Dennis

Men's 1.500m quota for now. The top 20 of the Olympic qualification ranking is fixed. 10 more skaters will be added after the B-Group has finished. Qualified based on ranking: x2 x2 x1 x3 x1 x1 x3 x3 x2 x2

Yeah, really happy with being in. I saw it coming for a few years when her times became more and more competitive, but it was always going to be close. Sad about Peter Michael missing out, he's such a fun skater. Colombia has some talented juniors, for example the reigning national champion on the women's 500m and 1.000m is a 15-year-old and I wouldn't be surprised if Diego Amaya is going to win a medal during the Junior World Championships this year (if they won't be cancelled). He got a silver medal and two 4th places during the 2020 Youth Olympics. So let's hope for some Colombian skaters in Milan.

Maybe my calculations are incorrect, but Roest and Blokhuijsen both not starting on the 1.500m may cost the Netherlands a quota on this distance. They're taking such a risk.

Women's 500m quota if my calculations are correct: x3 x2 x3 x2 x3 x2 x2 x3 x2 Reserves: Brittany Bowe misses out on a quota for the USA by 2 points after skipping 3 races, and Sandrine Tas gets surpassed in the final race of the season and is now first reserve.

Not 100% true, all points are doubled during the World Cup Final, so in theory even #11 in the standings Marwin Talsma could still win if all the entire top 10 ends their seasons after the Olympics.

Men's 5.000m provisional quota list before the B-Group has been skated: 100% certain if my calculations are correct: x3 x3 x3 Qualified on time for now, but can all change once the B-Group has skated: Casey Dawson - 6:10.803 Livio Wenger - 6:12.132 Ethan Cepuran 6:12.378 Felix Rijhnen 6:15.069 Sverre Lunde Pedersen 6:15.116 Hallgeir Engebråten 6:15.130 Men's 10.000m final quota based on my calculations: Qualified based on ranking: x2 Qualified based on time: Reserves (in order): Shen Hanyang misses out on a host quota by 0.7 seconds on a 10.000m

Deadline is December 24th. Don't think they'll publish them before that date, but maybe there will be a positive surprise.

Final provisional list will be published by the ISU around Christmas.

Women's 5.000m final quota (of couse my calculations, so there could be errors): Top 8 in combined 3.000m/5.000m World Cup standings (max 2 per country): 4 skaters qualified based on time: Reserves (in order):

Women's 3.000m provisional quota before the B-Group has been skated. The B-Group will be skated after midnight, and I won't stay up for that: 100% qualified as they are sure of a top 14 ranking no matter the outcome of the B-Group: x3 x2 x3 Final quota based on ranking between and ( Han Mei qualifies, unless Morozova wins the B-Group) Currently qualified based on time: Evgeniia Lalenkova - 3:57:876 Mei Han - 3:58.759 (only relevant if Morozova wins B-Group, otherwise she will qualify based on ranking) Nadezhda Morozova - 3:59.647 (only relevant if she doesn't win the B-Group) Sofie Karoline Haugen - 4:02.662 Mia Kilburg-Manganello - 4:02.914 Natalia Czerwonka - 4:04.222 Ekaterina Sloeva - 4:04.685

Provisional quota for the men's 500m after 7/8 races (my calculation, might have mistakes): x1 x2 x2 x1 x1 x2 x2 x3 x1 x2 x3 x2 x3 x3 x2 Reserve list in order: Nil Llop got disqualified in race 7 unfortunately, but one chance left to qualify.

22:35 Stockholm time

Tried to make a quick calculation. Provisional quota's on the women's 500m after 7/8 races: x1 () x1 x1 x1 x3 x2 x1 x3 x1 x2 x3 x2 x2 x3 x1 x1 x2 Reserves, in order:

Very risky, I have a feeling we’ll lose some quotas because of this decision.

I’m sad is currently not in. Nil Llop is one of the most talented youngsters out there and skated sub-35 on the 500m as a junior which is impressive. These World Cups have been so competitive though with 45 skaters having a season best time under 35.00. He’s currently first reserve, so I’m hoping he will make it by skating another PB in Calgary.

Yes, 100%

Maybe she withdrew, maybe the start list for the final is incomplete as there are 19 skaters mentioned on the start list while 10 per semi-final qualify.

World record on the 5k for Van der Poel

On December 13th we should be 99,9% certain as the final World Cup that counts towards the Olympic Qualification Rankings will finish on December 12th. Everything will be official by December 24th when the ISU will publish it's final provisional quota list. NOCs have to confirm these quotas by January 16th. However, on the 10k Van der Poel is already 100% certain as the qualification works as follows: The top 8 in the combined World Cup standings over 5k and 10k after the first 4 World Cup weekends will qualify directly with a maximum of 2 per NOC The remaining skaters can qualify by skating one of the 4 fastest times over 10k during one of the 4 first World Cup weekends (with no more than 2 quota in total through option 1 and 2 combined per NOC). Nils will most likely qualify through option 1. However, the only 10k skated during the first 4 World Cup weekends was skated last week and he obliterated the competition by finishing more than 17 seconds in front of #2. So if some miracle happens and he will fall outside of the top 8 in the World Cup standings, he will always qualify based on time. On the 5k, he is 99,9% certain as the top 14 in the World Cup standings as of mid December will qualify. He is currently ranked #1 with 120 points. In previous seasons, somewhere between 105 - 115 points was sufficient to be in the top 14 after 4 World Cup weekends. If a miracle happens and he falls outside of the top 14, he can still qualify based on time. Besides the top 14, 6 additional skaters will qualify based on season best times skated during a World Cup. Nils currently leads that time ranking, but a 5k will be skated in both Salt Lake City and Calgary, which are the fastest 2 tracks in the world.

Does anyone know how this rule works (D.2.4)? Can women's quota be re-allocated to men if the total number of allocated event quota places confirmed by NOCs on the women's side is less than 83? I can't find such a thing mentioned in the qualification documents, but this rule only mentions a maximum number of 166 quota places, not the 83 places per gender. I think the total quota that will be confirmed by the NOCs on the women's side will not exceed the maximum qualification places of 83 per gender as there are many skaters who are likely to be confirmed by their NOC for more than 1 distance. For example, if the qualification period would end today, the following skaters would get 4 quotas for their NOC: Zueva Blondin Zdrahalova Lollobrigida Schouten Mei with another 17 skaters who are currently in a qualifying position for 3 distances. Only 35 female skaters are currently in a qualifying position for a singular distance. However, on the men's side only Swings will qualify on 4 distances and four skaters on 3 distances, whereas 60 different skaters are currently ranked high enough to qualify for only 1 distance. Therefore, I can't imagine a situation in which 83 quota will be sufficient.

Let's hope their quota simulation is wrong, because the qualification rules we both used for our own simulations are the rules that are still available on the website of the ISU and you cannot change the rules this late into the season: https://www.isu.org/docman-documents-links-2/2022-beijing/qualification-systems-3/24307-speed-skating-v1-1/file

Haha, I have the same issue. I made some errors, I noticed. But I agree, guys like Christian Oberbichler shouldn't be at the Olympics if you want the best skaters to be there, as they would probably finish last by at least half a second.

Yes, you are right. China just needs to finish and not get disqualified during any of the following World Cup events. Right now they’re not on the reserve list as they have 0 points and no valid best time.

Yes, , and are barely in though. and should make it, but they're far from sure yet. So let's see what will happen.