Ogreman

My regular season predictions turned out to be half decent so lets give the playoffs a go. I haven't thought as much as I would have liked about these series so I'm sure I'll look back on this in a weeks time and hate half of my predictions but sure look. Eastern conference round 1 Boston Celtics (1) vs Miami Heat (8)- Celtics in 4- This should be what happens but its the heat so you never know. New York Knicks (2) vs Philadelphia 76ers (7)- Sixers in 6- Could be the most interesting series we see at any point in the eastern conference, Would be the best team Joel Embiid has beaten in the playoffs if the sixers can win. I think the coaching advantage decides this. Milwaukee Bucks (3) vs Indiana Pacers (6)- Bucks in 7 - Both teams have major question marks, interesting series stylistically especially with regards to pace. I wouldn't be particularly shocked by any outcome in this series Cleveland Cavaliers (4) vs Orlando Magic (5)- Magic in 7- One for the purists ay, Both teams will gift the other a game or two, Cavs because of coaching/general playoff incompetence and the Magic because of how inexperienced they are. Western conference 1st round Oklahoma City Thunder (1) vs New Orleans Pelicans (8)- Thunder in 5- Likely no Zion makes this less interesting than it could have been. Denver Nuggets (2) vs Los Angeles Lakers (7)- Nuggets in 5- Not sure why I'm giving the lakers a game but I am apparently, I'll preemptively blame the refs. Minnesota Timberwolves (3) vs Phoenix Suns (6)- Timberwolves in 7- Suns won the regular seasons matchups and their Iso heavy offence seem to disarm the stifling Timberwolves defence fairly effectively, Anthony Edwards has probably got to be the best player in this series but timberwolves should win the adjustment battle. Two good coaches just timberwolves have a lot more options. Los Angels Clippers (4) vs Dallas Mavericks (5)- Clippers in 7- This changes if Kawhi doesn't play. Everyone seems to love the Mavs, They are good and Luka is amazing obviously but if they are healthy the clippers should win this just like they won previous clippers mavs series in spite of Luka's brilliance. Also this is a don't trust March basketball series. Eastern conference semis Boston Celtics (1) vs Orlando Magic (5)- Celtics in 4- Whether its Cleveland or Orlando, this is a sweep unless Boston plays with its food. Milwaukee Bucks (3) vs Philadelphia 76ers (7)- Sixers in 6- If we get this series, Giannis and Embiid are both healthy at this point although who can stay that way could decide this series. Can't believe I'm picking Embiid and the sixers in the second round given their history but the coaching battle will be crucial in this series and there is only one winner there. Western conference semis Oklahoma City Thunder (1) vs Los Angels Clippers (4)- Clippers in 6- Shai is great but for me he is not the calibre of player that the general nba world seems to have decided he is despite not seeing him in the playoffs as a primary option. The thunder are as inexperienced as they come but teams like the clippers will likely be able to out execute them when it comes down to it. Denver Nuggets (2) vs Minnesota Timberwolves (3)- Nuggets in 6- Timberwolves' size has given Denver trouble at times and if there is a defence to slow Denver down its this one. Denver should be too talented though. Naz Reid, Jaden McDaniels, older Anthony Edwards and this not being directly after the play-in gives Minnesota one more game than they won in this series last year Eastern conference finals Boston Celtics (1) vs Philadelphia 76ers (7)- Celtics in 6- This could be a sweep or this could be ridiculously close. Let's go somewhere in the middle. Western conference finals Denver Nuggets (2) vs Los Angeles Clippers (5)- Nuggets in 5- Clippers had a better record this year against Denver than they had had in recent years and James Harden does allow them offensive versatility that they lacked in this matchup in the past. Denver will score though, potentially a lot. NBA Finals Boston Celtics (1) vs Denver Nuggets (2)- Nuggets in 5- If we get this matchup it would be the highest quality finals we have had in a while. Wouldn't normally read too much into regular season matchups but both teams targeted their two meetings in the regular season and Denver took both. Celtics will have a game or two where they shoot 50+% from 3 but other than that I don't see them beating Denver despite their historically good regular season. Stylistically the Celtics don't have the type of offense or defense that can challenge the Nuggets few chinks. There are a lot of indicators thrown about regarding what a team needs to have the be a title contender (top 10 offense and defense, top 3 seed/ above a certain net rating, etc) but the one that has been most true in recent years is you need to have one of the best 2/3 players in the league. Tatum is far away from that level, maybe this celtics team is the one to prove it wrong and hypothethically against other finals teams of recent years (2022 warriors, 2021 Bucks/ Suns) maybe they would have but Denver is a level above plus they are a bad matchup for the Celtics so for me if this ends up being the finals, Denver wins a shorter than expected but still very entertaining series.

And Japan would take one in the W1x No Peru have the W1x and the LW2x qualified from the American qualifying regatta despite winning neither. I don't think there any gender related rules in the qualification system anymore.

India don't need to win two events. Only Japan who already have the M1x qualified need to win two events if they want to qualify two boats from this regatta. India will almost certainly get two boats qualified here.

Konan Pazzaia looked great in the M1x 4th fastest time overall and half a length down on the world silver medallist. If he can replicate that form through the regatta he will get picked over Colsh for FOQR and would be in contention to qualify. I probably wouldn't read that much into a heat result though and he does need to produce that form 3 more times this weekend. Brian Colsh didn't look very good at all despite being IRL1, maybe despite his physique the single just doesn't suit him, 3rd in his heat left him a little at the mercy of quarter finals draw but he seems to have gotten away with it although will need a better row this afternoon than he produced this morning just to make the semis. The Men's four did not look good at all and Germany, Switzerland, and Italy none of whom have qualified for the Olympics all looked great and were beating the Dutch and the Brits (First time the Brits have lost all Olympic cycle I think.). The one saving grace for the four is A. look new combination, Ronan Byrne new to sweep and B. terrible start and didn't lose that much time down the middle of the course but ye need to be beating Denmark and Ukraine tomorrow if they want any hope of qualifying for the Olympics. I know they are young and all but surely this four should be producing better results than it is. Lets see how they go tomorrow. The men's pair apparently had quite a disrupted preparation with illness and injury so being off the pace of the British/ Swiss is not a disaster but they have a bit of work still to do just to make the final here, they should though. Wouldn't be at all worried about the double being well beaten by Italy, that was true early last year as well. Yeah women's boats all looked great. Maybe Sanita ending her career with an Olympic medal is still on the cards (probably a bit premature but). Only other thing I would mention is Canada opted to not field a women's four at FOQR and Germany who were 11th last year seem to be going for the eight so like its basically gauranteed to be us and Denmark that qualify. Poland is now the biggest threat but they are not a big one and if we can stay ahead of Denmark that won't even matter. But ye I would be thinking about the four in terms of can it get to being competitive in an Olympic final and not worrying much at all whether it will qualify.

If this is how she feels about the Olympics, Why turn pro? Fair enough, this how I should feel but for some reason its not. I just hope it doesn't work out.

It seems to me that it is just too compressed a time frame for it to actually happen. A lot needs to happen in a very short period of time. To be fair to Amy Broadhurst all she has ever said is the Olympics are her dream and her number one goal. She could have transferred to GB two years when it was clear Kellie was getting the Irish selection at 60kg but opted to try to compete at significantly above her natural weight to compete for Ireland. In the unlikely event it is actually possible GB would be crazy to not throw out their selection policy and pick her over Shona Whitwell especially given the severe lack of medal contenders in the British squad at the moment. I dont think I'd hold this against her and if it does happen and she ends up with an Olympic medal as long as she doesn't beat Kellie I think I would be happy for her. I think I would prefer it just doesn't work out though so hopefully dodge's source is right. Out of interest how do the rest of us feel if she was to win an Olympic medal for Paris. I think Sky Brown was the only medal they won in Tokyo where I was happy to see a Brit win and that was A. a cool story and B. she is very much only part British. It will be strange though now if she does end up winning a world title as a pro is it for Britain or Ireland. Finally I do wonder why she doesn't consider more strongly sticking around in the amateurs for LA. I know everytime you mention LA you have to caveat it with ifs and maybes but in all likelihood boxing will end up on the program. Everything Amy has ever said and done indicates the Olympics are what she dreams of. Is your pro career really going to be that different whether you start it at 27 or 31. Like it will probably be 8-10 years or so regardless of when it starts. Is potentially a couple of additional years in the pro ranks really worth giving up on the Olympics assuming this latest pathway doesn't work out. Like Kellie is done after Paris and sure there are some impressive youngsters like Ava Henry and Siofra Lawless coming through but its mostly at 63kg and if you're a 63kg boxer at youth level you're probably at least at 66kg boxer in the senior ranks and regardless Amy would then be in the position selection wise that she was the wrong side of for the last two Olympic cycles.

https://www.rowingireland.ie/2024-world-cup-i-team-announcement/ Well well well, This is an interesting one. The heavyweights normally train in Varese so I suspect us going to world cup 1 is just because it is slightly more conveniant and well slightly higher standard of competition than our typical preseason regatta in Piediluco which was last weekend. The absence of the lightweights probably confirms my suspicion that this is just an end of training camp regatta more than anything else but there are only two weeks between world cup 1 and Europeans and then just 3 weeks from there to FOQR so it is definitely possible that for our not yet qualified boats this will be the only time we see them before FOQR. So no obvious changes in priority boats so despite it seemingly being on the table of prioritising the womens four over the pair, Murtagh and Keogh must be showing medal potential or at least better medal chances than a hypothethical prioritised four. Emily Hegarty as expected comes back in to stroke the four having missed last season through injury but interestingly it is Sanita who isn't in the boat (Natalie Long, Eimear Lambe, Imogen Magner keep their places). Sanita is selected in the single which I suppose will be interesting and probably will get a fair bit of a hype but she very likely missed out on the four so I would probably set the initial expectations quite low and just being in contention to qualify from FOQR would be a big achievement. It probably is the end of Sanita's slim hopes of ending her career with an Olympic medal her career so clearly deserves but until we until we actually see her race we can dream that she chose to race the single and that this is last hurrah in the boat that has made her career. Anyway the likes of Aurelia Maxima Janzen , Virginia Dias Rivas and (H)anna Prakat(s)en / (Should qualify the Asian continental route but may have some competition from the two Uzbek lightweight doubles. They would presumably pick Prakaten if they all won at Asian continental qualifiers but they might gamble if they think Prakaten can qualify through FOQR or maybe she just doesn't win.) haven't yet qualified in the single so I think realistically based on this Sanita will probably end her career as the alternate for the Olympics assuming we qualify the four and get an alternate. (Pretty sure they tightened the number of alternate athletes you can take so its just the 4-/4x/8+ that gets them now.) I hope I'm wrong though. Alison Bergin and Zoe Hyde are very clearly the double but aren't racing here for some reason. Wouldn't be too worried about that, hopefully we see them at Europeans. Tara Hanlon, Aisling Hayes and Holly Davis miss out. You can race up to four boats per boatclass at world cup 1 so if they are in Varese it seems strange not to give them a hit out especially Holly Davis who is presumably targeting an under 23 world medal this year. The mens double is unchanged so Daire Lynch keeps his spot alongside Philip Doyle and the Sinkovic's switching to the pair clearly hasn't scared us into prioritising the four and we have stuck with Nathan Timoney, Ross Corrigan pair. Wouldn't be that shocked if one or both of these boats end up skipping world cup 1 and just focusing on Europeans, the womens pair is in that category too. I mentioned I thought it was possible we would make a decision between prioritising the four or the quad. I did really want a quad but we have gone with a four. Andrew Sheahan and Ronan Byrne! move from the quad into the four replacing Adam Murphy and Fionnan McQuillan Tolan. Sheahan has won under 23 medals in the four but as far as I know Byrne has never raced outside a sculling boat. John Kearney and Jack Dorney unsurprisingly keep their spots. I think the logic here is that going with a four then frees up Brian Colsh for the single but if the four narrowly misses out on qualifying, that theoretical quad may come back to haunt us. Brian Colsh in the single is an interesting move. He is built like a single sculler and obviously his form and I assume his power numbers have probably been great over the past couple of years but it didn't translate to good results in the single at 2022 worlds or last years Europeans albeit the entire squad didn't seem in great shape at last years Europeans. His under 23 world champion double partner Konan Pazzaia also gets a race here in the single which is either a good indication of his form or possibly a reason to not get too excited about Colsh's chances of making the Olympics. (I'm tempted to read into Pazzaia's name being above Colsh's in the selection announcement but I'll refrain from doing so) Assuming it is Colsh that races FOQR and we don't spontaneously make massive changes this is a but harsh on Pazzaia and Adam Murphy as they had both earned a shot at making the Olympics. Both should have multiple future Olympic cycles in them though. As for Fionnan McQuillan Tolan, as soon as we opted against sticking with trying to qualify both a four and a quad his chances were probably done although Natalie Long has proven that older athletes can force their way into the reckoning in a subsequent Olympic cycle having not really been that close before. Normally with early season regattas like Piediluco we don't really need to be too worried about form and stuff but for the 2 fours and the at this point 3 singles they need to look good here and while full entries aren't out yet I would expect to see a fair few of their major competition for qualification at this regatta. Also for the M2x and both pairs the Olympics are over a month earlier than world champs typically are. Now the world cup season shifts forward accordingly but I would still hope to see them in good form here. From a qualifying perspective. One further mens boat and one more womens boat should be the minimum expectation for the quality in this squad. The womens four should qualify and I'd be fairly optimistic about the men's one. We will have a much better idea of our chances in the singles after this regatta. Colsh is talented enough but hasn't proven it in the single yet and Sanita Puspure, well lets wait and see. Qualifying singles at FOQR though is tough given how volatile the boatclass is, even if some of the competition is eligible for continental quotas.

https://www.irishnews.com/sport/amy-broadhurst-everything-ive-put-in-over-the-last-22-years-it-just-feels-like-its-been-blown-away-NSBELKXOX5GJ7KB4X2EBZMXPVE/ I don't understand this decision but best of the luck to Grainne Walsh I guess. Heartbreaking end to her amateur career for Amy Broadhurst. One of our best ever female boxers and yet we never managed to get her to an Olympics. I'd fully expect her to go on to win a world title as a pro but its not the same as an Olympic medal. On a more optimistic note, looks like Wexford boxing's media propaganda campaign over Dean Walsh has failed miserably.

Look I'm definitely more of an NBA fan than an international basketball fan because you know Ireland and our recent historic triumph at the european championships for small countries doesn't really do it for me but this thread is way too low on Canada. They have a very complete roster top to bottom and sure star power matters less than it does in the NBA but Shai Gilgeous Alexander and Jamal Murray are two of the most reliable bucket getters in the world. Canada has a litany of elite defensive wings and as such possibly has the highest defensive upside of anyone here. Maybe it doesn't work out for them but talking about them like they are a team who are unlikely to/ should be satisfied with making the quarter finals is bonkers. Look I love the idea of Jokic punking the Americans or the French beating them on home soil, but for me the team that is best matched to push a possibly ageing US team is Canada. (Admittedly that is not to say that I think they would definitely beat France or Serbia just that they match up better with the Americans.)

For what its worth, I 'd be shocked if this scenario played out and Brazil didn't choose Lucas Verthein Ferreira over their lightweight double. Verthein Ferreira was 12th in Tokyo and 14th at last years world championships and they haven't selected a lightweight double at all this Olympic cycle other than panam games where they finished 4th as far as I am aware. He will almost certainly win here and this should just be a quirk of using heat times so this shouldn't end up mattering but it does have implications for the likes of and in the M1x and in the LM2x. Also what happened to 's LM2x. Felipe Kluver Ferreira and Mauricio Lopez Berocay came 15th at worlds last year. Kluver Ferreira made 3 world cup finals in the LM1x and was under 23 world champion in that boat in 2022. With a bit of luck they made the Olympic final in Tokyo with Kluver Ferreira and Bruno Cetraro Berriolo who is now in the M1x. How are they finishing last in their heat here? Is their new man Franco Liuzzi that bad?

Why not? Let's have the conversation. Is that not what this thread is for? She has 8 international fights and 3 losses in the past year. What's the fourth? All of the losses split decisions. She lost to 2022 European champion 52kg Tetyana Kob at Usti Nad Labem and then reversed that and beat her at European games. Then lost to World bronze medallist Wassila Lkhadiri in a very close fight at European games and then "loses" a fight here that for me she deserved to win against a boxer who just beat the World and Asian champions at Strandja. I guess your refering to the Nikolina Cacic fight at European under22s in 2022. Yeah that was a bad loss but I would make the observation that Nikolina Cacic is in fact an Olympian at 57kg and that Moorehouse is miles better now than she was a couple of years ago. She is young, young boxers improve. Only counting international fights is also a weird way of counting this when Caitlin Fryers is a 2022 European silver medallist in this weightclass and Shannon Sweeney is also a European medallist. You don't stop being an Olympic calibre boxer just because you lose split decisions against some of the best boxers in the world. Like Jude Gallagher had 3 international fights last year and lost all 3. You add in the context that one was against they were against the European champion (Javier Ibanez Diaz), the panam and 2021 world champion (Jahmal Harvey) and Strandja silver medallist (Orazbek Assylkulov)(lost to Ibanez Diaz and beat two other now qualified Olympians including the now World champion plus the reigning European champ at the time at the same tournament.) He qualified here and looks a decent outside bet for an Olympic medal. I just think this a very reductive way of looking at Moorehouse. Her results are consistent with a comfortably top 8-10 boxer in the world. I had her 10th when I ranked them in December. I would move her up a couple of spots now having beaten Thi Tham Nguyen. Boxrec currently has her 9th with one per nation. (10th with double Japan.) Lastly there are 22 spots at W50kg (well 21 plus a universality spot). Even if you are a bit lower on Moorehouse you should still expect her to qualify. There really isn't a bad draw left other than maybe Namiki as I said. He seemed happy enough here. Certainly possible but I think if he is in a good place mentally which he seems to be he will go.

Who do you think would beat Moorehouse? She has beaten Thi Tham Nguyen and Tetyana Kob . She looked a lot stronger than the likes of Alua Balkybekova , Natalia Kuczewska and Pihla Kaivo Oja at this tournament. Maybe if Olympic medallist Tsukimi Namiki comes back into the Japan squad but even then I think I would back Moorehouse. Probability doesn't work like this but there is a bit of she has to get a good draw eventually right? I would be more worried about Cassidy given there are only three quotas left and a just under 25% chance he draws Alfiorau before the semis. Cassidy has improved a lot since he lost to Alfiorau in 2021 and got a lot closer to beating Oralbay than Alfiorau did so it certainly wouldn't be a gauranteed loss but I'm sure Cassidy is sick of having to beat world champions just to qualify. (I know Alfiorau is technically only a world silver medallist but still) I think a lot of luck for the others is a bit strong. It would help but like there is no one left that Aidan Walsh or Jennifer Lehane can't beat. Walsh, I think would love a second go at Wanderson but Wanderson would start as favourite. He has beaten Nishant Dev before. Zakhareiev , Eashash and Schachidov would all be close fights but I think Walsh would start as the favourite. He would definitely be favoured against Durkacz , Cuellar or Richardson . Obviously ideally he would only have to beat 1 maybe 2 of these boxers but he certainly doesn't "need" a lot of luck with the draw. Plus there are five quotas so a little bit of extra scope draw wise. There will probably be one weird one like Kiwan this time around but like probably at least 4 of the 9 boxers I mentioned will qualify and Walsh is at worst in the middle of that pack. Lehane admittedly has it a bit tougher but like, for me at least she is better than Sirine Charaabi and Thi Kim Anh Vo who qualified here. Obviously don't really know exactly what happened against Romane Moulai and if she can't beat Moulai or that kind of calibre of boxer again ye she probably isn't making the Olympics. Hsiao wen Huang and Anastasia Kovalchuk losing here doesn't help although Kovalchuk's recent form has been terrible so maybe that fight would be winnable. Zhaina Shekerbekova , Sandra Drabik , Johana Gomez , Enkhjargal Mungunsetseg (assuming Mongolia show up to the second qualifier), the aforementioned Moulai, Im Aeji (who beat Hsiao Wen Huang and deserved to beat Charaabi) and maybe Scarlett Delgado would all be tough. She beat Sara Cirkovic which in hindsight was a really good win and obviously outclassed Niamh Fay at nationals who I think has beaten 4 boxers who are now qualified for the Olympics (in 3 different weightclasses) over the last couple of years. (If only Niamh Fay was in any way consistent ay.) Like she is capable of this calibre of win. Also the draw obviously could be very kind (Kovalchuk had a kind draw here and then bottled it losing to Islem Ferchichi . I have no idea why Ukraine did so poorly here. Yeah I know, there is a war on but like this was still a remarkably awful performance from Ukraine.) but when you have a situation where you have 8/9 fairly evenly matched boxers for 4 quotas you kind of know on balance you will have to beat 1 or 2 of said boxers. I think she is good enough but let's see. Martin McDonagh obviously is still a long shot but he is rapidly improving. Took 2 really good wins here and had the closest fight of the tournament against a Tokyo Olympian. Obviously with the likes of Fernando Arzola and Danabieke Bayikewuzi still in the mix qualifying is very unlikely but Omar Shiha managed to ride his luck a bit here and get a quota and I don't think he is much better than McDonagh. There are still probably 9 or so boxers definitely ahead of McDonagh so he would need to cause possibly multiple upsets but they happen especially at super heavyweight. The optimistic way of looking at things for Sean Mari is well Juanma Lopez came out of nowhere and through a weak bracket to qualify here. You need to be very optimistic to convince yourself that Mari still has a chance though. I just kind of hope he gets a straightforward draw in his first couple of fights. Losing his first fight at all 3 qualifying tournaments would be harsh on the man. Just for completeness W66kg whether it is Walsh/ Broadhurst/ O'Rourke (I think O'Rourke is unlikely at this point. Feel like if she was going to get picked it would have been here. Hopefully she gets her chance in LA.). Getting Stefanie Von Berge again wouldn't be ideal but us qualifying at W66kg has to be the safest pick of any of the 51 quotas available at the second world qualifer. So for me disregarding injury risk, surprise selections or a robbery worse than the Grainne Walsh one today our chances look roughly like. Boxer Qualification chance Daina Moorehouse 75%-85% Jennifer Lehane 45%-55% Grainne Walsh/ Amy Broadhurst 90%-95% Sean Mari 1%-2% Aidan Walsh 60%-70% Kelyn Cassidy 75%-80% Martin McDonagh 5%-10% Cumalative expected qualifiers 3.51-3.97 boxers So I am still at should get 3 (9 in total), hopefully get 4 (10), Not out of the question we could get 5 (11) but at this point that is unlikely. Then again, Unfortunately the risk of falling even of the IABA's original taget of 8 still exists when we really could (and should) have been going into the final qualifier mostly playing with house money.

Why just 2? Something will have to have gone very wrong if Daina Moorehouse, Grainne Walsh/ Amy Broadhurst or Kelyn Cassidy don't secure a quota at the last one. I would rank us 1st of the remaining boxers at W50kg and W66kg (regardless of who we pick). Cassidy just needs to avoid Alfiorau although he could absolutely beat him even if he did draw him. Aidan Walsh and Jennifer Lehane are both in the mix maybe a little bit more dependent on the draw but still very much in with a shout. Wouldn't entirely rule out Niamh Fay coming into the squad but its unlikely. McDonagh impressed here, qualifying is a tough ask but boxers worse than him managed to get a quota here. Mari would need a miracle. Besides how many 3-2 split decisions in quota fights can we possibly lose? 3 at European games (counting the Cassidy Khyzniak 3-0), 2 here plus the Moorehouse Bobokulova fight which was effectively for the quota in that bracket. (I mean there was the McDonagh one as well but Lenzi would have been tough even if he had got that decision.) I thought all three of the big ones at this tournament should have gone our way. The Cassidy Oralbay fight was genuinely 50-50 so ye know you'll lose some of them but still fuming about the Grainne Walsh and Daina Moorehouse decisions. Like if you had told me before our nine European games quarter finals that we would only have six qualified after the first world qualifying tournament. Look we can still get 10 and 9 should still be the baseline but man I feel like we should already have 9. Anyway delighted for Jude Gallagher. Carlo Paalam getting injured against Andrey Bonilla and subsequently having to withdraw obviously helped but the form Gallagher is in. May well have beaten him anyway. His win against Mohamed Hussam uddin was worthy of a quota anyway.

Yeah ok, I rewatched this fight. Still think Gonzalez probably deserved to win but it was very close and wasn't clearly wrong. To be clear my macro take on the judging throughout qualifying is that (other than host country bias which has existed at every boxing tournament ever) the judging has been remarkably unbiased. It just hasn't been very good. On the commentary thing I don't think yer man is that good a judge of boxing fights. I have watched many a fight where it feels he seems to be commentating on an entirely different fight to what I'm watching. To be fair I have thought Nicola Adams has been fairly insightful, the other three of them I'm not so sure about. Lastly my own judging abilities aren't very good, I mentioned the Csemez Gonzalez fight because I had been surprised by the decision and then I had also seen others elsewhere be surprised by the decision. It is completely fair to disregard my opinion on judging decisions in specific fights.

I mostly agree that the current scoring system doesn't work effectively. For me I would just change the default score for a round to 10-8 and then only close rounds be scored 10-9 and one sided rounds 10-7 rather than the current system where unless you batter the shit out of someone for three minutes straight, the score will be 10-9. This would obviously deviate from pro boxing and make the sytem more complex and being simple to understand is the primary logic behind the current scoring system but I think it would make fights more interesting and should make judging decisions more accurate Yes, the judges here are just bad, but there were only probably a couple of decisions they actually got wrong today though (Csemez 3-2 Gonzalez and Ovezov 3-2 Shahbakhsh are the two that spring to mind but I would need to watch them again to be sure). Obviously I only saw half of a lot of fights and missed some entirely but this was the sense I got. I think the IOC is kind of using the qualifying tournaments to figure out who the bad judges are so hopefully by the Olympics the judging will be closer to competent but obviously using the qualifying tournaments to do this is far from ideal. Anyway this is what I actually wanted to address because the comentators made this mistake too. This statement is sort of true but also not really true at all. In actuality one warning (point deduction) can almost never change the result of a fight. Two and ye you have to win all three rounds for at least 3 judges to win the fight which is obviously pretty devastating but one deduction doesn't really do anything because of how ties are scored. So disregarding 10-8s typically the possible scores are 30-27, 29-28, 28-29 and 27-30. If a judge gives all three rounds to the same boxer points deductions can never effect anything (3rd points deduction is a disqualification) so the score changes to 30-26 or 27-29 (30-25 and 27-28 with 2 warnings) not effecting the result at all. If a boxer loses 28-29 and has a points deduction then it just changes to 27-29 and again no impact on the outcome of the fight. The confusing one is when a boxer wins two rounds and has a points deduction in which the score does indeed change to 28-28 but whats crucial here is the rules regarding tied scorecards. I don't think this is widely understood very well but the rule regarding tied scores is if the judges who have it tied can effect the outcome, then they go back to those judges and they pick a winner. Basically if the tied scores matter the relevant judges pick a winner and as such you can never end a fight with the score being 2-0, 2-1 or 1-0. I'll use an actual example to explain this. So lets look at one of today's 57kg fights Carlo Paalam vs Andrey Bonilla . This fight ended 3-1 to Paalam after Bonilla got a point deduction for what was basically a body slam. (Paalam seemed to hurt his shoulder so hopefully he is ok) (Also its a while since I have seen a boxer as dirty as Bonilla. Would not want to have to box him.) So the judges scores ended up being 29-27 (29-28), 29-27 (29-28), 27-29 (27-30), 28-28 (28-29), 29-27 (29-28) (score with no deduction in brackets) where judges 1,2 and 5 had Paalam winning two rounds and losing one. Judge 3 having Bonilla winning all three and judge 4 having Bonilla winning 2 and losing one round. With the points deduction obviously meaning that judge 4's score was tied. All the other judges results were unaffected by the deduction. Because judge 4's score couldn't change the outcome of the fight his scorecard was simply left as a tie. If he was asked he almost certainly would have given Bonilla the fight given that he gave him 2 rounds and Paalam only one but that would still only make the score 3-2 so it is just left as a tie and the fight's score is 3-1. If for example one more judge went in favour of Bonilla the scores in the Paalam Bonilla fight would therfore be 29-27, 29-27, 27-29, 28-28, 28-28. This fight would not end 2-1 in favour of Paalam. The two tied scores, in this hypothethical case judge 4 and 5, could cumalatively change the winner of the fight so they go back to judge 4 and 5 and they both pick a winner. Again, crucially for a fight to be 28-28 the boxer who received a points deduction has to have won two rounds for that judge and therefore that judge logically would almost always pick that boxer to win. In this scenario the score with a points deduction would be 2-3 in favour of Bonilla assuming judge 4 and 5 are logical and if the points deduction never happened the score would also be 2-3 in favour of Bonilla. To emphasize this any fight where with tied scores the fight initially is scored 2-0, 2-1 or 1-0 the tied judges choose a victor and because the only way to have a points deduction and a tied score (not including 10-8 scenarios) is where the boxer who received a deduction won 2 rounds for the tied judge/ judges. Logically one point deduction should never change the outcome of a fight. Unfortunately for my argument and the reason I had to caveat everything above with almosts is there are occasionally counter examples and one actually happened today. In the Susan Aguas vs Marjona Savrieva fight at W50kg, Savrieva picked up a points deduction in the third round and the scores ended up being 30-26, 29-27, 28-28, 28-28 and 28-28 as a result. As explained above Aguas doesn't win the fight 2-0, the three tied judges could and should have changed the final outcome so judge 3,4 and 5 choose their winner. Judge 3 and 5 of course chose Savrieva having both given her 2 rounds. Whats strange though is on this occasion judge 4 despite giving Savrieva the first 2 rounds and Aguas only the third decided that Aguas won the fight which as I say doesn't really make much logical sense. If judge 4 believed Aguas was that dominant in the third round then that round should have been scored 10-8 by said judge. I think I have only ever seen this scenario of illogical tied decisions happen once or twice. Apologies for probably overexplaining this a bit but it is quite counterintuitive and the morale of the story is barring stupidity or a second non standard score ( second points deduction/ 10-8 round) one solitary warning despite seemingly changing the scores a lot should never change the ultimate outcome of a fight. Just finally there is funny quirk of this system where if you win a fight for 3 judges and 2 have it tied (be it a points deduction or a 10-8 round) you would win a split decision 3-0. However if you win a fight for just 1/2 judges and the other 3/4 have it tied. The tied judges are then evaluated again and if they all give you the fight you would then win a unanimous decision 5-0. Obviously this doesn't effect the result or anything but I just think its funny that potentially winning one less round for 1/2 judges in rare cases can actually turn a split decision win into a unanimous win. This happened in the Maud Van der Toorn vs Jennifer Fernadez fight where after Van der Toorn had a points deduction 1 judge had her winning (having given her all three rounds) and the other 4 judges had it tied but having given her 2 rounds gave her the fight. If she had convinced two more judges to give her all 3 rounds (Not that she deserved 3 rounds, Fernandez deservedly won round 2) she would have the fight 3-0 and it would have been a split decision and not a unanimous one.

Yeah fair enough. Its panic time now.

Relax man. You still have Anastasia Kovalchuk and Yurii Zakhareiev who were the boxers who were likely to win a quota in the first place. Sure the draw had opened up for Zamotayev with Molina losing and you have had a couple of dissapointing loses but this tournament is still young. If you end up with 2 quotas thats a good result and how the rest of it went doesn't matter that much. (Zakhareiev does still has a very tough path of course)

Well they couldn't both lose. They are having a good early battle for who can have a more disastrous tournament. Then again they both could salvage this. Hussamuddin, Nishant and Ankushita for India. Brits still have 5 or so in contention just their favourites are out.

Australia announce their squad for 2024 https://rowingaustralia.com.au/trio-of-olympic-champions-bolster-mens-eight-as-2024-team-unveiled/ Headline news is that they have opted for the Men's eight as their priority sweep boat instead of attempting to defend their Olympic title in the Men's four. Olympic champions Alexander Purnell, Spencer Turrin and Jack Hargreaves come into that boat. Paddy Holt moves from the eight into the pair with Simon Keenan. Angus Widdicombe and Tim Masters move from the eight to the four with Fergus Hamilton from the pair joining two time Olympic medallist Alexander Hill. The pair was 8th and the old four 6th at worlds so chances are the net result of all this rejigging of the pair and the four is a couple of B final appearances but maybe they can sneak into an A final. Then again obviously the idea is mostly to try an upgrade from bronze in the eight. On the sculling side of things opted to focus on the double instead of a quad despite the quad being close to Olympic qualification last year. They select a double of David Bartholot who most recently was in the quad and newcomer Marcus della Marta. They will consider and presumably select a quad for FOQR in a few weeks time. For the women their world silver medal winning pair is of course unchanged and they opt to not yet commit to selections in the eight or the four. Hard to know which one they should prioritise. The only change to their women's sculling squad seems to be Laura Gourley swapping the double for the priority quad and Harriet Hudson going the other way. The women's lightweight double sees Giorgia Miansarow replace Lucy Coleman joining Anneka Reardon although they haven't commited to sending the boat to FOQR after its 13th place finish at last year's worlds. It's competitive enough that I would absolutely send it. They also announced they would race a b squad at World cup 1.

Not sure that he will get picked again. The Brits were very liberable with changing their squad after the first qualifier with just 4 of their 10 remaining unqualified boxers after European games keeping their spot in the team albeit there was a couple of injuries. Ramtin Musah and George Crotty are both good boxers and had a case to be selected for this one. Plus two of Kelyn Cassidy, Nurbek Oralbay and Aleksei Alfiorau won't qualify here so whoever is the British selection would still be vulnerable to a bad draw plus they could of course lose to someone like Akylov again.

M57kg (4) M63.5kg (4) M80kg (4) M92kg (4) 1 Makhmud Sabyrkhan (KAZ) Ruslan Abdullaev (UZB) Turabek Khabibullaev (UZB) Lazizbek Mullojonov (UZB) 2 Luiz Oliveira (BRA) Erislandy Alvarez (CUB) Aleksei Alfiorau (AIN) (BEL) Enmanuel Reyes (ESP) 3 Carlo Paalam (PHI) Alexy de la Cruz (DOM) Nurbek Oralbay (KAZ) Narek Manasyan (ARM) 4 Yilmar Gonzalez (COL) Radoslav Rosenov (BUL) Kelyn Cassidy (IRL) Julio Castillo (ECU) 5 Artur Bazeyan (ARM) Jose Viafara (COL) Taylor Bevan (GBR) Loren Alfonso Dominguez (AZE) 6 Jude Gallagher (IRL) Bakhodur Usmonov (TJK) Robby Gonzales (USA) Aybek Oralbay (KAZ) 7 Mohamed Hussamudin (IND) Mukhamedsabyr Bazarbayuly (KAZ) Hussein Iashaish (JOR) Georgii Kushitashvili (GEO) 8 Muhammed Abu Jajeh (JOR) Somchay Wongsuwan (THA) Weerapon Jongjoho (THA) Jamar Talley (USA) 9 Umid Rustamov (AZE) Emilio Garcia (USA) Yojerlin Cesar (FRA) Berat Acar (TUR) 10 Daniyal Shahbaksh (IRN) Jesus Cova (VEN) Mindaugas Gediminas (NOR) Marlon Hurtado (COL) 11 Owain Harris-Allan (GBR) Viliam Tanko (SVK) Pylyp Akilov (HUN) Sadam Magomedov (SRB) 12 Artyush Gomstyan (GEO) Tayfur Aliyev (AZE) Rafayel Hovhannisyan (ARM) Soheb Bouafia (FRA) 13 Jaroslaw Iwanow (POL) < Danyil Zamorylo (UKR) Gazimagomed Jalidov (ESP) Sanjeet Kumar (IND) 14 Munarbek Seitbek Uulu (KGZ) Patris Mughalzai (GBR) Hector Aguiire (MEX) Vagkan Nanitzanian (GRE) 15 Jose de los Santos (DOM) Gianluigi Malanga (ITA) Andrei Arodoaie (ROU) Carlos Rodriguez (MEX) 16 Asror Vokhidov (TJK) Samuel Takyi (GHA) Kevin Schumann (GER) Patrick Brown (GBR) 17 Sarawet Sukthet (THA) Salvador Flores (ESP) Omurbek Bekzhigit Uulu (KGZ) Marko Calic (CRO) 18 Yoel Finol (VEN) Louis Richarno Colin (MRI) Juan Ortiz (COL) Adrian Paoletti (AUS) 19 Murat Yildirim (GER) Yuri Falcao dos Reis (BRA) Abraham Buonnarigo (ARG) Jakkapong Yomkhot (THA) 20 Batuhan Ciftci (TUR) Abdelhaq Nadir (MOR) Georgii Gutsaev (GEO) Mateusz Bereznicki (POL) 21 Jean Caicedo (ECU) Assan Hansen (GER) Keven Beausejour (CAN) Erkin Adylbek Uulu (KGZ) 22 Andrey Bonilla (MEX) Aleksej Sendrik (SRB) Gradus Kraus (NED) Victor Schelstraete (BEL) 23 Ping Lyu (CHN) Ali Habibanezhed (IRN) Kim Jin-jea (KOR) Yan Zak (ISR) < 24 Lucas Fernandez (URU) Alexandru Paraschiv (MDA) Gebhard Ipinge (NAM) Tyron Amo (GER) 25 Fikremariyam Leta (ETH) Shiva Thapa (IND) Chahar Lakshya (IND) Serhii Horskov (UKR) 26 Francisco Iozia (ITA) Mirzokhid Imamnazarov (KGZ) Nikita Nystedt (FIN) Daniel Guzman (DOM) 27 Van Duong Nguyen (VIE) Mizan Aykol (TUR) Kristyan Nikolov (BUL) Odai Al-Hindawi (JOR) 28 Soulaimane Samghouli (MOR) Bartlomiej Roskowicz (POL) Carlos Gongora (ECU) Jung Ha-Neul (KOR) 29 Oleh Chuliacheiev (UKR) Obada Al Kasbeh (JOR) Kaan Aykutsun (TUR) Ayoub Maanni (MOR) 30 Shukur Ovezov (TKM) Ahmad Shtiwi (ISR) Meysam Gheslaghi (IRN) Andrei Zaplitnii (MDA)

W54kg (4) W66kg (4) W75kg (4) 1 Huang Hsiao-wen (TPE) Chen Nien-chen (TPE) Cindy Ngamba (REF) 2 Jutamas Jitpong (THA) Camila Camilo (COL) Elzbieta Wojcik (POL) 3 Anastasia Kovalchuk (UKR) Aneta Rygielska (POL) Citlalli Ortiz (MEX) 4 Jennifer Lehane (IRL) Stefanie von Berge (GER) Naomi Graham (USA) 5 Zhaina Shekerbekova (KAZ) > Grainne Walsh (IRL) Busra Isildar (TUR) 6 Sirine Charaabi (ITA) Stephanie Pineiro (PUR) Veronika Nakota (HUN) 7 Sandra Drabik (POL) > Navbakhor Khamidova (UZB) Sunniva Hofstad (NOR) 8 Sara Cirkovic (SRB) Emilie Sonvico (FRA) Baison Manikon (THA) 9 Johana Gomez (VEN) Ani Hovsepyan (ARM) Karolina Makhno (UKR) 10 Romane Moulai (FRA) Angela Carini (ITA) Valentina Khalzova (KAZ) 11 Thi Kim Anh Vo (VIE) Milena Matovic (SRB) Hergie Bacyadan (PHI) 12 Scarlett Delgado (CAN) Ankushita Boro (IND) Chantelle Reid (GBR) 13 Shera Mae Patricio (USA) Ivanusa Gomes Moreira (CPV) Love Holgersson (SWE) 14 Sofia Robles (ARG) Maria Moronta (DOM) Gabriele Stonkute (LTU) 15 Melissa Mortensen (DEN) Anastasia Chernokolenko (UKR) Melissa Gemini (ITA) 16 Marta Lopez Del Arbol (ESP) Sara Kali (CAN) Vivianne Pereira (BRA) 17 Mikoto Harada (JAP) Krista Kovalainen (FIN) Keidy Guevara (VEN) 18 Estefani Almanzar (DOM) Saida Lahmidi (MOR) Patricia Mbata (NGR) 19 Aikaterini Koutsogeorgopoulou (GRE) Luna Beeloo (NED) Eseta Flint (TGA) 20 Claudine Veloso (PHI) Natalya Bogdanova (KAZ) Monika Langerova (CZE) 21 Sara Svennson (SWE) Jessica Triebelova (SVK) Elizabeth Andiego (KEN) 22 Im Aeji (KOR) Lorena Balbuena (ARG) Aziza Zokirova (UZB) 23 Asya Ari (GER) Emily Nakalema (UGA) Seong Su-yeon (KOR) 24 Alondra Sanchez (MEX) Mariana Soto (ESP) Vasiliki Stavridou (GRE) 25 Zeynab Rahimova (AZE) Yuliannys Alvarez (VEN) Luisa Vasquez (COL) 26 Tatevik Khachatryan (ARM) Suzette Ramirez (MEX) Molka Ben Mabrouk (TUN) 27 Emma Jokiaho (FIN) Shahla Allahverdiyeva (AZE) Ingrith Maldonado (ECU) 28 Hanna Lakotar (HUN) Seon Su-jin (KOR) Diem Quynh Luu (VIE) 29 Denisse Bravo (CHI) Andra Crinuta Sebe (ROU) Kimberly Gittens (BAR) 30 Iulia Coroli (MDA) Kitija Zaberga (LAT) Angel Eyed George (TTO)

Rank Country Projected qualifiers Already qualified Projected Total 1 Kazakhstan 6 2 8 2 Uzbekistan 4 4 8 2 Poland 4 0 4 4 Thailand 3 4 7 4 Colombia 3 3 6 4 Spain 3 2 5 4 Ukraine 3 1 4 8 USA 2 5 7 8 Chinese Taipei 2 4 6 8 Cuba 2 3 5 8 Great Britain and NI 2 3 5 8 Philippines 2 1 3 13 Brazil 1 9 10 13 Ireland 1 5 6 13 India 1 4 5 13 Japan 1 2 3 13 Mexico 1 2 3 13 Serbia 1 2 3 13 Croatia 1 1 2 13 Dominican Republic 1 1 2 13 Armenia 1 0 1 13 Refugee team 1 0 1 13 South Korea 1 0 1 13 Vietnam 1 0 1 13 AIN (Belarus) 1 0 1 26 Australia 0 12 12 26 China 0 7 7 26 France 0 7 7 26 Turkey 0 6 6 26 Algeria 0 5 5 26 Italy 0 4 4 26 Bulgaria 0 3 3 26 Egypt 0 3 3 26 Morocco 0 3 3 26 Nigeria 0 3 3 26 Azerbaijan 0 2 2 26 Belgium 0 2 2 26 Canada 0 2 2 26 Ecuador 0 2 2 26 Hungary 0 2 2 26 Mongolia 0 2 2 26 North Korea 0 2 2 26 Tajikistan 0 2 2 26 Denmark 0 1 1 26 DR Congo 0 1 1 26 Georgia 0 1 1 26 Mozambique 0 1 1 26 Panama 0 1 1 26 Puerto Rico 0 1 1 26 Romania 0 1 1 26 Samoa 0 1 1 26 Sweden 0 1 1 26 Tunisia 0 1 1 26 Venezuela 0 1 1 26 Zambia 0 1 1 This table would have been more useful pre tournament as I think 2 of my picks have already being knocked out. I have this obviously being profitable for Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan after underwhelming Asian games performances and have them moving to joint 3rd on the total number of qualifiers list. Ukraine and Poland should recover from poor European performances here although I would have expected to have GB in this category too but I have them only taking 2 quotas which is still decent just not where they expect themselves to be. Thailand, Colombia, USA and Spain (Molina lost though so one is already gone) all add to already good continental totals. Ireland, Italy India, Japan, Armenia, France and Georgia would all be dissapointed not to add more to their quotas but all are capable of outperforming this projection. I think Germany, Ghana and the Netherlands are probably the most notable countries that would still not have a quota. Germany could easily get one here I just didn't personally didn't pick Tiafack or Von Berge. Interestingly I have Asia picking up 21 quotas Europe 18 (counting Ngamba) and 10 for the Americas. Unfortunately none for Africa although that is largely because a lot of the best boxers aren't competing here I would assume predominantly for funding reasons. Mozambique, Zambia and DR Congo to name a few could all have been in contention for quotas here.

W66kg Bracket 1 My Pick- Navbakhor Khamidova (7) , Other contenders- Emilie Sonvico (8) , Ani Hovsepyan (9) , Ankushita Boro (12) , Maria Moronta (14) . I tend to regard Emilie Sonvico as a good guage for this weightclass. If you're good you will beat her, If you're not you won't. She faces Ankushita Boro in the first round. Ankushita replaces Arundhati Choudhary in the Indian team who beat Sonvico at Strandja so we will get an immediate guage on if they got their selection right. Luna Beeloo (19) awaits the winner before a "semi final" against Navbakhor Khamidova. Khamidova has beaten Ankushita before and would also be the favourite against Sonvico. The other half of the bracket will be decided in a "quarter final" between Ani Hovsepyan who moves down from middleweight and Olympian Maria Moronta. Both are more natural light-middleweights than welterweights. Hovsepyan lost on the previous occasion she matched up with Khamidova and I suspect Moronta would struggle too. Bracket 2 My Pick- Nien Chin Chen (1) , Other contenders- Milena Matovic (11) , Anastasia Chernokolenko (15) . Should be pretty straightforward this one. Nien Chin Chen has a couple of fairly straightforward fights against Jessica Triebelova (21) and either Krista Kovalainen (17) or Saida Lahmidi (18) . Meanwhile another of the considerable number who have move down from 75kg Anastasia Chernokolenko has a tough ask to beat Milena Matovic. (The 75kg to 66kg jump isn't as big as you might think as a lot of the top middleweights box close to 70kg than 75kg.) The winner would likely face Marianna Soto (24) . Chen should comfortably win but you never know. Bracket 3 My Pick- Camila Camilo (2) , Other contenders- Angela Carini (10) , Ivanusa Moreira (13) , Sara Kali (16) . This should be Camila Camilo's quota to lose but she is young and still fairly inexperienced. She will be tested straight off the bat against Tokyo Olympian Angela Carini who interestingly comes back into the Italian team over Assunta Canfora who "lost" in the most bizarre RSC decision possibly ever against Camilo at last years worlds. The Italians will be out for retribution here. Whoever wins that fight would likely go on to meet Sara Kali in a "semi final" who not for the first time managed to impressivley beat 2022 world silver medallist Charlie Cavanagh CAN at Canadian trials. Unfortunately you have to go back to 2017 to find a win for her against non Canadian opposition. Ivanusa Moreira always seems to get a favourable draw for her first couple of fights. Here she meets Emily Nakalema (23) UGA who did beat her back in the Tokyo qualification tournament and likely Yulianny Alvarez (25) VEN. Nakalema or Moreira could threaten Camilo or Carini but I suspect Camilo will get the job done here. Bracket 4 My Pick- Aneta Rygielska (3) , Other contenders- Stefanie Von Berge (4) , Grainne Walsh (5) , Stephanie Pineiro (6) . Far and away the toughest bracket here. First up Aneta Rygielska will be tested against Stephanie Pineiro who is good but not that good. Rygielska then meets Seon Su-jin (28) followed by the winner of Natalya Bogdonava (20) vs Loren Balbuena (22) who strangely moved down from middleweight to replace Lucia Noelia Perez . On the other side of the draw we see 2022 European champion Stefanie Von Berge meet controversial Irish selection Grainne Walsh. Amy Broadhurst was injured during the selection process but may have been available here and that still leaves 2022 70kg world champion Lisa O'Rourke who beat Walsh in Poland last November. It is a strange pick but make no mistake Walsh is a very good boxer and multi European medallist, she just doesn't have the same Olympic medal threat as the other 2 well certainly not as much of a medal hope as Broadhurst. Anyway, this should be a very good fight but I would lean towards Walsh winning. (I ranked them the other way around though before they drew eachother so I clearly amn't sure). Anyway, whether it is Walsh or Von berge, Rygielska has won and lost against both of them in this Olympic cycle. I think Rygielska is the most reliable but any of the three of them could take the quota here. W75kg Only thirty entries so surprisingly there are 2 boxers who start the tournament just 2 fights away from a quota. Bracket 1 My Pick- Cindy Ngamba (1) , Other contenders- Busra Isildar (5) , Veronkia Nakota (6) , Naomi Graham (4) . Strong first bracket with 5 of my top 10 in the rankings all here especially given the lack of depth in this weightclass. Cindy Ngamba had an impressive GB open in January but is yet to break through with a major medal albeit her loses have come against elite opposition. She has a very tough path here though with the powerful but past her best Naomi Graham. We then shift to the other end of the age bracket with 2022 70kg youth world champion Veronika Nakota who already has a couple of impressive results at senior level. On the other side of the draw Busra Isildar meets one time world champion (2016) Valentina Khalzova KAZ. The likely outcome is a qualifying fight between Ngamba and Isildar which should be a fight worthy of an Olympic quota. Bracket 2 My Pick- Baison Manikon (8) , Other contenders- Karolina Makhno (9) , Hergie Bacyadan (11) , Chantelle Reid (12) . The draw has opened up for 2022 European under 22 champion Karolina Makhno although that isn't to say she won't be tested. At the top of this bracket Asian bronze medallist Baison Manikon who will meet Makhno in a "semi final". That fight could go either way. Meanwhile Hergie Bacyadan will meet Chantelle Reid provided Bacyadan can beat Viviane Pereira . Chantelle Reid is a strange selection by the British and I think Kerry Davis who she replaced would have qualified from this bracket. I have Bacyadan slightly ahead of Reid but we shall see. If Makhno could come through Manikon and Bacyadan/ Reid they would be the best two wins of her career. I'm going to pick the in form Manikon though. (If you couldn't tell, yes I changed my pick halfway through writing this) Bracket 3 My Pick- Citlalli Ortiz (3) , Other contenders- Sunniva Hofstad (7) , Love Holgersson (13) , Gabriele Stonkute (14) . Hmm a very northern European heavy bracket. 2022 81kg world champion Gabriele Stonkute meets Elizabeth Andiego (21) in her first fight before matching up against Sunniva Hofstad in the second round. There one previous meeting went Stonkute's way although it was a split decision and in Lithuania. The other side of the draw sees Citlalli Ortiz meet the experienced and very tall Love Holgersson. I mention the height thing because Ortiz is very short for a middleweight and will struggle reach wise. Then again if she can get on the inside she should win. Ortiz vs Hofstad or possibly Stonkute should be a decent fight but I am backing the Mexican. Bracket 4 My Pick- Elzbieta Wojcik (2) , Other contenders- Melissa Gemini (15) . Draw could not have been kinder to Elzbieta Wojcik. She does have to come through against Melissa Gemini. They uhm drew at an Italy vs Poland international last year although presumably with Italian judges. One of Eseta Flint (19) , Patricia Mbata (18) , Keidy Guevara (17) and Monika Langerova (20) will meet Wojcik in a qualifying fight. All four of them are fairly evenly matched but won't threaten Wojcik

Predictions part 4 W50,W57,M51,M71,M92+ bottom page 5/ page 6 in that order W54,W60 on page 9 M57,M80 on page 11 Top 30 rankings per weightclass on the boxing Olympic rankings thread. Right finally after many many hours and only three boxing sessions late but with every individual weight class in time of course these predictions are done. They better end up being accurate enough or I will be fuming. Honestly though with the number of entries if I hit over 50% we should be doing ok 60% would be great. M63.5kg Bracket 1 My pick- Somchay Wongsuwan (8) , Other contenders- Jose Viafara (5) , Jesus Cova (10) , Viliam Tanko (11) , Gianluigi Malanga (15) . A very open draw here with some quality first round matchups Jesus Cova meets Viliam Tanko and Jose Viafara meets home boxer Gianluigi Malanga. The two south americans are both stong boxers but Malanga did beat Viafara back in 2021 and I think Tanko will get the better of Cova. Watch both of those picks be wrong. The winner of Tanko vs Cova will then face Somchay Wongsuwan. Wongsuwan is a talented boxer but picking him over 2022 Asian 67kg champion Bunjong Sinsiri is bizarre and could cost them a quota. The winner of that fight should then meet the victor of Malanga va Viafara in a "semi final" effectively for the quota. One of Bartlomiej Roskowicz (28) , Mizan Aykol (27) or Saparmyrat Odajev (33) will be the matchup in the qualifying fight but won't pose any threat. Honestly you could pick a number between 1 and 5 here to decide this. I'll reluctantly pick Wongsuwan but I don't know. Bracket 2 My pick- Alexy de la Cruz (3) , Other contenders- Yuri Falcao (19) , Salvador Flores (17) , Assan Hansen (21) . The draw would have struggled to be kinder to Alexy de la Cruz after he kind of butchered it against Miguel Ramirez at Panams. His toughest fight may well be his first one against Yuri Falcao before fights against Obada al Kasbeh (29) and then probably Joshua Tukamuhebwa (31) . In the other half of the bracket Salvador Flores fights Ali Qasim al Sarray (32) and Assan Hansen faces Alexandru Paraschiv (24) or Wang Xiangyang (NR) . Hansen and Flores should come through to set up a finely balanced "semi final". Neither are likely to push de la Cruz. Bracket 3 My pick- Ruslan Abdullaev (1) , Other contenders- Radoslav Rosenov (4) , Mukhamedsabyr Bazarbay Uulu (7) . This bracket will produce some good fights. At the top 2023 world champion Ruslan Abdullaev faces Shiva Thapa (25) in his opening fight followed by a very easy fight and then likely meets Mirzokhid Imamnazarov (26) in a "semi final". Meanwhile Radoslav Rosenov and new and improved Kazakh selection Mukhamedsabyr Bazarbay Uulu who plugs a whole in what was by far their weakest men's weightclass meet in their respective second bouts. For me Rosenov edges out Bazarbay Uulu. Danylo Zamorylo (13) or Aleksej Sendrik (22) would then be next opposition ahead of meeting Abdullaev. Abdullaev may not be the favourite for gold in Paris but he is still a world class operator and should beat his opponent here. Bracket 4 My pick- Erislandy Alverez (2) , Other contenders- Bakhodur Usmonov (6) , Emilio Garcia (9) . 60kg world silver medallist Erislandy Alvarez correctly gets selected over multi Olympic medallist Lazaro Alvarez (no relation). He opens his account with a tough fight against Emilio Garcia before his toughest challenge against Bakhodur Usmonov in the following round provided Usmonov can beat the experienced Louis Richarno Colin (18) . Usmonov vs Alvarez could be one of the fights of the tournament but it is tough to pick against the Cuban. The other half of the bracket likely Tayfur Aliyev (12) meet Tokyo featherweight bronze medallist Samuel Takyi (16) with the winner likely facing Patris Mughalzai (14) who replaces the injured Reese Lynch . Any of the three could come through but none are in the same tier as Alvarez or Usmonov. I'm going to guess Takyi ends up being Alvarez' quota match opponent M92kg Bracket 1 My pick- Lazizbek Mullojonov (1) , Other contenders- Georgi Kushitashvili (7) , Berat Acar (9) . Mullojonov deserved to qualify at Asian games but has a tricky enough path to secure his quota here albeit he won't be tested at all until qualification is on the line. On the other side of the bracket we have two fascinating opening round fights with Georgii Kushitashvili who looks much more comfortable at 92kg than 80kg meeting Berat Acar and in form Vagkan Nanitzanian (14) matching up with the one remaining unqualified Australian Adrian Paoletti (18) . Kushitashvili and Nanitzanian should be slight favourites and would then face Victor Schelstraete (22) and Marko Calic (17) respectively. If they come through those tests we would then get a rematch of the recent Strandja final which Kushitashvili won. Kushitashvili would be a tough opponent for Mullojonov but you would have to back Mullojonov's power. Bracket 2 My pick- Enmanuel Reyes (2) , Other contenders- Loren Alfonso Dominguez (5) , Sadam Magomedov (11) . An interestingly poised bracket with a heavyweight matchup between Enmanuel Reys and Loren Alfonso Dominguez two former Cubans competing against eachother for 2 countries that a very much not Cuba. Alfonso Domniguez does have to beat Yan Zak (23) first who shockingly beat him at European games. The winner would then face Carlos Rodriguez (15) who could provide a tricky test. At the bottom of the bracket Experienced Sadam Magomedov faces Tyron Amo (24) (who strangely is here ahead of Alexander Okafor ) followed by the winner of Erkin Adylbek Uulu (21) and 2022 86kg Asian champion Jakkapong Yomkhot (19) . If Magomedov does indeed come through Reyes has beaten him before. I trust Reyes to produce when it counts more than Alfonso Dominguez so I think he gets the quota here. Bracket 3 My pick- Aibek Oralbay (6) , Other contenders- Narek Manasyan (3) , Julio Castillo (4) , Jamar Talley (8) . A fascinatingly balanced draw with likely "semi finals" in Narek Manasyan vs Jamar Talley and Aybek Oralbay vs Julio Castillo with only Sanjeet (13) who faces 2022 Asian champion Oralbay (who regains the Kazakh number 1 spot at this weightclass). Both of the above fights should be terrific but I think Manasyan will be slightly too good for the still inexperience Talley and Oralbay may deny Castillo this shot at a third Olympics. Oralbay vs Manasyan could then legitimately go either way but I'm going to pick Oralbay despite ranking him lower. Bracket 4 My pick- Marlon Hurtado (10) , Other contenders- Soheb Bouafia (12) , Patrick Brown (16) . With so many quality fights above we were always going to end up with a lower quality bracket albeit one with still some interesting fights. Surprise British selection Patrick Brown has a very easy path to a quota fight. Marlon Hurtado has to go through Mateusz Bereznicki (20) and Soheb Bouafia (12) . The young Colombian will be tested against Bouafia and Brown and may prove a misguided pick but I'm going to back the young boxer here.