I agree with the favorites for the promotion slot.
The reason I put Belgium this high is that I don't see many bottom placements for them whereas I do foresee many finished around 4th or 5th place. I just don't see them in 7th having to fear for relegation.
To me, the reason I picked these bottom four are:
Ireland is not good at the field events. I can't think of any strong Irish athlete in the field events at the moment. That will cost them a lot of points. I foresee that they will finish many events around 5th-7th place.
Romania is not that strong in the track events. I don't foresee a lot of top half finishes in those events and there are less field events to compensate for those. Honestly, if all countries bring their strongest teams, I don't see Romania winning any event. Maybe women's long jump or triple jump.
Lithuania is strong in a number of events such as discus and javelin throw, but the track events are poor, often bottom two. Wouldn't be surprised if they would finish last in the relays on the men's side.
Volko is good, but the guys from Turkey and the Netherlands are also good in those events, and one person on the men's side is not enough to carry the team. Mid and long-distance running, apart from the women's 800m seems to be non-existing there, there's not enough depth for strong relay teams, and shot put and discus are also not that strong. Just too many last places in my eyes which will not be compensated by many 'podium' finishes.