Hamilton is probably the favourite in both races indeed, but it's definitely not a done deal yet. Maybe for basically the first time this year, a tiny bit of luck will fall the way of Verstappen instead of Hamilton
Jeddah does seem like a track where a small mistake can be the end of your race (or qualifying), and so far, Hamilton has definitely been the more inconsistent driver this year. Besides, he does still need to catch up. We'll see, at least it's already historical to simply have the fact that a Dutchman could take the freaking world title (!) in the next race