MHSN

Guys, the whole calculations are pointless until they announce the final list of 2015 WC. by my count Japan will finish in top 24 after that, this can change the whole thing in Asian Qualifiers. does anybody calculate the scores without Japan ?

4 minutes ago, phelps said:

 

well, in Sabre a big break can always happen, even between teams which are supposed to be closed...

 

but in the end I think you're right...maybe it's still too early for Iran to get into a WCh Gold medal bout...but I also think that you can build on this team and have quite a good success in the next future...

 

by the way, the dream of a podium place is also gone...ROU just won the Bronze medal bout by a score of 45-35...

 

in any case, very good result for Iran...I guess you can be very satisfied even with this slighltly bitter 4th place...

Yeah sure, I watch fencing for years and never thought one day I will see Iran in a World Championship medal match. 4th place is still great , but as you said 4th place is always bitter sad. mostly because I think Romania was quite beatable for them.

Baher gave a 9-1 to Dolniceanu and 5-1 to the other guy. he pretty much lost the match but it happens, he is less experienced and younger than Abedini and Pakdaman, I still can't believe how these guys lost to Vietnam in Asia !!!? it just shows they are not consistent yet. they can challenge the best of the world though. except for Abedini the rest are quite young . the future can be even better. I just hope Iran also improve in other weapons.

9 minutes ago, phelps said:

 

well, I really think that Iran today have a big, big chance to make the podium...HUN and ROU both have a great no.1 athlete, but the other players are not so strong...

only RUS seem to be better than the rest...the remaining 2 places on the podium are really up for grabs...

well they just lost to Hungary , the score was 31-30 or something then turned to 44-30 !! probably only Iran is capable of losing so many back to back poins in a world championship semifinal. our 3rd guy Baher put Iran in trouble and then both Pakdaman and Abedini were terrible in their last matches. maybe that was too much to ask, Iran is not in that level to be in a world championship final.

wow, from losing to Vietnam in Asian Championship quarterfinal few days ago to beating USA in World Championship quarterfinal today that will be unbelievable if they finish on podium but even 4th place is a historical result for them.

1 hour ago, OlympicsFan said:

What do you think, who will qualify at the last tournament (how many quota places for Germany)?

I have to check the list of all unqualified wrestlers first , as for Germany I was expecting Ohler and Azizsir to qualify already. specially Ohler. he is probably exhausted now, Germany may want to try another wrestler. Eisele was also so close.

Freestyle is much easier than Greco-Roman in general because of lack of depth, that gives Germany a chance, in general I think Germany can qualify 1 or 2 more male wrestlers. maybe even 3.

I will write a list of all notable remaining wrestlers soon but one thing makes Wrestling unique. most of these wrestlers are 6-7 kg heavier than their competition weight in their normal life. which means they have to cut weight for the competition. because of this participating in too many tournaments without time to recovery is really hard. that's probably the reason we had some surprising results in Mongolia. I think it's not only about technique but more about who is more physically fit. specially in Greco-Roman.

Just now, hckosice said:

 

yes you´re right

I see where I did a mistake. I counted also both your hammer throwers Ghalenoui and Moussavi, but it was my bad, because I made a mistake and didn´t noticed the q is small behind their names. http://road-to-rio.com/

 

my apologize. I´ll fix it imediately

it happens, you are doing a great job.

based on this website we also qualified a sprinter in 200m but that guy tested positive for doping in a local competition and is banned now. I assume you didn't count him otherwise we could have 44.

On 3/9/2016 at 9:34 AM, hckosice said:

 

SUMMER OLYMPICS GAMES 2016 TEAM SIZES

• Iran - 45

 

I wonder how come you have 45 for Iran ? Iran has qualified 43 so far.

7 minutes ago, heywoodu said:

I see 8 qualified Iranian female athletes in this list, do you know who they are missing? 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_at_the_2016_Summer_Olympics

 

I would like to write a little news article about it on a Dutch website, but of course it's quite crucial to be correct about which athletes qualified and it seems Wikipedia is not correct yet  

I see 9 there ?! but you can see the names of qualified athletes in first page of this thread

but I can re-write the list again

Zahra Nemati - Archery

Leila Rajabi - Athletics (Shot Put) / btw she is from Belarus, married to an Iranian and became Iranian

Mahsa Javar - Rowing

Najmeh Khedmati - Shooting (Rifle)

Elaheh Ahmadi - Shooting (Rifle)

Mahlagha Jambozorg - Shooting (Rifle)

Golnoush Sebghatollahi - Shooting (Pistol)

Neda Shahsavari - Table Tennis

Kimia Alizadeh - Taekwondo

for Rajabi, Ahmadi and Shahsavari it wll be their second Olympics, Nemati who will be Iran's flagbearer in Rio, is a Paralympic champion.

I don't thnk any other Iranian girl qualifies but there are still slim chance to qualify more in Athletics and Archery,

10 minutes ago, dcro said:

I like the name of Indonesian athlete that qualified today. Memo Memo

She probably doesn't have a surname, her name is simply Memo.

The naming system is strange in some Asian countries.

1 minute ago, heywoodu said:

It would be quite awesome to see an Iranian woman win a medal in Rio, I'm definitely rooting for her to get that far 

These 3 girls I talked about are Kimia Alizadeh (Taekwondo), Najmeh Khedmati (Shooting) and Elaheh Ahmadi (Shooting)

Alizadeh despite being just 17, won Iran's first ever women medal in an Olympic event in 2015 World TKD Championship. She won gold in one of World Grand Prix events after beating Olympic Champion in the final, she is among the favorites for sure, but winning medal or not will depend on the competition day.

Khedmati (also 19) Won gold in Incheon Asian Games , that was Iran's first ever gold medal in an Olympic individual event in Asian Games. She is consistent, usually finishes in top 8 in all World Cups she entered. in the same event we have Elaheh Ahmadi, (6th place in London). of course I know Shooting is highly unpredictable but these two girls are both capable of reaching the final and anything is possible when you reach the final

7 minutes ago, heywoodu said:

 

Does it have something to do with some sort of active encouragement of female sport in Iran in recent years? I mean, is it getting more common for "average women" - people like you and me - to start engaging in sports compared to 10-20 years ago? It's interesting, but good to see this number rising year after year  

Yes sure, That's the main reason,

most people who don't like the Islamic Republic say phantom stories about how good we were before the revolution, but the truth is even before 1979 revolution Iran was very weak, mostly for traditional reasons it was considered a "bad thing" now in new Iran despite having a religious government, the society is different. some of sport federations take their women program as serious as their men's program (still no all of them tough, not even half of them)

another thing is, they re-started women's sport around 1990 with sports like Shooting (which was possible to partcipate with Islamic dress codes)  now they even participate in football and volleyball ! but of course they only can get good results in sports that these dresses won't make obstacles for them like Shooting, Archery, Taekwondo

this time in Rio we even have hope to win medal. we have Youth Olympic Champion, Asian Games Champion and a former World number 1 among these 9 athletes.

Mahsa Javar advanced to the final of Asian Rowing Qualifier in Korea and therefore at least secured a boat for Iran in Rio in this sport.

still no a sure thing for her. since each country can qualify only one boat per gender, which means if Iran also qualify in Women's Lightweight Doubles event, they have to chose one of them, (they will most probably pick the Doubles event) we will find out that tomorrow, but most probably we will have one rower in Rio. disappointing in general.

but with this, Iran will have at least 9 female athletes in Rio, which is a record, in London we had 8 and this 9 number is the biggest ever for Iran. good thing all of them qualified by merit, no wild card. here is the number of Iranian girls in each Olympics.

2012 - 8
2008 - 3
1996-2004 - 1
1988-1992 - 0
1984-1980 - Did not participate
1976 - 4
1968-1972 - 0
1964 - 4
1948-1960 - 0

Remember we had no qualifiers in old days and from 1996 to 2004 Iran only participate in Shooting via wild card so in fact we had our first ever "qualified" female athlete back in 2008. in that Olympic Iran qualified in Archery, Rowing and Taekwondo.

Less than two years ago Iran was #1 in men's single sculls in Asia, now after a year and half , our guy most probably won't even finish in top 8 to qualify !

looks like Iran won't qualify more than one female rower !

my preview about freestyle draw

57

looks like a balanced draw, I see Andreyev (BLR) and Yatsenko (UKR) as favorite in top half , there are other good wrestlers in top half like Metreveli or Safarov, but I think these 2 will determine the qualified wrestler in top half, hard to pick one of them.

we have a very important first round match between Tomar of India and Akgul of Turkey the winner most probably will wrestle Hasanzada of AZE for the Olympic quota in semifinal, beside these 3 guys we have some other good/average wrestlers Mejias of VEN and Chirtoaca (MDA).

I expect Belarus, Turkey and Ukraine to qualify.

65

This is for sure the toughest weight in freestyle, so many notable wrestlers are still without quota. top half is easier as usual, we have former world champion Safaryan, grandpa Kantoyev, Novachkov and Iakobishvili. if I'm not wrong Kantoyev won a world medal 16 years ago for Russia. he is the only "fresh" wrestler among the favorites in top half, Iakobishvili was so close to qualify in Serbia. still I consider Safaryan and Novachkov as favorites here, it's hard to pick one of them.

in bottom half the most notable name is Adam Batirov, we also have Gor of Turkey who won world medal at 70kg, the American Molinaro was also great in their national trials , Sava of Moldova is a 2014 World medalist, we also have Garcia (CAN) and Bucur (ROU) and Maeda (JPN) , that guy Habat of SLO is also not that bad, after all he grew up in USA.

I expect Armenia, Bahrain and Bulgaria to qualify, (I hope I'm wrong about Bahrain, not a fan of mercenaries)

74

having only 9 wrestlers in top half automatically makes it easier, I see Nedealco of MDA as the top favorite here , interesting Belarus once again didn't enter Ali Shabanov,i saw this guy Chytadze before and didn't impress. I think the quota is between MDA, Armenia and that Chinese guy Zhang. we also have Innokentev here, he used to be very dangerous when he was younger.

we have two clear favorites here, Demirtas and of course Kurbanov. Demirtas lost by an accident in Serbia last week but cutting weight once again makes Kurbanov the favorite against him. maybe only the Ukrainian guy can make problems for them.

I expect Uzbekistan, Moldova and Turkey to qualify

86

I see 3 favorites in top half, Ianulov, Ceballos and Sagaliuk, the Ukrainian guy is new to me , he is a replacement for Aldatov. this Venezuelan guy Ceballos is good , he beat World medalists before but still I give more chance to Ianulov.

this guy Cox really impressed in US trials, he can be the next Burroughs ! he is my favorite in bottom half, but he has some serious opponents, first round Armenia, Zvirbulis, Stefan, Kim, Ismanov and few more.

I expect USA, Moldova and Ukraine to qualify.

97

We have a surprising new name here ! actually not a name new, a former World Champion Georgi Ketoyev ,now wrestling for Armenia !!! he was a great wrestler 5-6 years ago, not sure about his current shape. I consider him as the clear favorite here, beside him we have Ceban and Hushtyn here plus that guy Nurov from Macedonia, he is also from Russia and can make surprise here.

bottom half is easier this time, the only Mongolian wrestler tomorrow will be there, so far they hosted the tournament for nothing ! Greco doesn't exist in Mongolia, both of their girls lost today and Khuderbulga is their last wrestler (they already qualified other 5), I think they will do everything to make sure this guy will make it. he is also a good wrestler. beside him I can't see any big name there, maybe Korea or Uzbekistan or even Japan can surprise him. this is mostly battle of Asians in bottom half.

I expect Armenia, Mongolia and Macedonia  to qualify !

125

I think Deng of China is the favorite in top half, the Korean guy Nam and Baran of Poland are right behind him. we also have a former twice bronze medalist from Greece here but this guy to be honest is too weak. he was just lucky to win world medals before. still you can't underestimate him. and in an interesting note, Antoine Jaoude of Brazil is here !!! despite qualifying for Brazil in Greco-Roman ! I guess since they have a naturalized Armenian wrestler in 130 Greco, they told this guy to try his chance in freestyle

bottom half will be between Ligeti, Gagloev and Lazarev. two of them will wrestle in very first round. beside we have some other good wrestlers from Romania and Bulgaria but I see Ligeti as the favorite here. Lazarev after him.

I expect Hungary, China and Kyrgyzstan to qualify.

Some interesting facts about today

out of 18 qualified wrestlers, 12 from Europe, 6 Asia (including all 3 qualifiers in 130kg) . out of 12 European wrestlers only 4 of them had wrestled in Serbia last weekend.

disastrous day for Turkey , so far they have qualified only 1 Greco-Roman wrestler in Kayalp !

still no Greco-Roman quota for Poland !!! they used to be very good in this, the first Olympic I watched (1996) Poland topped the medal table in Greco-Roman !

still no quota for Croatia, they really deserved more than just 0 ! they have a good overall team (not just 1 or 2 good wrestlers)

if you check 2014 medalists, two of 2014 world champions are yet to qualify, our Sourian and Noumonvi of France.

Great day for China, they qualified two more , if their 66kg wrestler qualifies (who is good enough for that) they can have a full team in Rio !!!   China is new in men's wrestling, this is a great result for them.

here is the list of top countries with 4 or more quotas in Greco-Roman

Russia, Egypt 6

China, Cuba, Iran 5

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Hungary, Uzbekistan, Venezuela 4

Looks like Raheleh Asemani can't compete for her Belgium in Rio after all, the quota is still listed for Refugee team.

http://www.worldtaekwondofederation.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/124-Qualified-for-Rio-20162016-0417.pdf

3 hours ago, MantaRaymarc said:

Do you know how will the Iranians choose their men's Greco-Roman 130 kg wrestler?

Too early to say, but since Ghasemi wasn't the first choice , they will probably give Babajanzadeh and maybe Mehdizadeh another chance, maybe sending all of them to an international tournament , they will announce it soon.

1 minute ago, DaniSRB said:

does this tournament miss some good wrestlers in gr?

I'm sure there are, but for some of them their country just decided to send someone else , like Islamov, Etlinger, Chunayev (they sent Aliyev but he could not make weight), Gadabadze and I'm sure there are more.

Sourian completely dominated Angelov for 4 minutes and half and then he ran out of gas and became harmless ! the fact he had to wrestle tough Amoyan before this while Angelov had a bye didn't help at all. Angelov apparently only worked on his stamina ! Korean guy and Tasmuradov threw him easily ! who could predict we qualify 11 out of 12 weights and the only one remaining is our probably best hope for gold in Rio ?!

I still think he can win the gold in Rio if he qualifies but that's a big big if now. I think sending him to another tournament is useless, he is broken now, Saman Abdevali is injured (or was injured at least) without him we don't have any other reliable wrestler to count on him for this quota ! likes of Mardani or Beheshti can't qualify the weight for Iran. only Sourian himself (not this exhausted broken Sourian) and Saman Abdevali can do it

Good that Amir Ghasemi saved the day, he was the 3rd choice behind Bashir and Mehdizadeh ! I wonder if they send him to Rio or he hast wrestle Bashir ?!

ok we have two changes, two wrestlers are added, surprisingly for me, not the names I heard about few hours ago.

they are Iliyan Georgiev (BUL) at 75 and Sulyeman Demirci (TUR) at 98.

btw we have 139 wrestlers in Greco-Roman, 95 from Europe, 30 from Asia, 13 from Pan-American, 0 Africa and just 1 from Oceania !

OK guys, if you are curious why UWW didn't publish the brackets yet, there is a simple answer, because there is a chance we have changes in some weights, apparently some wrestlers from some of their beloved countries could not make weight and failed, UWW gives them another chance to make weight (apparently on Friday morning) , which means they will probably add extra wrestlers to the list, which can change the bracket. it doesn't change draw number for the rest, so these changes won't be revolutionary.

we can wait couple of hours to have the finalized list, but it will be a big shame if they add someone else to the list, I knew they are corrupt but how much ! This is their simplest rule ! you can't make weight in the time of weight-in (which is exactly 30 minutes) you are out. no back door.

btw from what I heard, we will probably have changes in 66kg, not sure about the rest. we will see soon.

5 minutes ago, dcro said:

Will we even qualify in wrestling I wonder... Looks like we got tough draws as per usual.

I think You were really unlucky in Serbia to not qualify even one single wrestler. if you ask me your federation didn't play smart by sending some better wrestlers to Serbia, it was better to save some of them for this tournament , this is what some other countries did.

I think Nenad Zugaj has a good chance tomorrow,  Neven Zugaj has to survive the winner of Julfalakyan-Bacsi match which will be extremely hard . Janecic chance is also not that bad.like Neven Zugaj, if he wins his first two matches I think he will qualify.

OK, looks like we won't get the official draw before tomorrow, so I have to write based on current unofficial brackets.

59

Top half is much easier, I see 6 wrestlers (out of 8) with good chance to qualify, my pick is Tsymbaliuk of Ukraine. then Ciobanu of Moldova, we also have Lashkhi and Berg here but both wrestled and failed in Serbia which decreases their chance

what about bottom half ?! we have 5 world/olympic medalists there, including defending Olympic Champion our Sourian, current Olympic bronze medalist Modos, 2013 World Champion Angelov and 4 times world/olympic medalist Amoyan. these 4 guys plus Tasmuradov are all favorites here. I can't make a prediction here but I really hope Sourian makes it here. winning gold in Rio will be easier than this !

66

Surprisingly Azerbaijan has no entry here, I read somewhere that Hassan Aliyev could not make weight ?! usually the top half is easier but not this time ! Demyankov, Croat guy, China and Lithuania they are all in the same side and will face each other before the 3rd round ! whoever survives there will have a good chance to qualify. in bottom half we have so many average wrestlers , really hard for me to pick a favorite here, maybe Yuksel (TUR) or Belarus guy ,we also have KAZ, POL and BUL here

in this weight my picks are Lithuania, Turkey and China.

75

Very good draw for Cebi of Turkey, even though he still has Belarus, Moldova and Sweden on his way, the Chinese guy Yang Bin is also good, he almost beat the Korean world champion in Asia.

we have a brutal draw in bottom half, Julfalakyan has to wrestle Bacsi and the winner will get the winner of Pyshkov and Zugaj, these 4 guys and Cebi could be my top 5 favorite wrestlers here !

I pick Armenia, Turkey and Hungary to qualify here.

85

I see 4-5 good wrestlers in top half, Zugaj, Hamzatov and the Kazakh guy, there is no weak wrestlers here, others also can surprise

bottom half is tougher as usual, Noumonvi has Turkey in first round , then probably Azizsir of Germany, we also have Janikowski here who was terrible in Serbia, Kazakevic, the Cuban guy , Armenia and Hrustanovic also have chance. even Georgia,

I pick France, Belarus and Germany here.

98

no clear favorite in top half , I give chance to JPN, ITA, BLR, CZE , even LTU. I thnk Hrabovik is slightly the favorite here.

we have Ohler, Nuriyev, Nielsen, Gerogia and few more guys here like Kazakhstan. also Schon of Sweden.

I pick Norway, Belarus and Germany here.

130

balanced draw this time. Euren is the clear favorite in top half China and Georgia can cause problem for him.

in bottom half Chugoshvili is the favorite on paper , I give good chance to our guy Ghasemi, this is our weakest weight in wrestling (probably the only weight we have no realistic chance for medal in Rio) he is not young but inexperienced in important tournaments. he really can beat these guys but I don't count on it.

I expect Sweden to qualify, nothing about the bottom half.

* Note: my predictions are based on latest shape of these wrestlers, but there is one very important factor, some of these wrestlers participated in Euro qualifier last weekend, maybe they are exhausted this is what we don't know . for example Noumonvi is good enough to qualify if he is in shape but I'm not sure if he is. wrestling is tough sport, these wrestlers are usually 6-7 kg heavier than their competition weight, they cut weight for the competition, and it's no easy to cut weight twice in 10 days.

2 hours ago, Pavlo said:

what do you think about Baran?

Robert Baran ? 

I don't consider him a top favorite but he has his chance , this is a wide open competition in this weight, I give more chance to Asian wrestlers just because they are fresh

For unknown reasons they didnt publish the brackets yet. But in participants section you can see draw number which will shows us the final draw. Unless something weird happens there

Sourian got the worst possible draw ! Amoyan then Angelov rhen probably Korea and finally Tasmuradov or Modos in semies. While the top half looks much easier.

130kg draw looks balanced. Ghasemi has ARG then Lam of Hungary. Then UZB and probably Chogushvili in the semies. He is new to this level of competition so its hard for me to predict but he has to qualify.

i will write my whole preview later when they finalize the brackets