Nickyc707

And you think the Dutch, French and Swiss teams didn't?  

There is a lot of nonsense being spoken about how GB is doing so far. How many likely medals have we actually missed? Jade Jones has been mentioned but she was up against an opponent who she has had problems against in the past and who won a bronze medal in Rio when competing for Iran. Basically she hasn't able to compete in international competition for three years while her refugee status is being sorted out or she would almost certainly have been seeded here. Jones's defeat was a disappointment but can't be considered a shattering shock given the quality of her opponent.
 
Peter McGrail has also been mentioned. Again he was unlucky to draw another tough opponent. It was his loss in the resumed qualifying tournament that cost him as he would almost certainly have been one of the four seeded boxers otherwise. He was an example of an athlete who was hurt by the delayed Olympics. Others like judo's Chelsie Giles benefited from it.
 
In terms of sports it was obvious that rowing was going to be weaker following retirements after 2016. 33 out of 41 rowing squad members are making their olympic debuts. I still believe 2-3 medals are possible starting with the men's four. The eight haven't suddenly become bad rowers overnight and will I think turn it round. The women's lightweight double sculls and maybe the pair and men's quad may also still challenge for medals.
 
In taekwondo we only had five competitors to begin with and despite Jones's loss we could still match the three medals we won last time with Walkden still to come and both Williams and Cho capable of medalling on their day.
 
In swimming some are suggesting that we are not doing as well as we did at the Europeans which is not surprising given that this is a global event. We have plenty of medal chances to come from Peaty, Scott (×2), Dean, Proud, Renshaw, Dawson and maybe Wood, Guy, Wilby and Greenbank. Add the men's 4x200 free, 4x100 medley and mixed medley and we still have strong reasons to believe that we can surpass the six medals we won in Rio.
 
Overall we are going to do worse than we did in London and Rio but the period after hosting a games is always difficult as top athletes retire or in some cases go on too long. Rowing, gymnastics and cycling are all going to do less well, partly for this reason but also because other countries have seen what we have done and upped their games. Added to which many of the coaches who contributed to that success have now gone on to work for other countries. There will be some compensation from swimming and maybe boxing but all in all I'm expecting a medal haul of around 50 which I think will be surpassed only by the USA, China, Russia and Japan with their vastly greater resources.
 
Instead of hand wringing after just two days of competition  wait until we see how the Games pan out as a whole before casting judgement. There have already been plenty of shocks as some of us were predicting after the disruptions of the past two years and there will be more to come.
 
 

First Austrian gold medal in cycling since 1896 as I'm sure Grassmarket will remember vividly. Of course that was a 12 hour race rather than a four hour sprint like today's road race.

There is a lot of nonsense being spoken about how GB is doing so far. How many likely medals have we actually missed? Jade Jones has been mentioned but she was up against an opponent who she has had problems against in the past and who won a bronze medal in Rio when competing for Iran. Basically she hasn't able to compete in international competition for three years while her refugee status is being sorted out or she would almost certainly have been seeded here. Jones's defeat was a disappointment but can't be considered a shattering shock given the quality of her opponent.
 
Peter McGrail has also been mentioned. Again he was unlucky to draw another tough opponent. It was his loss in the resumed qualifying tournament that cost him as he would almost certainly have been one of the four seeded boxers otherwise. He was an example of an athlete who was hurt by the delayed Olympics. Others like judo's Chelsie Giles benefited from it.
 
In terms of sports it was obvious that rowing was going to be weaker following retirements after 2016. 33 out of 41 rowing squad members are making their olympic debuts. I still believe 2-3 medals are possible starting with the men's four. The eight haven't suddenly become bad rowers overnight and will I think turn it round. The women's lightweight double sculls and maybe the pair and men's quad may also still challenge for medals.
 
In taekwondo we only had five competitors to begin with and despite Jones's loss we could still match the three medals we won last time with Walkden still to come and both Williams and Cho capable of medalling on their day.
 
In swimming some are suggesting that we are not doing as well as we did at the Europeans which is not surprising given that this is a global event. We have plenty of medal chances to come from Peaty, Scott (×2), Dean, Proud, Renshaw, Dawson and maybe Wood, Guy, Wilby and Greenbank. Add the men's 4x200 free, 4x100 medley and mixed medley and we still have strong reasons to believe that we can surpass the six medals we won in Rio.
 
Overall we are going to do worse than we did in London and Rio but the period after hosting a games is always difficult as top athletes retire or in some cases go on too long. Rowing, gymnastics and cycling are all going to do less well, partly for this reason but also because other countries have seen what we have done and upped their games. Added to which many of the coaches who contributed to that success have now gone on to work for other countries. There will be some compensation from swimming and maybe boxing but all in all I'm expecting a medal haul of around 50 which I think will be surpassed only by the USA, China, Russia and Japan with their vastly greater resources.
 
Instead of hand wringing after just two days of competition  wait until we see how the Games pan out as a whole before casting judgement. There have already been plenty of shocks as some of us were predicting after the disruptions of the past two years and there will be more to come.
 
 

5   3
 6   0
 
Q-Fs
 
 v 
 v 
 v 
 v 

Mixed Team
 
 5   3
 5   3

To which the appropriate solution is not that you too insult whole countries, regions, and peoples (sadly I cannot qoute here all those instances because a good number of your posts have been removed because of this very readon)

Yes, you can totally predict a shoot off for gold using data 

Hannah Mills (Sailing) & Mohamed Sbihi (Rowing)

In the GB senior squad at 12 and a World Cup winner at just 15. A precocious talent. I feel really sorry for her but at least she only has to wait three years for another opportunity.

Not going to get into politics beyond denying any culpability for electing the current Govt.  I suspect that Gracenotes may be closer to the mark than they were in 2016 although they themselves have noted the difficulties caused by the lack of international competition and in particular the absence of many of the top Chinese athletes when making their forecasts. Of course it's not only Chinese athletes, e.g. current Olympic champion Giles Scott took a three year leave of absence from Finn class sailing and so isn't rated as a potential medallist. 
 
Longer term I'm hoping sport won't suffer funding cuts but not for the reasons you suggest might drive Boris & Co.

The GB shooters have been in Tokyo since last Monday but I was surprised not to see Amber in the image they tweeted from the airport. Now we know why she wasn't there.

She seems to have been around forever but she's still only 23 so at least potentially there may be more chances ahead of her.

Equestrian Horses arrived.
 
https://www.insider.com/olympic-horses-travel-tokyo-plane-passports-in-flight-meals-grooming-2021-7

Appearances: 29th. One of three countries together with France and Switzerland to have competed at every summer and winter Olympics. 
 
Team : 376 (176 men, 200 women). GB's largest delegation to an overseas OG and the first time women competitors have exceeded the number of men.
 
Oldest: Carl Hester, 54 (DOB 29/6/67) - Equestrian
 
Youngest: Sky Brown, 13 (DOB 12/7/08) - Skateboarding
 
Longevity: Carl Hester is competing at his 6th Olympic Games since his debut in 1992. Only one GB athlete has competed at more Games.
 
Archer Naomi Folkard is competing at her 5th consecutive Games. Only two female GB athletes have competed at more Games.
 
Siblings:
 
1/ Tom & Emily Ford (Rowing)
 
2/ Jennifer & Jessica Gadirova  (Gymnastics)
 
3/ Charlotte & Mathilda Hodgkins-Byrne (Rowing)
 
4/ Joe & Max Litchfield (Swimming)
 
5/ Luke & Pat McCormack (Boxing)
 
6/ Harry & Hannah Martin (Hockey)
 
7/ Andy & Jamie Murray (Tennis)
 
8/ Tiffany Porter & Cindy Sember (Athletics)
 
9/ Hannah & Jodie Williams (Athletics)
 
10/ Adam & Simon Yates (Cycling)
 
Twins:
 
1/ Jennifer & Jessica Gadirova (Gymnastics)
 
2/ Luke & Pat McCormack (Boxing)
 
3/ Adam & Simon Yates (Cycling)
 
Trivia: The oldest athlete ever to win an Olympic medal in athletics was "Tebbs" Lloyd Johnson who was from my home town of Melton Mowbray in the English Midlands. He was aged 48 years and 15 days when he won a bronze medal in the 50Km walk at the 1948 Games.

Georgia? Trump will be asking for a recount.

Changing sports there was another boost for your selection Sky Brown who won gold at the X Games yesterday.
 
 

Jonnie Brownlee is a romantic hoice, but not a rational one - frankly, Alex Yee is a MUCN likelier winner at the moment - if he makes the front group on the bike after the swim - and that IF is the key - , on current form, he's slight favourite - Vincent Luis is not close to his form leading up to the Pandemic. Mola of course will always be a threat.
 
Brownlee, however, will be in his element in the relay - he's actually much stronger over sprint distances than Ali Brownlee ever was, and stick him after the superswimmer Learmouth....

Yes, I'm far far more confident in picking medallists than gold medallists!
 
There are also some imponderables like who still makes it as far as Tokyo including competitors from other nations, who avoids health issues when they arrive and how athletes deal with the weather conditions in outdoor events, especially after so little competition during the past two years.
 
The potential for surprises is probably greater than at any OG I can remember.
 
PS Talking of imponderables I'm really looking forward to seeing how Tom Pidcock performs in the MTB.

I see a lot of that for GB actually - they'll be in a scrap for gold, which they might lose, but hard to see no medal at all - both Duncan Scott's events fall into that class, for example, as do both Triathlon relay, Women's Omnium, Madison and Team Pursuit (the latter maybe less of a battle)

Firstly, I'd agree that potentially this could be Ireland's greatest OG, particularly as they are less dependent on boxing to achieve success this time around. Hopefully you're right about the men's pommel. We don't want a repeat of the EC for either gymnast!
 
I don't disagree on your other GB choices and there are others. For instance, in the women's Madison Kenny and Archibald will be closely marked like the Dutch but both pairs are so good it seems a decent bet that they'll pick up two of the medals between them.

All very, very good calls - Mixed relay triathlon in particular, given recent Yee form. I'd be tempted to add Laugher & Goodfellow, 3m synchro, Duncan Scott, 200 free, mens  4x200 freestyle, mixed 4x100 medley and the women's 4 x 100m relay in athletics, Sky Brown, skateboarding, Kate French in Modern Pentathlon, Duncan Scott (again) 200 IM, Max Whitlock in pommel horse, and Laura Trott-Kenny in Omnium.
 
For my primary team, Ireland -
 
I think we're about to have a hell of a games, honestly (by our standards, anyway) - LM2x, W1x and W4x, Kellie Harrington, quite possibly Michaela Walsh, Rhys McClenaghan in pommel horse, all really solid medal shots, with several of the boy boxers a good shout as well. Our record for a single games is 6 medals, our gold record for a single games is 3, and they don't really count (Michelle de Bruin Smith), the record after that is 2 golds. I think those numbers,  2 golds and 6 total medals could genuinely be under threat at this games, especially if we can sneak a medal in Equestrianism or road cycling (long shots both, but both possible)....
 
I forsee, in particular, a couple of possibly intriguing GBR v IRL battles - Pommel, Harrington v Dubois, Possible Puspure v Thornley

In no particular order: Men's Eight (Rowing), Women's Team Pursuit (Cycling) and Adam Peaty - 100m breaststroke (Swimming).
 
Ten others who I'm confident will medal, again in no particular order: Dina Asher-Smith 200m (Athletics), Pat McCormack - Welterweight (Boxing), Lauren Price - Middleweight (Boxing), Liam Heath - K1 200m (Canoeing), Helen Glover & Polly Swann - Women's pair (Rowing), Giles Scott - Finn class (Sailing), Men's 4x100m medley (Swimming), Jade Jones - 57kg (Taekwondo), Georgia Taylor-Brown (or either of her teammates) (Triathlon), Mixed relay (Triathlon).

And Jamie is in!