: Meolie Jauch Balance Beam: Ana Perez Floor: Cassandra Loustalot
  2. team were a bit meh in the first couple of rotations but really knocked it out of the park on uneven bars.
  3. Time to start cheering for the French team. Gymnastics is the kind of event that you really want the host nation to be involved when it comes to the Olympics. Allez les bleus! (or whatever the gymnastic equivalent is)
  4. The only consolation for them is that they have decent chance to secure the 3 individual spots this week.
  5. and have their quotas. come up just short - 0.17. Now looks like will take the last quota.
  6. Not only missing the final, but strong chance they would also miss the top 12 so really showing the benefit of securing qualification last year. They had the chance to rest gymnasts and try out other names. I think Elisabeth Black may have been the only carry over from the team last year.
  7. There are 4 Sub-Divisions still to take place with 10 teams left to compete. So my predictions: & enter the competition in Sub-Division 7. Canada already qualified so should be confirmed at the end of Sub-Division 7. & are in Sub-Division 8. Germany probably have best chances to qualify in this group, but I don't see them getting into top 5. Expecting to be able to confirm and as qualified at the end of Sub-Division 8. & enter competition in Sub-Division 9. I think Japan will make it to team final so expect to be able to confirm and as qualified at the end of Sub-Division 9. and are the last teams to enter in Sub-Division 10. Both should have enough to make it into the top 12. & should be confirmed with probably and taking the final team quotas.
  8. So Majka didn't manage a top 8 finish - he came home in 22nd, 1:30 behind winner Wout Van Aert. He did however finish ahead of both Eritreans but he'll only net 5 points.
  9. Normally Gadirova and Kinsella would be the nominated All-Around athletes and I think there is probably more scope for an improved score from Kinsella - the fall on beam was a bit innocuous but seem to recall this isn't the first time that Kinsella has had a fall straight after mounting the beam. But to be honest hadn't clocked that Achampong had finished just ahead of Kinsella in qualifying and given Kinsella isn't a medal threat, it is unlikely that GB will follow Japan's lead and take their 3rd ranked gymnast.
  10. Sporting Giants was done for London specifically with a view to identifying athletes for rowing, handball and volleyball I think, but it proved that that type of scheme can work - it introduced Helen Glover to rowing and look what she has achieved since. I'd struggle to identify any talent schemes that are currently running nationwide in GB. Too many of our athletes are found by luck of location and stumbling upon an open day event.
  11. You are absolutely right - has major issues with team sports. A lot of that is historical and down to the home nations structure and the funding mentality that if you're not winning on the international stage then there is no reason to support the sport. I think UK Sport have begun to realise that there a funding problem so they announced and additional 2.4mln in funding for 8 team sports and we are perhaps beginning to see the green shoots off the back of that funding. Handball - Given how popular this was at London 2012 in the Copper Box arena, it was surprising that the federation wasn't able to capitalise more. As it is, we at least seem to have the structures in place to support the sport with age-group squads in place and the senior men are in the fight to take part in the 2026 European Championships. Beach Volleyball - The Bello brothers are a class team and can cut it on the international stage. The problem with them is that they lack consistency and haven't been able to make the breakthrough on to the main circuit. They are still in with a chance of qualifying for Paris but it would be through the continental championship pathway. Volleyball - Not sure we actually even have a team at this stage. This is a sport where the home nations are still maintaining their independence so this may be impacting the development of the sport. Basketball - Is actually in a pretty good place all things considered. It is beyond frustrating that the women threw away a great chance to qualify for Paris - I just hope that it doesn't lead to reduced financial support. By not taking up the place in the OQT the federation aren't exactly showing a great amount of respect or confidence in the men's squad. 3x3 Basketball - Absolutely agree this should be an area of focus. You would think there would be a fairly deep talent pool available if only they went looking for it. Water Polo - They seem to have made good use of their additional funding - particularly on the women's side where they have qualified for European Champs for the first time in 10 years. If they can continue to make solid progress it is not beyond possibility that we could see them at an Olympics in near future. If I was going to single out a sport that is screaming out for development it would probably be sprint canoe - we're world leaders in the Paralympic events but can't replicate that success in the Olympic events. One of the things that we don't seem to be doing as well now is promoting talent identification programmes. In the run up to London, the various GB federations seemed to make coordinated and well publicised efforts to find new blood for their sports but schemes like "Sporting Giants" seem to have fallen by the wayside.
  12. Not impossible but unlikely - a 400 point swing at this stage of the season is difficult to see, but if it is going to happen then the journey starts today: Coppa Bernocchi - Rafal Majka takes on Henok Mulubrhan and Natnael Tesfatzion. As a ProSeries event, there are 200 points available for the win but at a minimum, Majka needs a top 8 finish and has to finish ahead of both Eritreans. That would net him 50 points. 3-Oct: Tre Valli Varesine - Rafal Majka is again scheduled to take part and at least on the preliminary entry list, there are no riders from or . Again, it is a ProSeries event so 200 for the win so Majka needs top 8 finish. 3-Oct: Binche-Chimay-Binche- No ranking riders from taking part so it will be down to the performance of Biniam Girmay to determine the impact. As a Class 1 event, there are 125 points available for the win. If Girmay gets a top 4 finish and Majka hasn't scored in his 2 races, it becomes very difficult for Poland to overtake. Ultimately, the race is going to come down to the level of activity from the ranking riders and at the moment, there doesn't seem to be a huge amount scheduled for although the start lists for some of the events are incomplete. So their best chance of moving up the ranking comes at Il Lombardia - a top 5 finish from Kwiatowski and suddenly things look a lot brighter for Poland.
  13. finish qualification with a score of 166.130. That is just over 1.5 points higher than they achieved in Liverpool and 1.7 points higher than they managed at this year's Europeans. Pretty much all of the gains can be traced to improved scores on Balance Beam. In terms of the individual athletes, Jessica Gadirova is currently sitting in 3rd place in the All-Around with 56.932. That is over 2 points higher than she scored last year and is higher than the score she achieved when crowned European Champion earlier this year. Again, she posted a big gain on balance beam but she scored higher across all 4 apparatus. She is pretty much nailed on to qualify for individual all-around final with good chance she will be in the final group. Her 14.400 on Floor should see her into the apparatus final as should her 14.416 on vault. With a 14.000 on balance beam she should also have a chance there but it is worth saying that the scores this year seem to be running higher than Liverpool. I am not expecting any of the other gymnasts to qualify for individual finals although Alice Kinsella should be in the individual all-around despite having a fall on beam. She may also have outside chance of making the floor final - her score of 13.633 would have been enough last year - but I think she is likely to come up just short this time. Ondine Achampong and Georgia-Mae Fenton were both solid enough whilst Ruby Evans will probably be a bit disappointed with how things went - she was solid enough on floor, but had a fall on vault. Overall, I think the team will be happy with how things went - there were no major mistakes and they will be very much in contention for a medal on Wednesday but it is difficult to see how they can catch USA unless something goes seriously wrong.
  14. The end of the season is fast approaching: Men's Events CRO Race 1.) Orluis Alberto Aular Sanabria 2.) Alexander Kristoff 3.) Ethan Hayter Tour of Istanbul 1.) Gustav Wang 2.) Gianni Marchand 3.) Nicolas Vinokurov Tour de Langkawi 1.) Simon Carr 2.) Jefferson Cepeda Ortiz 3.) Pablo Castrillo Zapater Giro dell'Emilia 1.) Primoz Roglic 2.) Tadej Pogacar 3.) Simon Yates will net 165 points from the performances of the Yates brothers - and this, coupled with results elsewhere leads me to think there is a good chance that GB will overtake in the next UCI rankings release but it is likely to be close. Coppa Agostoni - Giro Delle Brianze 1.) Davide Formolo 2.) Marc Hirschi 3.) Victor Lafay Circuit Franco-Belge 1.) Arnaud De Lie 2.) Rasmus Tiller 3.) Corbin Strong Tour de Vendee 1.) Arnaud Demare 2.) Paul Penhoet 3.) Sandy Dujardin Lotto Famenne Ardenne Classic 1.) Arnaud De Lie 2.) Kaden Groves 3.) Florian Senechal Women's Events Giro dell'Emilia Internazionale Donne Elite 1.) Cecilie Ludwig 2.) Marta Cavalli 3.) Juliette Labous There are a handful of races over the next couple of weeks for the men's tour with the last big race of the season being Il Lombardia next weekend. I think this event may have been upgraded this year as the ranking points have increased compared to last year - there are now 800 ranking points for the winner so it could have significant impact on the final rankings. On the other hand, the women's tour is pretty much done and dusted with just 3 1-day races to go and the Tour of Guangxi so I am not expecting any dramatic shifts in the rankings as France would need to net 500 points to overtake GB.
  15. Snowshoe World Cup Men's Olympic Cross Country 1.) Jordan Sarrou 2.) Nino Schurter 3.) Marcel Guerrini Women's Olympic Cross Country 1.) Laura Stigger 2.) Loana Lecomte 3.) Marta Berta
  16. I don't make any judgement on Russian athletes primarily because I don't have benchmarks for their performance this year - I've collated the 2023 results for over 500 gymnasts but none of them were Russian
  17. I'm not sure that they are going to need to score that highly - most of the big scoring vaulters are already qualified through the team event or as All-Around so it may only need high 13s to get the spot. Looking at this year's World Cup/World Challenge Cup results then the following names would be in the frame: Shek Wai Hung - Made the final in 3 out of 4 World Cup events and won 2 bronze medals. Mahdi Olfati - Made the final in 3 World Cup events and secured silver in Cottbus. Dominick Cunningham - Made the final in Cairo but can be a little hit-and-miss. Generally pretty consistently in upper 13s which may be enough to qualify. Andrey Medvedev - 2 finals in World Cup events and generally hitting low 14s. Tseng Wesi-Sheng - 2 finals at world cup this year and consistently around 14. There's a further group who could be wildcards based on their 2023 performances but they haven't competed as often at WC events: Ondrej Kalny Auriel Benovic Audrys Nin Reyes and Jabiel Polanco Trinh Hai Khang Abdulaziz Mirvaliev
  18. Individual Finals: Floor: Harry Hepworth Pommel: Max Whitlock Rings: Harry Hepworth (Courtney Tulloch is 1st reserve) Vault: Harry Hepworth & Jake Jarman Marginal improvement on last year when we had 4 individual finalists. I wonder if Hepworth may be encouraged to not take part in the rings final and give his space to Tulloch.
  19. I think Yulo's quota will be allocated through Floor because it is schedule to be completed on the Saturday whereas the P-Bars final isn't until the Sunday. If that is the case, Muntean can't get P-Bar quota as he has an All-Around quota already (You have last quota going to whereas I think it goes to ), so I think that would mean the quota would go to Belgium's Kauvita.
  20. My initial take on the state of quotas after the completion of qualifying. Criteria 1 Qualifiers: Criteria 2 Qualifiers: Criteria 3 Qualifiers: (1 Individual All-Around) Criteria 4 Qualifiers: (Named Quotas) Milad Karimi Artem Dolgopyat Artur Davtyan Krisztofer Meszaros Lee Junho Diogo Soares Luka Van Den Keybus Andrei Vasile Muntean Criteria 5 Qualifiers: (Named Quotas) Floor: Edriel Carlos Yulo Pommel Horse: Rhys McClenaghan OR Ahmad Abu Al Soud OR Lee Chiah Kai OR Harutyun Merdinyan Rings: Eleftherios Petrounias OR Nikita Simonov OR Vincenz Hoeck OR Artur Avetisyan OR Vahagn Davtyan Vault: Kevin Penev P-Bars: Noah Kauvita Horizontal Bar: Tin Srbic OR Arthur Mariano
  21. round out the team quotas after came up short on the floor.
  22. Third rotation done for France - their hopes took a bit of knock as Saladino gave off the P-Bars so his score was down 1.5 points. Overall they move to 123.698 so they are 2 points down on Euros. It's not going to be easy to make up the difference.
  23. Vault was up on previous scores. Currently running 0.7 behind 2023 Euros. So they will need to find about 3.5-4 points across their remaining apparatus.
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