Ogreman

Country Total Ranking points Women's ranking points (Ranking) Men's rankings points (Ranking) Boxers (W,M) Projected Qualifiers (Qualified) Realistic qualification ceiling Projected Olympic medallists Olympic Medal ceiling 1 Uzbekistan 623 131 (19) 492 (1) 13 (6,7) 8 (4) 10 6 8 2 Kazakhstan 593 219 (10) 374 (2) 13 (6,7) 9 (2) 11 5 6 3 Ireland 583 355 (2) 228 (10) 12 (6,6) 10 (5) 11 5 6 4 USA 540 172 (14) 368 (3) 13 (6,7) 11 (5) 13 3 5 5 China 516 357 (1) 159 (21) 13 (6,7) 9 (7) 10 5 6 6 France 505 245 (5) 260 (6) 13 (6,7) 8 (7) 11 2 6 7 Brazil 504 228 (9) 276 (5) 13 (6,7) 11 (9) 11 2 6 8 Colombia 471 234 (6) 237 (8) 13 (6,7) 9 (3) 10 1 4 9 Great Britain 465 231 (8) 234 (9) 13 (6,7) 7 (3) 11 0 4 10 India 448 267 (3) 181 (18) 13 (6,7) 6 (4) 9 2 6 11 Turkey 436 256 (4) 180 (20) 13 (6,7) 8 (6) 8 2 4 12 Thailand 419 233 (7) 186 (16) 11 (6,5) 7 (4) 9 2 4 13 Italy 400 213 (12) 187 (15) 13 (6,7) 6 (4) 8 2 3 14 Ukraine 384 140 (18) 244 (7) 13 (6,7) 4 (1) 10 2 3 15 Bulgaria 358 155 (17) 203 (14) 10 (4,6) 4 (3) 8 2 4 16 Cuba 313 11 (68) 302 (4) 10 (3,7) 5 (3) 7 1 3 17 Spain 302 86 (27) 216 (13) 10 (3,7) 6 (2) 7 0 1 18 Chinese Taipei 280 219 (10) 61 (40) 8 (4,4) 6 (4) 7 2 2 19 Armenia 266 85 (28) 181 (18) 13 (6,7) 4 (0) 7 0 2 20 Germany 263 79 (33) 184 (17) 12 (5,7) 3 (0) 9 1 1 21 Mongolia 254 131 (19) 123 (27) 13 (6,7) 4 (2) 6 1 1 21 Poland 254 174 (13) 80 (35) 13 (6,7) 6 (0) 7 0 0 23 Azerbaijan 250 29 (55) 221 (12) 12 (5,7) 3 (2) 6 0 1 24 Canada 247 170 (15) 77 (36) 13 (6,7) 3 (2) 6 1 1 25 Australia 245 119 (24) 126 (25) 13 (6,7) 12 (12) 12 0 1 26 Philippines 243 90 (26) 153 (22) 10 (4,6) 3 (1) 5 0 3 27 Georgia 230 7 (77) 223 (11) 8 (1,7) 3 (1) 6 1 2 28 Serbia 225 128 (21) 97 (32) 11 (6,5) 2 (2) 6 0 0 29 Japan 224 106 (25) 118 (28) 10 (5,5) 5 (2) 7 0 2 30 Mexico 208 68 (37) 140 (24) 11 (5,6) 3 (2) 4 1 1 31 North Korea 202 165 (16) 37 (52) 9 (5,4) 2 (2) 3 1 2 32 Algeria 193 120 (23) 73 (37) 12 (5,7) 5 (5) 5 1 1 33 Dominican Republic 189 38 (46) 151 (23) 13 (6,7) 3 (1) 5 0 2 34 Venezuela 184 121 (22) 63 (39) 9 (6,3) 2 (1) 5 0 0 35 Tajikistan 148 34 (52) 114 (30) 12 (5,7) 3 (2) 4 0 1 36 Croatia 143 33 (53) 110 (31) 8 (3,5) 2 (1) 3 0 1 37 Ecuador 140 23 (59) 117 (29) 11 (4,7) 3 (2) 4 0 0 38 Hungary 129 36 (51) 93 (33) 11 (4,7) 2 (2) 5 0 0 39 Jordan 127 3 (90) 124 (26) 8 (2,6) 1 (0) 3 0 0 40 Morocco 123 81 (31) 42 (46) 13 (6,7) 3 (3) 3 0 0 40 Mozambique 123 85 (28) 38 (48) 10 (5,5) 2 (1) 3 0 0 40 Argentina 123 82 (30) 41 (47) 10 (6,4) 1 (0) 4 0 0 43 South Korea 117 80 (32) 37 (52) 13 (6,7) 1 (0) 1 0 0 44 Denmark 113 28 (56) 85 (34) 5 (2,3) 1 (1) 3 1 1 45 Romania 98 70 (35) 28 (62) 6 (3,3) 1 (1) 3 0 1 46 Norway 97 45 (44) 52 (44) 5 (2,3) 1 (0) 3 0 0 47 Sweden 85 70 (35) 15 (83) 4 (3,1) 2 (1) 3 0 0 48 Nigeria 84 55 (41) 29 (60) 9 (6,3) 3 (3) 3 0 0 49 Vietnam 80 71 (34) 9 (97) 8 (5,3) 1 (0) 1 0 1 50 Puerto Rico 79 57 (39) 22 (71) 6 (3,3) 2 (1) 3 0 0 51 Slovakia 76 38 (46) 38 (48) 6 (3,3) 0 (0) 2 0 0 52 Czech Republic 73 55 (41) 18 (79) 12 (6,6) 0 (0) 1 0 0 52 Finland 73 65 (38) 8 (101) 5 (4,1) 1 (0) 2 0 0 54 Zambia 71 13 (67) 58 (42) 8 (4,4) 1 (1) 1 0 0 55 Kyrgyzstan 70 0 (116) 70 (38) 7 (0,7) 0 (0) 1 0 0 56 Panama 68 57 (39) 11 (92) 5 (2,3) 1 (1) 1 0 1 57 DR Congo 67 21 (60) 46 (45) 12 (6,6) 1 (1) 2 0 0 57 Belgium 67 38 (46) 29 (60) 3 (2,1) 2 (2) 2 0 0 57 New Zealand 67 42 (45) 25 (64) 12 (6,6) 0 (0) 0 0 0 60 Egypt 66 9 (73) 57 (43) 11 (4,7) 3 (3) 4 0 0 Country Global Ranking (points) Women's rankings (points) Men's rankings (points) Boxers (W, M) Projected Qualifiers (Qualified) Realistic qualification ceiling Projected medallist Medal ceiling Russia (WC squad) 586 (3) 220 (10) 366 (4) 13 (6,7) 12 13 3 5 Belarus (WC squad) 142 (37) 36 (52) 106 (32) 7 (4,3) 1 3 1 1 ● Ranking system is a scale starting at 77 and then declining at declining intervals down to 6 points for the 40th ranked boxer in each weight class. Beyond the top 40 boxers in a weightclass the points assigned are a function of the total number of boxers in a given weightclass. ● It's a predominantly arbitrary point allocation system. ● Country rankings are a cumalative total of their respective indivual boxers ranking points. Highest possible country score is a 1000. ● Projected qualifiers refers to the number of boxers already qualified per nation plus the boxers that would fill the world qualifying tournament quota places based on my rankings. Naturally, they do not include the nine universality quota places. ● Realistic qualification ceiling is the number of boxers I perceive to be above a given threshold in every weight class below which I think a boxer would need a very lucky draw or favorable judging decisions to be in with a chance of qualifying at the world qualiying tournaments. ● Projected medallists are just the top four in every weightclass although it should be noted that these rankings are an assesment of how I would rank things now and not necessarily a projection for how I see the Olympics playing out. ● Medal ceiling is the total number of boxers who I would consider medal contenders. Medal contenders are roughly the top 8/9 ranked boxers in every weightclass but some weightclasses do differ slightly from that (High of 10, low of 6). Boxers outside this threshold will obviously win some medals at the Olympics given how volatile and unpredictable boxing can be but the vast majority of Olympic medals will be won by boxers inside these thresholds. So I designed a ranking system outlined in part above to look at which countries had the strongest Olympic squads. This is not an assesment of the best boxing countries just how good they're Olympic squad is. Most of the results line up with what I expected but obviously there are a few strange ones.

M80kg (Light-Heavyweight) M92kg (Heavyweight) M92+kg (Super-Heavyweight) 1 Oleksandr Khyzhniak (UKR) Aziz Abbes Mouhiidine (ITA) Bakhodir Jalolov (UZB) 2 Turabek Khabibullaev (UZB) Jack Marley (IRL) Kamshybek Kunkabayev (KAZ) 3 Tuohetaerbieke Tanglatihan (CHN) Keno Machado (BRA) Nelvie Tiafack (GER) 4 Arlen Lopez (CUB) Lazizbek Mullojonov (UZB) Joshua Edwards (USA) 5 Eumir Marcial (PHI) Julio Cesar La Cruz (CUB) Delicious Orie (GBR) 6 Nurbek Oralbay (KAZ) Enmanuel Reyes (ESP) Marko Milun (CRO) < 7 Kelyn Cassidy (IRL) Narek Manasyan (ARM) Mahammad Abdullayev (AZE) 8 Wanderley Pereira (BRA) Julio Castillo (ECU) Nikoloz Begadze (GEO) 9 Taylor Bevan (GBR) Loren Alfonso Dominguez (AZE) Abner Teixeira (BRA) > 10 Christian Pinales (DOM) Jamar Talley (USA) Teremoana Teremoana Jnr (AUS) 11 Robby Gonzales (USA) Berat Acar (TUR) Fernando Arzola (CUB) 12 Georgi Kushitashvili (GEO) Marlon Hurtado (COL) Ayoub Ghadfa (ESP) 13 Hussein Iashaish (JOR) Davlat Boltaev (TJK) Danabieke Bayikewuzi (CHN) 14 Gabrijel Veocic (CRO) Sagyndyk Togambay (KAZ) ? Davit Chaloyan (ARM) 15 Murad Allahverdiyev (AZE) Rogelio Romero (MEX) Djamili Aboudou Moindze (FRA) > 16 Weerapon Jongjoho (THA) Lewis Williams (GBR) Christian Salcedo (COL) 17 Mindaugas Gediminas (NOR) Soheb Bouafia (FRA) Yousry Hafez (EGY) 18 Pylyp Akilov (HUN) Ato Plodzicki-Faoagali (SAM) Yordan Hernandez (BUL) 19 Salvatore Cavallaro (ITA) Sanjeet Kumar (IND) Danis Latypov (BHR) 20 Gazimagomed Jalidov (ESP) Vagkan Nanitzanian (GRE) Mourad Kadi (ALG) 21 Andrei Arodoaie (ROU) Alexander Okafor (GER) Omar Shiha (NOR) 22 Kevin Schumann (GER) Arkadii Kartsan (UKR) Dmytro Lovchynski (UKR) > 23 Vladimir Mironchikov (SRB) Toufan Sharifi (IRN) Vladan Babic (SRB) 24 Omurbek Bekzhigit Uulu (KGZ) Han Xuezhen (CHN)> Diego Lenzi (ITA) 25 Jhojan Caicedo (COL) Marko Calic (CRO) Amato Mataika (TGA) 26 Abraham Buonnarigo (ARG) Adrian Paoletti (AUS) Nigel Paul (TTO) < 27 Hambardzum Hakobyan (ARM) Adam Olaitan Olaore (NGR) < Diarga Balde (SEN) 28 Keven Beausejour (CAN) Artyom Yordanyan (GEO) Narendar Berwal (IND) 29 Ahmad Ghossoun (SYR) Mohamed Houmri (ALG) < Gerlon Congo (ECU) 30 Abdelrahman Oraby (EGY) Mateusz Bereznicki (POL) Zacharie Serge Mvogo Amougou (CMR) 31 Mathieu Bauderlique (FRA) Erkin Adylbek Uulu (KGZ) Alexei Zavatin (MDA) 32 Gradus Kraus (NED) ? Yan Zak (ISR) < Keddy Agnes (SEY) 33 Kim Jin-jea (KOR) Albino Julio Gabriel (MOZ) Byeknur Khali (MGL) 34 Gebhard Ipinge (NAM) Gelian Rojku (ALB) Elijah Mercury-Leafa (SAM) 35 Lakshya Chahar (IND) Daniel Guzman (DOM) Stan Bertens (NED) 36 Nikita Nystedt (FIN) Levente Kiss (HUN) Jonas Jazevicius (LTU) 37 Peter Pita Kabeji (COD) Odai Al-Hindawi (JOR) Miguel Veliz (CHI) 38 Callum Peters (AUS) Karamba Kebe (SEN) Partick Mailata (NZL) 39 Ganzorig Dalai (MGL) Jeong Jae-min (KOR) Jerome Feujio (CAN) 40 Kristyan Nikolov (BUL) David Michalek (SVK) Davilson dos Santos Morais (CPV) < 41 Kaan Aykutsun (TUR) Andrews Salgado (CHI) Oomatbek Elchoro Uulu (KGZ) 42 Shabbos Negmatulloev (TJK) Ayoub Maanni (MOR) < Stylianos Roulias (GRE) 43 Michail Tsamalidis (GRE) Malcolm Matthes (NZL) Iman Ramezanpour (IRN) 44 Anauel Ngamissengue (CGO) Peter Alwanga (KEN) < Javier Cruz (MEX) 45 Arjen Iseni (MKD) Andrei Zaplitnii (MDA) Muhammad Abroridinov (TJK) 46 Julio Alamos (CHI) Maroy Sadiki (COD) Ugur Aydemir (TUR) 47 Stiven Aas (EST) Dorjiin Bariakhaan (MGL) Mohamed Firisse (MOR) 48 Mohamed Assaghir (MOR) Johnathan Tetteh (GHA) > Martin Pinc (CZE) 49 Yusuf Changalawe (TAN) Dzemel Bosnjak (BIH) Jure Simunovic (SLO) 50 Seyidshahin Mousavi (IRN) Hazem Nader Kandil (EGY) Radoslaw Kawczak (POL) Imam Khataev (RUS) (2) Muslim Gadzhimagomedov (RUS) (2) Aleksey Dronov (RUS) (4) Aleksei Alfiorau (BEL) (3) Aybek Oralbay (KAZ) (11) Ahmed Hagag (AUT) ?? (15-20) Andrej Csemez (SVK) ?? (21) Uladzislau Smiahlikau (BLR) (17) Martin Mcdonagh (IRL) (28-32)

M57kg (Featherweight) M63.5kg (Light-Welterweight) M71kg (Light-Middleweight) 1 Abdumalik Khalokov (UZB) Sofiane Oumiha (FRA) Yurii Zakharieiev (UKR) < 2 Javier Ibanez Diaz (BUL) Chinzorig Baatarsukh (MGL) Aslanbek Shymbergenov (KAZ) < 3 Jahmal Harvey (USA) Ruslan Abdullaev (UZB) Marco Verde (MEX) 4 Makhmud Sabyrkhan (KAZ) Lasha Guruli (GEO) Nikolai Terteryan (DEN) 5 Luiz Oliveira (BRA) Bunjong Sinsiri (THA) Asadkhuja Muydinkhujaev (UZB) 6 Carlo Paalam (PHI) Alexy de la Cruz (DOM) Tugrulhan Erdemir (TUR) 7 Yilmar Gonzalez (COL) Radoslav Rosenov (BUL) Omari Jones (USA) 8 Saidel Horta (CUB) Jose Viafara (COL) Nishant Dev (IND) 9 Artur Bazeyan (ARM) Bakhodur Usmonov (TJK) Vakhid Abbasov (SRB) 10 Rujakron Juntrong (THA) Harry Garside (AUS) Makan Vie Traore (FRA) 11 Jude Gallagher (IRL) Emilio Garcia (USA) Sewon Okazawa (JAP) 12 Jose Quiles (ESP) Dean Clancy (IRL) Zeyad Eashash (JOR) 13 Muhammed Abu Jajeh (JOR) Jesus Cova (VEN) Magomed Schachidov (GER) 14 Umid Rustamov (AZE) Wyatt Sanford (CAN) Wanderson de Oliveira (BRA) 15 Daniyal Shahbaksh (IRN) Lazaro Alvarez (CUB) ? Damian Durkacz (POL) 16 Vasile Ustoroi (BEL) Reese Lynch (GBR) Jorge Cuellar (CUB) 17 Sachin Siwach (IND) ? Viliam Tanko (SVK) Jose Rodriguez (ECU) 18 Artyush Gomstyan (GEO) < Miguel Ramirez (MEX) Sarkhan Aliyev (AZE) < 19 Jaroslaw Iwanow (POL) < Yaroslav Khartysz (UKR) < ? Harris Akbar (GBR) ? 20 Munarbek Seitbek Uulu (KGZ) Malik Hasanov (AZE) Rami Kiwan (BUL) 21 Jose de los Santos (DOM) Gianluigi Malanga (ITA) Bayramdurdy Nurmuhammedov (TKM) 22 Asror Vokhidov (TJK) Jugurtha Ait Bekka (ALG) Steve Kulenguluka Mbiya (COD) 23 Yoel Finol (VEN) Louis Richarno Colin (MRI) Angel Llanos (PUR) 24 Frederick Lundgaard Jensen (DEN) < Richard Kovacs (HUN) Tuguldur Byambatsogt (MGL) > 25 Murat Yildirim (GER) Narek Hovhannisyan (ARM) Eskerkhan Madiev (GEO) 26 Nebil Ibrahim (SWE) Lai Chu-en (TPE) Dean Walsh (IRL) 27 Shudai Harada (JAP) Bilge Kagan Kanli (TUR) ? Tiago Muxanga (MOZ) 28 Roland Veres (HUN) Andrew Chilata (ZAM) Junior Petanqui (CAN) 29 Dolapo Omole (NGR) Yuri Falcao dos Reis (BRA) Alban Beqiri (ALB) 30 Batuhan Ciftci (TUR) Abdelhaq Nadir (MOR) Jhonathan Arboleda (COL) 31 Jean Caicedo (ECU) Jospeh Commey (GHA) Christiann Palacio (VEN) 32 Ping Lyu (CHN) Assan Hansen (GER) Bruno Fernandes de Barros (CPV) 33 Lucas Fernandez (URU) Fiston Mbaya (COD) Youba Sissokho (ESP) 34 Miguel Vega (MEX) Khursand Imankuliyev (TKM) Peerapat Yeasungnoen (THA) 35 Michele Baldassi (ITA) ? Adrian Thiam (ESP) Davron Bozorov (MDA) 36 Jack Dryden (GBR) ? Aleksej Sendrik (SRB) Kan Chia-wei (TPE) 37 Fikremariyam Leta (ETH) Alexandru Paraschiv (MDA) Stephen Zimba (ZAM) 38 Lundaa Gantumur (MGL) ? Yertugen Zeinnullinov (KAZ) ? Merven Clair (MRI) 39 Taras Bondarchuk (UKR) Chol Man Choe (PRK) Wang Peicheng (CHN) 40 Alen Rustemovski (MKD) Shiva Thapa (IND) Shannan Davey (AUS) 41 O Tae Bom (PRK) Arsen Chabyan (AUT) Nuradin Rustambek Uulu (KGZ) 42 Armando Sigauque (MOZ) Bartlomiej Roskowicz (POL) Ryang Jang-thae (PRK) 43 Van Duong Nguyen (VIE) Obada Al Kasbeh (JOR) Omar Elawady (EGY) 44 Soulaimane Samghouli (MOR) Ahmad Shtiwi (ISR) Miroslav Kapuler Ischenko (ISR) 45 Abdul Wahib Omar (GHA) ? Josh Tukamuhebwa (UGA) Marjon Pianar (PHI) 46 Matvejs Prokudins (LAT) Ali Qasim Hamdan Al-Sarray (IRQ) Arena Pakela (LES) 47 Charlie Senior (AUS) Askat Kultaev (KGZ) Nidal Foqahaa (PLE) 48 Riad Labidi (FRA) ? Petr Novak (CZE) Salvatore Cavallaro (ITA) 49 Alain Christian Sangue (CMR) Alseny Sylla (GUI) Hamza Ghazouani (TUN) 50 Samuel Wairimu (KEN) Samuel Contreras (ESA) Albert Mengue Ayissi ((CMR) Mohamed Hussamudin (IND) (12) Erislandy Alvarez (CUB) (3-5) Igro Sviridchenkov (RUS) (14) Eduard Savvin (RUS) (15) Gabil Mamedov (RUS) (10) Aliaksandr Radzionau (BLR) (29) Samuel Kistohurry (FRA) (28) Mukhamedsabyr Bazarbayuly (KAZ) (11) (Manny Pacquaio (PHI))

W66kg (Welterweight) W75kg (Middleweight) M51kg (Flyweight) 1 Busenaz Surmeneli (TUR) Tamarra Thibeault (CAN) Hasanboy Dusmatov (UZB) 2 Amy Broadhurst (IRL) ? Qian Li (CHN) Saken Bibbosinov (KAZ) 3 Imane Khelif (ALG) Lovlina Borgohain (IND) < Billal Bennama (FRA) 4 Yang Liu (CHN) Aoife O'Rourke (IRL) Roscoe Hill (USA) < 5 Morelle McCane (USA) Caitlin Parker (AUS) Tomoya Tsuboi (JAP) 6 Janjaem Suwannepheng (THA) Cindy Ngamba (EOR) (REF) Deepak Bhoria (IND) 7 Rosie Eccles (GBR) Atheyna Bylon (PAN) Samet Gumus (TUR) 8 Charlie Cavanagh (CAN) ? Davina Michel (FRA) Martin Molina (ESP) 9 Alcinda Panguane (MOZ) Elzbieta Wojcik (POL) Thitisan Panmot (THA) 10 Barbara dos Santos (BRA) Citlalli Ortiz (MEX) < Yuberjen Martinez (COL) < 11 Chen Nien-chen (TPE) Naomi Graham (USA) Kiaran McDonald (GBR) 12 Camila Camilo (COL) Busra Isildar (TUR) Federico Serra (ITA) 13 Aneta Rygielska (POL) Khadija El-Mardi (MOR) Patrick Chinyemba (ZAM) > 14 Oshin Derieuw (BEL) < Ani Hovsepyan (ARM) << Po Wei Tu (TPE) 15 Stefanie von Berge (GER) Rady Gamane (MOZ) Alejandro Claro Fiz (CUB) 16 Lucia Noelia Perez (ARG) Sunniva Hofstad (NOR) Aaron Jude Bado (PHI) 17 Stephanie Pineiro (PUR) Valentina Khalzova (KAZ) < Daniel Asenov (BUL) 18 Navbakhor Khamidova (UZB) Kerry Davis (GBR) Attila Bernath (HUN) 19 Emilie Sonvico (FRA) Baison Manikon (THA) Dmytro Zamotayev (UKR) 20 Milena Matovic (SRB) Love Holgersson (SWE) > So Chonryong (PRK) 21 Luca Hamori (HUN) Anastasia Chernokolenko (UKR) Sakhil Alakhverdovi (GEO) 22 Marissa Williamson (AUS) Gabriele Stonkute (LTU) > Jiamao Zhang (CHN) 23 Maria Moronta (DOM) > Melissa Gemini (ITA) Yunior Alcantara Reyes (DOM) 24 Assunta Canfora (ITA) Maryelis Yriza (VEN) Salah Ibrahim (GER) 25 Madeleine Angelsen (NOR) Patricia Mbata (NGR) Ramon Nicanor Quiroga (ARG) 26 Luna Beeloo (NED) Deanne Read (NZL) Rudolf Garboyan (ARM) 27 Arundhati Choudhary (IND) Jessica Triebelova (SVK) Azat Makhmetov (BHR) 28 Ivanusa Gomes Moreira (CPV) > Vivianne Pereira (BRA) Masud Yusifzada (AZE) 29 Oumayma Bel Ahbib (MOR) Irina Schonberger (GER) Sean Mari (IRL) 30 Maria Bova (UKR) ? Eseta Flint (TGA) Ala Eddine Zidi (TUN) 31 Natalya Bogdanova (KAZ) ? Nikolina Gajic (SRB) Luis Delgado (ECU) 32 Beatrise Rozentale (LAT) Monika Langerova (CZE) Michael de Trindade (BRA) 33 Shoira Zulkaynarova (TJK) Elizabeth Andiego (KEN) Unabold Orkhontungalag (MGL) ? 34 Cara Wharerau (NZL) Aziza Zokirova (UZB) Nurzhigit Diushebaev (KGZ) 35 Hwang Hyo-sun (PRK) Timea Nagy (HUN) Jo Se-Hyeong (KOR) 36 Yuliannys Alvarez (VEN) Enkhbaatar Erdenetuya (MGL) Said Mortaji (MOR) 37 Tsetsegdari Myargmarsuren (MGL) Lorena Balbuena (ARG) Omer Ametovic (SRB) > 38 Shahla Allahverdiyeva (AZE) Seong Su-yeon (KOR) Yusuf Chothia (AUS) 39 Austeja Auciute (LTU) Vasiliki Stavridou (GRE) Mohamed Moziane (ALG) 40 Seon Su-jin (KOR) Luisa Vasquez (COL) Keymberth Gonzalez (ECU) 41 Brigitte Mbabi (COD) Aynur Rzayeva (AZE) Theophilus Allotey (GHA) 42 Paraskevi Mavrommati (GRE) Marie-Joelle Mwika (COD) Sinovuyo Mtintelwa (RSA) 43 Mireille Biindzi (CAM) > Molka Ben Mabrouk (TUN) Jakub Slominski (POL) 44 Sona Harutyunyan (ARM) Ingrith Maldonado (ECU) David Karanja Macharia (KEN) 45 Friza Asikoh (KEN) Diem Quynh Luu (VIE) Oscar Castaneda (MEX) 46 Mai Kito (JAP) Yakelin Estornell (CUB) Mohamed Otukile (BOT) 47 Francinah Kasemang (BOT) Milena Jimenez (DOM) David Alaverdian (ISR) 48 Marketa Tojnarova (CZE) Kimberly Gittens (BAR) Abdallah Mohamed Abdallah (TAN) 49 Olawunmi Shodipe (NGR) Saraswati Rana (NEP) Trofimus Johannes (NAM) 50 Sedja Sanogo (CIV) Ornella Sathoud (GHA) Yassine Nordine Issufo (MOZ) > Azalia Amineva (RUS) (10) Anastasia Shamonova (RUS) (14) Vasiliy Egorov (RUS) (7) Aryna Danilchyk (BLR) (42) Alina Veber (BLR) (27) Sara Kali (CAN) (29)

Right so here goes, W54kg was by far the trickiest weight to rank by a mile, lots of good but no great boxers. Index Example : Qualified boxer. Example : Projected qualifier at the 2 world qualifying tournements. First underline : Number of qualifiers in a given weightclass. Second underline :Threshold for realistic qualifiers at the world qualifying tournaments. >/< Boxer could/ should be ranked higher (>) or lower (<) than they are. ? Boxer may be replaced for the world qualifying tournaments/ may not be their country's best boxer. ?? Boxer didn't compete at continental qualifiers for reasons I am unaware of. (F)/ (L) - This is just a note that Tugsjargal Nomin-Erdene and Monkhor Namuun seemingly have swapped weightclasses as they both competed in differetn weight classes from where they commpeted at Asian Games at the Koln boxing cup. These rankings include every boxer that competed at any of the continental Olympic qualifying tournaments. I've listed the Russian and Belarussian world championships squads here under the rankings and an approximate ranking for them. The majority of these boxers as I understand are affiliated with their respective militaries and will not be eligible to qualify for the Olympics. I've also added an approximate ranking for boxers who missed their continental qualifiers or are clearly more talented than the boxer that competed for their country at the continental qualifying tournaments and who would be in with a chance of qualifying for the Olympics. This could have been a more extensive list and I would expect lots of countries to tinker with their squads for the world qualifyiers but for simplicity I opted to restrict them to only clear cut cases W50kg (Flyweight) W54kg (Bantamweight) W57kg (Featherweight) W60kg (Lightweight) 1 Buse Naz Cakiroglu (TUR) Pang Chol-mi (PRK) Lin Yu-ting (TPE) Kellie Harrington (IRL) 2 Nikhat Zareen (IND) Stanimira Petrova (BUL) Irma Testa (ITA) Beatriz Ferreira (BRA) 3 Wu Yu (CHN) Huang Hsiao-wen (TPE) Karina Ibragimova (KAZ) Yang Wenlu (CHN) 4 Chuthamat Raksat (THA) Jutamas Jitpong (THA) Michaela Walsh (IRL) Angie Paola Valdes (COL) 5 Thi Tham Nguyen (VIE) < Yuan Chang (CHN) Svetlana Staneva (BUL) Won Ung-yong (PRK) 6 Ingrit Valencia Victoria (COL)< Charley Sian Taylor Davison (GBR) Nesthy Petecio (PHI) Estelle Mossely (FRA) 7 Giordana Sorrentino (ITA) Nigina Uktamova (UZB) Amina Zidani (FRA) Natalia Shadrina (SRB) 8 Wassila Lkhadiri (FRA) Preeti (IND) Jucielen Romeu (BRA) Shona Whitwell (GBR) 9 Tsukimi Namiki (JAP) Anastasia Kovalchuk (UKR) Parveen Hooda (IND) > Oh Yeonji (KOR) 10 Daina Moorehouse (IRL) > Lacramioara Perijoc (ROU) Jennifer Fernandez (ESP) Rimma Volossenko (KAZ) 11 Caroline de Almeida (BRA) > Hatice Akbas (TUR) Valeria Arboleda (COL) Agnes Alexiusson (SWE) 12 Nazym Kyzaibay (KAZ) Jennifer Lehane (IRL) Omailyn Alcala (VEN) Donjeta Sadiku (KOS) 13 Tetyana Kob (UKR) Zhaina Shekerbekova (KAZ) > Elise Glynn (GBR) Wu Shih-yi (TPE) 14 Roumaysa Boualam (ALG) Yeni Arias (COL) > Monkhor Namuun (MGL) < (L?) Nomin-Erdene Tugsjargal (MGL) (F?) 15 Pihla Kaivo-oja (FIN) < Sirine Charaabi (ITA) Julia Szeremeta (POL) Jajaira Gonzalez (USA) 16 Laura Fuertes (ESP) Sandra Drabik (POL) > Xu Zichun (CHN) Lenka Bernardova (CZE) 17 Yesugen Oyuntsetseg (MGL) > Rinka Kinoshita (JAP) Asleyann Lozada (PUR) Cynthia Ogunsemilore (NGR) 18 Natalia Rok (POL) Johana Gomez (VEN) Khouloud Hlimi (TUN) > Krisandy Rios (VEN) 19 Sabina Bobokulova (UZB) Enkhjargal Mungunsetseg (MGL) Vilma Viitanen (FIN) < Alessia Mesiano (ITA) ? 20 Zlatislava Chukanova (BUL) Sara Cirkovic (SRB) Claudia Nechita (ROU) Elida Kocharyan (ARM) 21 Aldana Florencia Lopez (ARG) Scarlett Delgado (CAN) Melissa Mortensen (DEN) Thananya Somnuek (THA) 22 Monique Suraci (AUS) Bojana Gojkovic (MNE) Marianna Basanets (UKR) Jaismine (IND) 23 Aira Villegas (PHI) Yoseline Perez (USA) ? Mijgona Samadova (TJK) Miroslava Jedinakova (SVK) 24 Nina Radovanovic (SRB) Delphine Mancini (FRA) Asya Ari (GER) Sara Beram (CRO) 25 Maxi Klotzer (GER) Sofia Robles (ARG) Satsuki Yoshizawa (JAP) > Hadjila Khelif (ALG) 26 Demie-Jade Resztan (GBR) > ? Nikolina Cacic (CRO) Marie Al-Ahmadieh (CAN) Ayaka Taguchi (JAP) 27 Yasmine Moutaqui (MOR) Mary Romero (ESP) Alyssa Mendoza (USA) ? Camila Pineiro (URU) 28 Anush Grigoryan (ARM) Ekaterina Sycheva (ARM) Aysen Taskin (TUR) Chelsey Heijnen (NED) 29 Ingrid Gomez (MEX) Widad Bertal (MOR) Paek Jin-hyang (PRK) Gizem Ozer (TUR) 30 Bak Cho-rong (KOR) Tatiana de Jesus (BRA) Sitora Turdibekova (UZB) Raykhona Kodirova (UZB) 31 Jennifer Lozano (USA) Estefani Almanzar (DOM) Tina Rahimi (AUS) Anna Jenni (SWI) 32 Susan Aguas (ECU) Sara Haghighat-Joo (SLE) Olga Papadatou (GRE) (Rizwa Pasuit (PHI)) 33 Tayonis Cedeno (VEN) Antonia Giannakopoulou (GRE) Porntip Buapa (THA) Hanna Okhrei (UKR) 34 Kang Su-hyang (PRK) < Zehra Milli (SWE) Mahsati Hamzayeva (AZE) Tyla McDonald (AUS) 35 Sofie Vinther Rosshaug (DEN) Im Aeji (KOR) Lucie Sedlackova (CZE) Sandra Kruk (POL) 36 Thandolwethu Mathiba (RSA) < Zeynab Rahimova (AZE) Legnis Cala (CUB) Maria Palacios (ECU) 37 Mckenzie Wright (CAN) Irish Magno (PHI) Ana Milisic (SWI) Felistars Nkandu (ZAM) 38 Tasmyn Benny (NZL) Ana khunjua (GEO) Andjela Brankovic (SRB) Esmeralda Falcon (MEX) 39 Rita Soares (POR) Emma Jokiaho (FIN) Marcelat Sakobi (COD) Loredana Marin (ROU) 40 Nicole Durikova (SVK) Thi Ngoc Tran Nguyen (VIE) Daisy Bamberger (PER) Erin Walsh (NZL) 41 Wafa Hafsi (TUN) Mayssen Lambot (BEL) Keamogetse Kenosi (BOT) Ana Starovoitova (LTU) 42 Aylin Jamez (GUA) Hanna Lakotar (HUN) Milagros Herrera (ARG) Nisrine Amine (MOR) 43 Valeria Cardenas (CRC) Claudia Totova (CZE) Joy Ojo Nene (NGR) > Victoria Saputo (ARG) 44 Danisha Mathialagan (SGP) Denisse Bravo (CHI) Jennifer Peters (NZL) Teresa Makinen (FIN) 45 Benedicte Diyoka (COD) Tiana Echegaray (AUS) Chandrakala Thapa (NEP) Islem Ferchichi (TUN) 46 Yuliett Hinestroza (PAN) Iulia Coroli (MDA) Tatevik Khachatryan (ARM) Naomie Yumba (COD) 47 Adeola Oyesiji (NGR) Yomna Ayyad (EGY) Leilany Reyes (GUA) Aslahan Mehmedova (BUL) > 48 Christine Ongare (KEN) > Gloria Fernandez (MEX) Laela El Ksiri (MOR) Lena Buchner (GER) 49 Petra Mezei (HUN) Fatma Abdelkader (ALG) Miguelina Hernandez (DOM) Mariam Sidibe (CIV) > 50 Gracemarie Quiles Marti (PUR) Helen Sanchez (ECU) Jennifer Carillo (MEX) < ? Huswatun Hasanah (INA) Ekatarina Paltseva Kuts (RUS) (15) Karina Tazabekova (RUS) (17) Liudmila Vorontsova (RUS) (8) Nadezhda Golubeva (RUS) (12) Yana Byrum (BLR) (30) Ala Ivashkevich (BLR) (35)

So I decided to try and figure out who would be the likely qualifiers at the world qualifying tournaments and well many many hours, lots of procrastinating and a contender for the ugliest excel file ever created later I ended up ranking every boxer who competed at the continental qualifying tournaments and doing well some other stuff too. Obviously these are just my rankings and well I will fully admit aren't especially accurate even if I did spend a significant amount of time thinking about every position but they should at least be the most accurate boxing rankings out there. Just quickly in terms of boxing rankings that already exist the IBA have a ranking which is based on points system based on how far you get into their competitions. Even in a normal cycle where everyone was competing in the IBA's competitions they would still be woefully inaccurate because of the way they are calculated. They are also self perpetuating given that these rankings determine seedings which then effect how far into competitions boxers get. Anyway they are completely useless. Then boxrec has a ranking system which is accurate enough and as I understand based on the quality of your opponents you beat/ lose to. It does fall into weird pitfalls where sometimes it overrates/ underrates one group of boxers and then when they keep beating/ losing to eachother and it gets stuck in a cycle and ends up with some weird rankings as a result. Also if you keep losing to good boxers without fighting bad ones or only beat bad boxers without ever fighting good ones it can end up with weird rankings. Finally while boxrec results database is very good it is still missing a lot of competitions particularly outside of Europe. And then finally Taylor O'Higgins (worth a follow on twitter) used to do an amateur boxing rankings on the Fight site and he is a boxing coach so obviously knows a lot more about the actual boxing side of things than I would. He has mentioned doing the rankings again a couple of times on twitter but as far as I know hasn't posted them. So ye hopefully these fill a bit of a hole and help with some of the qualifying/ medal projections on this site where some of the boxing related projections have been a bit hit and miss. I'll only post the top 50 boxers in each weightclass and the top 60 or so in my country rankings but I have linked an Excel file with the complete rankings of every weight class and ranked every country plus the same stuff but broken down by continental if anyone wants to look at them. Original rankings (Dec 2023) https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1RN05tE5ipfkwHf_7c4vNLpV89zaHfMWw/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=113545580127855067750&rtpof=true&sd=true Updated Olympic rankings (July 2023) https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IXUV9JedDIIPekE16V3nBAbvkYHvW0Fl/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=113545580127855067750&rtpof=true&sd=true

Is there not a scale here though, I don't think anyone is advocating for an Olympics where only the best athletes compete regardless of the country/ continenent they represent. But at the same time the Olympics should primarily have the best athletes. Again to reiterate there has been no issue at recent Olympics with Oceania being represented in boxing. If that automatic continental quota had been reallocated to Asia/ (in the womens weights where 4 qualified in Asia to one of the world qualifying tournaments ) you still would have your global spread and a number of boxers representing Oceania but the overall standard of the tournament would also be higher. I'm not going to convince you on the three chances thing am I? I just don't like how much a role random chance plays in deciding these quotas. Obviously, there will always be an element of random chance in any qualification system and sport without any chance involved is very boring but like for me at least that number is way too high in boxing.

I wish that were true with this boxing qualification system but like it isnt. For example if you are the tenth best boxer in a given weighclass you could very easily lose to lets say the 2nd, 5th and 7th best boxers and fall short of qualifying despite being comfortably good enough to qualify. It is important to note that all these draws are unseeded and I'm assuming the world qualifying ones will be too. With unseeded draws you don't control when you box the best boxer in the draw or how many of the top 3 or 4 boxers are in your path to a qualifying position. I've tried to explain (admittedly quite badly) the unseeded draw thing before but like again to keep it simple if the 2 finalists qualify. Then the boxer who loses the final and the boxer who lost to the eventual winner in the semis had basically the same result (I know this isn't quite true but for simplicity lets say it is). So we don't know who was better the losing finalist or the losing semi finalist because they lost to the same boxer, so in theory we can approximate that half of the time the boxing who lost to the winner in the semi final would have actually beaten the boxer who lost in the final and therefore with 2 qualifiers per weight roughly 25% of the qualifiers are 'incorrect' as in the worse boxer qualified just comparing the losing finallist to the losing semifinallist. This can be extrapolated backwards as well like the boxer who lost to the eventual champion in the quarter final or last 16 might actually be the second best boxer in the draw but because the draw was unseeded they have no control over whether they meet the best boxer so we don't know. The majority of the weightclasses on the mens side in Asia ended up like this where the likes of Chu En Lai and Chia Wei Kan qualified despite being nowhere near the level of Ruslan Abdullaev/ Bakhodur Usmonov and Asadhkuja Muydhinkujaev/Aslanbek Shymbergenov/ Nishant Dev. This setup is also true for draws where the best four boxers qualify but the 'incorrect' percentage is much trickier to calculate. This error is why taekwondo has its convaluted way of awarding bronze medals and taekwondo starts from a point where it has a fairly accurate seeding and seeds every athlete in the draw. Seeding only somewhat corrects this error but obviously is limited by the accuracy of the seeding. To explain it slightly differently the actual number for how often the second best boxer in a 2 to qualify draw qualifies is only slightly above 50% just based off the draw. Not even taking into account judging errors (To explain exactly what I mean by second best boxer is somewhat difficult but it is a theoretical second best boxer rather than "I think this guy was the second best boxer", just in theory there is one we don't need to actually know who it is) (This probably just confuses things further but sure). But anyway in an unseeded draw slightly under half of the time the best boxer and the second best boxer will get drawn on the same side of the draw. (I could explain why it is slightly under half and not half but it doesn't matter that much).To give you an example Jack Marley is one of the best heavyweights in the world and thoroughly deserves his spot at the Olympics but there was a slightly under 50% that he would have been drawn on the same side of the bracket as Aziz Abbes Mouhidiine and he wouldn't have qualified as a result. Same end result, same level of performance but whether or not he qualifed just came down to the draw. Again this means that in a two to qualify roughly 50% of the time one of the boxers is 'incorrect' and therefore 25% of the qualifiers are 'incorrect'. Obviously this is a somewhat idealised and theoretical setup and it is an incomplete argument but I hope can convince you that the error produced by these draws is significant and significant to the point that just having 3 qualifying oppurtunities isn't going to correct for it. If not just trust me on this, I have thought a lot about these things. (I've managed to confuse myself a bit here because this is roughly the same process but yet the first way I've explained would produce an error of 25% plus the error that the losing quarter finallists... was actually the one who 'should' have qualified, so an error of greater than 25% and yet the second more simplistic way gives you an error of slightly under 25%.) (I've decided the first way probably needs some refining and the maths is more complex than I have laid it out but let me think about it) (The conclusion is right though, roughly 25% of the qualifiers in a 2 to qualify unseeded draw system are 'incorrect', and that number would be higher for a 4 to qualify system.)

So quickly from a prediction perspective I got 12/13 which is a little dissapointing but well sure. It leaves me on 84/139 (60.4%) in total for all the continental events which is half decent I suppose. In terms of the competition here I suppose the positive is that there were no major judging controversies but there were so few close fights that it would have been an embarrasment if there were any. Look give Australia credit, Like by Australian standards this is a good squad and the thing is that Adrian Paoletti at 92kg the only Australian not to qualify actually isn't that far away in terms of qualifying at one of the world tournaments although I wouldn't bet on it. (It's going to be a very lonely trip for him though) From a New Zealand perspective this was an unmitigated disaster. The IOC gave you a few free quotas in a sport you aren't particularly good at and you went nah thanks we're good. Aditionally to manage to lose 3 fights to non-Australian opposition (At least one of which could have been competing for you) is an indictment of their selection process. Finally on the Oceanian quota thing It's not a geographical spread thing though Australian had 5 quotas last time Oceania had 9 boxers there was no issue with Oceania being represented at the Olympics when they competed along with Asian qualifying. Like why exactly is there a need to separate Asia and Oceania but lump North and South America together. I'm not arguing for two separate Americas qualifiers just why is that different. Secondly yes it is an issue that Australia get 12 quotas. Australia are a roughly top 15/20 country in the world in boxing and yet they are going to have the most qualifiers for the Olympics. Also its not the 5th best in Asia and Europe, It was only top 2 in the majority of events, the draws were unseeded and add in some bad judging and it is far from a picture of the 5th best boxer in Europe/Asia missing out at this point, in a lot of cases it was much closer to 2,3,4 and 5 all missing out rather than just the 5th best. A lot of boxers are going to miss out on qualifying despite being better than their Oceanian (Australian) equivalent and Oceania would have ended up with 6/7 or so quotas plus a universality/tri-partite quota or two anyway.

M51kg Yusuf Chothia . Zain Adams, New Zealand's entry appears to have withdrawn althoug I wouldn't have expected him to qualify anyway. Chothia has to go through Eriu Temakau who is based in Australia and Charles Keama before a final probably against Nehal Chand . Clinton Tetekana is the other boxer in the draw. I would be somewhat surprised if any of Chothia's fights go the distance. M57kg Charlie Senior . Charlie Senior should comfortably win here. His path to the final involves going through David Rounds , almost certainly Alex Mukuka and likely Allan Aoike . Although Aoike does need to beat Boe Warawara who did compete at the Rio Olympics. M63.5kg Harry Garside . The only Olympic medallist in the draw although I would not expect him to get anywhere near repeating the feat. He should qualify though albeit the draw could have been kinder with Olympian John Ume in the first round likely followed by Australian based Pemberton Lele with Kalani Marra waiting in the final assuming he beats Lautufa Lutu and Elia Rokobuli . M71kg Wendell Stanley . Finally I get to pick a non Australian. Shannan Davey has to go through Tauwhiri Toheriri and likely Taufu Lavemaau before a final against Wendell Stanley who has a very straightforward path to the final. Stanley beat Davey on a split decision the previous time they met. M80kg Callum Peters Callum Peters isn't very good but its a pity that Emile Richardson is worse. The top of this draw is actually pretty interesting with a quarter final of Richardson against Roman Viney who met at the New Zealand national champs earlier this year where Richardson won a split decision. Jolando Taala who is American based awaits in the semis and it is very possible that we don't see a New Zealand Australian final here despite them being on opposite sides of the draw. Peters will likely face Aminiasi Saratiba in his semi. M92kg Ato Plodziki-Faoagali This is the most interesting weightclass here and might the only weight where I'm not entirely sure I made the right pick although one or two of the other ones will definitely prove incorrect for one reason or another. Ato Plodziki-Faoagali goes up against Peneteekosi Tatafu and Michael Schuster in his path to the final. The other semi will almost certainly see Adrain Paoletti face Malcolm Matthes . Paoletti has beaten Matthes before. The loser of Plodzicki-Faoagali vs Paoletti will likely be the only boxer I didn't pick here who I might pick to qualify at one of the world qualifying tournaments although, emphasis on might. M92+kg Teremoana Jnr There was a fascinating story here as New Zealand champion Matt Mataika elected to represent Tonga instead due to the self funding requirements of New Zealand boxing. So the real final here is actually the prospective semi between Mataika and Teremoana Jnr. Unfortunately for Tongan hopes Teremoana jnr is one of Australian's better boxers, maybe even their best male boxer here. The other side of the draw probably sees Patrick Mailata who was born in Samoa face Elijah Mercury Leafa who is based in New Zealand. So my final tally is Australia-11, New Zealand-1, Samoa-1 and it is probably more likely Australia gets to 12 than falls to 10. This Australia squad is a half decent Australian squad but the fact that they will cruise to double digits with the likes of Kazakhstan on 2 qualifiers and GB on 3 after continental qualifying is ridiculous. I should also note that the other non-Olympic weightclasses are being contested here with no Australia or New Zealand so there should be plenty of shinier medals to go around to the smaller nations plus all the bronze going around because the most entries in any of the weight classes is 8 and most have significantly fewer.

Not entirely sure if there is much point predicting these but for completeness lets do it. Very nearly missed this starting as well. Results site said this wasn't starting until Tuesday. There is one qouta up for grabs in all weightclasses. I don't understand why Oceania needed an automatic quota at all given that enough of them qualified through Asia. I believe 9 Oceanians qualified last time although in a few cases in the same weightclass so this automatic spot but only one per weightclass seems strange and unnecessary W50kg Monique Suraci Should be pretty clear cut. Will face Tasmyn Benny in the final after Benny beats a home boxer. W54kg Tiana Echegaray Tiana Echegaray has beaten Christine Gillespie before so should win the qouta spot. They face off in the semis before almost certainly meeting Hainite Tuitupou in the final who is good enough to mention here given thats its not like either of the other two are any good. None of these would be anywhere near a quota globally. W57kg Tina Rahimi This one isn't a foregone conclusion but I would still back Australia here. Jennifer Peters is her opponent and doesn't seem to have basically any international experience. Another Semi final matchup for the quota spot with Feofaaki Epenisa the likely final opponent. W60kg Tyla Mcdonald I should pick Erin Walsh here as she is the best New Zealander so far as in she has literally beaten the previous couple but well her international results are pretty hopeless. McDonald's aren't much better but well they are slightly. McDonald has to go through the only women's quarter final against a home boxer before a semi final against Baby Nansen who is a professional boxer and kickboxer in New Zealand albeit not a very good one. Walsh's semi is against Elizabeth Teapu . (Who mixed in with her very Tongan name has a random Quinn thrown in there so clearly has some sort of Irish connection. (Presumably as tangible a connection as Jaismine Camacho-Quinn who was very confused when an Irish interviewer asked her about it in Tokyo.) Erin Walsh has an actual Irish connection as she was born here.) W66kg Marissa Williamson Entry list has a bunch of entries but its a straight final on the draw sheet unfortunately. Marissa Williamson had a very impressive win beating out World silver medallist at 70kg Kaye Scott at Australian trials and should be way too good for Cara Wharerau . W75kg Caitlin Parker Probably the only true Olympic medal contender in Oceania prabably in either gender, Caitlin Parker should be much too good for her competition here. She faces Eseta Flint who is Australian but representing having obviously failed to get the Australian selection in her semi. The other semi sees Deanne Read face timolai lafaialii .

So boxing national champs. Quick run through of the Olympic weights. W50kg- Daina Moorehouse retains her title although there was a surprise in the semis with Shannon Sweeney beating Caitlin Fryers on a very close split decision- Moorehouse is almost certain to get the Irish selection for the world qualifying tournaments although while there still a couple of good boxers left globally I would expect Moorehouse to qualify at the first one. W54kg- Jennifer Lehane overturns the result from the previous national champs and justifies her European games selection by beating Niamh Fay. Niamh Fay is talented but I reckon probably needs go up a weightclass in the future and still needs some serious cleaning up of aspects of her technique. Lehane has a good chance of qualifying but is by far the most vulnerable of the womens weights. If there a weight to hope for a good draw it is this one. W57kg- Michaela Walsh is obviously already qualified and won a record 11th elite title here. W60kg- Kellie Harrington is also obviously already qualified and also won a record 11th title. W66kg- Right so Amy Broadhurst and Lisa O Rourke are both absent through injuries. Grainne Walsh retains her title with wins over Kaci Rock and Christina Desmond but I'll be honest I thought Desmond beat her although it was a very close fight. W75kg- Aoife O'Rourke walkover I think, not much to say here. M51kg- Sean Mari is still the clear cut number one domestically. Unfortunately internationally is unlikely to be good enough to make the Olympics. M57kg- The deepest mens weight by a country mile. Jude Gallagher having missed the previous national champs justified is status as the Irish number one by winning here but his semi final against Dylan Eagleson was very close (I kind of thought Eagleson won to be honest). Eagleson had an impressive win against reigning champ Paul Loonam in the prelims and for me at least is still in contention. Adam Hession got a good win against reigning 60kg champion Davey Joyce but despite beating him in the past looked outclassed against Jude Gallagher. Jude Gallagher is obviously the massive favourite at this point but it wouldn't shock me at all if Dylan Eagleson gets the nod for the qualifiers. Either should qualify but it is close and there is a lot of talent left globally. M63.5kg- Surprise win for Aaron O donoghue over international JP Hale in Dean Clancy's absence. M71kg- Dissapointingly no Aidan Walsh so difficult to get a clear cut image from these champs. Dean Walsh did win but somewhat unconvincingly with two close fights against Jon McConnell (talented but not Olympic level good) and 67kg champion Eugene Mckeever. For me this should still be Aidan Walsh but he has only boxed three times all year. Dean Walsh is a decent boxer but he just likely isn't quite good enough to make it to the Olympics. M80kg- What a fight! If you missed them you should defintely watch this one. (TG4 youtube). This fight was worhty of an Olympic medal fight. Kelyn Cassidy gets the win over Gabriel Dossen and likely shores up is status as Irish number one although it was close enough that the door is still ajar for Dossen. Either of them should qualify but if there is a weight where we might switch boxers between the two qualifying tournaments if we fall short at the first one it is probably this one. M92kg- Jack Marley with a couple of comfortable wins to retain his title. M92+kg- We probably have our super heavyweight selection. Relative newcomer to boxing Martin Mcdonagh backs up his intermediate title with a win here including a very impressive final win against former Georgian number one Ilia Mtsariashvili. Probably unlikely to qualify but he is talented enough to get a little bit excited about.

I don't think the men's rugby sevens team is a particularly unlikely medal. We had a strange and somewhat transitional season last year but we are World cup bronze medallists and the core of that squad still remains, we have the best player in the world in Terry Kennedy and we now have better depth. For me though Qualification: Adam Steele/ Eamon Montgomery- Artistic Gymnastics, Medal: Rowing men's quad (Arguably could put them in the unlikely qualification category but still)

I have been watching the NFL since 2016. For context those are my entire years as a teenager. Today is the first time that I have witnessed the broncos beating the chiefs. This win has been a long time coming.

[hide] Knockout Stage October 14th - October 28th, 2023 Third-Place Match Date & Time (GMT +2) Nation 1 T1 T2 Nation 2 October 27th, h. 21:00 Argentina 14 England Final Date & Time (GMT +2) Nation 1 T1 T2 Nation 2 October 28th, h. 21:00 New Zealand 3 South Africa [/hide]

Olympic Qualifiers (My predictions in brackets) - 9 (8) - 5 (4) - 3 (5) - 3 (4) - 2 (2) - 2 (1) - 2 (1) - 1 (1) - 1 (1) - 1 (1) -1 (1) -0 (1) I'll probably do a more detailed breakdown after the finals tomorrow but Brazil go top of the global qualifiers standings after continental stage which just whatever ridiculous number Australia get to come. ( Brazil-9, China/ France-7, Turkey-6, Ireland/ USA/ Algeria-5). USA just about salvaged a solid total with that Josh Edwards win against Fernando Arzola which also condemned Cuba to what must be their worst ever panamerican games boxing performance. Also if anyone cares I broke 60% on my qualifying predictions 20/30 (66%) and a miraculous 14/16 on the womens side of things and I kinda think I was unlucky to not get a couple more. It's bizarre how much easier predicting these becomes when there are less entries.

Wow shock of the tournament. 2021 world silver medallist Roscoe Hill having done the hard work and beaten Alejandro Claro and Yuberjen Martinez loses to Yunior Alcantara with an Olympic spot on the line. The flyweight world qualifying tournaments are going to be ridiculously stacked.

Eastern Conference Western Conference Team Projected Wins Comments Team Projected Wins Comments 1 Boston Celtics 59-61 Combination of talent and motivation should lead to the best regular season record this year 1 Phoenix Suns 55-57 Injury risk is significant but I think team will want to win a lot of regular season games. Still don't think they beat Denver come playoff time. 2 Milwaukee Bucks 51-53 This team is old, injury prone and while Mike Budenholzer was a playofff disaster he was an excellent regular season head coach. I like them in the playoffs but this team will win less than you would think in the regular season. 2 Denver Nuggets 55-57 Probably won't try hard enough for the one seed. Depth is a bit of a question mark too. 3 Cleveland Cavaliers 50-52 Terrible playoff team but should replicate regular season success 3 Minnesota timberwolves 49-51 I hate this pick but I was going to hate whoever I put third here. Let's bet on Anthony Edwards 4 Philadelphia 76ers 47-49 Have found ways to win despite internal dysfunction before. Might fall apart this time though. 4 Oklahoma City Thunder 48-50 Might be slightly too high but too many people underestimate the rising young team. 5 Miami Heat 45-47 Who knows what to do with them. 5 Golden State Warriors 44-46 I want to put them lower. 6 Atlanta Hawks 43-45 I hate putting them this high but Quin Snyder for a full year, should be a playoff team 6 Dallas Mavericks 44-46 I don't rate this team but let's back Luka. 7 New York Knicks 42-44 Might be a bit low but I don't want to overhype them based off beating a hapless Cleveland team in the playoffs. 7 Los Angeles Lakers 43-45 Oh look its an overrated Lakers team, What's new? This one should make the playoffs though 8 Orlando Magic 42-44 Should be fun to watch. 8 Los Angeles Clippers 43-45 No idea what to do with them. Depth isn't as good as it used to be. 9 Indiana Pacers 40-42 Also will be fun to watch. I'm hoping this is too low for them. 9 Memphis Grizzlies 43-45 Not the Grizzlies team of the last couple of years. I Hate the moves they made. How long will it take for people to realise that Marcus Smart and Dillon Brooks are basically the same player except Brooks is now a better defender. 10 Toronto Raptors 40-42 I kind of want to put them higher based off their talent but they might trade half their team by February. 10 Sacramento Kings 41-43 I'm sorry, I really am. They are due for a litlle bit of regression though. 11 Chicago Bulls 34-36 Should have tanked last year. Still should tank this year. Generally teams trying to be mediocre end up being worse than average. 11 New Orleans Pelicans 39-41 Don't know what to do with these either. 12 Brooklyn Nets 27-29 Not a very good team 12 Portland Trail Blazers 30-32 I think this is last year's jazz except with more oung talent. They may tank the shit out of this but for now I kind of think they are too good to tank. This is not the consensus on them though. 13 Charlotte Hornets 26-28 Have inherited the title of worst vibes team from Houstan. Talent is better than this record but this team is dysfunctional. 13 Utah Jazz 30-32 Sneaky difficult team to peg. 14 Detroit Pistons 23-25 Will be better but starting from a very low bar. I am not high on Cade Cunningham's potential 14 Houston Rockets 25-27 I like a lot of this team. They should be better than this but I don't trust them 15 Washington Wizards 18-20 Easy pick for worst team in the league. Jordan Poole is just about the best possible asset for a team that is trying to lose 15 San Antonio Spurs 24-26 They should be fun to watch but probably won't win that many games. I don't think they will actually finish 15th. Here's my two cents. This may be the league, sporting event I follow the closest and yet I have never quite managed to figure out preseason predictions. This year is especially difficult because the middle tier in the league is huge. There were a lot of very similar teams around the middle last year and they are alll basically still there plus a couple of the high win total teams last year have regressed and all the teams from the bottom last year are trying to be better this year. For what its worth I think Denver will repeat and I'm not just saying that because I am a Nuggets fan.

Wow, Lazaro Alvarez just got annihilated by Wyatt Sanford . This really isn't a very strong Cuban squad and certainly nowhere near the standard they traditionally put out.

No. Mostly useless. The reason Ivanusa Gomes Moreira is so high on them is mostly because she was one of only 2 entries at the African Championships in 2022. She lost that fight. Boxrec's rankings are also flawed but they are more accurate than the IBAs so if thats what you were basing your picks off then I would probably use boxrecs or maybe an aggregate of the two.

It's boxing. It doesn't matter how much you know about it your predictions will be wrong either way. For what its worth I think most of your picks so far have been conceivable.

Uhm, No. Incredibly slim chance of even qualifying.

[hide] Knockout Stage October 14th - October 28th, 2023 4 Nations, The Winners of each Semifinal will qualify for Final. The Losing Nations of each Semifinal will play the Third-Place Match. Semifinals Date & Time (GMT +2) Nation 1 T1 T2 Nation 2 October 20th, h. 21:00 Argentina 28 New Zealand October 21st, h. 21:00 England 6 South Africa [/hide]

Gold Silver Bronze Total Olympic Qs Brazil 3 5 2 9 8 Cuba 3 1 0 4 4 Colombia 2 2 3 7 5 USA 2 1 5 8 4 Canada 1 1 3 5 2 Puerto Rico 1 0 2 4 1 Mexico 1 0 1 2 1 Dominican Republic 0 1 1 2 1 Argentina 0 1 0 1 1 Panama 0 1 0 1 1 Venezuela 0 0 4 4 1 Ecuador 0 0 3 3 1 Barbados 0 0 1 1 0 Haiti 0 0 1 1 0 This would be a tremendous result for Brazil. It's strange to not see Cuba at the top of the medal table but honestly this about as good a result as possible for them here. Flip side of things for the US where this would be a very poor result but they are much more likely to outperform this than underperform further. They did definetely get a bit unlucky draw wise certainly compared to Brazil and Colombia. Other than that 5 medals would be a very good outcome for Canada although only an average one from an Olympic qualifying perspective and Ecuador and Venezuela would probably both be left quite disappointed if it plays out like this. (Although Venezuela have already lost a projected medal at 57kg).

Men's predictions part 2. M51kg Gold- Roscoe Hill , Silver- Ramon Nicanor Quiroga , Bronze- Oscar Castaneda , Jabali Breedy . Other Olympic calibre boxers- Yuberjen Martinez , Luis Delgado . The top bracket of this draw is very let's say open. Justin Parina fights Central American silver medallist Junior Alcantara and the winner will face the unproven Oscar Castaneda. I'll take the unproven boxer against this calibre of opposition. The second bracket is pretty loaded though, 2021 world silver medallist Roscoe Hill meets Alejandro Claro Fiz in the last 16. Claro Fiz doesn't have a whole lot going for him other than that he is Cuban and won their selection trials though. The winner will meet Central American champion and Rio silver medallist Yuberjen Martinez. Assuming we get Hill vs Martinez I am not sure which way this one will go although whoever wins will very likely go on to win gold here. The third bracket is fascinatingly even, Michael Trindade likely meets the winner of 2023 panam champ Keymberth Gonzalez vs Jabali Breedy. Breedy is the most established but I honestly don't know. South American champion Luis Delgado got about as good a draw as he could have hoped for with a quarter final against the established Ramon Nicanor Quiroga and one of the above boxers in the semis standing between him and an Olympic spot. I'm going to pick the strandja silver medallist Quiroga though because his 2023 form is better. M71kg Gold- Marco Verde , Silver- Wanderson de Oliveira , Bronze- Jhonathan Arboleda , Christiann Palacio . Other Olympic calibre boxers- Omari Jones . This draw is a bit lopsided as well. At the top Jhonathan Arboleda should medal having to come through only Jhonny Fernandez and Eduardo Beckford who he beat in the semi finals of the Central American champs earlier this year. The secodn bracket here is stacked with 2022 panam champ and 2023 Central American champion Marco Verde taking on world quarter finallist Jorge Cuellar and 2021 world silver medallist Omari Jones taking on promisng youngster Angel Llanos . Verde beat Jones last year and we may well see them matchup again here. Christiann Palacio is very likely to make the semis here having gotten a very straightforward draw up until that point. World bronze medallist Wanderson de Oliveira's toughest fight before the final may well be his first one against 2022 panam silver medallist Jose Rodriguez . M80kg Gold- Arlen Lopez , Silver- Wanderley Pereira , Bronze- Keven Beasejour , Cedrick Belony-Duliepre . Other Olympic calibre boxers- Robby Gonzalez , Christian Pinales . There could have been a really interesting question here of weighing two time Olympic champion Arlen Lopez' recent patchy form against his experience and nous for showing up when it really counts but the draw he got was very straightforward so the risk of him not qualifying is quite low. His quarter final against Central American silver medallist Jhojan Caicedo should at least be somewhat interesting. The draw has opened up for 2023 panam champ Keven Beasejour to win a medal here with only a couple of experienced pros in Julio Alamos and Abraham Buonnarigo or Desmond Amsterdam in his way. On the other side of the draw 2021 world champion Robby Gonzalez got about as tough a draw as posible here meeting Central American champ (including beating Arlen Lopez) Christian Pinales before a prospective quarter final against world middleweight silver medallist Wanderley Pereira in a quarter final. The final bracket of this draw has absolutely nobody. I have no idea who of Eliezer Brito , Charles Cox , Cedrick Belony-Duliepre and Jaden Ecclestone will medal but one of them has to. Cedrick Belony-Duliepre appears to be Canadian or at least based there so I guess I'll pick him. Very little chance any of them even last the full three rounds in the semis though. Despite having the 2021 world and Olympic champions, this really isn't a very strong field. M92kg Gold- Julio Cesar La Cruz ,Silver- Keno Machado , Bronze- Julio Castillo , Bryan Colwell . Other Olympic calibre boxers- Jamar Talley . Julio Cesar La Cruz is not the dominant force he was for so long and he does have a couple of losses this year but he does start as the favourite here. He has got a tough draw meeting 2022 panam champ Jamar Talley in the last 16. The young American is talented but is unlikely to trouble La Cruz. After a quarter final against Andrews Salgado , La Cruz will then likely matchup against only man who can match his experience in Julio Castillo. Although, Castillo does have to beat 2023 panam champ Rogelio Romero first. A potential Castillo vs La Cruz fight would be a battle where the winner would make it to their fourth Olympics. Then again La Cruz has 2 gold medals from those appearances and Castillo hasn't even won a fight. Both should ultimately make it though. Brazil got some good draws especially in the heavier weights and this one is no exception with only a quarter final against either Central American silver medallist Marlon Hurtado or bronze medallist from the same event Daniel Guzman both of which Keno Machado has beaten before realistically standing in his way. Canada didn't get any great draws from an Olympic perspective but do have the opportunity to pick up a couple of cheap medals with a likely quarter final between Bryan Colwell and Emmanuel Pompey deciding the last medal here.