let's see how Italy could place if the Games were about to start right now...
Archery: 1-2 medals (we have a shot in at least 4 of the 5 events -the 3 team competitions and also in the men's individual event- but I guess we should be very happy with a couple of tallies...men's team being the brightest chance)
Athletics: 1 medal (women's 20km race walk)
Badminton: -
Basketball: -
Boxing: 2-3 medals (Mesiano and Testa among the girls should be among the medal candidates, then the men's team is rebuilding, but we still have 2-3 good fighters...the problem is that they need a very lucky draw to get to the medal stages)
Canoeing slalom: hopefully 1 medal (we have some good athletes in both men and women's K1, but we should be realistic and 1 medal would be already a good success)
Canoeing sprint: 1 medal (if Tacchini continues to improve and WADA do their job properly, he has some good chances in the men's C1...maybe not for gold, but he could be on the podium for sure)
Cycling road: 2 medals (Italy can't start in a cycling road race without the ambition of winning at least a medal...and we also have some good bikers who could actually do it)
Cycling track: 5 medals (both team pursuit races, both omnium events, women's madison )
BMX: -
Mountainbike: -
Diving: 2 medals (if Cagnotto & Dallapè are seriously back, otherwise...no chance)
Equestrian: -
Fencing: 13 medals (there's no reason we shouldn't aim to get a medal in each and every fencing event, with the women's individual foil going for 2 at least...obviously we won't get that far, but the target is there for sure)...
Field hockey: -
Football: 1 medal (finally I hope we're going to make amend for all the past mistakes and go for the gold in men's football)
Golf: -
Rhythmic gymnastics: 1 medal (the group event should give us some satisfaction after Rio's disappointing outcome)
Trampoline: -
Artistic gymnastics: -
Handball: -
Judo: 3-5 medals (Basile, Marconcini, Manzi among the boys and Giuffrida, Gwend, Galeone among the girls should be a good insurance)
Modern pentathlon: 1 medal (I hope our youngsters who dominated the junior ranks in the past few years would be ready in time for Tokyo)
Rowing: 3-4 medals (coxless pair and four and the double sculls -both senior and lightweight)
Rugby: -
Sailing: 1-2 medals (women's RS:X, mixed Nacra more than others)
Shooting: 6-7 medals (all clay target events could -should- give us at least one medal, then Zublasing could eventually make up for her Rio disappointment...and if Campriani gets back at elast in the Air Rifle events...well, these could be 2 more big chances)
Swimming: 6-7 medals (Paltrinieri -men's Open Water 10k, 1500m and 800m- & Detti -1500m, 800m and 400m- should do the most of the damage, then we should have also 2 or 3 more chances with Quadarella -women's 1500m- Martinenghi/Scozzoli -men's 100m breastroke- and the girls of the Open Water 10k...then if Pellegrini makes up her mind about the 200m Free, that's could be one more big chance)
Synchronized swimming: -
Table tennis: -
Taekwondo: - (we have a lot of good young guns, but I think Tokyo will come too early for them...maybe Vito Dell'Aquila is the only real shot already in 2020...but frankly I'd be rather surprised to see any Italian on the podium)
Tennis: -
Triathlon: -
Volleyball (and Beach Volleyball): 2 medals (both men's and women's team must at least start to win a medal, even if it's not realistic that both would succeed...then Nicolai & Lupo in men's beach volley)
Water polo: 2 medals (and they should be 2 "heavy" medals)
Weightlifting: -
Wrestling: 1 medal (Frank Chamizo in the men's freestyle...and always in the men's freestyle, maybe even Kudiamagomedov -if he gets the Italian passport in time- could be a pleasant surprise)
Surfing: -
Skateboard: - (we have some amazing young talents, but I don't think we'll be allowed to steal the show to the traditional powerhouses of this activity -Brazil and USA)
Sport Climbing: - (too soon to call...the new Olympic format could -should- mess things up and it's all to be seen what's gonna be the effect on the best specialists of the 3 traditional SC disciplines...however, I don't think Italy has too many chances of a medal)
Karate: 3-4 medals (both Kata events -whoever will be our man/woman in that competition + Busà, Marino, Maresca, Cardin, Semeraro in the Kumite events...all of them could be real medal threats in Tokyo...if they manage to qualify -with the strict rules they have set for this first Olympic appearance of Karate, the qualification pathway will be a lot more difficult than winning a medal once in Tokyo)
Total: it's well above the 50 medals...of course it will neve happen that we're gonna win them all...but those are all realistic hopes...let's say that we should be very happy with our "classic" 30 medlas (10 or more of them being Gold)...
but I'm sure that this time we have the potential to do a lot better than in recent past...