The Polish elections happened today.
First exit poll:
PIS - 43.6 %
KO - 27.4 %
LEFT - 11.9%
KP - 9.6%
KON - 6.4%
Margin of error: 2%
This is going to be a really interesting night. PIS would only have absolute majority if they got at least 43 %. Currently, they have only 0,6% more than that, which, if we take the 2% margin of error under account means that they may have celebrated too early. Furthermore, basically noone expected Konfederacja to make it, which means that any increase of support for this party means the other ones (primarily PIS) lose seats.
At the other hand, the centre party KO (Civic Platform+Modern+Greens+ basically anything you imagine) is clearly the party that failed. They had more than 32 % in previous election, but they failed their campaign miserably. Who knows what might have hapened had Wałęsa restrained himself from insulting the Prime Minister's Morawiecki late father only one day after he passed away. Noone likes Schetyna either, so it's no secret him stepping down would have benefited the party, unfortunately his ego once again overtook him
The Left is a big winner. They did not make it to the parlament in 2015, but now they have almost 12% of support, which is really good result if you consider that one of it's leaders is openly homosexual (which was unthinkable in public a few years ago). They attracted mostly the votes of young people who were tired of constant PO vs PIS battles, and they touched some taboo issues, like abortion or LGBT rights.
KP,or the Polish Coalition (PSL+Kukiz) is our agrar party, so they mostly got votes from villages and small towns. Still, they are possibly the biggest winners of these elections, the PSL only achieved 5.1% in 2015, barely passing the electoral threshold, and Kukiz 15 has been considered by many as a dead party. They are centre to centre-right in their views.
Konfederacja is the only openly far-right party, and it's a historical success for them. Their leader is Janusz Korwin-Mikke ( you may have heard of him when he performed the nazi salute in EU parliament) and they have some controversial connections and politicians (Robert Winnicki once declared he would not be insulted if he was called a fascist). Still, they are amongs the most popular parties for younger votes. They managed to present themselves as an alternative for PIS, and may very well be the force that causes the ruling party to lose the absolute majority it now holds.
I will post an update if there are any late polls.