Dennis

Women's 3.000m provisional quota before the B-Group has been skated. The B-Group will be skated after midnight, and I won't stay up for that: 100% qualified as they are sure of a top 14 ranking no matter the outcome of the B-Group: x3 x2 x3 Final quota based on ranking between and ( Han Mei qualifies, unless Morozova wins the B-Group) Currently qualified based on time: Evgeniia Lalenkova - 3:57:876 Mei Han - 3:58.759 (only relevant if Morozova wins B-Group, otherwise she will qualify based on ranking) Nadezhda Morozova - 3:59.647 (only relevant if she doesn't win the B-Group) Sofie Karoline Haugen - 4:02.662 Mia Kilburg-Manganello - 4:02.914 Natalia Czerwonka - 4:04.222 Ekaterina Sloeva - 4:04.685

Provisional quota for the men's 500m after 7/8 races (my calculation, might have mistakes): x1 x2 x2 x1 x1 x2 x2 x3 x1 x2 x3 x2 x3 x3 x2 Reserve list in order: Nil Llop got disqualified in race 7 unfortunately, but one chance left to qualify.

22:35 Stockholm time

Tried to make a quick calculation. Provisional quota's on the women's 500m after 7/8 races: x1 () x1 x1 x1 x3 x2 x1 x3 x1 x2 x3 x2 x2 x3 x1 x1 x2 Reserves, in order:

Very risky, I have a feeling we’ll lose some quotas because of this decision.

I’m sad is currently not in. Nil Llop is one of the most talented youngsters out there and skated sub-35 on the 500m as a junior which is impressive. These World Cups have been so competitive though with 45 skaters having a season best time under 35.00. He’s currently first reserve, so I’m hoping he will make it by skating another PB in Calgary.

Yes, 100%

Maybe she withdrew, maybe the start list for the final is incomplete as there are 19 skaters mentioned on the start list while 10 per semi-final qualify.

World record on the 5k for Van der Poel

On December 13th we should be 99,9% certain as the final World Cup that counts towards the Olympic Qualification Rankings will finish on December 12th. Everything will be official by December 24th when the ISU will publish it's final provisional quota list. NOCs have to confirm these quotas by January 16th. However, on the 10k Van der Poel is already 100% certain as the qualification works as follows: The top 8 in the combined World Cup standings over 5k and 10k after the first 4 World Cup weekends will qualify directly with a maximum of 2 per NOC The remaining skaters can qualify by skating one of the 4 fastest times over 10k during one of the 4 first World Cup weekends (with no more than 2 quota in total through option 1 and 2 combined per NOC). Nils will most likely qualify through option 1. However, the only 10k skated during the first 4 World Cup weekends was skated last week and he obliterated the competition by finishing more than 17 seconds in front of #2. So if some miracle happens and he will fall outside of the top 8 in the World Cup standings, he will always qualify based on time. On the 5k, he is 99,9% certain as the top 14 in the World Cup standings as of mid December will qualify. He is currently ranked #1 with 120 points. In previous seasons, somewhere between 105 - 115 points was sufficient to be in the top 14 after 4 World Cup weekends. If a miracle happens and he falls outside of the top 14, he can still qualify based on time. Besides the top 14, 6 additional skaters will qualify based on season best times skated during a World Cup. Nils currently leads that time ranking, but a 5k will be skated in both Salt Lake City and Calgary, which are the fastest 2 tracks in the world.

Does anyone know how this rule works (D.2.4)? Can women's quota be re-allocated to men if the total number of allocated event quota places confirmed by NOCs on the women's side is less than 83? I can't find such a thing mentioned in the qualification documents, but this rule only mentions a maximum number of 166 quota places, not the 83 places per gender. I think the total quota that will be confirmed by the NOCs on the women's side will not exceed the maximum qualification places of 83 per gender as there are many skaters who are likely to be confirmed by their NOC for more than 1 distance. For example, if the qualification period would end today, the following skaters would get 4 quotas for their NOC: Zueva Blondin Zdrahalova Lollobrigida Schouten Mei with another 17 skaters who are currently in a qualifying position for 3 distances. Only 35 female skaters are currently in a qualifying position for a singular distance. However, on the men's side only Swings will qualify on 4 distances and four skaters on 3 distances, whereas 60 different skaters are currently ranked high enough to qualify for only 1 distance. Therefore, I can't imagine a situation in which 83 quota will be sufficient.

Let's hope their quota simulation is wrong, because the qualification rules we both used for our own simulations are the rules that are still available on the website of the ISU and you cannot change the rules this late into the season: https://www.isu.org/docman-documents-links-2/2022-beijing/qualification-systems-3/24307-speed-skating-v1-1/file

Haha, I have the same issue. I made some errors, I noticed. But I agree, guys like Christian Oberbichler shouldn't be at the Olympics if you want the best skaters to be there, as they would probably finish last by at least half a second.

Yes, you are right. China just needs to finish and not get disqualified during any of the following World Cup events. Right now they’re not on the reserve list as they have 0 points and no valid best time.

Yes, , and are barely in though. and should make it, but they're far from sure yet. So let's see what will happen.

According to my calculations these are the provisional quota's per NOC after World Cup 1 out of 4: Men: NOC Max # of different skaters 500m 1.000m 1.500m 3.000m 5.000m Mass Start Team Pursuit 4 1 1 1 1 5 2 1 1 1 8 3 3 3 2 2 1 3 7 3 2 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 3 1 2 2 1 1 7 2 2 1 1 1 1 8 2 1 1 2 1 1 3 7 3 3 3 1 1 3 4 2 1 1 7 2 3 2 1 3 1 1 9 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 8 2 2 3 2 2 1 3 2 1 1 7 2 2 2 2 7 2 2 2 3 2 2 3 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 7 1 2 2 2 2 3 *10.000m ranking is purely based on current combined World Cup standings over 5.000m/10.000m. Next week, the only 10.000m will be skated. Total maximum number of different skaters is now 114, though only 83 different skaters per gender may start. Reserves per distance (in order): 500m: 1.000m: 1.500m: 5.000m: Mass Start: Team Pursuit: currently first reserve on two distances. As long as I can remember, they've always qualified multiple skaters, so it would be a pity to see them missing out. I'm also hoping for Gabriel Odor to qualify on the men's 1.500m and/or mass start. also just outside of the qualifying spots only 2 skaters currently ranked high enough for a direct quotum on the 500m, which is probably the biggest surprise. .

According to my calculations these are the provisional quota's per NOC after World Cup 1 out of 4: Women: NOC Max # of different skaters 500m 1.000m 1.500m 3.000m 5.000m Mass Start Team Pursuit 1 1 3 1 1 1 7 1 1 2 1 1 3 8 2 2 2 3 2 2 3 7 2 3 2 2 1 2 7 1 2 2 1 2 3 1 1 1 7 2 2 2 1 4 1 1 1 1 8 3 2 3 2 2 2 3 6 1 1 2 1 1 7 2 2 1 2 9 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 6 1 1 1 1 1 3 7 2 2 2 2 3 8 3 3 3 2 1 2 3 2 1 1 2 1 1 3 1 1 1 7 3 2 2 1 2 3 *5.000m ranking is purely based on current combined World Cup standings over 3.000m/5.000m. Next week, the only 5.000m will be skated. Total maximum number of different skaters is now 112, though only 83 different skaters per gender may start. However, many countries will probably let several skaters skate multiple distances, i.e. will use only Sablikova and Zdrahalova (and maybe Kursova) to fill their 7 quota. Reserves per distance (in order): 500m: 1.000m: 1.500m: 3.000m: Mass Start: Team Pursuit: is the biggest country missing as Vanessa Herzog is injured. Hopefully she'll return in December to secure her spot.

is currently 1st reserve on the men's mass start Still 2 more world cups to go though, but that would be amazing!

Kjeld Nuis just finished 4th at the Dutch National Championships on the 1.000m in 1.07,88. With that time you would've won the world title last season on the same track.

Amazing race from Kiesenhofer! This is why I love the Olympics. It makes for such great stories!

Great race and a great winner indeed. Great gold medal for

This sport is nerve wracking to watch South Korea will annihilate the Dutch team in the final, I reckon.

Congrats Latvia!

Congrats to Japan! Who will replace them in next week's tournament?