Rafa Maciel

I fear that I may have developed an unhealthy obsession with cycling ranking lists over the course of the last 2 weeks, but if the MTB qualification were to end as of the completion of world champs, I think the quotas on the men's side would be:
 
Olympic Ranking Quotas (27):
 
2x        
 
1 x           
 
 
Continental Quotas (3)
 
Africa: TBC - Won by South Africa but reallocated to 
America: 
Asia: TBC - Possibly  based on 2022 Asian Champs
 
2023 World Championship Quotas:
All of the quotas from the World Champs are subject to reallocation
 
2023 Elite Race:  & 
 
2023 Under-23 Race:  & 
 
Reallocation of Host Quota:
Would go to next nation in Olympic Ranking: 
 
So, if I have got this ride (not guaranteed at this time of night), but Matthieu van der Poel could line up on the MTB start line in Paris by virtue of the performance of the Dutch under 23 squad.
 
As for Sagan, unfortunately the Slovakian team didn't really achieve much at the world champs so they will stay ranked around 30th and about 600 points outside of qualifying position. His best prospect of qualifying was likely to have been through reallocation of quotas in the elite race but it looks like he fell well short of what was required. 
 

Class round by Roz Canter - only rider inside of the optimum time and she'll take a 2 fence cushion into the final day. 

Bordone out 

Looks like Blom-Hulsman is struggling a bit for  - in fact she's retired.
 
Quota is very much up for grabs for Italy now

Michael Jung! 

Men's Boulder/Lead Quotas:
 
 Jakob Schubert
 Colin Duffy
Tomoa Narasaki

Men's Boulder/Lead Quotas:
 
 Jakob Schubert
 Colin Duffy
Tomoa Narasaki

Men's Boulder/Lead Quotas:
 
 Jakob Schubert
 Colin Duffy
Tomoa Narasaki

Men's Boulder/Lead Quotas:
 
 Jakob Schubert
 Colin Duffy
Tomoa Narasaki

under a sport-only related point of view, Oceania shouldn't exist as a standalone Continent, they should be just part of Asia always and forever

The fact that there are only 2 teams competing here is is one of the reasons why I am not a huge fan of some of the continental qualifiers for Oceania - it is generally the least competitive of the continents and invariably just benefits Australia or New Zealand. 

The fact that there are only 2 teams competing here is is one of the reasons why I am not a huge fan of some of the continental qualifiers for Oceania - it is generally the least competitive of the continents and invariably just benefits Australia or New Zealand. 

It seems a bit weird that they have scheduled all 4 of the women's omnium in the same evening session whereas the men's event had the scratch race in the afternoon session 

Absolutely - Netherlands have less than 2 fences in hand over Italy and they still have to get round the Cross Country. 
 
Looking at the recent results the dutch team don't chase the cross country time so can easily rack up 20-30 time faults.
 
Theoretically, Andrew Heffernan should be the weakest link in the Dutch team - he's ranked 121 in the world - but he has had some solid results this year and is very much the team leader this weekend. He will be their pathfinder for tomorrow's cross country and should be able to put in a solid round although would expect him to be outside of the optimum time. If he puts in a good round, it will give the rest of the team a boost of confidence. 
 
Janneke Boonzaaijer had a good result in both Strzegom and Baborowko this year - but again on neither occasion was she within the optimum time. Also worth pointing out that this pairing were eliminated during the cross country at the Tokyo Olympics. 
 
Sanne de Jong will be the 3rd rider for Netherlands and is perhaps, the weakest link of the team having been eliminated in the last Europeans and picking up 48 cross country penalties at the worlds last year although she does have a 5th place finish from Strzegom event in June. 
 
Finally, Merel Blom-Hulsman is the 4th line rider for the team but can't see any recent results for this pairing.
 
 

Personally think that Italy have the more balanced team - all of them are capable of scoring low to mid 30s. Bit surprised that Bordone scored so poorly - 7 points less than she managed at the Worlds (I appreciate that this is a different dressage test so direct comparisons aren't possible) 
 
For Netherlands and Belgium, their team performance is really build around 1 rider - Heffernan for  and Donckers for . 
 
Still think that Italy are marginal favourites for the second quota behind Belgium but ahead of Netherlands.

With Majdalani/Bosco being ranked 5th in the world, you've got to assume they are going to be there in the mix for a quota.
 
I don't know enough about current form of the fleet to be confident enough to make my own predictions which is why I went looking for other opinions 

Nacra 17 potential quotas:
 
"Almost a Lock"
 Ruggero Tita / Caterina Banti
 
"Should Qualify"
 John Gimson / Anna Burnet
 Sinem Kurtbay / Akseli Keskinen
 Paul Kohlhoff / Alica Stuhlemmer
 
"Likely to Qualify"
 Micah Wilkinson / Erica Dawson
 Laila van der Meer / Bjarne Bouwer
 Emil Jarudd / Hanna Jonsson
 
Fighting it out for the remaining 2 quotas, they have 9 nations including , , ,  and 
 
Source: Nacra17.org » 2023 World Sailing Championship
 
 

Prepping for the action to get underway, have stumbled across a couple of quota predictions - presented here for information only and not as a representation of my own expectations 
 
Men's 49er
"Virtually Certain to Qualify":
 Lambriex / Van De Werken
 Botin / Trittel
 
"Likely to Qualify":
 McHardie / McKenzie
 Buksak / Wierzbicki
 Peters / Sterritt
 Sime Fantela / Mihovil Fantela
 Ian Barrows / Hans Henken
 
They then have 16 nations fighting it out for the remaining 3 quotas.
 
Women's 49er FX
"Virtually Certain to Qualify":
 Odile Van Aanholt / Annette Duetz
 Martine Gracel / Kahena Kunze
 Vilma Bobeck / Rebecca Netzler
 Stephanie Roble / Maggie Shea
 
"Likely to Qualify":
 Tamara Echegoyen / Paula Barcelo
 Isaura Maenhaut / Anouk Geurts
 Helene Naess / Marie Ronningen
 
They then have 15 nations who could potentially fill the remaining 3 berths. 
 
Source: International 49er Class Association » 2023 World Sailing Championship
 

Can't say that I am overly impressed with their online presence - they can't even put the entry lists up by crew. 

Just catching up on the results from the Junior Time Trial earlier today and realised that Ben Wiggins, son of  most successful Olympian Sir Bradley Wiggins, won silver. Wonder if we'll be seeing him at a future Olympics. 

Compared to Tokyo,  and  miss out on the second quota whilst  and  gain an extra spot. Technically  also drop a quota but they didn't use it in Tokyo so there is no difference for them.

Personally I go with the UCI version purely because it is the easiest one to work with and is ultimately going to be the source used to allocate quotas and there aren't that many big events left over the next 8-10 weeks or so that are going to have big impact on the ranking.  

The Procycling ranking is based only on performances within the qualifying period whereas the UCI ranking is based on 12 month rolling period of a nation's top 8 riders. 
 
In theory they should come together and show the same ranking by the time the qualifying period ends in October. 

Not 100% sure by any stretch - as I said, I've not had time to run the numbers for the rest of the qualifying window - but France currently have a 3000 point advantage over both Italy and Netherlands and that's not going to be easy to overcome. 
 
Van Der Poel winning today will pull in 900 points for Netherlands but their riders are defending a fair chunk of points in the last quarter of the qualifying window.

Looking at the UCI calendar, I think the main multi-stage events to take place within the qualifying period are:
 
UCI World Tour
23 Aug: Renewi Tour (Formerly known as Tour of Benelux) 
26 Aug: Vuelta Espana
12 Oct: Tour of Guangxi
 
ProSeries
15 Aug: Tour of Denmark
15 Aug: Vuelta a Burgos
17 Aug: Arctic Race of Norway
23 Aug: Deutschland Tour
3 Sep: Tour of Britain
14 Sep: Tour of Taihu Lake
20 Sep: Tour of Luxembourg
20 Sep: Tour de Langkawi
5 Oct: Tour of Hainan