JoshMartini007

Here's a comparison relative to 2024 (I removed the new team sports to make it more comparable). This ignores Belarus and Russia. Largest Increases Relative to 2024 1. +58 2. +44 3. +31 4. +29 4. +29 6. +28 7. +27 8. +24 9. +22 10. +21 10. +21 Unsurprisingly, the United States is expected to see the largest increase thanks to host quotas. It's not as massive as previous host nations, but that's because they don't need host quotas for most sports. South Africa is looking at a big increase, but only if they accept the water polo quotas this time around. Largest Decreases Relative to 2024 1. -135 2. -43 3. -38 4. -33 5. -31 6. -29 7. -28 8. -26 8. -26 10. -23 10. -23 Again, no surprise to see France topping the list as they no longer benefit from host quotas. Ireland takes heavy losses not only by losing two large team events, but is generally down in most sports. Interestingly, Italy has the same number of large team events, but it's the drop in athletics and rowing which caused it to be so high up in the list.

To revive some discussion here, I did my own qualifying simulation, here's a Google sheet of the team sizes (and discipline breakdown). https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W2TihYgttZ3O64VNUzJsonRIkUlz7vJdL0Ago6bJOpg/edit?usp=sharing Some notes: - Qualification was simulated based on the most current qualification document (2028 or 2024) available. For new events I went by as much information available, upholding the Olympic values for diversity. - This was based by the current performance of athletes/teams. Injured athletes or athletes which took a year off were not considered. This will given future updates a more dynamic feeling. - Until we receive an update from the IOC, Belarussian and Russian athletes will be considered if the sport federation currently allows them to compete. - As with previous Olympics, refugee athletes will be given extra quotas to compete unless qualified normally. - For tripartite quotas, I generally gave it to the best eligible athlete. In reality, this doesn't always happen as it is application based so a lower ranked athlete may be given the quota or a reallocation may occur. Over the next week I'll take a deeper dive into these numbers for some interesting facts.

To try and normalize it here's the points/NHL skater (no goalies) 1. 39.4 2. 30.8 3. 30.5 4. 28.8 5. 27.9 6. 21.8 7. 20.7 8. 19.7 9. 17.0 10. 13.1 11. 7.0 12. 0.0

Looks like the World Cup series will have an increase in importance.

About half of the players competing at the Olympics will be from the NHL. From the NHL perspective that's around 15% of the league. No wonder they keep pushing the IOC for more advertising rights.

Almost lost to Latvia again...

An ISU World Championships would be a lot easier to host than an FIS World Championships. The largest hurdle for host cities is whether or not they have a speed skating venue. The other disciplines can be held in generic large indoor arenas.

For men I would decline HP, Moguls, SS/BA, Skicross and for the women it would be Aerial, Mogulsx2, SS/BA

The strategy is paying off. The coaching staff calculated that it is a lot easier to finish in the top 4 at the North America Cup than the top 16 at the World Cup. We are about 80 points ahead of who along with and both riders would have to leap frog our second man. We may or may not hold on, but we are playing smart given our current weakness in the event.

Inflation is also a thing, especially in 2020 and 2021. 180 million in 2020 dollars is 216 million today so we are still down ~20% relative to 2020-21.

How did CONCACAF get 3 women's quotas, especially since the united states are qualified as hosts. Asia should get 3 full quotas. Europe should also get 5.

Not liking this compression score idea... You are basically punishing someone for being too good. Kite/windsurfing is okay...

Maybe by "evolve" they meant for them to prepare for a world without outdoor ice or snow.

Huge upsets to end the tournament.

Handball literally gave Australia a host quota back in 2000 so they'll give it to anyone. Field hockey in comparison has been more restrictive. They require the United States to have a world ranking of at least 25, which the women should easily meet and the men are likely to meet.

The rugby sevens qualifiers has a logic hole. In the past, in order to prevent a weak North American team from qualifying, they stipulate that should two North American nations qualifying through the World Series (basically Canada and the United States) then there won't be a direct qualifier. Here because they have the host quota at a lower priority the way it is written is if the United States finishes in the top 4 (and not Canada) then Canada would be unable to qualify through the continental qualifier. Of course, I doubt that is true (and this can be easily fixed by putting the host quota as the highest priority) and Canada will be allowed to qualify as normal.

The continental quotas have a max of 1 athlete per NOC. As only Egypt is competitive, it makes sense for them to only get 1 quota.

Yeah, it's quite an oversight. I can look past unlikely scenarios, for example what happens if the United States wins the 2026-27 Pro League, but Argentina qualifying through the Women's Pro League and winning gold at the Pan Am Games with the United States finishing second is a very likely scenario, possibly as high as a 50% chance.

From my experience it is better to go by what they intended rather than what was written. The point being is that should the United States be in a position to take the Pan American quota, the quota will be reallocated to the world qualifiers. It can be a bit frustrating, but these documents aren't exactly written to define what happens in every scenario, even though they should. If someone from the IOC/sport federations are here, I'd love to proof read your documents .

No, in both cases the United States will qualify and the Pan American quota will go to the world qualifiers

Sweden quite commonly rejects qualified quotas if they believe the athlete has no chance of reaching top 8.

Men's Rankings (after 2 games) 2-0 2-0 1-1 1-1 1-1 1-1 0-2 0-2 Women's Rankings (after 2 games) 2-0 2-0 1-1 1-1 1-1 1-1 0-2 0-2

"Put your hands in the air" Hands are definitely not in the air

Mexico and Canada not trying to get too close in the selfie

I was thinking Carney got lucky