Ogreman

Don't have time or probably the knowledge to do an extensive preview on this but I am planning to for the other boxing qualification events so might as well try and predict the qualifiers here if nothing else. Mens 51kg- Patrick Chinyemba (Mortaji ) Mens 57kg- Soulaimaine Samghouli (Sigauque ) Mens 63.5kg- Jugurtha Ait Bekka (Commey ,Richarno Colin , Nadir ) Mens 71kg- Steve Kulenguluka Mbiya (Clair , Muxanga , Zimba , Rabii ) Mens 80kg- Peter Pita Kabeji (Assaghir , Ngammissengue , Orabi Abdelgawwad ) Mens 92kg- Adam Olaore (Kebe , Houmri ) Mens 92+kg- Serge Mvogo Amougou Zacharie (Hafez ) Womens 50kg- Roumaysa Boualam , Yasmie Mouttaki (Ngoune ) Womens 54kg- Sara Haghigat Joo , Fatma Abdelkader Hedjala (Bertal ) Womens 57kg- Matshu Marcelot Sakobi , Phiwokule Mnguni (Kenosi , Khouloud ) Womens 60kg- Hadjila Khelif , Felistars Nkandu (Amine ) Womens 66kg- Imane Khelif (If she is eligible), Alcinda Dos Santos (Brigitte , Gomes Moreira , Bel Ahbib ). Highest quality women's event here by a mile. Womens 75kg- Rady Gramane (El Mardi , Mbata ) Apologies for any misspelled/ misordered names.

This starts tomorrow and yet can anyone find a draw sheet anywhere?

I wouldn't rule out the womens four. You never know if conditions get a bit easier or something. While I would be hopeful of a spot at FOQR if they miss out. I certainly wouldn't be calling it this early. Also wouldn't rule France out tomorrow in the lightweight double. B finals can get weird. What you have outlined are the most likely outcomes but I just wouldn't be so sure we actually see them.

So my hit rate on finalists was 63/84 which is 75%. Of the 72 boats that have secured qualification at this point 11 weren't ranked in a qualifying position although positively no nation had multiple boats fall into this category which there wasn't any fundamental flaws with my rankings. 61/72 (84.7%) in terms of boats qualified at this point is probably a little dissapointing given that the last few qualifying spots are likely to be more volatile. There are gauranteed to be at least 8 more boats that werent ranked in a qualifying position that will qualify. Therefore the absolute best case scenario for my rankings would be a hit rate of 95/114 (83.3%). My target was 80% so I will probably need to get very lucky to hit that.

Yes, They are under the photos and videos tab on the world rowing championships page. Tricky to navigate but they are all there.

[hide] Group Stage September 8th - October 8th, 2023 20 Nations, The 1st and 2nd-Placed Nations from each Group will qualify Quarterfinals Group A Date & Time (GMT +2) Nation 1 T1 T2 Nation 2 September 8th, h. 21:15 France 10 New Zealand September 9th, h. 13:00 Italy 35 Namibia September 14th, h. 21:00 France 42 Uruguay September 15th, h. 21:00 New Zealand 70 Namibia September 20th, h. 17:45 Italy 8 Uruguay September 21st, h. 21:00 France 64 Namibia September 27th, h. 17:45 Uruguay 22 Namibia September 29th, h. 21:00 New Zealand 7 Italy October 5th, h. 21:00 New Zealand 45 Uruguay October 6th, h. 21:00 France 10 Italy Group B Date & Time (GMT +2) Nation 1 T1 T2 Nation 2 September 9th, h. 15:30 Ireland 65 Romania September 10th, h. 17:45 South Africa 7 Scotland September 16th, h. 21:00 Ireland 35 Tonga September 17th, h. 17:00 South Africa 65 Romania September 23rd, h. 21:00 South Africa 3 Ireland September 24th, h. 17:45 Scotland 28 Tonga September 30th, h. 21:00 Scotland 58 Romania October 1st, h. 21:00 South Africa 32 Tonga October 7th, h. 21:00 Ireland 10 Scotland October 8th, h. 17:45 Tonga 25 Romania Group C Date & Time (GMT +2) Nation 1 T1 T2 Nation 2 September 9th, h. 18:00 Australia 12 Georgia September 10th, h. 21:00 Wales 3 Fiji September 16th, h. 17:45 Wales 39 Portugal September 17th, h. 17:45 Australia 5 Fiji September 23rd, h. 14:00 Georgia 15 Portugal September 24th, h. 21:00 Wales 7 Australia September 30th, h. 17:45 Fiji 3 Georgia October 1st, h. 17:45 Australia 42 Portugal October 7th, h. 15:00 Wales 5 Georgia October 8th, h. 21:00 Fiji 24 Portugal Group D Date & Time (GMT +2) Nation 1 T1 T2 Nation 2 September 9th, h. 21:00 England 9 Argentina September 10th, h. 13:00 Japan 15 Chile September 16th, h. 15:00 Samoa 27 Chile September 17th, h. 21:00 England 5 Japan September 22nd, h. 17:45 Argentina 6 Samoa September 23rd, h. 17:45 England 33 Chile September 28th, h. 21:00 Japan 2 Samoa September 30th, h. 15:00 Argentina 38 Chile October 7th, h. 17:45 England 2 Samoa October 8th, h. 13:00 Japan 3 Argentina Top 3 Place 1st Place 2nd Place 3rd Place Nation Ireland France Argentina [/hide]

Bro I linked the qualifying document for a reason. I know that is what I understood the rule but it explicitly says this isn't the case.

[hide] Knockout Stage September 5th - September 10th, 2023 4 Nations, The Winning Nations from each Semifinal will qualify for the Final. The Losers of each Semifinal will play the Third-Place Match. Semifinals Date & Time (GMT +8) Nation 1 T1 T2 Nation 2 September 8th 2023, h. 16:45 Serbia 5 Canada September 8th 2023, h. 20:40 United States 8 Germany [/hide]

It is overall. No gender related rules at all.

I thought the rule was that 1. if you want to qualify two boats at a continental qualifier they had to both win their respective event and you can't have any previous boats qualified but according to the current version of the qualifying document neither of those are now the case. https://stillmed.olympics.com/media/Documents/Olympic-Games/Paris-2024/Paris2024-QS-Rowing.pdf?_ga=2.162527548.1298230565.1694115107-1188876414.1686749288 This seems to suggest that if you don't have any boats already qualified you can qualify two as long as their within the quota and if you have one boat already qualified you can qualify more than one extra boat if multiple boats win. Although as I say this was not my understanding of the rules.

Tentatively Canada and New Zealand. Look it is a very close semifinal where five different boat could all conceivably win it. France might miss out. Ireland might miss out. The US and their new combination could easily miss out. Technically the US was the slowest in the heats even if they did win theirs. Lets see what happens.

I realised, I edited my post it just didn't seem edit properly. Anyway as my post now says. There are no restrictions on how many boats you can qualify at the Final Qualifying regatta. Russia qualified 4/5 at the last one. P.S What do you mean I underestimated the pride of Italian rowing. You were even more pessimistic about their chances than I was.

The French LW2X have way more than a close to zero chance. Finishing third in their heat was surprising but I'm still picking them to make the final and if they don't I would probably pick them to win the B final. They are still likely qualifiers. The M4- should qualify. Not a gaurantee but they are likely qualifiers here. On paper they are significantly better than the Italian M4-. There are no restrictions on how many boats you can qualify at the Final Olympic qualifying regatta. Only the continental ones

Its complicated. If you dont have any boats already qualified you can qualify 2 boats gender doesnt matter. I thought I understood the rules for these fully but I just checked the qualifying document and it (now) says something completely different to what I thought. Anyway the above statement is true.

So 122/144 (84.7%) of semifinalists I had ranked in the top 12. (Obviously not counting the eights here). Only two boats not in the top 16 made the semis and one was the AIN (Belarus) boat which obviously had zero form to go off. Accounting for a few errors on my part and quarterfinal/repechage draws meaning in some cases 4 or 5 boats I had picked were competing for the same spots in the semis I think this estimation has gone pretty well. Obviously we will see how many actual qualifiers it gets right and medals well might be less accurate so not sure how useful it would be as say an Olympic predictor. It no longer looks quite as clean but at least nine of the semifinalists were right in every boat class so we should be on for an 80+% hit rate on correct Olympic qualifiers. It was a bad day for Greece and Belgium who had multiple projected qualifiers miss out on the semis. Italy are the big winners so far.

Yep that race is going to singlehandedly ruin my so far pretty clean looking spreadsheet.

France men's lightweight double is gone. First big shock of the championships

I have said seven before I'll stick with it even if the women's four is very close at this point. I'm pretty confident in the women's lightweight double even if it will be close. The semi final is against switzerland, Canada, USA, New Zealand and France. Its annoying to get France who ended up in the rep but still it could be worse. It is a bit of a everyone could beat anyone else semi-final apart from Switzerland. The womens four are up against Canada, Denmark, USA, GB and China. Honestly that is a pretty good draw. We are unlikely to beat USA and GB but Canada, Denmark and China are all beatable. Only makes it more dissapointing if we miss out though. Our heat time was pretty slow but I don't know if we should read into that too much. The other 5 boats should definetely qualify. Our three quarter finals tomorrow are all fairly straightforward draws and obviously the womens pair and womens double are basically home and dry in terms of Olympic qualification. The quad looked a lot better today than yesterday. This boat has potential but it is tricky to row and just throwing four athletes albeit good ones together in a boat was unlikely to yield immediate results. I also do wonder if we have the coaches to produce a good quad. Quads are more about technique more so than any other boat and good clean technique hasnt exactly been what our previous succesful boats have been built on. Plus I dont trust Fran keane and the men's heavyweight coaches yet. Finding a good double and pair this year is encouraging but this is two years in a row now where the mens squad has on the whole underperformed compared to its talent level. I suspect what will happen is that despite one being a sculling boat and the other a sweep boat next year we will probably end up either focusing on the four or the quad next year. Could easily see John Kearney/Jack Dorney moving into the quad or vice versa and trying Brian Colsh out with one oar.

This is proving fairly accurate. 11 of 12 semifinalists in the womens pair and all 12 in the women's lightweight double. Men's four was always going to be close between the boats in the b and c finals and in the men's quad well, I might have been a bit high on Ireland's brand new men's quad given how tricky a boat it is to row fast. They improved a lot from their heat in the rep so at least that is encouraging for next year for what is a very young boat.

[hide] Knockout Stage September 5th - September 10th, 2023 8 Nations, The Winning Nations from each Quarterfinal will qualify for the Semfinals. Quarterfinals Date & Time (GMT +8) Nation 1 T1 T2 Nation 2 September 5th 2023, h. 16:45 Lithuania 6 Serbia September 5th 2023, h. 20:40 Italy 8 United States September 6th 2023, h. 16:45 Germany 4 Latvia September 6th 2023, h. 20:30 Canada 5 Slovenia [/hide]

They are all on the previous page but both singles, the women's quad and I have them in the men's eight but I'm not sure about that one.

Olympic qualifiers according to my rankings Netherlands 10 Romania 10 Australia 9 Great Britain 9 USA 9 Ireland 7 Greece 5 New Zealand 5 China 4 France 4 Germany 4 Italy 4 Spain 4 Switzerland 4 Denmark 3 Lithuania 3 Belgium 2 Croatia 2 Poland 2 Serbia 2 Austria 1 AIN (BELARUS) 1 Bulgaria 1 Canada 1 Chile 1 Czechia 1 Estonia 1 Japan 1 Moldova 1 Norway 1 Ukraine 1 Uzbekistan 1 114 114 So I probably should have checked this before I posted the form/my mostly useless opinion guide. Anyway I apparently have managed to rank 9 American boats in qualifying positions which seems a bit on the optimistic side for the quality of that squad.(I managed to do that while being kinda harsh on their men's eight and women's quad). Maybe they are that good though and my perception is warped by their lack of medal contenders. (I just checked how many they would have qualified if last year had been the qualifiers and apparently they would have had 8 boats qualified which is way better than my memory of their one medal performance thought.) On the other end of the scale I have Canada only qualifying one boat. They have a couple of close calls though so they probably will get a second but even then that is still bad. Other than that it seems a fairly reasonable projection although given Germany's last couple of years four boats qualified would be pretty positive. If these pan out to be remotely accurate Ireland, Greece, Spain, Switzerland and honestly Serbia would be set for a very good champs. Not so much for Italy, the aforementioned Canada, China and Poland.

Ye I'm bullish on the Irish prospects. Its the mens four and the mens quad i dont expect to qualify. I do expect the womens four to qualify. Look there are loads of boats from lots of different countries and different boat classes that havent raced world cups or Europeans. I just ranked them based on whatever results they do have and the if boats have new combinations then just judge on whether the new combination is stronger or weaker than the previous. It gets pretty subjective when you start taking the under 23 boats or even junior boats into things but I tried to be fairly consistent with those and there is normally some reference point. This boat beat that boat which finished in such and such place at a world cup but now have a better athlete in the boat so should be faster. Like this is not an objective form guide, my opinion does definitely weigh in a lot. Anyway, the new Irish women's pair is our best two sweep athletes so ye I have them ranked higher than where our previous boats finished. So, I just looked back at the one I did last year and on that occasion I appear to have overestimated 4 Irish boats, underestimated 3 and hit 2 bang on so I don't think I have a bias towards Irish boats. If anything given my knowledge of them they might be the most accurately ranked of any country's.

M1X W1X M2- W2- M2X W2X LM2X LW2X M4- W4- M4X W4X M8+ W8+ 1 GER NED GBR< AUS NED ROU IRL GBR GBR AUS POL NED GBR ROU< 2 DEN AUS ROU> ROU CRO< LTU FRA ROU< AUS ROU NED CHN NED GBR 3 NZL NZL SWI NED ITA CHN< SWI FRA NZL GBR ITA GBR AUS CAN 4 JPN SWI ESP IRL IRL> USA ITA USA< NED USA GBR SWI ROU< AUS 5 GRE GER IRL GRE ROU FRA CZE IRL USA NED AUS UKR GER USA 6 BEL USA LTU GBR ESP IRL ESP GRE> FRA IRL ROU GER USA> CHN 7 CRO AUT SRB USA BEL AUS GRE NZL ROU CHN EST< ITA< CHN ITA 8 BUL UZB< AUS LTU CHN GRE< BEL CHN UKR DEN UKR< USA> ITA GER 9 NED> SRB< DEN< CHI NZL NED NZL ITA SWI< NZL IRL CAN CAN 10 LTU CHN> USA DEN MDA NOR UKR CAN CHN< ESP GER AUS AUT 11 CAN BUL AIN (B) ESP USA POL MEX> POL GER> POL NOR FRA 12 AIN (R) ESP CRO< CZE> FRA GER NOR SWI POL GER SWI ROU 13 SRB LTU NZL CRO AUS GBR POL AUS RSA> CAN LTU CZE 14 HUN ITA< ITA GER NOR< ITA CHN AUT IRL> MEX CHN 15 ITA> AIN (B)< RSA POL GER NZL GER GER ITA USA 16 NOR CZE CAN ITA GBR CZE POR ESP DEN CAN 17 URU< TUR NED NZL GRE CAN AUS DEN CZE 18 BRA ROU TUR CAN CZE SWI> USA TUN 19 ESP GBR> POL AIN (B) SRB RSA TUR> PER 20 AUS UKR FRA FRA POL> AUT EGY 21 USA AIN (R) CHN CHN UKR< EST 22 POR FRA GER PAR SWE< URU 23 AIN (B) JPN HUN LTU UZB> 24 CHN POL SLO BUL ISR 25 SLO NOR< CZE URU> EGY 26 TUN LAT< EGY RSA 27 TUR SLO CUB 28 MON PER EGY 29 ROU KUW PER 30 CYP BRN BRN 31 ISR TOG 32 AZE 33 SWE> 34 EGY 35 MEX> 36 ESA< 37 BER 38 FIN 39 PAR 40 ZIM 41 CIV< 42 IRQ 43 GEO 44 BAR 45 ANG 46 BEN 47 SUD 48 LIB I posted this on the rowing world champs page as well but I said I would post it here if I did it. Anyway, so I did the exercise of trying to rank every boat's form coming into these champs. I did this last year as well and well it wasn't particularly accurate in terms of trying to predict results but hopefully offers some perspective on where our boats might rank and should be useful in assessing how tricky heat draws are and stuff. > means I think a given boat will finish higher than where I have ranked them and < means I think it will actually finish lower than where it is ranked here.

Form rankings M1X W1X M2- W2- M2X W2X LM2X LW2X M4- W4- M4X W4X M8+ W8+ 1 GER NED GBR< AUS NED ROU IRL GBR GBR AUS POL NED GBR ROU< 2 DEN AUS ROU> ROU CRO< LTU FRA ROU< AUS ROU NED CHN NED GBR 3 NZL NZL SWI NED ITA CHN< SWI FRA NZL GBR ITA GBR AUS CAN 4 JPN SWI ESP IRL IRL> USA ITA USA< NED USA GBR SWI ROU< AUS 5 GRE GER IRL GRE ROU FRA CZE IRL USA NED AUS UKR GER USA 6 BEL USA LTU GBR ESP IRL ESP GRE> FRA IRL ROU GER USA> CHN 7 CRO AUT SRB USA BEL AUS GRE NZL ROU CHN EST< ITA< CHN ITA 8 BUL UZB< AUS LTU CHN GRE< BEL CHN UKR DEN UKR< USA> ITA GER 9 NED> SRB< DEN< CHI NZL NED NZL ITA SWI< NZL IRL CAN CAN 10 LTU CHN> USA DEN MDA NOR UKR CAN CHN< ESP GER AUS AUT 11 CAN BUL AIN (B) ESP USA POL MEX> POL GER> POL NOR FRA 12 AIN (R) ESP CRO< CZE> FRA GER NOR SWI POL GER SWI ROU 13 SRB LTU NZL CRO AUS GBR POL AUS RSA> CAN LTU CZE 14 HUN ITA< ITA GER NOR< ITA CHN AUT IRL> MEX CHN 15 ITA> AIN (B)< RSA POL GER NZL GER GER ITA USA 16 NOR CZE CAN ITA GBR CZE POR ESP DEN CAN 17 URU< TUR NED NZL GRE CAN AUS DEN CZE 18 BRA ROU TUR CAN CZE SWI> USA TUN 19 ESP GBR> POL AIN (B) SRB RSA TUR> PER 20 AUS UKR FRA FRA POL> AUT EGY 21 USA AIN (R) CHN CHN UKR< EST 22 POR FRA GER PAR SWE< URU 23 AIN (B) JPN HUN LTU UZB> 24 CHN POL SLO BUL ISR 25 SLO NOR< CZE URU> EGY 26 TUN LAT< EGY RSA 27 TUR SLO CUB 28 MON PER EGY 29 ROU KUW PER 30 CYP BRN BRN 31 ISR TOG 32 AZE 33 SWE> 34 EGY 35 MEX> 36 ESA< 37 BER 38 FIN 39 PAR 40 ZIM 41 CIV< 42 IRQ 43 GEO 44 BAR 45 ANG 46 BEN 47 SUD 48 LIB So I did this exercise of trying to rank every boat's form coming into these champs. I did this last year for myself and well it wasn't particularly accurate in terms of trying to predict results but hopefully offers some perspective on where boats might finish and expectations for number of Olympic qualifiers. > means I think a given boat will finish higher than where I have ranked them and < means I think it will actually finish lower than where it is ranked here. Anyone know why Japan withdrew all their boats except for their single scullers. I assume it is Asian games related but the likes of their W4- would have at least been competitive here