17 event quotas (3x 500m/1000m/1500m/5000m, 2x 10000m/Mass Start + team pursuit), but only 9 skater quotas, so a maximum of 9 different Dutch male skaters can go to Beijing to compete.
Today the national ice skating association (KNSB) has published how they will determine which 9 skaters will go. Once again, the Dutch association asked scientists from the University of Groningen to come up with these matrices. The matrix shows the selection order for the skater quotas, based on the distances on which the mathematicians believe the Dutch have the highest chance of earning a gold medal in Beijing.
The top 6 highest ranked skaters in the final matrix will always go. It is very likely that the 7th and 8th highest ranked skater will also go and that the national association will select the number 9th based on who they think is the best fit for either the team pursuit or the mass start and who is not already part of the top 8 skaters.
Selection order
Men
Women
1
#1 1.000m
#1 5.000m
2
#1 5.000m
#1 Mass Start
3
#1 1.500m
#1 3.000m
4
#2 1.000m
#2 3.000m
5
#1 10.000m
#1 500m
6
#1 Mass Start
#1 1.000m
7
#2 1.500m
#1 1.500m
8
#1 500m
#2 5.000m
9
#3 1.000m
#2 1.500m
10
#3 1.500m
#2 1.000m
11
#2 5.000m
#3 3.000m
12
#2 10.000m
#3 1.500m
13
#2 500m
#3 1.000m
14
#3 5.000m
#2 500m
15
#3 500m
#3 500m
For example, if we fill in the matrixes based the results of the national championships that were held in the last week of October, then they would select the following skaters:
Selection order
Men
Women
1
Kai Verbij
Irene Schouten
2
Jorrit Bergsma
Irene Schouten
3
Thomas Krol
Irene Schouten
4
Hein Otterspeer
Antoinette de Jong
5
Jorrit Bergsma
Jutta Leerdam
6
Bart Hoolwerf
Jutta Leerdam
7
Kjeld Nuis
Antoinette de Jong
8
Kai Verbij
Sanne in 't Hof
9
Thomas Krol
Ireen Wüst
10
Chris Huizinga
Femke Kok
11
Patrick Roest
Carlijn Achtereekte
12
Patrick Roest
Jutta Leerdam
13
Dai Dai N'tab
Ireen Wüst
14
Marwin Talsma
Femke Kok
15
Hein Otterspeer
Michelle de Jong
Green = 100% sure based on results during trials,
Yellow = very likely based on trials, but could potentially be replaced by another skater to improve the team pursuit/mass start team,
Red = will probably be replaced,
Black = not qualified based on trials, but can be manually selected by the national association.
Grey = also fills in a higher spot in the matrix, so this result doesn't count