Ogreman

Anyway final thoughts on our individual medal chances, Still going to use favourites, contenders and outside chances but I think I will split contenders into two tiers just to add a bit more nuance. Most of my thoughts haven’t really changed (Are on page 16 of the qualification tracker, for my own reference more than anything else). Athletics Favourites Rhasidat Adeleke- So third fastest in the field this year but that’s not including Marileidy Paulino. Nikisha Pryce obviously seems to be in tremendous form but I would be skeptical of her ability to produce a mid-48 run in an Olympic final. Adeleke before last year had never failed to run her best time at a major championships so look it will be close but my take at this point is she wins silver behind Paulino with Kaczmarek in bronze. Mixed 4*400- I don’t understand the talk of Adeleke skipping this at all, why would you give up a medal chance for possibly an ever so slightly better chance at winning a different medal. I mentioned this before but the time of 3:09.9 we ran at Europeans has never failed to medal at a major championships and O’Donnell, Barr and Adeleke in theory should all be in better form. We start as comfortable favourites for bronze and could push the Dutch for silver. I’m sure the likes of Italy, the Brits and Belgium won’t be too far behind but we are comfortable medal favourites here and have the margin for error needed to potentially rest Adeleke for the heats if need be although I would tempted to race her and tell her to take it easy. Good Contenders W4*400- So at Europeans we ran 3:24.8 with no Adeleke which is basically what we need to do to make the Olympic final and 3:22.7 with a very tired Adeleke which probably would leave us just outside the medals but is not far off at all, probably sub 3:22 needed to medal. Now Mawdlsey, Becker and Phil Healy have all had to have been in form from the jump this season so I would be a bit concerned that particularly Mawdsley who could easily race five times before the heats in this event if she makes the semis individually via the rep. There are reasons to be sceptical here but like it absolutely is a medal chance. Not so good Contenders Ciara Mageean- form doesn’t seem to be there. She has said in interviews that she isn’t sure why it isn’t there and it was only a couple of months ago that she won Europeans so we shouldn’t be too pessimistic here. I haven’t given up yet but in the past when she has had good major champs she has had very good buildups to those championships as well. Expectations Athletics- Hopefully Sarah Healy and maybe one other athlete can make a final. Coscoran, O’Sullivan or Lavin probably our best hopes there. While I am predicting we will win 2, any medal is a good result, 5/6 finals appearances would be satisfactory and 10 or so top 15s should probably be in and around the expectation for this team. Badminton- Realistically just a couple of wins for Nhat. Boxing This will all change when the draw happens but. Favourites Kellie Harrington- seeding draw went badly with a likely quarter final fight against world silver medallist Angie Valdez and a potential Tokyo Olympic final rematch to come in the semis if she gets there. Kellie has basically never failed to produce when it counts so despite never looking in great shape during this Olympic cycle I do think she is the favourite for gold. Aoife O’Rourke- Avoid another fight with Cindy Ngamba and this should be quite a safe bronze medal but I don’t see her beating Tammara Thibeault in a semi-final. This is either a disaster, bronze or gold. Those for me are the 3 scenarios here. Contenders Grainne Walsh - So 66kg is a weird bracket, there aren’t any easy draws but only Busenaz Surmeneli properly scares me and even she is beatable. Grainne Walsh looked convincing at the second world qualifier and I’m a lot higher than I was originally on her chances but I think when it comes down to it she will come up short against a counterpuncher. Jude Gallagher- 50% chance of drawing Jahmal Harvey or Abdumalik Khalokov which would make things tough. While this is a tough division, there is the potential for a very straightforward draw regardless of whether he gets one or not he is in with a chance. Daina Moorehouse- Seeding is all over the place so that means potential for extremely good or bad draws. Moorehouse will give anyone a tough fight but her narrow losses at the first two qualifiers are probably how this is destined to go Aidan Walsh- I think he is going to medal again. There just isn’t a single boxer in this draw that I wouldn’t go in to a fight against liking Aidan’s chances. This division is full of counterpunchers who aren’t as good at counterpunching as Aidan is. That said there are only 4/5 potential opponents I wouldn’t at least be nervous against and he will make it so nerve-wracking to watch. Jack Marley- Jack had a good seeding draw and is in this tier as a result but the unseeded boxers are as good as the seeded ones so even in the best case scenario it would still be at least one tough fight but he has a genuine chance. Not so good contenders- Michaela Walsh- I’ve come around a bit on Michaela Walsh as when I was doing my rankings I generally didn’t read too much into athletes who qualified early and then had some strange losses to start 2024. There isn’t a potential easy draw here and as such I still don’t think she has a great path to medal here but I think she will get closer than I thought she would a month or two ago. Outside chances Dean Clancy, Jennifer Lehane- Clancy is fine, he is a decent boxer just hasn’t yet shown the ceiling to medal here. There is one easier seeding bracket though so there is at least the potential for a lucky draw. Women’s bantamweight is wide open so Lehane has a chance like. She is a tier below the big contenders but you never know. Boxing expectations- For me 3 medals, Harrington, O’Rourke and 1 other provisionally Aidan Walsh. The main goal for me for the squad is just win more fights more fights we are underdogs in than lose fights in which we are favourites which I will measure using my rankings. Obviously it is boxing so can be incredibly volatile, could be glorious and win 4/5 or we could win 0/1 but the expectation is 3. Canoe-slalom Hopefully Liam Jegou or Noel Hendrick can make a final and let see how the kayak cross goes. Don’t really have many expectations here but excited to watch it. Cycling Contenders- Lara Gillespie in the omnium, interesting that she is racing the madison as it might have made sense for us to try and have her as fresh as possible for the omnium, look it will be tough but it is nice chance to have in the back pocket for the last day of the games to keep us dreaming all the way through whether we are having a good games or a bad one. Not so good contenders- Ben Healy was sick in the last week of the Tour so it is very hard to know what kind of legs he will show up with. If he has the legs he had in the first 2 weeks of the tour then I genuinely think he will at worst be in the shake up at the end, although his lack of a sprint could cost him but impossible to know how good his legs will be now. Cycling expectations- guaranteed a top 10 in the team pursuit, making the top 8 would be a great result, hopefully we at least finish the madison this time and given the TT field isn’t that strong maybe a top 15 for Ryan Mulllen there is on the cards. Diving- Hopefully make a semifinal, at least get close in one of the 2 events. Equestrian Favourites Team jumping- This is the one that I am confused that we aren’t more excited about. We are top of the league of nations, we won the nations cup in Aachen. I’m not sure what happened with Darragh Kenny’s top horse (Amsterdam 27) and Bertram Allen withdrawing from reserve as well stretches us a bit but we have possibly the best depth in the world. It is very easy for showjumping to go wrong and the Swedes, French, Dutch, Belgians, Americans etc will be strong as well but we are the form team here. Not so good contenders- Team eventing- I haven’t a good preview of this. I just want to know what the scores are expected to look like after dressage. Dressage is the key here, if we are in touch at that point, we have every chance but I just don’t know if we will be or not. Excited to find out. Individual jumping- Cian O’Connor (Maurice), Daniel Coyle (Legacy), Shane Sweetnam (James Kaan Cruz)- It is always tough but having 3 potentially in the mix increases our odds significantly. Outside chances Individual eventing- Austin O’Connor? As above with the team event, Be in touch after dressage and we have a chance. Equestrian expectations- A medal and 4/5 top tens. Field Hockey- Win a game, just one and it is a good tournament. Golf Contenders Rory McIlroy- Can say the US open disappointment didn’t affect him as much as he wants, that was a devastating loss. It would quite Rory to win here though. Shane Lowry- Good but frustrating open. Is clearly in form. Leona Maguire- Not in great form but is good enough. Outside chances Stephanie Meadow- could easily be in contention Golf expectations- Honestly we should expect a medal here but it is golf, 3 in the mix for me is the expectation. Hopefully it yields a medal but. Gymnastics- Rhys McClenaghan- Ok this is one I disagree with the skepticism about. Rhys McClenaghan is much more experienced than he was in Tokyo and seems to be over the falls that plagued him in 2021/2022. He has been here before and I know its pommel but most of the time gymnastics events go to form. Will need a near perfect routine to beat Whitlock but this is a safe medal. Gymnastics expectations- Silver medal Rowing Currently in the middle of rankings all of the boats for this regatta so my thoughts are somewhat incomplete. Favourites LM2x- Don’t be fooled by the world cup ii result. They are comfortable favourites. M2x- Dutch are comfortable favourites, Romania, Italy and us in some order behind although plenty of other potential protagonists with New Zealand, France, Germany etc. I think we win bronze here. Contenders W2- - Still think they are doomed to a fourth place finish behind the Netherlands, Australia and Romania. W2x- Haven’t had a great season and probably come in ranked 5th/6th behind Romania, the USA, Australia and Norway with Lithuania being a significant wildcard. I do think there is a lot of reasons for optimism here though and I can see the general public being completely unaware of them and RTE barely acknowledge their existence only for them to pop up and medal. M2- - The toughest one to know as we have no idea where their form is. They are world bronze medallists and if they replicate that final performance from last year they will medal again but obviously a very disrupted season. Rowing though, you don’t necessarily need that good a season, it just needs to come together at the right time. Not so good contenders LW2x – They rank somewhere from 5th to 8th with the Canadians, French and Greeks on form. I don’t know I feel optimistic about this boat and can see them beating New Zealand, the USA or Romania for a medal and I think they will at least make the Final. This may just be me being optimistic and I’m not sure the evidence really points to them having a medal chance. Rowing expectations- I maintain that this season has looked very similar to the last 2 years where we ultimately won 3 global medals in Olympic events but I accept that we only have 2 favourites and one of those is quite tentative so 2 medals is probably the expected outcome. Anything less 6 finals is a disappointment though. Rugby Sevens Contenders- I’m so nervous for this now, We have a really good chance. Crucial first game against South Africa but then its either beat New Zealand for a quarter final likely against South Africa or the USA or a lose to New Zealand and face a quarter final probably against France or possibly Fiji. We are absolutely good enough but I’m not brave enough to pick a medal here. Not so good contenders- Women’s sevens- Will need to either upset Australia in the pools or France/ New Zealand/ Australia in the quarter-finals to make the semis. If we can do that we could sneak a bronze, but it will be tough. Sevens Expectations- Men- Make the semis, Women- be competitive in a quarter final. Sailing Not so good contenders- Finn Lynch (ILCA7)- Needs a lot to go right but has produced this calibre fo performance before Outisde Chances- Eve McMahon- Is this the tournament where she comes of age in the senior ranks, If not then not a medal chance. If so then could become a real chance in a hurry. Men’s 49er- Have stagnated a bit, but will likely win a race or two, consistency is the question mark. Sailing expectations- Is two medal races and optimistic projection? Maybe, maybe not. Swimming Favourites Daniel Wiffen- Two really good chances, especially with no Hafnouai and Sam Short potentially not being in great form. It is possible he wins one medal but I think it is likely he either wins 2 or 0. I trust him, so let’s say silver in the 1500, bronze in the 800. Contenders Mona McSharry- Apparently her entire focus has been on these Olympics which explains a slightly disappointing world championships. Needs the swim of her life to medal but I would also expect her to have the swim of her life. Swimming expectations- I’m willing to say 2 medals. Outside of the three potential medal events hopefully 3/4 other semi finals/ top 16s and maybe one additional final/top 8 (open water). Taekwondo Not so good contenders- Jack Woolley- hopefully can beat Magomedov in the last 16, then have a go at Vito dell’Aquila but safe in the knowledge that there is decent chance of a rep even if he loses. Taekwondo expectation- Win a round. See where that leaves us medal chances wise. Predicted medals Favourites Contenders Tier 2 contenders Outside chances Total contenders (including favourites) Athletics 2 2 1 1 0 4 Badminton 0 0 0 0 0 0 Boxing 3 2 5 1 2 8 Canoe Slalom 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cycling 0 0 1 1 0 2 Diving 0 0 0 0 0 0 Equestrian 1 1 0 4 1 5 Field Hockey 0 0 0 0 0 0 Golf 0 0 3 1 0 4 Gymanstics 1 1 0 0 0 1 Rowing 2 2 3 1 0 6 Rugby Sevens 0 0 1 1 0 2 Sailing 0 0 0 1 2 1 Swimming 2 2 1 0 0 3 Taekwondo 0 0 0 1 0 1 Total 11 10 15 12 5 37 Predicted medals (2 gold, 4 silver, 5 bronze) Gold- Kellie Harrington (W60kg boxing) Gold- Lightweight Men’s Double Sculls Silver- Rhys McClenaghan (Pommel horse) Silver- Team Showjumping Silver- Daniel Wiffen (1500m freestyle) Silver- Rhasidat Adeleke (400m) Bronze- Aoife O’Rourke (W75kg boxing) Bronze- Daniel Wiffen (800m freestyle) Bronze- Men’s Double Sculls Bronze- Aidan Walsh (M71kg boxing) (realistically subject to change after the draw) Bronze- Mixed 4*400m relay. I know, I know I am setting myself up for disappointment and we are Irish so everything will go wrong but these are what I honestly think will happen in each sport and hopefully my contenders thing is at least somewhat convincing. I ended up with 37 contenders which at a medal rate of 36% would be 13.5 medals. I don’t think we will do that well but I think it shows that predicting 11 is far from outlandish.

My Final thoughts on Ireland’s medal prospects. So first of all, I thought it was interesting that everyone other than me had settled on expecting a figure of 5-7 medals, which look in historical is as good as our best ever Olympics but I do think undersells the quality of this Olympic team. So what I thought was interesting is that despite me being a lot higher on our medal hopes than others here we all generally seem to agree that we have mid 30s or so medal contenders. Now exactly how you define a contender is a bit ambiguous but I was interested to look at Tokyo and try to assess how many contenders countries had and what that translated to medal wise. Now retrospectively defining contenders isn’t ideal particularly for sports I have very little knowledge of so there is a margin for error here but they should be similar to who we are now defining as contenders for Irelands. For example for Wrestling I just had a rule of if you medalled or lost a medal fight you were a contender and if not you weren’t so its not perfect but the error should cancel itself out ie. There are as many contenders included that weren't actually contenders as actual contenders that i didn't include. I left out the top 10 countries by number of athetes (and for some reason Brazil, I didn’t have that strict a rule.) as obviously the likes of the USA don’t have a skewed list of contenders as only their best athletes actually get to go to the Olympics. (Also it would have taken ages). I also didn’t include countries without at least 18 or so athletes but I did include countries that had chances but didn’t win any medals. I can post the entire list of the 65 countries or so I looked at but the gist of it is that 40% of who I retrospectively defined as a contender for Tokyo were medallists. Now I do accept that these numbers are probably skewed a bit by countries that are strong in one/ two specific sports and therefore have a higher contenders to medal ratios. Just looking at Cuba (wrestling, boxing, Jumping events), Kenya, Ethiopia (distance running), Jamaica (Sprinting), and Georgia (Wrestling, Weightlifting). They do have a slightly higher medal to contender ratio but only marginally at 42%. Anyway I accept there may be flaws with looking too generally so just looking at the 8 countries that profile as similarly to Ireland’s squad for Paris. (133 athletes 33-38 or so contenders) Country Athletes Medals Contenders Hungary 169 20 41 New Zealand 220 20 40 Sweden 136 9 33 Switzerland 107 13 33 Belgium 123 7 30 Denmark 108 11 29 Ireland 116 4 26 Czechia 115 11 26 Now first thing that stands out is that we underperformed in Tokyo but we already knew that. So just looking at these 8 countries from Tokyo, 36.8% of these contenders medalled in Tokyo. I believe the average number of contenders listed by myself, Dodge, and Cosmo a couple of months ago was 35.5 which would mean that this analysis would give us an expected medal total of 13. Now I accept that this analysis lacks nuance but like the primary reason this could be prove inaccurate is if Ireland’s medal contenders this time around were skewed towards being weaker medal contenders and I really don’t think that is true. We have the 22nd largest team and look I don’t have the knowledge to define contenders across the board for this Olympics for every country but I would assume we would rank similarly in terms of the number of contenders we have. So it is strange to me to not expect to at least finish in the 20s in the medal table/ number of total medals. That is not to say oh we are going to guaranteed to go and win 13, far from it. Just that I do think that our perceptions of medal chances are (understandably) quite influenced by past Irish failures and I think if a different country with a better history had this squad they would look at this squad and go easily 9/10 medals, how high into double figures can we go. Now we don’t have that history and its very possible past failures bite us again but I think winning 6/7 medals is what that would be, I think that is the scenario where things go wrong. A lot more has to go wrong than right for us to not reach at least 8 or so medals.

Individual Events Table Points Athlete Nation Event Won/Lost 30 Mondo Duplantis Men's Pole vault Won 29 Janja Garnbret Sport climbing combined Won 28 Katie Ledecky Women's 1500m freestyle Won 27 Simone Biles Women's artistic gymnastics Individual All-around Won 26 Qiu Qiyuan Uneven bars Lost 25 Summer McIntosh Women's 400m IM Won 24 Zou Jingyuan Parallel bars Won 23 Yaroslava Mahuchikh Women's High jump Won 22 Harrie Lavreysen Track Cycling Men's Individual sprint Won 21 Faith Kipyegon Women's 1500m Won 20 Bakhodir Jalolov Boxing Men's 92+kg Won 19 Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone Women's 400m hurdles Won 18 Liu Yang Rings Won 17 Leon Marchand Men's 400m IM Won 16 Karolien Florijn Women's Single sculls Won 15 Li Wenwen Weightlifting Women's 81+kg Won 14 Hou Zhihui Weightlifting Women's 49kg Won 13 Ryan Crouser Men's Shot put Won 12 Liu Huanhua Weightlifting Men's 102kg Won 11 Daiki Hashimoto Men's artistic gymnastics Individual All-around Lost 10 Li Fabin Weightlifting Men's 61kg Won 9 Emma Finucane Track Cycling Women's Individual Sprint Lost 8 Ethan Katzberg Men's Hammer Won 7 Jakob Ingebrigtsen Men's 5000m Won 6 Sam Short Men's 400m freestyle Lost 5 Grant Holloway Men's 110m hurdles Won 4 Joshua Cheptegei Men's 10000m Won 3 Kayley McKeown Women's 100m backstroke Won 2 Tammara Thibeault Boxing Women's 75kg Lost 1 Nina Kennedy Women's Pole Vault Won Duo Events Table Points Athlete Nation Event Won/Lost 30 Emily Craig/ Imogen Grant Women's Lightweight double sculls Won 27 Lian Junjie/ Yang Hao M10m synchro platform Won 24 Wang Zongyuan/ Long Daoyi M3m sycnhro springboard Won 21 Chen Yuxi/Quan Hongchan W10m synchro platform Won 18 Stefan Broenink/ Melvin Twellaar Men's double sculls Lost 15 Paul O'Donovan/ Fintan McCarthy Men's Lightweight double sculls Won 12 Ancuta Bodnar/ Simona Radis Women's double sculls Lost 9 Chang Yani/ Chen Yiwen W3m synchro springboard Won 6 Ymkje Clevering/ Veronique Meester Women's pair Won 3 Zheng Siwei/ Huang Yaqiong Badminton mixed doubles Won Team Events Table Points Athlete Nation Event Won/Lost 30 USA artistic gymnastics team Women's team artistic gymnastics Won 28 Australia swimming Women's 4*200 relay Women's 4*200 freestyle relay Won 26 China Men's table tennis Men's team table tennis Won 24 China Women's table tennis Women's team table tennis Won 22 Netherlands field hockey Women's Field Hockey Won 20 Great Britain Equestrian eventing team Team Eventing Won 18 USA athletics Women's 4*400m relay team Women's 4*400m relay Won 16 USA Men's basketball team Men's basketball Won 14 Netherlands Men's quad Men's quadruple sculls Won 12 Netherlands track cycling team sprint Men's team sprint Won 10 Romania Women's eight Women's eight Won 8 USA athletics Women's 4*100m relay Women's 4*100m relay Won 6 French triathlon mixed relay team Triathlon mixed relay Lost 4 New Zealand Women's rugby sevens team Women's rugby sevens Won 2 Japan's Judo team Judo Mixed team event Lost

[hide] General (15) 1 - Pacific Island nations in Oceania (including New Zealand, not Australia) will win more medals than Caribbean nations. 11 2 - At least six south american nations will medal. 6 3 - At least two NOCs will win their first olympic medal. 4 4 - Mexico will finish higher than Colombia in the medal table. 5 - At least two of these NOCs (which haven't won a medal since Sydney 2000 or before) will medal again in Paris 2024: Barbados, Costa Rica, Guyana, Haiti, Iraq, Lebanon, Luxembourg, Mozambique, Pakistan, Peru, Sri Lanka, Suriname, Tanzania, Tonga, Uruguay, US Virgin Islands, Zambia. 6 - Will Italy and the Netherlands win more total gold medals than France. 9 7 - Will Ethiopia finish in the top 20 of the medal count? (Tie for 20th =Yes). 6 8 - At least one individual podium from Tokyo 2020 will be repeated (same people in the same positions). 9 - At least one individual medallist from Beijing 2008 will win an individual medal. 4 10 - Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) will win a combined total of 10 or more medals. 11 11 - Denmark will end with 5 (all-time best) or more Gold medals. 4 12 - Bosnia&Herzegovina or Albania will win their first Olympic medal. 6 13 - Hong Kong will finish above Chinese Taipei on the Medal Table. 6 14 - Indonesia and Thailand will be only two countries/NOCs from Southeast Asia that will win gold medals from this region. 11 15 - Top three Asian nations at the overall medal table placement: China, Japan, South Korea. 12 Aquatics - Diving (2) 16 - North Korea will win at least one medal. 9 17 - The four chinese synchronized teams will win with at least 172 points in total to their opponents in second places in the four synchronized events. For comparison the chinese synchronized teams have won with 173,58 points (WCH 2023) and 170,86 points (WCH 2024). 3 Aquatics - Swimming (8) 18 - Australia will win more gold medals than the USA. 4 19 - Summer McIntosh will win four or more medals. 7 20 - The winner of the women's 100m Backstroke will go under 57 seconds. 2 21 - Leon Marchand will win 2 or more gold medals. 10 22 - One of Caeleb Dressel, Kristof Milak or Adam Peaty will win an individual gold medal. 4 23 - An athlete will make a false start during one of the finals sessions. 7 24 - Australia will win a medal in all 7 relays. 10 25 - There will be a podium consisting of only junior swimmers (all born in 2006 or younger). 3 Aquatics - Synchronized Swimming (1) 26 - At least one NOC will win its first Olympic medal. 4 Aquatics - Water Polo (2) 27 - The USA women's team will lose a match. 6 28 - Only one nation will reach the semifinals in both competitions. Archery (2) 29 - At least one non-Asian country will win a gold medal in any event. 2 30 - South Korea will only win one gold medal. 9 Athletics (10) 31 - Men’s 100m- These three USA sprinters (N.Lyles/K.Bednarek/F.Kerley) will reach the final . 8 32 - Italy will win at least 5 medals. 33 - Canada will win both hammer throw events. 10 34 - Norway will be in the top 5 of medal table. 12 35 - Only one athlete will defend his/her Tokyo gold medal (relays excluded). 12 36 - Eritrea will win at least one medal. 9 37 - Ukraine will win more than one medal in women's high jump. 38 - At least one of the medal winners in any relay will later be disqualified due to a wrong exchange or crossing the line to another lane. 39 - France will win more gold medals than Great Britain . 12 40 - Finland will win more medals than Sweden. 12 Badminton (2) 41 - Three seeded players will be eliminated in the group stage. 11 42 - Gregoria Tunjung will win a medal. Basketball (2) 43 - Men's Tournament - United States will lose the gold medal match. 9 44 - Women's Tournament - Two different continents will be represented in the gold medal match. 11 Basketball 3x3 (2) 45 - Women's Tournament - The podium will consist of NOCs from three different continents. 2 46 - Men's Tournament - There will be one NOC who will win all its matches in the group stage. 5 Boxing (3) 47 - Ireland will be the NOC who will win most medals among European NOCs. [YES - 5] 48 - Cuba will fail to win any medal. [NO - 12] 49 - Australia will win more than 1 medal. [NO - 12] Breakdance (2) 50 - B-Girls event- D. Bancevic (LTU) (B-Girl Nicka) or A. Fukushima (JPN) (B-Girl Ayumi) will win the gold medal. 51 - B-Boys event- The final matchup will be P. Kim (CAN) (B-Boy Phil Wizard) vs. V. Montalvo (USA) (B-Boy Victor). 7 Canoeing - Slalom (2) 52 - At least 2 non-European NOCs will win a medal. 53 - In either women's W K1 & W C1, at least one winner of the qualification will fail to advance to the final from semifinal. 7 Canoeing - Sprint (2) 54 - In at least one of the K1-events for women or men, a NOC will win gold and silver. 8 55 - Germany will top the medal table. Cycling - BMX (2) 56 - France will have all three male riders in the BMX racing Olympic final. 4 57 - United States will win 1 medal or less in the BMX freestyle events. 2 Cycling - Mountain Bike (2) 58 - Switzerland will win at least one gold and silver medal. 9 59 - A non-European NOC will win at least one medal. Cycling - Road (2) 60 - Men's - The Benelux-countries (Belgium, Luxembourg and Netherlands) will win at least 3 medals. 10 61 - Women's - There will be 3 different NOCs on the podium in the women's road race. Cycling - Track (3) 62 - Harrie Lavreysen will not lose a single race/heat (including qualification and knockout) in the individual spint. 8 63 - France will not win gold medal. 64 - European NOCs will win at least 9 out of the 12 medals in the sprint events for both men and women, individual and team. Equestrian (2) 65 - At least two out of the three defending Olympic gold medallist in the three team events from Tokyo 2020 will defend their gold medals. 11 66 - The medalists in the individual dressage event will also win a medal in the team dressage event. 10 Fencing (3) 67 - Team events - At least one of the African NOC's will win its quarterfinal match and advance to a semfinal. 8 68- Individual events - At least 2 out of the 6 individual 2023 world champions will win gold. 69 - Either France, Hungary, Italy or fencers from these NOCs will be presented at every podium. Field Hockey (2) 70 - The top scorer of the women's competition will be a dutch player. 10 71 - Great Britain will win a medal (men's or women's). 10 Football (2) 72 - Spain will at least win either the women's or men's gold medal. 1 73 - At least one player born 2000 or before will receive a red card in the men's tournament. 12 Golf (1) 74 - USA will not win a medal in either women's or men's event. 12 Gymnastics - Artistic (3) 75 - At least two NOCs will win their first Olympic medal. 6 76 - Men's - Daiki Hashimoto will be the only male gymnasts to defend an olympic title in one of the individual events. 12 77 - Women's - Qiu Qiyuan will win at least two medals in the apparatus events. Gymnastics - Rhythmic (1) 78 - Bulgaria will defend their Olympic title in the team event. Gymnastics - Trampoline (1) 79 - China will win gold in both men's and women's event. Handball (2) 80 - Men's - France will defend its Olympic gold from Tokyo 2020. 81 - Women's - France will not make the final. 9 Judo (3) 82 - At least one athlete will win gold by winning all fights by Ippon. 2 83 - France will win more gold medals than Japan. 1 84 - Japan will win the team event. Modern Pentathlon (2) 85 - Egypt will fail to win any medals in both men's and women's events. 86 - At least one of the two defending Olympic gold medallists (Joe Choong and Kate French) will defend their gold medal. Rowing (2) 87 - Romania will win at least 5 medals. 11 88 - Netherlands will top the medal table. 11 Rugby Sevens (2) 89 - The women's final will feature Australia and New Zealand. 90 - At least one medal match will be decided in extra-time. Sailing (3) 91 - France, Netherlands and Italy will be the top 3 NOCs in the medal table. 10 92 - Maximilian Maeder will win Singapore's first Olympic medal in Sailing. 8 93 - Great Britain will not win any medals in men's events. Shooting (3) 94 - China will win Gold in 50% or more (7+ Gold) of the total events. 1 95 - India will win at least 3 medals. 96 - At least one NOC will win more than one medal in a single mixed team event. 1 Skateboard (2) 97 - Teenagers (age 19 or younger) will win every gold medal in the skateboarding events. 3 98 - There will not be a medalists from the Tokyo 2020-podiums in skateboarding street events that will be at the podiums in Paris 2024. 4 Sport Climbing (2) 99 - The women’s lead semi final will have more tops than the final. 100 - Men's speed climbing podium will consist of only Asian NOCs. Surfing (2) 101 - A European NOC will win at least one medal. 102 - At least one medallist will have been through Round 2. Table Tennis (2) 103 - Wang/Sun (CHN) will lose maximum one set during the mixed double tournament. 104 - France will be only non-Asian NOC to win a medal. 8 Taekwondo (2) 105 - The NOC to win most medals will at maximum win 3 medals in total. 5 106 - There will not be a NOC who will win two or more gold medals. Tennis (2) 107 - At least one player (man or woman) that has never advanced further than the round of 16 at the French Open singles tournament will win a singles medal in Paris 2024. 2 108 - An unseeded team will make final in women's doubles event. Triathlon (2) 109 - Mixed Relay event - The difference between the 1st-placed and 2nd-placed NOCs will be less than 12 seconds. 110 - France will win an individual medal in either men's or women's event. 11 Volleyball - Indoor (2) 111 - Men's - Poland will win at least a silver medal. 3 112 - A team from the Asian Volleyball Confederation will win a medal (men's or women's). 1 Volleyball - Beach (2) 113 - Women’s event- A North American duo (USA/CAN) will win the gold medal. 114 - Men’s event- Bryl/Losiak (POL) will advance further in the tournament than Diaz/Alayo (CUB)? (If both are eliminated at the same stage e.g. Round of 16, then “No” will count). 5 Weightlifting (2) 115 - United States will be placed 2nd in the medal table. 116 - At least two world records will be broken (snatch, clean and jerk or overall). 7 Wrestling (4) 117 - Kyrgyzstan will win at least one gold medal (first Olympic gold in their history). 3 118 - Freestyle - Albania will win a medal. 7 119 - Greco-Roman - At least 4 out 6 finals will be decided within a one point difference (Example: 2-1, 3-2... or 1-1, 2-2..etc.) . 120 - Women's - Japan will win medals in at least 5 classes. [/hide]

A bit of both I suppose. Look he did well during the qualfiers and he has moved up in my rankings accordingly, originally I didn't think he had much chance of qualifying although I did correctly pick him to come through the second world qualifier. He didn't have that tough a draw in the early rounds of any of the 3 qualifiers. There isn't much between him and Han Xuezhen or Victor Schelstraete and would give him a decent shot at beating either but they are both awkward tricky opponents who have the odd impressive win against other boxers in this draw and Bereznicki just isn't/doesn't. He is a decent counterpuncher but hasn't really shown any ability to threaten the top 10 or so boxers in the draw, Patrick Brown completely overpowered him at the 1st world qualifier, Jack Marley breezed past him at European under 22s 2 years ago. Davlat Boltaev is an interesting comparison as he has a similar style to Bereznicki but is just more precise and more difficult to hit. So to simplify he could easily be 12th rather than 14th but I wouldn't really expect much from him beyond that adn to answer your original quetion, this is quite a strong lineup although far from the toughest division but also I haven't been that convinced by Bereznicki. Well the really simple explanation for Sanford is he lost to Jesus Cova at panamerican championships just before panam games so he goes behind Jesus Cova and Cova is ranked 12th so he goes 13th. No but like Dodge hit the nail on the head in relation to mini tiers and both of these boxers fall into that category of being ranked at the back of a mini tier and I don't think Sanford is far behind Hasanov , Clancy or Cova. What I would say though is like I'm not sure Sanford's aggresive constantly coming forward style will prove as effective at the Olympics where everyone puts everything into every fight and it is much harder to win fights by just outworking your opponent. Look I would be interested to see how a rematch with Cova would go but I think his 2022 commonwealth games loss to Reece Lynch is a decent indication of how a fight with Hasanov or Clancy would go who are both comfortably better than Lynch. Then again as he is seeded and avoided the big names seeding wise he is comfortably the most likely of the 4 to medal and if he gets significant luck with the draw may not even need to beat someone I have ranked ahead of him to reach the podium.

Boxers Projected gold Projected silver Projected bronze Total Contenders (top 8) Outside chances (9-12) Uzbekistan 11 3 1 3 8 0 Turkey 8 2 0 0 3 3 Kazakhstan 10 1 3 0 6 3 Ireland 10 1 1 0 7 3 France 8 1 0 1 4 3 Italy 8 1 0 1 3 1 Chinese Taipei 6 1 0 1 3 1 North Korea 2 1 0 0 2 0 Ukraine 3 1 0 0 1 1 Canada 2 1 0 0 1 0 Brazil 10 0 2 1 6 2 USA 8 0 1 2 4 2 Bulgaria 5 0 1 2 4 0 India 6 0 1 0 4 2 Philippines 5 0 1 0 3 1 Algeria 5 0 1 0 1 0 Mexico 4 0 1 0 1 0 China 8 0 0 5 6 1 Cuba 5 0 0 2 5 0 Thailand 8 0 0 1 3 3 Great Britain and NI 6 0 0 1 3 2 Australia 12 0 0 1 3 1 Colombia 5 0 0 1 3 0 Congo 5 0 0 1 3 0 Serbia 3 0 0 1 2 1 Georgia 2 0 0 1 2 0 Refugee team 2 0 0 1 1 0 Denmark 1 0 0 1 1 0 Spain 6 0 0 0 2 2 Azerbaijan 5 0 0 0 1 3 Poland 5 0 0 0 1 1 Tajikistan 3 0 0 0 1 1 South Korea 2 0 0 0 1 1 Dominican Republic 3 0 0 0 1 0 Germany 2 0 0 0 1 0 Norway 2 0 0 0 1 0 Zambia 2 0 0 0 1 0 Croatia 1 0 0 0 1 0 Panama 1 0 0 0 1 0 Romania 1 0 0 0 1 0 Belgium 3 0 0 0 0 2 Jordan 3 0 0 0 0 2 Venezuela 2 0 0 0 0 2 Hungary 3 0 0 0 0 1 Morocco 3 0 0 0 0 1 Mozambique 2 0 0 0 0 1 Puerto Rico 2 0 0 0 0 1 Armenia 1 0 0 0 0 1 Kosovo 1 0 0 0 0 1 Kyrgyzstan 1 0 0 0 0 1 Netherlands 1 0 0 0 0 1 Ecuador 3 0 0 0 0 0 Egypt 3 0 0 0 0 0 Nigeria 2 0 0 0 0 0 Cape Verde 2 0 0 0 0 0 DR Congo 2 0 0 0 0 0 Mongolia 2 0 0 0 0 0 Sweden 2 0 0 0 0 0 Vietnam 2 0 0 0 0 0 Finland 1 0 0 0 0 0 Haiti 1 0 0 0 0 0 Japan 1 0 0 0 0 0 Montenegro 1 0 0 0 0 0 Palestine 1 0 0 0 0 0 Samoa 1 0 0 0 0 0 Slovakia 1 0 0 0 0 0 Solomon Islands 1 0 0 0 0 0 Tonga 1 0 0 0 0 0 Tunisia 1 0 0 0 0 0 Table of what the medal table would look like strictly based off my rankings. Does not take account of seeding so is already wrong. Uzbekistan as you would expect are massive favourites to top the medal table here but given how Tokyo went for them they will know how volatile boxing often is. Kazakhstan are probably slight favourites to at least win the second most total medals but after that it is anyone's game really (well not quite anyone but). GB with a small and not particularly strong squad and no Russia mean the medal table will look very different to last time. Of course the actually medal table or even my predicted medal table will look very different to this, the point of this table is to assess the quality of countries' contingents and not to accurately predict their medal prospects.

Olympic Rankings (M80kg,M92kg,M92+kg) M80kg M92kg M92+kg 1 Oleksandr Khyzniak (UKR) (3) Aziz Abbes Mouhiidine (ITA) (3) Bakhodir Jalolov (UZB) (4) 2 Nurbek Oralbay (KAZ) Keno Machado (BRA) (6) Kamshybek Kunkabayev (KAZ) (7) 3 Tuohetaebieke Tanglatihan (CHN) (1) Julio Cesar la Cruz (CUB) (4) Teremoana Jnr (AUS) (5) 4 Arlen Lopez (CUB) (2) Lazizbek Mullojonov (UZB) Joshua Edwards (USA) (1) 5 Turbaek Khabibullaev (UZB) Aybek Oralbay (KAZ) Nelvie Tiafack (GER) 6 Eumir Marcial (PHI) (7) Loren Alfosno Domniguez (AZE) Abner Texeira (BRA) (6) 7 Cristian Pinales (DOM) Enamanuel Reyes (ESP) Ayoub Ghafa Drissi El Aissaoui (ESP) 8 Gabrijel Veocic (CRO) (8) Georgii Kushitashvili (GEO) Delicious Orie (GBR) (2) 9 Wanderley Pereira (BRA) (6) Jack Marley (IRL) (7) Davit Chaloyan (ARM) 10 Weerapon Jongjoho (THA) Patrick Brown (GBR) Diego Lenzi (ITA) 11 Hussein Iashaish (JOR) Davlat Boltaev (TJK) (2) Mahammud Abdullayev (AZE) (8) 12 Pylyp Akilov (HUN) Victor Schelstraete (BEL) Djamili Aboudou Moindze (FRA) 13 Salvatore Cavallaro (ITA) Han Xuezhen (CHN) (8) Omar Shiha (NOR) 14 Murad Allahverdiyev (AZE) Mateusz Bereznicki (POL) Dmytro Lovchynskyi(UKR) 15 Callum Peters (AUS) (5) Ato Plodzicki Faoagali (SAM) (1) Gerlon Congo (ECU) 16 Kaan Aykutsun (TUR) Adam Olaore (NGR) (5) Mourad Kadi (ALG) (3) 17 Abdelrahman Oraby Abdelgawwad (EGY) (4) 18 Cedrick Belony Duliepre (HAI)

Olympic Rankings (M51kg,M57kg,M63.5kg,M71kg) M51kg M57kg M63.5kg M71kg 1 Hasanboy Dusmatov (UZB) (2) Abdumalik Khalokov (UZB) (1) Sofiane Oumiha (FRA) (4) Aslanbek Shymbergenov (KAZ) 2 Saken Bibossinov (KAZ) Jahmal Harvey (USA) (3) Ruslan Abdullaev (UZB) Marco Verde (MEX) (2) 3 Billal Bennama (FRA) (1) Luiz Oliveira (BRA) Bunjong Sinsiri (THA) (6) Asadkhuja Muydinkhujaev (UZB) 4 Roscoe Hill (USA) Javier Ibanez (BUL) (2) Lasha Guruli (GEO) (7) Nikolai Terteryan (DEN) (4) 5 Amit Panghal (IND) Carlo Paalam (PHI) Bahodur Usmonov (TJK) Sewon Okazawa (JAP) (3) 6 Alejandro Claro (CUB) Yilmar Gonzalez (COL) Erislandy Alvarez (CUB) Omari Jones (USA) 7 Thitisan Panmot (THA) (6) Jude Galllagher (IRL) Harry Garside (AUS) (5) Nishant Dev (IND) 8 Patrick Chinyemba (ZAM) (3) Saidel Horta (CUB) (6) Radoslav Rosenov (BUL) Aidan Walsh (IRL) 9 Samet Gumus (TUR) (7) Mahmud Sabyrkhan (KAZ) Mukhamedsabyr Bazarbay Uulu (KAZ) Zeyad Eashash (JOR) 10 Nijat Huseynov (AZE) Aider Abduraimov (UKR) Malik Hasanov (AZE) Vakhid Abbasov (SRB) (6) 11 Rafa Lozano Jr (ESP) Jose Quiles Brotons (ESP) (8) Dean Clancy (IRL) Tugrulhan Erdemir (TUR) (WD?) 12 Juanma Lopez (PUR) Munarbek Seitbek Uulu (KGZ) Jesu Cova (VEN) Lewis Richardson (GBR) 13 Junior Alcantara (DOM) (4) Vasile Ustoroi (BEL) Wyatt Sanford (CAN) (1) Damian Durkacz (POL) 14 David de Pina (CPV) Nebil Ibrahim (SWE) Miguel Martinez (MEX) (8) Rami Kiwan (BUL) 15 Michael de Trindade (BRA) (8) Shudai Harada (JPN) (7) Obada Al Kasbeh (JOR) Makan Traore (FRA) 16 Omid Ahmadisafa (REF) Dolapo Omole (NGR) (5) (WD) Oier Ibarreche (ESP) Jose Rodriguez (ECU) (7) 17 Yusuf Chothia (AUS) (5) Charlie Senior (AUS) (4) Chu-en Lai (TPE) (2) Tiago Muxanga (MOZ) 18 Wasim Abusal (PLE) Jugurtha Ait Bekka (ALG) (3) Chia Wei Kan (TPE) (8) 19 Richard Kovacs (HUN) Omar Elawady (EGY) (5) 20 Pemberton Lele (SOL) Shannan Davey (AUS) (1)

Olympic Rankings (W60kg,W66kg,W75kg) W60kg W66kg W75kg 1 Kellie Harrington (IRL) (3) Busenaz Surmeneli (TUR) (1) Tammara Thibeault (CAN) (3) 2 Beatriz Ferreira (BRA) (2) Imane Khelif (ALG) (5) Aoife O'Rourke (IRL) (2) 3 Angie Valdez (COL) (6) Yang Liu (CHN) (2) Qian Li (CHN) (1) 4 Yang Wenlu (CHN) (1) Nien-chin Chen (TPE) Cindy Ngamba (REF) 5 Won Ung-yong (PRK) (7) Aneta Rygielska (POL) Lovlina Borgohain (IND) (8) 6 Estelle Mossely (FRA) Barbara dos Santos (BRA) (3) Atheyna Bylon (PAN) (7) 7 Natalia Shadrina (SRB) (8) Grainne Walsh (IRL) Caitlin Parker (AUS) (5) 8 Oh Yeonji (KOR) Rosie Eccles (GBR) Sunniva Hofstad (NOR) 9 Donjeta Sadiku (KOS) Morelle McCane (USA) (6) Khadija El Mardi (MAR) (4) 10 Wu Shih-yi (TPE) Janjaem Suwannepheng (THA) (8) Davina Michel (FRA) (6) 11 Chelsey Heijnen (NED) Alcinda dos Santos (MOZ) Valentina Khalzova (KAZ) 12 Jajaira Gonzalez (USA) Oshin Derieuw (BEL) (7) Elzbieta Wojcik (POL) 13 Alessia Mesiano (ITA) Jessica Triebelova (SVK) Chantelle Reid (GBR) 14 Agnes Alexiusson (SWE) Angela Carini (ITA) Baison Manikon (THA) 15 Gizem Ozer (TUR) Maria Moronta (DOM) Hergie Bacyadan (PHI) 16 Thananya Somnuek (THA) Navbakhor Khamidova (UZB) Citlalli Ortiz (MEX) 17 Cynthia Ogunsemilore (NGR) (4) Brigitte Mbabi (DRC) 18 Thi Linh Ha (VIE) Luca Hamori (HUN) 19 Maria Palacios (ECU) Ivanusa Gomes Moreira (CPV) 20 Tyla McDonald (AUS) (5) Marissa Williamson (AUS) (4) 21 Hadjila Khelif (ALG) 22 Feofaaki Epenisa (TGA)

Right, it is the moment that nobody has been waiting for, (well I guess I have been waiting for it as this took a while). Anyway, so here are my rankings of the Olympic boxers. These rankings probably won't prove to be that accurate but hopefully they are at least reasonably predictive (ie most higher ranked beat lower ranked boxers head to head) and are somewhat useful. I did try to leave personal preferences for certain styles or whatever aside so hopefully nothing proves too egregious. Seeds are in brackets. I should emphasize the seeding draw was randomized, there is no difference in quality between a given 1st seed or a given 4th seed. Additionally in some of these weighclasses the biggest effect seeding will have is on the probablitly of getting a bye. The draw obviously play a huge factor into who medals or not and to be honest this ranking is probably most useful in analysing how difficult a particular bracket is. I have added an updated Excel file to the title page of this thread and will link it here as well but will of course also post all of the rankings below. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IXUV9JedDIIPekE16V3nBAbvkYHvW0Fl/edit?usp=drive_link&ouid=113545580127855067750&rtpof=true&sd=true I will try and predict the medallists after the draw happens and will add some analysis there. I'm too tired to add analysis to these but happy to discuss any rankings people disagree with or whatever. Olympic Rankings (W50,W54,W57) W50kg W54kg W57kg 1 Buse naz Cakiroglu (TUR) (3) Pang Chol-mi (PRK) (4) Lin Yu-ting (TPE) (1) 2 Nikhat Zareen (IND) Stanimira Petrova (BUL) (1) Nesthy Petecio (PHI) 3 Wu Yu (CHN) (1) Sara Cirkovic (SRB) Irma Testa (ITA) 4 Sabina Bobokulova (UZB) Charley Sian Taylor Davison (GBR) Svetlana Staneva (BUL) (8) 5 Chuthamat Raksat (THA) (8) Yuan Chang (CHN) (8) Karina Ibragimova (KAZ) (7) 6 Giordana Sorrentino (ITA) Hsiao Wen Huang (TPE) Jucielen Romeu (BRA) (4) 7 Daina Moorehouse (IRL) Lacramioara Perijoc (ROU) (6) Amina Zidani (FRA) (3) 8 Ingirt Valencia Victoria (COL) Hatice Akbas (TUR) Michaela Walsh (IRL) 9 Wassila Lkhadiri (FRA) (7) Jutamas Jitpong (THA) Esra Yildiz (TUR) 10 Aira Villegas (PHI) Im Aeji (KOR) Xu Zichun (CHN) 11 Caroline de Almeida (BRA) (4) Preeti (IND) Jaismine (IND) 12 Monique Suraci (AUS) (5) Jennifer Lehane (IRL) Omailyn Alcala (VEN) 13 Yesugen Oyunsetseg (MGL) Yeni Arias (COL) (2) Mijgona Samadova (TJK) 14 Nazym Kyzaibay (KAZ) Sirine Charaabi (ITA) Julia Szeremeta (POL) 15 Laura Fuertes (ESP) Enkhjargal Mungunsetseg (MGL) Alyssa Mendoza (USA) 16 Roumaysa Boualam (ALG) (2) Nigina Uktamova (UZB) Ashleyann Lozada (PUR) 17 Maxi Kloetzer (GER) Thi Kim Anh Vo (VIE) Valeria Arboleda (COL) (6) 18 Pihla Kaivo Oja (FIN) Bojana Gojkovic (MNE) Khouloud Hlimi (TUN) (5) 19 Yasmine Mouttaki (MAR) Tatiana de Jesus (BRA) (7) Sitora Turdibekova (UZB) 20 Jennifer Lozano (USA) (6) Tiana Echegaray (AUS) (3) Marcelat Sakobi (DRC) 21 Fatima Herrera (MEX) Widad Bertal (MAR) (5) Marine Camara (MLI) 22 Margret Tembo (ZAM) Yomna Ayyad (EGY) Tina Rahimi (AUS) (2)

Man, don't you dare call me a casual. You can disagree with my opinions but don't do that. Don't do that. I spend my time on this forum talking about things like obscure boxing results and you doubt that I watch Tour of Slovakia, Settimana Coppi e Bartali or even Tour de l'Avenir? Archie Ryan is one of if not my favourite cyclists in the world right now, he's amazing. Darren Rafferty is amazing too and yeah given the 2 year age gap maybe Archie is slightly ahead of Darren right now but there really isn't that much in it. Archie has just gotten more opportunities to ride for himself this season while Darren has mostly been stuck on domestique duty. Hopefully EF take both to the Vuelta but if there is only room for one I would be interested to see which they take. Darren Rafferty has arguably been trusted a bit more by EF this season hacing ridden 3 world tour stage races (Catalunya, Romandie and Dauphine) plus Eschborn Frankfurt and De Brabantse Pijl (I know technically not a world tour race.). Ryan has ridden 2 world tour stage races and one of them was tour down under which doesn't really count, Basque country was the other and he did of course get picked for La Fleche Wallonne and Liege Bastogen Liege. But the one day races are the key point here, Eschborn Frankfurt and De Brabantse Pijl look a lot more like the Olympics route than Fleche or Liege. The climbs just aren't long or steep enough for Archie and he is too light to contribute on the flat. All of the logic of why you might not pick Eddie also applies to Archie, even though I might agree that Archie might be a better option than Eddie given his one day results this season, depends on how close Eddie is to his best. Darren Rafferty just offers something different.

That's a good shout. Has to be Armitage though if that is the case. Like they settled for 2 of the golfers and Ben Healy was never on the cards to be available to do some posing. (unless it is the get Sammy an Olympics appearance pick because he of course would also be unavailable.) Look I love Archie Ryan but like he is just a younger and slightly punchier version of Eddie Dunbar, Biggest difference is he is not as crash prone as Eddie still crash prone though and does come with a chronic knee injury that could end his career prematurely attached. I would be delighted if we picked Archie but I just don't see the case for him over Eddie. He is just too similar strengths wise. (Just on most recent results better form but I assume this was decided a while ago.) Darren Rafferty is the 'most likely to be actually useful to Ben Healy when the race kicks off properly' pick. Better one day racer and not as much of a pure climber. After Ben he is the one the route suits the most. (Well I suppose just based off the route that title is probably actually Rory Townsend's, it would just need to be a 1.2 race.) I agree it is probably Eddie but everything else is decided so why not speculate wildly on the last remaining selection decision.

There is nothing quite like the joy of a completely unexpected last minute quota. You spend so much time analysing whether a given athlete will or won't make it and then just out of nowhere a quota you didn't even know was on the cards. Qualifying a full squad in the canoe slalom has to be strangest story of this qualification cycle for us. Especially in the context of most of our comparable sports size wise like mondern pentathlon, triathlon, judo have struggled this olympic cycle. What do we think the delay is with the road cycling announcement, we're basically the only ones left in the field yet to announce our team. Megan Armitage did just have covid so maybe that is what it is although I had wondered given Lara Gillespie and Alice Sharpe were selected for the madison and that we rejected a tt spot that they could be indications that Mia Griffin would get the nod for the road race but the race is just about hilly enough to justify picking Armitage. Obviously Lara Gillespie is our best rider but she can't do everything. Also who the we think the second men's rider is. Eddie wasn't exactly in great form at tour of austria I guess he should be in better form in a few weeks with the vuelta on the horizon. Sammy well at least he got himself a top 5 and his leadout has been hopeless even if he himself hasn't had the legs either. Darren Rafferty hasn't raced since nationals. Is there a case for Ryan Mullen if all we are realistically asking our second rider to do is help control the early breakaway for 200km. The only other thing any of them in their current form could realistically do to assist Ben Healy is get in the early break but how much value is there in that given that the point of getting in the break when you have a contender is so you don't have to chase but we only have two riders so if one of them is in the break there is no one there to chase with anyway. Anyway hopefully Ben gets his stage win this week, he deserves one but either way he absolutely has the legs to contend at the Olympics.

Ah fair enough. Presumably its a maximising the number of athletes they could take thing then. Surely it is the same as the Europeans squad though not last year's worlds cause like you changed your men's double and your lightweight women's double since last year and that is what is entered here. Then again you must have made some changes though as your quads are now different to both Europeans and last years worlds so it can't just be the exact same squad. I'll believe you that your sweep squad will actually double up and not to trust the entries in the fours/pairs but your sculling squad has to pretty much be as entered with the probable exception of Simona Radis. Then again it is not typically Olympic and double world champions but world champion crews getting broken up the following year does happen and they did lose at Europeans. Ireland's lightweight double in 2019 is what immediately springs to mind. GB men's/ women's fours last year I guess but I know bigger boats are different. Also a slightly different situation but the French Olympic and 2022 world championship double have barely raced together this Olympic cycle. Split themselves into singles for most of 2022 and then Matheiu Androdias didn't race last year. It may not have happened here but there is precedence for selections like this. Could you post it here if they have/ do announce a different squad? Couple of other things I noticed on review, Norway selected Kjetil Borch in the double after he failed to qualify the single and China left old Zhang Liang out of their double which is curious.

[hide] *"Double-the-points" distributed as follow: Each user will have 3 during the Knockout stage. Each user will have to mark their matches with "Double-the-points" with an "*". Knockout Stage June 29th - July 14th, 2024 Final Date & Time (GMT +2) Nation 1 T1 T2 Nation 2 July 14th 2024, h. 21:00 Spain 2 1 England [/hide]

[hide] *"Double-the-points" distributed as follow: Each user will have 3 during the Knockout stage. Each user will have to mark their matches with "Double-the-points" with an "*". Knockout Stage July 04th - July 14th, 2024 Third-Place Match Date & Time (GMT -4) Nation 1 T1 T2 Nation 2 July 13th 2024, h. 20:00 Canada 0 2 Uruguay Final Date & Time (GMT -4) Nation 1 T1 T2 Nation 2 July 14th 2024, h. 20:00 Argentina 1 0 Colombia [/hide]

https://worldrowing.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Paris-2024-Olympic-Regatta-entry-list.pdf Entries have been released. Ukraine apparently rejected their W1x quota from the European qualification regatta which got Nina Kostanjsek in and an extra universality quota was added in the M1x and allocated to . Otherwise as expected except for Romania who have made a whole bunch of changes to their Europeans squad which itself was significantly changed from last year. The big headline is that they broke up the Olympic and back to back world champion women's double!!!! with Andrada-Maria Morosanu replacing Simona Radis who is still selected in the women's eight. They also aren't doubling up anyone with their four and pairs typically having doubled up in their eights over the last couple of years but not so for the Olympics. Seemingly prioritising their eights over definitely their respective fours. The priorities with regards to their pairs are a bit more ambigous with Nicu Chelaru and Denisa Tilvescu moving from their eights to their pairs joining Florin Arteni and Ioana Vrinceanu with Florin Lehaci and Roxana Anghel moving the other way to their eights. Tilvescu and Vrinceanu were together in the pair in 2022 and came 4th so should still be medal favourites in the womens pair but harder to know with the men's pair.

[hide] *"Double-the-points" distributed as follow: Each user will have 3 during the Knockout stage. Each user will have to mark their matches with "Double-the-points" with an "*". Knockout Stage July 04th - July 14th, 2024 4 Nations, the Winners of each Semifinal will qualify for the Final. The Losers of each Semifinal will play the Third-Place Match. Semifinals Date & Time (GMT -4) Nation 1 T1 T2 Nation 2 July 9th 2024, h. 20:00 Argentina 2* 0 Canada July 10th 2024, h. 20:00 Uruguay 1 0 Colombia [/hide]

[hide] *"Double-the-points" distributed as follow: Each user will have 3 during the Knockout stage. Each user will have to mark their matches with "Double-the-points" with an "*". Knockout Stage June 29th - July 14th, 2024 4 Nations, the Winners of each Semifinal will qualify for the Final. Semifinals Date & Time (GMT +2) Nation 1 T1 T2 Nation 2 July 9th 2024, h. 21:00 Spain 2 0 France July 10th 2024, h. 21:00 Netherlands 1 1 England [/hide]

Huh??? So there were 248 quotas originally in boxing. IOC then allocated two refugee quotas which in theory don't count towards the 248. So when they announced Rady Gramane had been allocated a universality quota that originally didn't exist my assumption had been that because Cindy Ngamba was effectively occupying two quotas simultaneously ie. a refugee quota and an actual quota, there was a spare quota which they seeemingly had allocated as a universality quota. Seems like they may have changed their mind on that but this has nothing to do with Cindy Ngamba's abilities just the number of quotas they have allocated.

I wouldn't be so sure about that. Pretty sure they added a universality quota when Cindy Ngamba qualified directly and the other refugee athlete Omid Ahmadisafa is not included in this document either so it looks like despite calling it a final quota allocation they haven't added the refugee quotas yet. It's a curious one but Rady Gramane 75kg should still be in.

The swimming announcement just doesn't make any sense. We have selected 7 relay only swimmers which there are a couple of ways we could have done but none of them really make sense. (The ways I can think of are select Shane Ryan with his 50Free OQT but don't let him race that event or not select Conor Ferguson as a relay only athlete and trust that he would then get allocated a spot based on his OCT. Relay only swimmers were selected before OCT allocations so Dodge's explanation of Ferguson racing individually as an explanation for why we have 7 relay only swimmers listed only works if we didn't initially select him as a relay only swimmer but that doesn't fit with the announcement.) Why is Conor Ferguson not listed as racing the 100 back despite getting an OCT invite? (Most likely explanation here is the announcement was written before the reallocation happened and Swim Ireland just didn't change it.) Why did we make the announcement yesterday when secondary OCT reallocations are still ongoing and theoretically John Shortt, Shane Ryan could still get reallocations. (What happens with Shane Ryan then?, Would he then get to race the 50 free, can you reaccept a quota you already rejected or possibly as I said above technically might have accepted if only to get an extra relay swimmer) I'm so confused. Just if I was Erin Riordan I'd be a bit nervous that Swim Ireland just fucked this up and we don't actually have a spot for her which is the worst possible outcome here. The best and funniest would be having to do a secondary team announcement in both swimming and diving if John Shortt sneeks in.

[hide] *"Double-the-points" distributed as follow: Each user will have 3 during the Knockout stage. Each user will have to mark their matches with "Double-the-points" with an "*". Knockout Stage June 29th - July 14th, 2024 8 Nations, the Winners of each Quarterfinal will qualify for the Semifinals. Quarterfinals Date & Time (GMT +2) Nation 1 T1 T2 Nation 2 July 5th 2024, h. 18:00 Spain 2 1 Germany July 5th 2024, h. 21:00 Portugal 0 2 France July 6th 2024, h. 18:00 England 1 1 Switzerland July 6th 2024, h. 21:00 Netherlands 2* 0 Turkey [/hide]

[hide] *"Double-the-points" distributed as follow: Each user will have 3 during the Knockout stage. Each user will have to mark their matches with "Double-the-points" with an "*". Knockout Stage July 04th - July 14th, 2024 8 Nations, the Winners of each Quarterfinal will qualify for the Semifinals. Quarterfinals Date & Time (GMT -5) Nation 1 T1 T2 Nation 2 July 4th 2024, h. 20:00, GMT -5 Argentina 2* 0 Ecuador July 5th 2024, h. 20:00, GMT -5 Venezuela 1 0 Canada July 6th 2024, h. 15:00, GMT -7 Colombia 2* 1 Panama July 6th 2024, h. 18:00, GMT -7 Uruguay 1 1 Brazil [/hide]

Ye, Wyatt Sanford got a good draw with at least on paper Miguel Ramirez being an easier draw than Harry Garside , Bunjong Sinsiri or Lasha Guruli although the easiest possible draw was the 12.5% chance of getting Jugurtha Ait Bekka . Then again there is a lot of quality left amongst the unseeded boxers so I wouldn't be plotting Sanford's path to the final just yet. Tammara Thibeault got an okay draw. Davina Michel is fine apart from as you mentioned her being at home. Aoife O'Rourke also has a comfortable win against Atheyna Bylon from 2022 and has also beaten Qian Li and Lovlina Borgohain at Strandja this year so on paper could be the toughest potential matchup for Thibeault although that was definitely a matchup I was hoping we wouldn't see until the final and could prove the difference between a silver and a bronze for O'Rourke although I would be more than satisfied with any medal of course. Cindy Ngamba is lurking somewhere in the draw as well. This gives me a good excuse to talk about the other Irish boxers as well. Kellie Harrington got as tough a bracket as possible with a potential quarter final against world silver medallist Angie Valdes followed by a potential rematch of the Tokyo Olympic final against world champion Beatriz Ferreira . Obviously Kellie won in Tokyo but will need to back in that kind of form to get back to an Olympic final. I think she will be though. Jack Marley got a better initial draw avoiding potential quarter final matchups with Aziz Abbes Mouhiidine or Julio Cesar la Cruz being seeded in the same bracket as Davlat Boltaev although it would be somewhat of a surprise if they both won their first fight given the quality of the unseeded boxers is roughly equivalent to the seeded ones at heavyweight.