Ogreman

A bit of both I suppose. Look he did well during the qualfiers and he has moved up in my rankings accordingly, originally I didn't think he had much chance of qualifying although I did correctly pick him to come through the second world qualifier. He didn't have that tough a draw in the early rounds of any of the 3 qualifiers. There isn't much between him and Han Xuezhen or Victor Schelstraete and would give him a decent shot at beating either but they are both awkward tricky opponents who have the odd impressive win against other boxers in this draw and Bereznicki just isn't/doesn't. He is a decent counterpuncher but hasn't really shown any ability to threaten the top 10 or so boxers in the draw, Patrick Brown completely overpowered him at the 1st world qualifier, Jack Marley breezed past him at European under 22s 2 years ago. Davlat Boltaev is an interesting comparison as he has a similar style to Bereznicki but is just more precise and more difficult to hit. So to simplify he could easily be 12th rather than 14th but I wouldn't really expect much from him beyond that adn to answer your original quetion, this is quite a strong lineup although far from the toughest division but also I haven't been that convinced by Bereznicki. Well the really simple explanation for Sanford is he lost to Jesus Cova at panamerican championships just before panam games so he goes behind Jesus Cova and Cova is ranked 12th so he goes 13th. No but like Dodge hit the nail on the head in relation to mini tiers and both of these boxers fall into that category of being ranked at the back of a mini tier and I don't think Sanford is far behind Hasanov , Clancy or Cova. What I would say though is like I'm not sure Sanford's aggresive constantly coming forward style will prove as effective at the Olympics where everyone puts everything into every fight and it is much harder to win fights by just outworking your opponent. Look I would be interested to see how a rematch with Cova would go but I think his 2022 commonwealth games loss to Reece Lynch is a decent indication of how a fight with Hasanov or Clancy would go who are both comfortably better than Lynch. Then again as he is seeded and avoided the big names seeding wise he is comfortably the most likely of the 4 to medal and if he gets significant luck with the draw may not even need to beat someone I have ranked ahead of him to reach the podium.

Boxers Projected gold Projected silver Projected bronze Total Contenders (top 8) Outside chances (9-12) Uzbekistan 11 3 1 3 8 0 Turkey 8 2 0 0 3 3 Kazakhstan 10 1 3 0 6 3 Ireland 10 1 1 0 7 3 France 8 1 0 1 4 3 Italy 8 1 0 1 3 1 Chinese Taipei 6 1 0 1 3 1 North Korea 2 1 0 0 2 0 Ukraine 3 1 0 0 1 1 Canada 2 1 0 0 1 0 Brazil 10 0 2 1 6 2 USA 8 0 1 2 4 2 Bulgaria 5 0 1 2 4 0 India 6 0 1 0 4 2 Philippines 5 0 1 0 3 1 Algeria 5 0 1 0 1 0 Mexico 4 0 1 0 1 0 China 8 0 0 5 6 1 Cuba 5 0 0 2 5 0 Thailand 8 0 0 1 3 3 Great Britain and NI 6 0 0 1 3 2 Australia 12 0 0 1 3 1 Colombia 5 0 0 1 3 0 Congo 5 0 0 1 3 0 Serbia 3 0 0 1 2 1 Georgia 2 0 0 1 2 0 Refugee team 2 0 0 1 1 0 Denmark 1 0 0 1 1 0 Spain 6 0 0 0 2 2 Azerbaijan 5 0 0 0 1 3 Poland 5 0 0 0 1 1 Tajikistan 3 0 0 0 1 1 South Korea 2 0 0 0 1 1 Dominican Republic 3 0 0 0 1 0 Germany 2 0 0 0 1 0 Norway 2 0 0 0 1 0 Zambia 2 0 0 0 1 0 Croatia 1 0 0 0 1 0 Panama 1 0 0 0 1 0 Romania 1 0 0 0 1 0 Belgium 3 0 0 0 0 2 Jordan 3 0 0 0 0 2 Venezuela 2 0 0 0 0 2 Hungary 3 0 0 0 0 1 Morocco 3 0 0 0 0 1 Mozambique 2 0 0 0 0 1 Puerto Rico 2 0 0 0 0 1 Armenia 1 0 0 0 0 1 Kosovo 1 0 0 0 0 1 Kyrgyzstan 1 0 0 0 0 1 Netherlands 1 0 0 0 0 1 Ecuador 3 0 0 0 0 0 Egypt 3 0 0 0 0 0 Nigeria 2 0 0 0 0 0 Cape Verde 2 0 0 0 0 0 DR Congo 2 0 0 0 0 0 Mongolia 2 0 0 0 0 0 Sweden 2 0 0 0 0 0 Vietnam 2 0 0 0 0 0 Finland 1 0 0 0 0 0 Haiti 1 0 0 0 0 0 Japan 1 0 0 0 0 0 Montenegro 1 0 0 0 0 0 Palestine 1 0 0 0 0 0 Samoa 1 0 0 0 0 0 Slovakia 1 0 0 0 0 0 Solomon Islands 1 0 0 0 0 0 Tonga 1 0 0 0 0 0 Tunisia 1 0 0 0 0 0 Table of what the medal table would look like strictly based off my rankings. Does not take account of seeding so is already wrong. Uzbekistan as you would expect are massive favourites to top the medal table here but given how Tokyo went for them they will know how volatile boxing often is. Kazakhstan are probably slight favourites to at least win the second most total medals but after that it is anyone's game really (well not quite anyone but). GB with a small and not particularly strong squad and no Russia mean the medal table will look very different to last time. Of course the actually medal table or even my predicted medal table will look very different to this, the point of this table is to assess the quality of countries' contingents and not to accurately predict their medal prospects.

Olympic Rankings (M80kg,M92kg,M92+kg) M80kg M92kg M92+kg 1 Oleksandr Khyzniak (UKR) (3) Aziz Abbes Mouhiidine (ITA) (3) Bakhodir Jalolov (UZB) (4) 2 Nurbek Oralbay (KAZ) Keno Machado (BRA) (6) Kamshybek Kunkabayev (KAZ) (7) 3 Tuohetaebieke Tanglatihan (CHN) (1) Julio Cesar la Cruz (CUB) (4) Teremoana Jnr (AUS) (5) 4 Arlen Lopez (CUB) (2) Lazizbek Mullojonov (UZB) Joshua Edwards (USA) (1) 5 Turbaek Khabibullaev (UZB) Aybek Oralbay (KAZ) Nelvie Tiafack (GER) 6 Eumir Marcial (PHI) (7) Loren Alfosno Domniguez (AZE) Abner Texeira (BRA) (6) 7 Cristian Pinales (DOM) Enamanuel Reyes (ESP) Ayoub Ghafa Drissi El Aissaoui (ESP) 8 Gabrijel Veocic (CRO) (8) Georgii Kushitashvili (GEO) Delicious Orie (GBR) (2) 9 Wanderley Pereira (BRA) (6) Jack Marley (IRL) (7) Davit Chaloyan (ARM) 10 Weerapon Jongjoho (THA) Patrick Brown (GBR) Diego Lenzi (ITA) 11 Hussein Iashaish (JOR) Davlat Boltaev (TJK) (2) Mahammud Abdullayev (AZE) (8) 12 Pylyp Akilov (HUN) Victor Schelstraete (BEL) Djamili Aboudou Moindze (FRA) 13 Salvatore Cavallaro (ITA) Han Xuezhen (CHN) (8) Omar Shiha (NOR) 14 Murad Allahverdiyev (AZE) Mateusz Bereznicki (POL) Dmytro Lovchynskyi(UKR) 15 Callum Peters (AUS) (5) Ato Plodzicki Faoagali (SAM) (1) Gerlon Congo (ECU) 16 Kaan Aykutsun (TUR) Adam Olaore (NGR) (5) Mourad Kadi (ALG) (3) 17 Abdelrahman Oraby Abdelgawwad (EGY) (4) 18 Cedrick Belony Duliepre (HAI)

Olympic Rankings (M51kg,M57kg,M63.5kg,M71kg) M51kg M57kg M63.5kg M71kg 1 Hasanboy Dusmatov (UZB) (2) Abdumalik Khalokov (UZB) (1) Sofiane Oumiha (FRA) (4) Aslanbek Shymbergenov (KAZ) 2 Saken Bibossinov (KAZ) Jahmal Harvey (USA) (3) Ruslan Abdullaev (UZB) Marco Verde (MEX) (2) 3 Billal Bennama (FRA) (1) Luiz Oliveira (BRA) Bunjong Sinsiri (THA) (6) Asadkhuja Muydinkhujaev (UZB) 4 Roscoe Hill (USA) Javier Ibanez (BUL) (2) Lasha Guruli (GEO) (7) Nikolai Terteryan (DEN) (4) 5 Amit Panghal (IND) Carlo Paalam (PHI) Bahodur Usmonov (TJK) Sewon Okazawa (JAP) (3) 6 Alejandro Claro (CUB) Yilmar Gonzalez (COL) Erislandy Alvarez (CUB) Omari Jones (USA) 7 Thitisan Panmot (THA) (6) Jude Galllagher (IRL) Harry Garside (AUS) (5) Nishant Dev (IND) 8 Patrick Chinyemba (ZAM) (3) Saidel Horta (CUB) (6) Radoslav Rosenov (BUL) Aidan Walsh (IRL) 9 Samet Gumus (TUR) (7) Mahmud Sabyrkhan (KAZ) Mukhamedsabyr Bazarbay Uulu (KAZ) Zeyad Eashash (JOR) 10 Nijat Huseynov (AZE) Aider Abduraimov (UKR) Malik Hasanov (AZE) Vakhid Abbasov (SRB) (6) 11 Rafa Lozano Jr (ESP) Jose Quiles Brotons (ESP) (8) Dean Clancy (IRL) Tugrulhan Erdemir (TUR) (WD?) 12 Juanma Lopez (PUR) Munarbek Seitbek Uulu (KGZ) Jesu Cova (VEN) Lewis Richardson (GBR) 13 Junior Alcantara (DOM) (4) Vasile Ustoroi (BEL) Wyatt Sanford (CAN) (1) Damian Durkacz (POL) 14 David de Pina (CPV) Nebil Ibrahim (SWE) Miguel Martinez (MEX) (8) Rami Kiwan (BUL) 15 Michael de Trindade (BRA) (8) Shudai Harada (JPN) (7) Obada Al Kasbeh (JOR) Makan Traore (FRA) 16 Omid Ahmadisafa (REF) Dolapo Omole (NGR) (5) (WD) Oier Ibarreche (ESP) Jose Rodriguez (ECU) (7) 17 Yusuf Chothia (AUS) (5) Charlie Senior (AUS) (4) Chu-en Lai (TPE) (2) Tiago Muxanga (MOZ) 18 Wasim Abusal (PLE) Jugurtha Ait Bekka (ALG) (3) Chia Wei Kan (TPE) (8) 19 Richard Kovacs (HUN) Omar Elawady (EGY) (5) 20 Pemberton Lele (SOL) Shannan Davey (AUS) (1)

Olympic Rankings (W60kg,W66kg,W75kg) W60kg W66kg W75kg 1 Kellie Harrington (IRL) (3) Busenaz Surmeneli (TUR) (1) Tammara Thibeault (CAN) (3) 2 Beatriz Ferreira (BRA) (2) Imane Khelif (ALG) (5) Aoife O'Rourke (IRL) (2) 3 Angie Valdez (COL) (6) Yang Liu (CHN) (2) Qian Li (CHN) (1) 4 Yang Wenlu (CHN) (1) Nien-chin Chen (TPE) Cindy Ngamba (REF) 5 Won Ung-yong (PRK) (7) Aneta Rygielska (POL) Lovlina Borgohain (IND) (8) 6 Estelle Mossely (FRA) Barbara dos Santos (BRA) (3) Atheyna Bylon (PAN) (7) 7 Natalia Shadrina (SRB) (8) Grainne Walsh (IRL) Caitlin Parker (AUS) (5) 8 Oh Yeonji (KOR) Rosie Eccles (GBR) Sunniva Hofstad (NOR) 9 Donjeta Sadiku (KOS) Morelle McCane (USA) (6) Khadija El Mardi (MAR) (4) 10 Wu Shih-yi (TPE) Janjaem Suwannepheng (THA) (8) Davina Michel (FRA) (6) 11 Chelsey Heijnen (NED) Alcinda dos Santos (MOZ) Valentina Khalzova (KAZ) 12 Jajaira Gonzalez (USA) Oshin Derieuw (BEL) (7) Elzbieta Wojcik (POL) 13 Alessia Mesiano (ITA) Jessica Triebelova (SVK) Chantelle Reid (GBR) 14 Agnes Alexiusson (SWE) Angela Carini (ITA) Baison Manikon (THA) 15 Gizem Ozer (TUR) Maria Moronta (DOM) Hergie Bacyadan (PHI) 16 Thananya Somnuek (THA) Navbakhor Khamidova (UZB) Citlalli Ortiz (MEX) 17 Cynthia Ogunsemilore (NGR) (4) Brigitte Mbabi (DRC) 18 Thi Linh Ha (VIE) Luca Hamori (HUN) 19 Maria Palacios (ECU) Ivanusa Gomes Moreira (CPV) 20 Tyla McDonald (AUS) (5) Marissa Williamson (AUS) (4) 21 Hadjila Khelif (ALG) 22 Feofaaki Epenisa (TGA)

Right, it is the moment that nobody has been waiting for, (well I guess I have been waiting for it as this took a while). Anyway, so here are my rankings of the Olympic boxers. These rankings probably won't prove to be that accurate but hopefully they are at least reasonably predictive (ie most higher ranked beat lower ranked boxers head to head) and are somewhat useful. I did try to leave personal preferences for certain styles or whatever aside so hopefully nothing proves too egregious. Seeds are in brackets. I should emphasize the seeding draw was randomized, there is no difference in quality between a given 1st seed or a given 4th seed. Additionally in some of these weighclasses the biggest effect seeding will have is on the probablitly of getting a bye. The draw obviously play a huge factor into who medals or not and to be honest this ranking is probably most useful in analysing how difficult a particular bracket is. I have added an updated Excel file to the title page of this thread and will link it here as well but will of course also post all of the rankings below. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IXUV9JedDIIPekE16V3nBAbvkYHvW0Fl/edit?usp=drive_link&ouid=113545580127855067750&rtpof=true&sd=true I will try and predict the medallists after the draw happens and will add some analysis there. I'm too tired to add analysis to these but happy to discuss any rankings people disagree with or whatever. Olympic Rankings (W50,W54,W57) W50kg W54kg W57kg 1 Buse naz Cakiroglu (TUR) (3) Pang Chol-mi (PRK) (4) Lin Yu-ting (TPE) (1) 2 Nikhat Zareen (IND) Stanimira Petrova (BUL) (1) Nesthy Petecio (PHI) 3 Wu Yu (CHN) (1) Sara Cirkovic (SRB) Irma Testa (ITA) 4 Sabina Bobokulova (UZB) Charley Sian Taylor Davison (GBR) Svetlana Staneva (BUL) (8) 5 Chuthamat Raksat (THA) (8) Yuan Chang (CHN) (8) Karina Ibragimova (KAZ) (7) 6 Giordana Sorrentino (ITA) Hsiao Wen Huang (TPE) Jucielen Romeu (BRA) (4) 7 Daina Moorehouse (IRL) Lacramioara Perijoc (ROU) (6) Amina Zidani (FRA) (3) 8 Ingirt Valencia Victoria (COL) Hatice Akbas (TUR) Michaela Walsh (IRL) 9 Wassila Lkhadiri (FRA) (7) Jutamas Jitpong (THA) Esra Yildiz (TUR) 10 Aira Villegas (PHI) Im Aeji (KOR) Xu Zichun (CHN) 11 Caroline de Almeida (BRA) (4) Preeti (IND) Jaismine (IND) 12 Monique Suraci (AUS) (5) Jennifer Lehane (IRL) Omailyn Alcala (VEN) 13 Yesugen Oyunsetseg (MGL) Yeni Arias (COL) (2) Mijgona Samadova (TJK) 14 Nazym Kyzaibay (KAZ) Sirine Charaabi (ITA) Julia Szeremeta (POL) 15 Laura Fuertes (ESP) Enkhjargal Mungunsetseg (MGL) Alyssa Mendoza (USA) 16 Roumaysa Boualam (ALG) (2) Nigina Uktamova (UZB) Ashleyann Lozada (PUR) 17 Maxi Kloetzer (GER) Thi Kim Anh Vo (VIE) Valeria Arboleda (COL) (6) 18 Pihla Kaivo Oja (FIN) Bojana Gojkovic (MNE) Khouloud Hlimi (TUN) (5) 19 Yasmine Mouttaki (MAR) Tatiana de Jesus (BRA) (7) Sitora Turdibekova (UZB) 20 Jennifer Lozano (USA) (6) Tiana Echegaray (AUS) (3) Marcelat Sakobi (DRC) 21 Fatima Herrera (MEX) Widad Bertal (MAR) (5) Marine Camara (MLI) 22 Margret Tembo (ZAM) Yomna Ayyad (EGY) Tina Rahimi (AUS) (2)

Man, don't you dare call me a casual. You can disagree with my opinions but don't do that. Don't do that. I spend my time on this forum talking about things like obscure boxing results and you doubt that I watch Tour of Slovakia, Settimana Coppi e Bartali or even Tour de l'Avenir? Archie Ryan is one of if not my favourite cyclists in the world right now, he's amazing. Darren Rafferty is amazing too and yeah given the 2 year age gap maybe Archie is slightly ahead of Darren right now but there really isn't that much in it. Archie has just gotten more opportunities to ride for himself this season while Darren has mostly been stuck on domestique duty. Hopefully EF take both to the Vuelta but if there is only room for one I would be interested to see which they take. Darren Rafferty has arguably been trusted a bit more by EF this season hacing ridden 3 world tour stage races (Catalunya, Romandie and Dauphine) plus Eschborn Frankfurt and De Brabantse Pijl (I know technically not a world tour race.). Ryan has ridden 2 world tour stage races and one of them was tour down under which doesn't really count, Basque country was the other and he did of course get picked for La Fleche Wallonne and Liege Bastogen Liege. But the one day races are the key point here, Eschborn Frankfurt and De Brabantse Pijl look a lot more like the Olympics route than Fleche or Liege. The climbs just aren't long or steep enough for Archie and he is too light to contribute on the flat. All of the logic of why you might not pick Eddie also applies to Archie, even though I might agree that Archie might be a better option than Eddie given his one day results this season, depends on how close Eddie is to his best. Darren Rafferty just offers something different.

That's a good shout. Has to be Armitage though if that is the case. Like they settled for 2 of the golfers and Ben Healy was never on the cards to be available to do some posing. (unless it is the get Sammy an Olympics appearance pick because he of course would also be unavailable.) Look I love Archie Ryan but like he is just a younger and slightly punchier version of Eddie Dunbar, Biggest difference is he is not as crash prone as Eddie still crash prone though and does come with a chronic knee injury that could end his career prematurely attached. I would be delighted if we picked Archie but I just don't see the case for him over Eddie. He is just too similar strengths wise. (Just on most recent results better form but I assume this was decided a while ago.) Darren Rafferty is the 'most likely to be actually useful to Ben Healy when the race kicks off properly' pick. Better one day racer and not as much of a pure climber. After Ben he is the one the route suits the most. (Well I suppose just based off the route that title is probably actually Rory Townsend's, it would just need to be a 1.2 race.) I agree it is probably Eddie but everything else is decided so why not speculate wildly on the last remaining selection decision.

There is nothing quite like the joy of a completely unexpected last minute quota. You spend so much time analysing whether a given athlete will or won't make it and then just out of nowhere a quota you didn't even know was on the cards. Qualifying a full squad in the canoe slalom has to be strangest story of this qualification cycle for us. Especially in the context of most of our comparable sports size wise like mondern pentathlon, triathlon, judo have struggled this olympic cycle. What do we think the delay is with the road cycling announcement, we're basically the only ones left in the field yet to announce our team. Megan Armitage did just have covid so maybe that is what it is although I had wondered given Lara Gillespie and Alice Sharpe were selected for the madison and that we rejected a tt spot that they could be indications that Mia Griffin would get the nod for the road race but the race is just about hilly enough to justify picking Armitage. Obviously Lara Gillespie is our best rider but she can't do everything. Also who the we think the second men's rider is. Eddie wasn't exactly in great form at tour of austria I guess he should be in better form in a few weeks with the vuelta on the horizon. Sammy well at least he got himself a top 5 and his leadout has been hopeless even if he himself hasn't had the legs either. Darren Rafferty hasn't raced since nationals. Is there a case for Ryan Mullen if all we are realistically asking our second rider to do is help control the early breakaway for 200km. The only other thing any of them in their current form could realistically do to assist Ben Healy is get in the early break but how much value is there in that given that the point of getting in the break when you have a contender is so you don't have to chase but we only have two riders so if one of them is in the break there is no one there to chase with anyway. Anyway hopefully Ben gets his stage win this week, he deserves one but either way he absolutely has the legs to contend at the Olympics.

Ah fair enough. Presumably its a maximising the number of athletes they could take thing then. Surely it is the same as the Europeans squad though not last year's worlds cause like you changed your men's double and your lightweight women's double since last year and that is what is entered here. Then again you must have made some changes though as your quads are now different to both Europeans and last years worlds so it can't just be the exact same squad. I'll believe you that your sweep squad will actually double up and not to trust the entries in the fours/pairs but your sculling squad has to pretty much be as entered with the probable exception of Simona Radis. Then again it is not typically Olympic and double world champions but world champion crews getting broken up the following year does happen and they did lose at Europeans. Ireland's lightweight double in 2019 is what immediately springs to mind. GB men's/ women's fours last year I guess but I know bigger boats are different. Also a slightly different situation but the French Olympic and 2022 world championship double have barely raced together this Olympic cycle. Split themselves into singles for most of 2022 and then Matheiu Androdias didn't race last year. It may not have happened here but there is precedence for selections like this. Could you post it here if they have/ do announce a different squad? Couple of other things I noticed on review, Norway selected Kjetil Borch in the double after he failed to qualify the single and China left old Zhang Liang out of their double which is curious.

[hide] *"Double-the-points" distributed as follow: Each user will have 3 during the Knockout stage. Each user will have to mark their matches with "Double-the-points" with an "*". Knockout Stage June 29th - July 14th, 2024 Final Date & Time (GMT +2) Nation 1 T1 T2 Nation 2 July 14th 2024, h. 21:00 Spain 2 1 England [/hide]

[hide] *"Double-the-points" distributed as follow: Each user will have 3 during the Knockout stage. Each user will have to mark their matches with "Double-the-points" with an "*". Knockout Stage July 04th - July 14th, 2024 Third-Place Match Date & Time (GMT -4) Nation 1 T1 T2 Nation 2 July 13th 2024, h. 20:00 Canada 0 2 Uruguay Final Date & Time (GMT -4) Nation 1 T1 T2 Nation 2 July 14th 2024, h. 20:00 Argentina 1 0 Colombia [/hide]

https://worldrowing.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Paris-2024-Olympic-Regatta-entry-list.pdf Entries have been released. Ukraine apparently rejected their W1x quota from the European qualification regatta which got Nina Kostanjsek in and an extra universality quota was added in the M1x and allocated to . Otherwise as expected except for Romania who have made a whole bunch of changes to their Europeans squad which itself was significantly changed from last year. The big headline is that they broke up the Olympic and back to back world champion women's double!!!! with Andrada-Maria Morosanu replacing Simona Radis who is still selected in the women's eight. They also aren't doubling up anyone with their four and pairs typically having doubled up in their eights over the last couple of years but not so for the Olympics. Seemingly prioritising their eights over definitely their respective fours. The priorities with regards to their pairs are a bit more ambigous with Nicu Chelaru and Denisa Tilvescu moving from their eights to their pairs joining Florin Arteni and Ioana Vrinceanu with Florin Lehaci and Roxana Anghel moving the other way to their eights. Tilvescu and Vrinceanu were together in the pair in 2022 and came 4th so should still be medal favourites in the womens pair but harder to know with the men's pair.

[hide] *"Double-the-points" distributed as follow: Each user will have 3 during the Knockout stage. Each user will have to mark their matches with "Double-the-points" with an "*". Knockout Stage July 04th - July 14th, 2024 4 Nations, the Winners of each Semifinal will qualify for the Final. The Losers of each Semifinal will play the Third-Place Match. Semifinals Date & Time (GMT -4) Nation 1 T1 T2 Nation 2 July 9th 2024, h. 20:00 Argentina 2* 0 Canada July 10th 2024, h. 20:00 Uruguay 1 0 Colombia [/hide]

[hide] *"Double-the-points" distributed as follow: Each user will have 3 during the Knockout stage. Each user will have to mark their matches with "Double-the-points" with an "*". Knockout Stage June 29th - July 14th, 2024 4 Nations, the Winners of each Semifinal will qualify for the Final. Semifinals Date & Time (GMT +2) Nation 1 T1 T2 Nation 2 July 9th 2024, h. 21:00 Spain 2 0 France July 10th 2024, h. 21:00 Netherlands 1 1 England [/hide]

Huh??? So there were 248 quotas originally in boxing. IOC then allocated two refugee quotas which in theory don't count towards the 248. So when they announced Rady Gramane had been allocated a universality quota that originally didn't exist my assumption had been that because Cindy Ngamba was effectively occupying two quotas simultaneously ie. a refugee quota and an actual quota, there was a spare quota which they seeemingly had allocated as a universality quota. Seems like they may have changed their mind on that but this has nothing to do with Cindy Ngamba's abilities just the number of quotas they have allocated.

I wouldn't be so sure about that. Pretty sure they added a universality quota when Cindy Ngamba qualified directly and the other refugee athlete Omid Ahmadisafa is not included in this document either so it looks like despite calling it a final quota allocation they haven't added the refugee quotas yet. It's a curious one but Rady Gramane 75kg should still be in.

The swimming announcement just doesn't make any sense. We have selected 7 relay only swimmers which there are a couple of ways we could have done but none of them really make sense. (The ways I can think of are select Shane Ryan with his 50Free OQT but don't let him race that event or not select Conor Ferguson as a relay only athlete and trust that he would then get allocated a spot based on his OCT. Relay only swimmers were selected before OCT allocations so Dodge's explanation of Ferguson racing individually as an explanation for why we have 7 relay only swimmers listed only works if we didn't initially select him as a relay only swimmer but that doesn't fit with the announcement.) Why is Conor Ferguson not listed as racing the 100 back despite getting an OCT invite? (Most likely explanation here is the announcement was written before the reallocation happened and Swim Ireland just didn't change it.) Why did we make the announcement yesterday when secondary OCT reallocations are still ongoing and theoretically John Shortt, Shane Ryan could still get reallocations. (What happens with Shane Ryan then?, Would he then get to race the 50 free, can you reaccept a quota you already rejected or possibly as I said above technically might have accepted if only to get an extra relay swimmer) I'm so confused. Just if I was Erin Riordan I'd be a bit nervous that Swim Ireland just fucked this up and we don't actually have a spot for her which is the worst possible outcome here. The best and funniest would be having to do a secondary team announcement in both swimming and diving if John Shortt sneeks in.

[hide] *"Double-the-points" distributed as follow: Each user will have 3 during the Knockout stage. Each user will have to mark their matches with "Double-the-points" with an "*". Knockout Stage June 29th - July 14th, 2024 8 Nations, the Winners of each Quarterfinal will qualify for the Semifinals. Quarterfinals Date & Time (GMT +2) Nation 1 T1 T2 Nation 2 July 5th 2024, h. 18:00 Spain 2 1 Germany July 5th 2024, h. 21:00 Portugal 0 2 France July 6th 2024, h. 18:00 England 1 1 Switzerland July 6th 2024, h. 21:00 Netherlands 2* 0 Turkey [/hide]

[hide] *"Double-the-points" distributed as follow: Each user will have 3 during the Knockout stage. Each user will have to mark their matches with "Double-the-points" with an "*". Knockout Stage July 04th - July 14th, 2024 8 Nations, the Winners of each Quarterfinal will qualify for the Semifinals. Quarterfinals Date & Time (GMT -5) Nation 1 T1 T2 Nation 2 July 4th 2024, h. 20:00, GMT -5 Argentina 2* 0 Ecuador July 5th 2024, h. 20:00, GMT -5 Venezuela 1 0 Canada July 6th 2024, h. 15:00, GMT -7 Colombia 2* 1 Panama July 6th 2024, h. 18:00, GMT -7 Uruguay 1 1 Brazil [/hide]

Ye, Wyatt Sanford got a good draw with at least on paper Miguel Ramirez being an easier draw than Harry Garside , Bunjong Sinsiri or Lasha Guruli although the easiest possible draw was the 12.5% chance of getting Jugurtha Ait Bekka . Then again there is a lot of quality left amongst the unseeded boxers so I wouldn't be plotting Sanford's path to the final just yet. Tammara Thibeault got an okay draw. Davina Michel is fine apart from as you mentioned her being at home. Aoife O'Rourke also has a comfortable win against Atheyna Bylon from 2022 and has also beaten Qian Li and Lovlina Borgohain at Strandja this year so on paper could be the toughest potential matchup for Thibeault although that was definitely a matchup I was hoping we wouldn't see until the final and could prove the difference between a silver and a bronze for O'Rourke although I would be more than satisfied with any medal of course. Cindy Ngamba is lurking somewhere in the draw as well. This gives me a good excuse to talk about the other Irish boxers as well. Kellie Harrington got as tough a bracket as possible with a potential quarter final against world silver medallist Angie Valdes followed by a potential rematch of the Tokyo Olympic final against world champion Beatriz Ferreira . Obviously Kellie won in Tokyo but will need to back in that kind of form to get back to an Olympic final. I think she will be though. Jack Marley got a better initial draw avoiding potential quarter final matchups with Aziz Abbes Mouhiidine or Julio Cesar la Cruz being seeded in the same bracket as Davlat Boltaev although it would be somewhat of a surprise if they both won their first fight given the quality of the unseeded boxers is roughly equivalent to the seeded ones at heavyweight.

Seeded Boxers Unseeded Boxers Seeded percentage Australia 12 0 100.0 Brazil 9 1 90.0 China 7 1 87.5 France 5 3 62.5 Thailand 4 4 50.0 USA 4 4 50.0 Algeria 4 1 80.0 Uzbekistan 3 8 27.3 Ireland 3 7 30.0 Turkey 3 5 37.5 Chinese Taipei 3 3 50.0 Cuba 3 2 60.0 Colombia 3 2 60.0 Bulgaria 3 2 60.0 Nigeria 3 0 100.0 Kazakhstan 2 8 20.0 Mexico 2 2 50.0 Serbia 2 1 66.7 Egypt 2 1 66.7 Morocco 2 1 66.7 North Korea 2 0 100.0 Canada 2 0 100.0 Italy 1 7 12.5 India 1 5 16.7 Great Britain and NI 1 5 16.7 Spain 1 5 16.7 Azerbaijan 1 4 20.0 Philippines 1 4 20.0 Tajikistan 1 2 33.3 Ukraine 1 2 33.3 Belgium 1 2 33.3 Ecuador 1 2 33.3 Dominican Republic 1 2 33.3 Refugee team 1 1 50.0 Georgia 1 1 50.0 Croatia 1 0 100.0 Zambia 1 1 50.0 Romania 1 0 100.0 Denmark 1 0 100.0 Panama 1 0 100.0 Samoa 1 0 100.0 Tunisia 1 0 100.0 Poland 0 5 0.0 Hungary 0 3 0.0 Jordan 0 3 0.0 Mozambique 0 3 0.0 Venezuela 0 2 0.0 Puerto Rico 0 2 0.0 Mongolia 0 2 0.0 Japan 0 2 0.0 Sweden 0 2 0.0 Germany 0 2 0.0 Norway 0 2 0.0 South Korea 0 2 0.0 Vietnam 0 2 0.0 DR Congo 0 2 0.0 Cape Verde 0 2 0.0 Armenia 0 1 0.0 Netherlands 0 1 0.0 Finland 0 1 0.0 Kyrgyzstan 0 1 0.0 Kosovo 0 1 0.0 Slovakia 0 1 0.0 Haiti 0 1 0.0 Mali 0 1 0.0 North Macedonia 0 1 0.0 Tonga 0 1 0.0 Palestine 0 1 0.0 So look first of all any seeding is better than no seeding. It just minimizes some of the potential volatility of the draw In this case seeding doesn't doesn't matter that much and in many cases the only major difference between being seeded or not is being gauranteed a bye but this particular approach of seeding being based on the continental qualifers hurts European boxers the most as well as countries like Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and India that struggled at continental championships. Despite qualifying 4 at European games Italy are the "worst" effected by this seeding system as only Mouhiidine made the European final. Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan with 8 unseeded boxers along with Ireland and Italy on 7 in theory would have the most to gain if these draws weren't seeded and they could simply allow their depth to ensure they got some good draws. In theory Australia are the big winners from this system but in practice for most of their boxers getting a bye only increases the chance they lose their first fight and their biggest male medal hopes got tough brackets with Tokyo medallist Harry Garside and Teremoana Jnr having potential quarter finals against former Olympic champions Sofiane Oumiha and Bakhodir Jalolov . These brackets definitely help W75kg Caitlin Parker's chances though and opens the door ajar for the likes of Monique Suraci . W50kg W54kg W57kg W60kg W66kg W75kg M51kg M57kg M63.5kg M71kg M80kg M92kg M92+kg Total percentage Estimated number of seeded boxers who actually rank in top 8 of their weightclass. 5 4 5 6 5 6 4 4 5 3 5 4 6 59.62% So in terms of the actual impact of this seeding, they make a difference but not that much. M71kg basically only matters for bye purposes. Divisions like W60kg, W75kg and M92+kg matters more as an unseeded now has a pretty good chance of having to beat 2 of the top 8 boxers in the division to make the medals. The important thing and the purpose of these seeds is they make the chance an unseeded doesn't have to beat any of the top 8 boxers to win a medal very slim. (Not sure I explained what I wanted to explain particularly well but sure look.)

US men's gymnastics team: Fred Richard, Brody Malone, Asher Hong, Paul Juda and Stephen Nedoroscik . Alernates: Khoi Young, Shane Wiskus. Taking Nedoroscik seems like a massive overreaction to a poor team pommel performances at trials. It's not like Nedoroscik's pommel scores were that good (14.45 and 14.85) and leaving out current world pommel silver medaliist Khoi Young because of a couple of falls seems incredibly harsh.

https://boxing.athlete365.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Seeding_Final_short_V2.pdf Olympic seeding is out. Draw was random for the continental champions with either Africa or Oceania gauranteed to be seeded 5th so whether a boxer is seeded 1st 3rd or 4th doesn't matter, what does matter is the boxer that is opposite them in a hypothethical quarter final and semi final although given the quality of unseeded boxers in most of these divisions we won't see that many of these potential matchups. Silver medallists from Europe, Africa and Asia randomly seeded 6th, 7th or 8th. In some of these weightclasses like M71kg all being seeded really does is gaurantee you a bye into the last 16.

[hide] *"Double-the-points" distributed as follow: Each user will have 3 during the Knockout stage. Each user will have to mark their matches with "Double-the-points" with an "*". Knockout Stage June 29th - July 14th, 2024 16 Nations, the Winners of each Round of 16-matches will qualify for the Quarterfinals. Round of 16 Date & Time (GMT +2) Nation 1 T1 T2 Nation 2 June 29th 2024, h. 18:00 Switzerland 1 1 Italy June 29th 2024, h. 21:00 Germany 2 0 Denmark June 30th 2024, h. 18:00 England 2 1 Slovakia June 30th 2024, h. 21:00 Spain 3* 1 Georgia July 1st 2024, h. 18:00 France 2 1 Belgium July 1st 2024, h. 21:00 Portugal 2* 0 Slovenia July 2nd 2024, h. 18:00 Romania 1 2 Netherlands July 2nd 2024, h. 21:00 Austria 1 0 Turkey [/hide]