OlympicsFan

Actually a pretty good draw for Unruh. She will probably have to beat Brito, Bayardo and Dashidorzhieva to reach the semifinal. I think the bottom half is much more competitive with the two korean girls. Brown, Roman, Wu, Boari and Kawanaka will probably need to beat at least one of the korean girls if they want to have a shot at a medal/reach the semifinal. I think the second quarter is clearly the easiest, with no korean girl.

Its really sad that we didnt have a couple points more, 462 wouldve been the perfect number of points. In case someone needs a last second help for the prediction contest: http://www.si.com/olympics/2016/08/01/rio-2016-olympics-medal-picks-predictions-projected-medal-count This is the best projected medal count i have seen so far.

The question sounds a bit strange. Why "a gold" instead of just "gold"? Australia wins gold in both team pursuits sounds much less "confusing" in my opinion.

71: If Australia doesnt win both golds in team pursuit, then NO would be the right answer? What about the predictions of africaboy and ady48 (page 3), they didnt give any points ...

At least Van den Berg has a very good draw, he could definitely win a medal. He would probably have to beat Plihon and Lee/Das. Kim should definitely make it to the final in the top half, the bottom half seems much more open. Pasqualucci, Ku, Van der Ven, Furukawa, D'Ameida and Ellison all could make it to the final, maybe even Worth.

Yes, very disappointing, i thought that D'Ameida would win a medal. Netherlands were also pretty disappointing, some might have predicted that they would win a medal, which seems pretty unlikely (but of course not impossible) right now. I predicted gold for South Korea, silver for Italy and bronze for USA, so my prediction is still possible..

1) Olympic gold medal is pretty much meaningless in football, so why should players want to spend their holidays to win a meaningless tournament? 2) Clubs dont have to alllow their players to participate at the olympics, because it isnt an official FIFA tournament and of course they want that their players miss preparation for the new season or even get injured, so they normally wont allow their players to participate. 3) Players like Neuer, Müller or Özil already played at the european championships and its obvious that they dont want to play both tournaments + their clubs wouldnt allow it, because they would miss the whole preparation and would need holidays afterwards, so they would probably also miss the first few league matches. 4) You really never heard of Sven Bender or Lars Bender? They both played for the german national team multiple times and both play for pretty famous clubs. 5) German head coach wasnt "allowed" to nominate players who got transferred this summer (for example Timo Werner or Loris Karius), players who already played at the european championships (Tah, Sane, Weigl, Kimmich, Draxler), players who play the qualification for the Europa League/Champions League (Weiser or Dahoud for example) or more than 2 players from the same club (for that reason someone like Johannes Geis wasnt nominated). In addition to that there are also some injured players like Stendera or Rüdiger. Unless the olympic games become on official FIFA tournament, the quality will never get much better. Even then it probably wouldnt change much, because european championships take place the same year and all the european players rate the european championships MUCH higher than the olympic games + their clubs wouldnt allow them to play both, so we will have to live with the fact that european top players will probably never play at the olympics. I actually think that football should be out of the olympics, but as long as it is part of the olympics, i am very happy that countries like Mexico or Nigeria, that will never win a world cup, are able to at least win the olympics.

Sounds like a pretty good course for Jung? The bamboo keyhole looks very difficult, do you think that some favorites might have a problem with it? I think we dont have an obstacle like that very often?

What did you predict in the predictions contest? My picks: Mens team AA: Japan/GB for gold, China for bronze Mens individual AA: Uchimura (who else?), Larduet, Verniaiev I think Verniaiev is the only one who could potentially challenge Uchimura, but he is too inconsistent and often not clean enough. If one of them messes up (Uchimura would probably need his worst performance since forever to not medal), then Deng Shudi or Whitlock could sneak in for a medal. I dont know what to expect from Belyavskiy, Sasaki and Tanaka, but they are probably to far off to beat at least 3 of those i mentioned before even on a perfect day. Womens team AA: USA for gold, China normally for silver, Russia/GB for bronze. Russian team doesnt look to spectacular on paper, but normally they should still win bronze or maybe even challenge for silver. Womens individual AA: Biles miles ahead of everyone else. Most think that Hernandez will win a medal, but i am not so sure. In my opinion she was massively overscored at the american trials (especially on uneven bars). I dont know if Douglas plans to do the AA, but i think on a good day she might even be able to qualify for the final instead of Hernandez. Without Iordache bronze should be pretty open. In my opinion it will be between Mustafina and Chunsong. For me Melnikova could be the dark horse, she was very good at the european championships recently. For me it would be a huge surprise if anyone else (one of the japanese/british girls/Steingruber/Andrade would win a medal), but lets see, our brazilian friend seems to be pretty confident about Andrade.

I feel really sorry for all those players who wont be able to play in Rio. Whats the sense of playing at the olympics if you dont even get to the city with the olympic village?

Its really great to see how enthusiastic those mexican players are, the olympic games really seem to mean something for them.

I hope that Mexico or Brazil wont win the gold. Olympic games are the perfect tournament for nations that dont have a chance to win the world cup and Mexico already won in 2012. I hope that South Korea, Argentina or Portugal will win the gold. Our team has only trained together 6 times so far and we didnt have any friendly matches, so i dont expect much. So far we got pretty unlucky, Laudehr and Goretzka (probably) both out due to injury, both were very important players for us. I dont think that we will nominate another player to replace Goretzka, at best some complete no-name.

1) If i remeber correctly, then Holzdeppe jumped 5.70m in his first attempt and then ended the competition, so we actually dont know how high he could currently jump. In addition to that 5.70m is a very good result for his first competition after his comeback and he has still some time to improve + i think there was a pretty strong wind (looking at the sprints results), so the conditions probably werent very good for pole vaulting (Dilla and Scherbath both were far off their best results this season). In my opinion only Lavillenie and Kendricks have been somewhat consistent this year, Barber was up and down (much less dominant than last year) and Braz didnt show much/anything at big competition this year (Diamond League). All of them could jump 5.90m or higher in Rio, but i think its more likely that 5.85m will be enough for a medal. 2) I think Storl will fight for bronze against Walsh. In my opinion Kovacs will win gold with 22m or more and Crouser will win silver with 22m or more. Storl/Walsh should win bronze with about 21.80m. 3) Schwanitz could end up without a medal. Gong, Adamas and Carter are all able to score 20m or more. I think she will win bronze behind Adams and Gong in the end. 4) In mens discus throw i honestly expect gold for R. Harting, silver for Malachowski and bronze for Milanov. C. Harting could win bronze, but so far he has been pretty disappointing at major competitions. I would be shocked if R. Harting would end up without a medal. 5) In womens discus throw i dont know what to expect from Caballero, she could win gold again or miss a medal. I think she is the only one who could challenge Perkovic. Bronze should be between Fischer, Samuels and Perez. 6) In mens javelin throw anything can happen. Röhler should win a medal and on paper he is the favorite for gold, but Yego, Walcott, Sirmais or Ruuskanen could beat him on a good day. Vetter seems to be pretty inconsistent, but he could also win a medal. If Germany would win no medal in this event, then it would be pretty disappointing for me. 7) Womens javelin throw is very open, but i think the gold will sadly go to Khaladovich. Silver and bronze should be between Spotakova, Stahl, Hussong, Palameika and Viljoen. 8) Womens hammer throw is very weak this year, i think Heidler should win silver. She shouldnt be too nervous, considering that its her last big competition and she has already won an olympic medal + she cant win gold anyway. 9) Abele should be the favorite for bronze, i dont think that Freimuth or Kazmirek will fight for bronze. I dont know whether Abele will really be able to perform at his best level two times in one season, so i think its gonna be pretty much 50/50 between him and Mayer. In womens heptathlon the medal will very likely go to Ennis-Hill, Johnson-Thompson and Theisen-Eaton. If one of them messes up, then Schäfer/Vetter or the girl from Latvia should win bronze. 10) I agree about the mens relay. At least USA, Jamaica, GB, South Africa and Canada are clearly faster on paper and its very unlikely that 3 or more of them will underperform/lose the baton. Japan, France and China should be about as strong as Germany, so even making the final could be difficult. 11) I dont think that it will take 41.6s to win bronze on the womens side. 42.0s should be enough and the german girls can definitely do that. GB is faster on paper and the Netherlands will be the other relay fighting for bronze. I would give the german relay about a 40% chance for bronze. 12) I think at least one out of Krause/Roleder will win gold and that the other one will also win a medal, they are both in a much better position than last year before the world championships. Womens 100m hurdles should be pretty open without Harrison and i doubt that the 2 african girls will be able to run about 9:00 in Rio, considering the conditions we will probably have. 13) I just hope that Linke will be able to perform at his best this time, then he should at least finish top 8, which would be a good result. I think gold and silver will go to Spain/China (assuming that Diniz will focus on 50km race walking), bronze should be between Canada, Japan and maybe Australia. 14) In my opinion Heß is the favorite for bronze, but only if Pichardo wont be able to get into his best shape, otherwise the medals will be out of reach for Heß (at about 17.50m) and will go to Taylor, Claye and Pichardo. Evora, Compaore and Martinez all have been pretty underwhelming so far, lets hope that it wont change in Rio ... 15) Jungfleisch basically only had one good competition this year. The last couple of years she always peaked at the right time and was able to improve her PB at the most important competition of the year. If she will be able to do it again, then she will win at least silver in my opinion. At the moment i would put my money on Lowe, Cunningham and Beitia + maybe Licwinko.

Sorry, please explain. Is this some sort of insult and what does that have to do with my comment?

We already had a doping case in beach volleyball ...

I actually said that Harutyunyan has a good draw and should at least reach the semifinal, it would be extremely disappointing if he would lose to Biyarslanov.

You didnt predict a medal for Fontijn or the Taylor-Alekseevna final? Some people also might have predicted medals for Thapa and Ramirez or Stevenson and Asanau.

Kerber got horrible draws. In doubles she would have to beat Errani/Vinci and Williams sisters to win a medal. In singles i doubt that she can beat Bouchard/Stephens.

Draws for the german boxers: Mens fly (Touba): Konki-Aloyan-Emigdio-Veitia-Mamishzada Mens light welterweight (Harutyunyan): Biyarslanov-Chadi-Toledo-Dunaytsev Mens welterweight (Marutjan): Maestre-Mangiacapre-Yeleussinov-Baghirov-Rabii/Iglesias Mens light heavyweight (Michel): Ramirez-Ward-Bauderlique-La Cruz-Niyazymbetov/Rasulov Mens heavyweight (Graf): Peralta-Savon-Levit-Tishchenko Mens super heavyweight (Pfeifer): Laurent-Yoka-Nestor-Hrgovic-Dychko/Joyce Touba, Michel and Pfeifer will probably lose in the 2nd round. Graf has a horrible draw and could very well lose in the first round. Harutyunyan actually has a decent draw, but should still lose in the second round. Harutyunyan has a good draw and should at least reach the semifinal.

So possible semifinals are: Womens fly: Adams vs. Cancan Laopeam vs. Shekerbekova Womens lightweight: Taylor vs. Aleeksevna Mossely vs. Belyakova Womens middleweight: Shields vs. El-Mardi Li Qian vs. Fontijn Mens light flyweight: Barnes vs. Argilagos Yegorov vs. Dusmatov Mens fly: Mamishzada vs. Flissi Aloyan vs. Veitia Mens bantam: Conlan vs. Stevenson Akhmadaliev vs. Jiawei Mens light: Alvarez vs. Conceicao Selimov vs. Otgondalai Mens light welterweight: Dunaytsev vs. Masuk Toledo vs. Harutyunyan Mens welterweight: Rabii vs. Iglesias Baghirov vs. Yeleussinov Mens middleweight: Lopez vs. Chebotarev O'Reilly vs. Melikuziev Mens light heavyweight: La Cruz vs. Ward Rasulov vs. Niyazymbetov Mens heavyweight: Tishchenko vs. Abdullayev Levit vs. Savon Mens super heavyweight: Yoka vs. Hrgovic Dychko vs. Joyce Some people might want to change their predictions.

Yeah, thats one of the easiest questions, but there are at least 3 safer bets i remeber (one in athletics, one in judo and one that is more general). We will see about judo, we always have been (surprisingly) good in judo at the olympics and i think this time it wont change.

Ryzih (womens pole vault), Schäfer (womens heptathlon), Stahl (second medal in womens javelin throw), Heidler (womens hammer throw), Linke (mens 20km race walking), Onnen (mens high jump), Heß (mens triple jump) and Vetter (second medal in mens javelin throw) also have a chance for a medal in my opinion. Especially Schäfer, Stahl, Heidler, Heß and Vetter are among the 4-6 biggest favorites for a medal in my opinion. German athletes are ranked top 3 in the following events: Womens 4x100m relay Womens long jump Womens high jump Womens shot put Womens discus throw Womens hammer throw Womens javelin throw 2 x Mens discus throw 2 x mens javelin throw Mens decathlon I honestly would be disappointed with 8 medals. Not all of them will win a medal, but most of them should and 2 or 3 out of Storl/Holzdeppe/Roleder/Krause/Schäfer/Stahl should also win a medal.

I agree about athletics, but 3-4 medals are definitely possible in judo (Frey, Vargas-Koch and Trajdos all have a very good chance in my opinion) and 8 medals are realistic in caneoing (mens c1 1000m, mens k2 1000m, mens k4 1000m, womens k2 500m, womens k4 500m + 3 out of mens k2 200m, mens k1 1000m, mens c2 1000m, mens c1 (Tasiadis), mens c2 (Anton/Benzien) and womens k1 (Pfeifer). I think we can definitely win more than 5 medals in equestrian (2 x individual eventing, team eventing, team dressage, 2 x individual dressage would already be 6 medals without jumping), more than 2 medals in table tennis (mens team, mens singles, womens team) and more than 3 medals in shooting. On the other hand we wont win 2 medals in volleyball, 2 medals in tennis, 2 medals in sailing, 2 medals in fencing, 1 medal in badminton or 1 medal in triathlon. 1-3 medals in boxing, 2 medals in football and 3-7 medals in swimming/diving are also a bit unrealistic.

It wasnt really the goal. At the beginning of each olympic period the federations get their funding according to the number of medals they won at the last olympics and then they make an "agreement" with DOSB about the number of medals they are "supposed" to win at the next olympic games with the money they get. 86 medals wouldve been the "goal" if all federations wouldve won the maximum number of medals, but no one in Germany expected that we could/would win 86 medals. This time our goal is to win at least as many medals as in 2012, so at least 44 medals. https://www.dosb.de/fileadmin/Bilder_allgemein/Veranstaltungen/Olympisch_Spiele_2016/Ziele_Rio_2016_25_04_2016.pdf https://www.dosb.de/fileadmin/Bilder_allgemein/DOSB_Start/olympia/praesentation_sotschi_rio_2.pdf By looking at the second link, you can see that DOSB expected 27-42 medals in Sochi, but no one would say that the goal was to win 42 medals. Thats just the number of medals that we couldve won in a perfect case. For the Rio olympics our "goal" is to win 42-71 medals (link 2, page 7). You could say that 71 is the number of medal contenders, predicted 4 years before the start of the games.

What about Pulsabsakul in womens +75kg and Mosquera in mens -62kg, they both arent on the entry list?