1) it makes sense, since we spread our resources all around in many sports, so we can compensate the tops and flops every time...
moreover, we have those 2 "core sports" (fencing and clay target shooting) which always guarantee the most of our medals with a certain regularity...then the other disciplines are just for the cosmetics" of our medal table (and, as I wrote, sometimes it's judo, sometimes it's swimming and sometimes is something else doing this "job")...
that's how I explain our really constant results at the Summer Games (but, as I wrote before, it's just my personal interpretation, not "the truth about it")...
2) we are not a real powerhouse in Karate, but we have "tradition" and many good athletes that in a given day can even win the world title (it has happened more than once)...
at the moment we have 3 "sure contenders" (women's Kata -with more than 1 girl fighting for the spot, women's -55kg Kumite and men's -75kg Kumite), who are currently among the top 3 Nations in their respective classes (and they are all veterans who already won world and European titles) and 2 young rising stars (-68kg women's Kumite and +84kg men's Kumite, with Simone Marino who already won the senior European Champs at 20 last year)...
however, in this sport the situation is even worse than the early days of Taekwondo...referees and judges are a real problem...and there's nothing "safe"...
in Tokyo I expect a Japanese domination, almost a clean sweep of the Gold medals (the 2 Kata Gold medals are already written in the standings...they don't even need to start the competiton)...and I expect Italy to win those 3 medals I already named "sure contenders"...anything more than that would be a pleasant surprise (and, as I wrote 2 days ago, with this qualification pathway -just 10 spots per class, with Japan taking one place; Continental representation granted, even if in Karate all Continents are strong, also Africa; and 1 tripartite place when Japan don't use their host quota because they qualify via world ranking -which is likely to happen in all the classes- it's gonna be a lot more difficult to qualify than winning a medal once you fly to the Games)...