Ogreman

M92+kg Bracket 3 My pick- Fernando Arzola (2) , Other contenders- Danabieke Bayikewuzi (4) , Omar Shiha (12) . This one should be fairly clear cut. Arzola has an awkward opening fight against Diarga Balde (16) before facing his main rival for the quota Danabieke Bayikewuzi. He beat Bayikewuzi comfortably at worlds last year. Meanwhile Omar Shiha just has to come through against Mohamed Firisse (30) , Muhammad Abroridinov (27) and probably Thomas Mboua (28) . Shiha occasionally springs a surprise but this is very much Arzola's to lose. Bracket 4 My pick- Davit Chaloyan (6) , Other contenders- Djamili Aboudou Moindze (7) , Yordan Hernandez (9) . This is a close one. Davit Chaloyan has a very simple path to a qualifying fight with just Gerlon Congo (18) in his path. Djamili Aboudou Moindze has a tougher route needing to beat Yordan Hernandez and one of Iman Ramazenpour (25) or Keddy Agnes (19) . Chaloyan beat Aboudou Moindze when they met in 2022 although their recent form is pretty similar. This one could go either way. W51kg Bracket 1 My pick- Alua Balkibekova (6) , Other Contenders- Maxi Kloetzer (15) , Anush Grigoryan (16) . The draw has really opened up for Alua Balkibekova who gets picked ahead of Nazym Kyzaibay . She has a bye before likely facing Aylin Jamez (27) followed by Anush Grigoryan or the unknown Jung Joo-Hyung (20) . Maxi Kloetzer should await in a qualifying fight with her toughest test being either against Rita Soares (25) or Guo Yi Xuan (23) neither of which should cause her any trouble. Bracket 2 My pick- Thi Tham Nguyen (1) , Other Contenders- Sabina Bobokulova (3) , Daina Moorehouse (4) , Rinka Kinoshita (8), Aldana Florencia Lopez (12) , Savannah Stubley (13) . By far the toughest bracket and a difficult one to call Thi Tham Nguyen meets Daina Moorehouse in what should be one of the most interesting fights in the division. The winner gets rewarded with a fight against Tayonis Cedeno (19) before another mouthwatering matchup with Sabina Bobokulova who recently won Strandja beating Asian champion Wu Yu and world champion Nikhat Zareen albeit both on questionable split decisions. I have no idea which of Nguyen, Moorehouse or Bobokulova will come through. The other side of the draw isn't easy either Aldana Florencia Lopez has a rematch from panam games with Ingrid Gomez (17) while Rinka Kinoshita who moves down from bantamweight to replace the presumably injured Tsukimi Namiki has a straightforward fight against Nicole Durikova before another interesting fight against Savannah Stubley who regains her spot as the top British flyweight. Its unlikely that Stubley, Kinoshita or Lopez will beat whoever comes through the top half but it still should be a quality decider. Bracket 3 My pick- Tetiana Kob (5) , Other contenders- Zlatislava Chukanova (10) , Aira Villegas (11) . The draw has been fairly kind to the uber experienced former European champion Tetiana Kob. Her first fight against Zlatislava Chukanova may prove her toughest fight with Nina Radovanovic (14) likely waiting in effectively a semi final. Aira Villegas meanwhile has to navigate fights against Mckenzie Wright (22) and probably Sofie Rosshaug (21). She comes into the tournament in good form with a couple of impressive wins at the BOXAM tournament in Spain in January but is still unlikely to beat Kob. Bracket 4 My pick- Natalia Kuczewska (7) , Other contenders- Ingrit Valencia Victoria (2), Pihla Kaivo-Oja (9) . An interesting youth vs experience battle in the fourth bracket. Multi-time world medallist Ingrit Valencia Victoria gets a favourable but far from guaranteed draw which sees her face Antonia Giannakopoulou (28) before a battle with the inconsistent Pihla Kaivo-Oja. Susan Aguas (18) provides the penultimate test before a qualifying fight against Natalia Kuczewska who faces a whole lot of nothing on her side of the bracket. Kuczewska is very inexperienced but has produced some impressive wins of late and absolutely is capable of beating Valencia. I am going to back the underdog here. W57kg Only the top two to qualify here so just 2 brackets instead of 4. It is strange that there are 2 quotas here and 4 at the second one. They could just have added the host quota that France didn't need here instead of at the second qualifying tournament. Additionally, with the exception of Tokyo silver medallist Nesthy Petecio all of the top boxers in the world have already qualified so the field isn't very strong here. Bracket 1 My pick- Nesthy Petecio (1) , Other contenders- Jennifer Fernandez (2) , Elis Glynn (3) , Xu Zichun (5) , Maud Van der Toorn (7) . Unfortunately a very uneven draw between the top and bottom brackets. The top half of this bracket sees Nesthy Petecio have a couple of straightforward fights against Andela Brankovic (25) and Claudia Nechita (15) before a "semi final" against the winner of Jennifer Fernandez an 2022 60kg youth world champion Maud Van der Toorn. The bottom half of the top bracket sees a couple of intersting fights with 60kg Olympian Esra Yildiz (10) facing former bantamweight Bojana Gojkovic (8) with the winner meeting Preedakmon Tintabthai (18) . Elise Glynn will have an interesting fight against Xu Zichun provided Xu can beat Nikolina Cacic (14) . Petecio should be a level above all of her opposition here. Bracket 2 My pick- Julia Szerezmeta (4) , Other contenders- Vilma Viitanenen (6) , Satsuki Yoshizawa (9) , Marie Al-Ahmadieh (12) , Alyssa Mendoza (13) . The second half of this draw is much weaker than the first but still some interesting fights. Julia Szerezmeta should at least reach a "semi final" with just the young Anastasia Molochko (11) in her path. There she will likely meet Vilma Viitanen provided Viitanen can beat Sitora Turdibekova (17) and Szabina Szucs (19) . The bottom half of this bracket sees an interesting early fight between Satsuki Yoshizawa and Alyssa Mendoza before a likely "semi final" for the winner against Marie Al-Ahmadieh provided she can navigate the awkward Olga Papadatou (16) . On paper this will come down to the Szeremeta vs Viitanen fight which Szeremeta took on a split decision at Europeans but any of Yoshizawa, Al-Ahmadieh or Mendoza could pose a threat in the qualifying matchup.

Right, let's have a go at predicting these. The lack of a stream and some tough Irish draws have dampened my excitement for this competition considerably but sure look. I'll post an updated rankings for the top 30 per weightclass who are competing here and I'll include where I rank each boxer in my analysis. This is the first big test of their accuracy as well. Draws here are unseeded like the other qualifying competitions and the competition ends in every weightclass once qualification has been decided so with the exception of W57kg and W60kg there are effectively four separate competitions for a quota spot in each weightclass. Obviously majority of countries are here but some exceptions include Mongolia, North Korea and DR Congo. Also going to have to do this in multiple parts based on which weightclasses start on day one because doing these in one night is tough. (Also the 75 emoji limit is giving me trouble) M51kg Bracket 1 My pick- Tomoya Tsuboi (3) , Other contenders- Yuberjen Martinez (6) , Alejandro Claro (12) , Ari Bonilla (13) . I'm not the biggest fan of Tomoya Tsuboi's style but he should start as the favourite for the quota here against a very Americas heavy bracket. He has a straightforward first fight before a likely clash of styles with the front foot Yuberjen Martinez provided Martinez beat Keymberth Gonzalez (32) . The other side of the bracket sees a couple of potentially intriguing (quarter finals) with Alejandro Claro Fis likely meeting Omid Ahmadisafa (22) who has a couple of impressive wins on his resume and 2022 youth world champion Ari Bonilla meeting Luis Delgado (26) . Claro should come through though which would set up a fight with Tsuboi for the Olympic quota in a fight I wouldn't expect to be a classic. Bracket 2 My pick- Roscoe Hill (2) , Other contender- Deepak Bhoria (4). Some interesting fights here but this will almost certainly end up being Hill vs Deepak for the quota. Deepak has the tougher path meeting Nijat Huseynov (19) , Sakhil Alekhverdovi (16) and Rudolf Garboyan (21) although he should be comfortably too good for all of them. Hill won't be tested until his third fight against Jiamao Zhang (17) . Hill vs Deepak should a tremendous fight and will be one of the few we will actually get to watch. I lean towards Hill but it will almost certainly be very close. Bracket 3 My pick- Martin Molina (5) , Other contenders- Po Wei Tu (11) , Kim In-Kyu (15) , Ramon Nicanor Quiroga (18) , Dmytro Zamotayev (14) . I know I have him pretty high in my rankings but I didn't really expect to be picking Martin Molina for a quota here and despite his favourable draw, I still wouldn't entirely trust him. He has a straightforward opening fight before meeting Kim In-Kyu who seemingly hasn't boxed internationally since 2021 but had some impressive results in the previous Olympic cycle. Po Wei Tu should then await in effectively a semi final as long as he can beat Theophilus Allotey (33) . The bottom half of the draw sees Ramon Nicanor Quiroga and Dmytro Zamotayev have to navigate tough early fights against Nurzhigit Diushebaev (28) and Juanma Lopez (27) respectively. I wouldn't be surprised to see an upset here, not sure who it is coming from though. Bracket 4 My pick- Saken Bibossinov (1) , Other contenders- Kiaran MacDonald (7) , Federico Serra (8) , Roger Ladon (9) , Istvan Szaka (10) . Well after a couple of lighter draws, that was going to leave some serious talent in the bottom bracket. There are two heavyweight first round fights with Kiaran MacDonald meeting Istvan Szaka and Federico Serra meeting Roger Ladon. The respective winners then have a slightly more straightforward fight before meeting eachother. Serra has had a couple of big wins since losing in a quota fight to Samet Gumus at European games and being at home might be the slight favourite to come through but MacDonald did beat him at 2022 Europeans. Meanwhile Bibbosinov shouldn't have much trouble reaching the quota fight with his toughest fight likely to be against the winner of Cosmin Girleanu (19) vs Azat Makhmetov (23) . The 2022 world champion should book his Olympic spot here but he will be tested whoever he ends up meeting in the quota fight. M71kg Bracket 1 My pick- Aidan Walsh (4) , Other contenders- Wanderson de Oliveira (9) , Rami Kiwan (14). Ah the extremely rare last 128 fights, Draw sheet doesn't even fit on one page. Anyway, the one draw where things broke nicely for the Irish boxers. There isn't a ton to say here world bronze medallist Wanderson and Olympic bronze medallist Aidan Walsh meet in their second fight. Whoever wins becomes the massive favourite for the quota and should cruise to a qualifying fight. Rami Kiwan meets Merven Clair (24) and the winner of that should end up facing Syrgak Abdyzhapar Uulu (25) in a semi final before probably losing to Walsh or Wanderson. I am pretty confident Aidan Walsh should come through to win here. Bracket 2 My pick- Yurii Zakhareiev (1) , Other contenders- Asadkhuja Muydhinkhujaev (3) , Zeyad Eashash (7) , Magomed Schachidov (8) . This is a tricky bracket with two world champions. 2023 world champion at 67kg Asadkhuja Muydhinkhujaev (although there was a bit of a question mark over whether he should be selected ahead of Khavasbek Asadullaev ) starts off with a straightforward fight but will be severely tested against Magomed Schachidov in his second fight. Yurii Zakhareiev meanwhile also has an interesting second fight against either Rattapol Kadamduan (23) or Alexander Rangel (27) who are both unknown quantities. Muydhinkhujaev and Zakhareiev (jesus, they couldn't have made their names much trickier to type could they?) would then meet in a "semi final". The bottom half of the draw sees Zeyad Eashash have the navigate a couple of tough fights against former Russian Shokhobzhon Shukurov (30) and the winner of Bruno Fernandes de Barros (22) vs Ronald Chavez Jr (32) . Navigating tricky but winnable fights is not something Eashash always manages to do. He would then face Jorge Cuellar (11) who doesn't really pose the threat that typically accompanies a Cuban flag. Eashash could easily lose his first fight or beat one of the world champions and pick up the quota. I think a still improving Zakhareiev is the horse to back here. Bracket 3 My pick- Aslanbek Shymbergenov (2) , Other contenders- Damian Durkacz (10) . I am skeptical about 2023 world champion Aslanbek Shymbergenov's medal prospects for the Olympics but the draw was kind to him and even if it wasn't he should still qualify. His toughest fight will likely be his second one against Damian Durkacz who has an ability box up and well also down to the quality of his opponent. Durkacz does have to navigate an opening fight against Angel Llanos (17) . Bayramdurdy Nurmuhammedov (15) likely awaits Shymbergenov if Nurmuhammedov can beat Virgilio de los Santos (33) . The bottom half of the bracket should see an interesting "semi final" between Sarkhan Aliyev (13) and Sergio Martinez (21) although Aliyev does have to beat Junior Petanqui (20) to get that far. Bracket 4 My pick- Nishant Dev (6) , Other contenders- Omari Jones (5) , Lewis Richardson (12) . Omari Jones has a fairly straightforward path to a qualifying fight with just his opening bout against Tokyo Olympian Aliaksandr Radzionau (19) who is one of just 2 Belarussian neutral athletes here. There he should face the winner of Nishant Dev vs 2022 European 75kg silver medallist Lewis Richardson. Richardson came somewhat out of nowhere to get the British spot ahead of Harris Akbar and Garan Croft. I have Omari Jones ahead of Nishant in my rankings but I feel like stylistically this fight suits Nishant so I'm going to pick him. M92+kg Bracket 1 My pick- Ayoub Ghadfa el Drissi (3) , Other contenders- Danis Latypov (10) , Diego Lenzi (11) , Ali Feliz (15) . The draw kind of opened of for Ayoub Ghadfa to make his second Olympics. His "semi final" fight against home and in form Diego Lenzi should be interesting. On the other side of the bracket should see American based Ali Feliz face off against Danis Latypov provided Feliz can come through against the inexperienced Martin McDonagh (22). There isn't all that much between Ghadfa, Latypov and Lenzi. Bracket 2 My pick- Luka Pratljacic (5) , Other contenders- Nelvie Tiafack (1) , Christian Salcedo (8) . This is a pretty tough bracket. Dusan Veletic (14) faces off against Christian Salcedo in a fight that will test the Colombian. He should make it through his subsequent fight to set up a "semi final" against the winner of Luka Pratljacic (who impressively beat Marko Milun to get selected) and Dmytro Lovchynskyi (13). Meanwhile former European champion Nelvie Tiafack was somewhat fortunate to keep his spot in the German selection ahead of the up and coming Nikita Putilov (for me they should have picked Putilov). His toughest fight before the qualifying fight is likely to be against Narender Berwal (17). Tiafack's recent form has not been great so I'm going to pick Pratljacic here although I certainly would not rule out Salcedo.

[hide] "Captain"-points - Explained: Each user can select up to 5 "captains" for this contest. Each "captain" will double its' points for his, her's or the team's event. Each user will have to mark their "captains" for each event with an "*". Event & Date Athletes Gold Silver Bronze Women's Shot Put Day 1 March 1st 2024 Sarah Mitton x Yemisi Ogunleye Julia Ritter Danniel Thomas-Dodd Jessica Schilder x Jorinde Van Klinken Maddison-Lee Wesche Jessica Inchude Axelina Johansson Fanny Roos Maggie Ewen Chase Jackson x Any Other Athlete Women's High Jump Day 1 March 1st 2024 Nicola Olyslagers x Eleanor Patterson Christina Honsel Morgan Lake Tatiana Gusin Nadezhda Dubovitskaya Daniela Stanciu Angela Topic x Lia Apostolovski Iryna Gerashchenko Yaroslava Mahuchikh x Vashti Cunningham Any Other Athlete Men's Shot Put Day 1 March 1st 2024 Darlan Romani Filip Mihaljevic Tomas Stanek Leonardo Fabbri x Zane Weir Rajindra Campbell Bob Bertemes Jacko Gill Tom Walsh x Ryan Crouser x* Joe Kovacs Any Other Athlete Women's Pentathlon Day 1 March 1st 2024 Verena Mayr Noor Vidts x Jana Koscak Saga Vanninen x Xenia Krizsan Szabina Szucs Sveva Gerevini Sofie Dokter Maria Vicente x Bianca Salming Yuliya Loban Chari Hawkins Any Other Athlete Men's 60m Day 1 March 1st 2024 Mario Burke Malachi Murray Arthur Cisse Jeremiah Azu Chituru Ali Samuele Ceccarelli Ackeem Blake x Rohan Watson Ferdinand Omanyala x Emmanuel Matadi Favour Oghene Tejiri Ashe Henrik Larsson Christian Coleman Noah Lyles x Any Other Athlete Men's Long Jump Day 2 March 2nd 2024 LaQuan Nairn Wang Jianan x Lin Yu-Tang Radek Juska Miltiadis Tentoglou x Jeswin Aldrin Mattia Furlani x Tajay Gayle Carey McLeod Thobias Montler Cameron Crump Jeremiah Davis Any Other Athlete Women's Pole Vault Day 2 March 2nd 2024 Alysha Newman Li Ling Amalie Svabikova Wilma Murto x Margot Chevrier Molly Caudery x Aikaterini Stefanidi Roberta Bruni Eliza McCartney Angelica Moser Katie Moon x Sandi Morris Any Other Athlete Men's Triple Jump Day 2 March 2nd 2024 Yasser Mohammed Triki x Hugues Fabrice Zango x* Fang Yaoqing Zhu Yaming Lazaro Martinez x Christian Napoles Jean-Marc Pontvianne Max Hess Praveen Chithravel Emmanuel Ihejeme Chris Benard Donald Scott Any Other Athlete Women's 3000m Day 2 March 2nd 2024 Jessica Hull Lemlem Hailu Hirut Meshesha Gudaf Tsegay x* Laura Muir x Hannah Nuttall Nozomi Tanaka Beatrice Chepkoech Teresiah Muthoni Gateri Marta Garcia Agueda Marques Elly Henes Elle St. Pierre x Any Other Athlete Men's 3000m Day 2 March 2nd 2024 John Heymans Selemon Barega x Getnet Wale Maximilian Thorwith Josh Kerr x Gideon Kipkertich Rono Hicham Akankam Adel Mechaal Yared Nuguse x Abdihamid Nur Any Other Athlete Women's 400m Day 2 March 2nd 2024 Susanne Gogl-Walli Tereza Petrzilkova Lada Vondrova Laviai Nielsen Sharlene Mawdsley Stacey Ann Williams Charokee Young Femke Bol x Lieke Klaver x Henriette Jaeger Andrea Miklos Talitha Diggs x Alexis Holmes Any Other Athlete Men's 400m Day 2 March 2nd 2024 Alexander Doom Matej Krsek Attila Molnar Rusheen McDonald x Tomas Kersulis Ezekiel Nathaniel Karsten Warholm x Carl Bengstroem Jareem Richards x Christopher Bailey Jacory Patterson Any Other Athlete Men's 60m Hurdles Day 2 March 2nd 2024 Michael Obasuyi Wilhem Belocian Just Kwaou-Mathey Tade Ojora Lorenzo Ndele Simonelli Giano Roberts Jakub Szymanski Enrique Llopis Asier Martinez Jason Joseph Trey Cunningham x Grant Holloway x Daniel Roberts x Any Other Athlete Women's 60m Day 2 March 2nd 2024 Anthonique Strachan Tristan Evelyn Zaynab Dosso Tiana Clayton Shahalee Forbes Patrizia Van Der Weken Rosemary Chukwuma Favour Ofili Ewa Swoboda x Julien Alfred x Celera Barnes Mikiah Brisco Aleia Hobbs x Any Other Athlete Women's Triple Jump Day 3 March 3rd 2024 Charisma Taylor Gabriele Santos Zeng Rui Leyanis Perez Hernandez x Lidagmis Povea Thea Lafond x Kristiina Makela Kimberly Williams Mariko Morimoto Ana Peleteiro Jasmine Moore x Keturah Orji Any Other Athlete Men's High Jump Day 3 March 3rd 2024 Donald Thomas Thomas Carmoy Jan Stefela Tobias Poyte x Ryoichi Akamatsu Edgar Rivera Hamish Kerr x Norbert Kobielski Woo Sanghyeok x Oleh Doroshchuk Andrii Protsenko Shelby McEwen Any Other Athlete Men's Pole Vault Day 3 March 3rd 2024 Kurtis Marschall Ben Broeders Huang Bokai Thibaut Collet Emmanouil Karalis Menno Vloon Ernest John Obiena x Piotr Lisek Armand Duplantis x* Ersu Sasma Sam Kendricks Christopher Nilsen x Any Other Athlete Women's Long Jump Day 3 March 3rd 2024 Eliane Martins Hilary Kpatcha Mikaelle Assani Larissa Iapichino x Sumire Hata Ese Brume x Ruth Usoro Alina Rotaru-Kottmann Milica Gardasevic Fatima Diame Tara Davis-Woodhall x Jasmine Moore Any Other Athlete Men's 4x400m Relay Day 3 March 3rd 2024 Belgium x Czechia France Germany Great Britain Italy Jamaica Neherlands x Poland United States x* Any Other Nation Women's 4x400m Relay Day 3 March 3rd 2024 Belgium Canada Czechia France Germany Great Britain x Ireland Italy Jamaica Neherlands x Poland United States x Any Other Nation Men's Heptathlon Day 3 March 3rd 2024 Ken Mullings Jente Hauttekeete Ondrej Kopecky Johannes Erm x Makenson Gletty Jack Turner Lindon Victor Sven Jansons Markus Rooth Sander Skotheim x Simon Ehammer x Harrison Williams Any Other Athlete Women's 60m Hurdles Day 3 March 3rd 2024 Michelle Jenneke Devynne Charlton x Mette Graversgaard Reetta Hurske Cyrena Samba-Mayela Cindy Sember Sarah Lavin Megan Tapper Danielle Williams Nadine Visser x Tobi Amusan Pia Skrzyszowska x Tia Jones Masai Russell Any Other Athlete Men's 800m Day 3 March 3rd 2024 Mohamed Ali Gouaned Eliot Crestan Tibo De Smet Tshepiso Masalela Benjamin Robert Noah Kibet Collins Kipruto x Abdelati El Guesse Mohamed Attaoui x Mariano Garcia Isaiah Harris Bryce Hoppel x Any Other Athlete Women's 800m Day 3 March 3rd 2024 Catriona Bisset Noelie Yarigo Habitam Alemu x Tsige Duguma Isabelle Boffey Jemma Reekie x Natoya Goule-Toppin Vivian Chebet Kiprotich Any Swiss Athlete Halimah Nakaayi x Nia Akins Allie Wilson Any Other Athlete Men's 1500m Day 3 March 3rd 2024 Biniam Mehary x Samuel Tefera x Azeddine Habz Adam Fogg Reynold Kipkorir Cheruyiot Vincent Kibet Keter Anass Essayi Narve Gilje Nordaas x Isaac Nader Tshepo Tshite Mario Garcia Adel Mechaal Cole Hocker Hobbs Kessler Any Other Athlete Women's 1500m Day 3 March 3rd 2024 Linden Hall Lucia Stafford Freweyni Hailu x Diribe Welteji x Agathe Guillemot Georgia Bell Revee Walcott-Nolan Sarah Healy Any Polish Athlete Claudia Mihaela Bobocea Esther Guerrero Marta Perez Emily Mackay Addison Wiley Any Other Athlete x [/hide]

"Double-the-points" will be distributed as follow: Each user will have 3 in total during the Knockout Stage - From Playoffs to Finals Each user will have to mark their matches with "Double-the-points" with an "*". Men's Tournament Knockout Stage February 11th - February 17th, 2024 Third-Place Match Date & Time (GMT +3) Nation 1 T1 T2 Nation 2 February 17th 2023, h. 16:00 Spain 1 France Final Date & Time (GMT +3) Nation 1 T1 T2 Nation 2 February 17th 2023, h. 17:30 Italy 1 Croatia

"Double-the-points" will be distributed as follow: Each user will have 3 in total during the Knockout Stage - From Playoffs to Finals Each user will have to mark their matches with "Double-the-points" with an "*". Women's Tournament Knockout Stage February 10th - February 16th, 2024 Third-Place Match Date & Time (GMT +3) Nation 1 T1 T2 Nation 2 February 16th 2023, h. 16:00 Spain 2* Greece Final Date & Time (GMT +3) Nation 1 T1 T2 Nation 2 February 16th 2023, h. 17:30 United States 2 Hungary

"Double-the-points" will be distributed as follow: Each user will have 3 in total during the Knockout Stage - From Playoffs to Finals Each user will have to mark their matches with "Double-the-points" with an "*". Men's Tournament Knockout Stage February 11th - February 17, 2024 4 Nations, the 2 winning Nations will qualify for the Final. The 2 losing nations wil play the Third-Place Match. Semifinals Date & Time (GMT +3) Nation 1 T1 T2 Nation 2 February 15th 2023, h. 16:00 Spain 1 Italy February 15th 2023, h. 17:30 Croatia 1 France

Cairo World cup starts tomorrow. Cottbus is next week. Cairo Entry list: https://www.gymnastics.sport/asset.php?id=fidb_15319 Somewhat unsurprisingly a massive entry list nearly 300 which is nearly double this world cups typical number of entries. No Russia as expected but Belarus as neutrals and North Korea interestingly are here. Top 2 eligible gymnasts per apparatus to qualify based on the best 3 of 4 world cup results. Sharing the point allocation system because I found it difficult to find in the past. Rank Apparatus World Cup points 1 30 2 25 3 20 4 18 5 16 6 14 7 12 8 10 9 8 10 7 11 6 12 5 13 4 14 3 15 2 16 1 Anyone with a more extensive gymnastics knowledge want to try and preview/ predict these qualifiers?

"Double-the-points" will be distributed as follow: Each user will have 3 in total during the Knockout Stage - From Playoffs to Finals Each user will have to mark their matches with "Double-the-points" with an "*". Women's Tournament Knockout Stage February 10th - February 16th, 2024 4 Nations, the 2 winning Nations will qualify for the Final. The 2 losing nations wil play the Third-Place Match. Semifinals Date & Time (GMT +3) Nation 1 T1 T2 Nation 2 February 14th 2023, h. 16:00 United States 1 Spain February 14th 2023, h. 17:30 Hungary 1 Greece

"Double-the-points" will be distributed as follow: Each user will have 3 in total during the Knockout Stage - From Playoffs to Finals Each user will have to mark their matches with "Double-the-points" with an "*". Men's Tournament Knockout Stage February 11th - February 17th, 2024 8 Nations, the 4 winning Nations will qualify for the Semifinals. Quarterfinals Date & Time (GMT +3) Nation 1 T1 T2 Nation 2 February 13th 2023, h. 16:00 Spain 5* Montenegro February 13th 2023, h. 17:30 Greece 1 Italy February 13th 2023, h. 19:00 Serbia 1 Croatia February 13th 2023, h. 20:30 Hungary 1 France

"Double-the-points" will be distributed as follow: Each user will have 3 in total during the Knockout Stage - From Playoffs to Finals Each user will have to mark their matches with "Double-the-points" with an "*". Women's Tournament Knockout Stage February 10th - February 16th, 2024 8 Nations, the 4 winning Nations will qualify for the Semifinals. Quarterfinals Date & Time (GMT +3) Nation 1 T1 T2 Nation 2 February 12th 2023, h. 16:00 United States 6 Australia February 12th 2023, h. 17:30 Spain 8 Canada February 12th 2023, h. 19:00 Hungary 1 Netherlands February 12th 2023, h. 20:30 Italy 2 Greece

"Captain"-points - Explained: Each user can select up to 5 "captains" for this contest. Each "captain" will double its' points for his, her's or the team's event. Each user will have to mark their "captains" for each event with an "*". Event & Date Athletes Gold Silver Bronze Women's 400m Freestyle Day 1 February 11 2024 Kiah Melverton x Valentine Dumont Any Brazilian Athlete Ella Jensen Li Bingjie x Yang Peiqi Isabel Gose Ajna Kesely Simona Quadarella Erika Fairweather x Eve Thomas Addison Sauickie Any Other Athlete Women's 4x100m Free Relay Day 1 February 11 2024 Australia x Brazil Canada China x Hong Kong Italy Netherlands x South Korea Sweden United States Any Other Nation Men's 400m Freestyle Day 1 February 11 2024 Elijah Winnington Felix Auboeck Guilherme Costa Petar Mitsin Any Chinese Athlete Lukas Martens x Sven Schwarz Kristof Rasovszky Daniel Wiffen x Marco De Tullio Matteo Ciampi Danas Rapsys Kim Woomin Antonio Djakovic Ahmed Hafnaoui x David Johnston Any Other Athlete Men's 4x100m Free Relay Day 1 February 11 2024 Australia Canada China Great Britain x Hungary Italy x South Korea Sweden United States x Any Other Nation Women's 100m Butterfly Day 2 February 12 2024 Alexandra Perkins Brianna Throssell Lana Pudar x Katerine Savard Gong Zhenqi Barbora Seemanova Angelina Kohler x Anna Ntountounaki Chiharu Iitsuka Erin Gallagher Louise Hansson Claire Curzan x Any Other Athlete Women's 200m Ind. Medley Day 2 February 12 2024 Ashley McMillan Sydney Pickrem x Yu Yiting Charlotte Bonnet Cyrielle Duhamel Abbie Wood Delma Sebestyen Anastasia Gorbenko x Sara Franceschi Marrit Steenbergen Kim Seoyeong Kate Douglass x* Any Other Athlete Men's 100m Breaststroke Day 2 February 12 2024 Sam Williamson Bernhard Reitshammer Ilya Shymanovich Melwin Imoudu Lucas Matzerath Adam Peaty James Wilby Nicolo Martinenghi x Ludovico Blu Art Viberti Denis Petrashov Casper Corbeau Arno Kamminga x Berkay Ogretir Nic Fink x Jake Foster Any Other Athlete Men's 50m Butterfly Day 2 February 12 2024 Isaac Cooper Cameron McEvoy x Simon Bucher Abdelrahman Sameh Benjamin Proud Stergios Marios Bilas Szebasztian Szabo Nyls Korstanje Diogo Matos Ribeiro x Dylan Carter Mario Molla Yanes Michael Andrew x Shaine Casas Any Other Athlete Women's 1500m Freestyle Day 3 February 13 2024 Agostina Hein Madeleine Gough Beatriz Dizotti Kristel Kobrich Li Bingjie x Yang Peiqi Anastasiia Kirpichnikova Isabel Gose Simona Quadarella x Evie Thomas Kayla Han Kate Hurst x Any Other Athlete Women's 100m Backstroke Day 3 February 13 2024 Iona Anderson x Jaclyn Barclay x Anastasiya Shkurdai Ingrid Wilm Chen Xin Lauren Cox Kathleen Dawson Maike De Waard Kira Toussaint Adela Piskorska Carmen Weiler Sastre Claire Curzan x Any Other Athlete Women's 100m Breaststroke Day 3 February 13 2024 Macarena Ceballos Abbey Harkin Any Chinese Athlete Siobhan Haughey x Mona McSharry x Arianna Castiglioni Benedetta Pilato Ruta Meilutyte x Kotryna Teterevkova Tes Schouten Dominika Sztandera Laura Van Niekerk Sophie Hansson En Yi Lettia Sim Any American Athlete Any Other Athlete Men's 200m Freestyle Day 3 February 13 2024 Kai James Taylor Elijah Winnington Felix Auboeck Lucas Henveaux Fernando Scheffer Pan Zhanle x Lukas Martens Rafael Miroslaw Duncan Scott x Denis Loktev Marco De Tullio Katsuhiro Matsumoto Danas Rapsys Hwang Sunwoo x Luke Hobson Any Other Athlete Men's 100m Backstroke Day 3 February 13 2024 Bradley Woodward Miroslav Knedla x Ole Braunschweig Apostolos Christou Adam Jaszo Benedek Bendeguz Kovacs Andrew Jeffcoat Ksawery Masiuk Pieter Coetze x Lee Juho Hugo Gonzalez Roman Mityukov Jack Aikens Hunter Armstrong x* Any Other Athlete Women's 200m Freestyle Day 4 February 14 2024 Shayna Jack Brianna Throssell Valentine Dumont Ai Yanhan Li Bingjie Barbora Seemanova Abbie Wood Siobhan Haughey x* Nikolett Padar Marrit Steenbergen x Erika Fairweather x Addison Sauickie Any Other Athlete Men's 800m Freestyle Day 4 February 14 2024 Elijah Winnington Guilherme Costa Marwan Elkamash Damian Joly Sven Schwarz x Florian Wellbrock David Betlehem Kristof Rasovszky Daniel Wiffen x Luca De Tullio Gregorio Paltrinieri Kim Woomin Ahmed Hafnaoui x Mykhailo Romanchuk Any American Athlete Any Other Athlete Men's 50m Breaststroke Day 4 February 14 2024 Mikel Schreuders Sam Williamson Bernhard Reitshammer Ilya Shymanovich Melwin Imoudu Lucas Matzerath Adam Peaty x Simone Cerasuolo Nicolo Martinenghi Any Dutch Athlete Peter Stevens Emre Sakci Michael Andrew x Nic Fink x Any Other Athlete Men's 200m Butterfly Day 4 February 14 2024 Martin Espernberger Max Litchfield Ricardo Marton Federico Burdisso Alberto Razzetti x Tomoru Honda x Nao Horomura Krzysztof Chmielewski x Michal Chmielewski Arbidel Gonzalez Chad Le Clos Matthew Sates Zach Harting Any Other Athlete Mixed 4x100m Medley Relay Day 4 February 14 2024 Australia Canada China x France Great Britain Hungary Ireland Italy Japan Netherlands x South Africa Spain Sweden United States x Any Other Nation Women's 50m Backstroke Day 5 February 15 2024 Iona Anderson x Jaclyn Barclay Anastasiya Shkurdai Roos Vanotterdijk Ingrid Wilm x Chen Jie Lauren Cox x Kathleen Dawson Constanza Cocconcelli Maaike De Waard Kira Toussaint Adela Piskorska Claire Curzan Any Other Athlete Women's 200m Butterfly Day 5 February 15 2024 Lana Pudar x Ma Yonghui Helena Rosendahl Bach x Laura Stephens x Georgia Damasioti Boglarka Kapas Delma Sebestyen Maria Jose Mata Cocco Anja Crevar Park Sujin Rachel Klinker Any Other Athlete Women's 4x200m Free Relay Day 5 February 15 2024 Australia x Brazil Canada x China x France Great Britain Hungary Italy Netherlands South Korea United States Any Other Nation Men's 100m Freestyle Day 5 February 15 2024 Jack Cartwright Kai James Taylor Pan Zhanle x Wang Haoyu Matthew Richards x Nandor Nemeth Szebaszstian Szabo Manuel Frigo Alessandro Miressi Cameron Gray Diogo Matos Ribeiro Hwang Sunwoo x Matt King Any Other Athlete Men's 200m Ind. Medley Day 5 February 15 2024 Finlay Knox Duncan Scott Alberto Razzetti x Riki Abe Daiya Seto Lewis Clareburt Matthew Sates Carles Coll Marti Hugo Gonzalez Jeremy Desplanches Shaine Casas x Carson Foster x Any Other Athlete Women's 100m Freestyle Day 6 February 16 2024 Shayna Jack x Stephanie Balduccini Ai Yanhan Charlotte Bonnet Anna Hopkin Siobhan Haughey x Nagisa Ikemoto Marrit Steenbergen Kornelia Fiedkiewicz Michelle Coleman Sarah Sjoestroem Kate Douglass x Any Other Athlete Women's 200m Breaststroke Day 6 February 16 2024 Abbey Harkin Gabrielle Silva Sydney Pickrem Kristyna Horska Mona McSharry Francesca Fangio Kotryna Teterevkova x Tes Schouten x En Yi Lettia Sim Sophie Hansson Lisa Mamie Kate Douglass x Any Other Athlete Men's 200m Backstroke Day 6 February 16 2024 Bradley Woodward Luke Greenbank x Broadie Paul Williams Apostolos Christou Apostolos Siskos Benedek Bendeguz Kovacs Lorenzo Mora Andrew Jeffcoat Ksawery Masiuk Pieter Coetze Lee Juho Hugo Gonzalez Roman Mityukov x Oleksandr Zheltiakov x Jack Aikens Any Other Athlete Men's 200m Breaststroke Day 6 February 16 2024 James Dergousoff Dong Zhihao x Matti Mattsson Ikuru Hiroshima Denis Petrashov Andrius Sidlauskas Miguel De Lara Ojeda Caspar Corbeau x Arno Kamminga x Carles Coll Marti Erik Persson Nick Fink Jake Foster Any Other Athlete Men's 4x200m Free Relay Day 6 February 16 2024 Australia Brazil Canada China Great Britain x Italy Lithuania Poland South Korea x United States x Any Other Nation Women's 800m Freestyle Day 7 February 17 2024 Agosta Hein Madeleine Gough Kiah Melverton Yang Peiqi Anastasiia Kirpichnikova Isabel Gose x Ajna Kesely Simona Quadarella x Erika Fairweather x Evie Thomas Kayla Han Kate Hurst Any Other Athlete Women's 200m Backstroke Day 7 February 17 2024 Jaclyn Barclay x Anastasiya Shkurdai Ingrid Wilm Freya Colbert x Dara Molnar Eszter Szabo-Feltothy Laura Bernat Adela Piskorska Camila Rebelo Africa Zamorano Sanz Lilla Bognar Claire Curzan x Any Other Athlete Women's 50m Butterfly Day 7 February 17 2024 Any Australian Athlete Roos Vanotterdijk Katerine Savard Yu Yuting Farida Osman Melanie Henrique Angelina Kohler Anna Ntountounaki Maaike De Waard Neza Klancar Erin Gallagher x Louise Hansson Sarah Sjoestroem x Claire Curzan x Kate Douglass Any Other Athlete Men's 50m Freestyle Day 7 February 17 2024 Isaac Cooper Cameron McEvoy x Pan Zhanle Benjamin Proud x Stergios Marios Bilas Kristian Gkolomeev Ian Yentou Ho Szebasztian Szabo Leonardo Deplano Any Dutch Athlete Ji Yuchan Vladyslav Bukhov Michael Andrew x Matt King Any Other Athlete Men's 100m Butterfly Day 7 February 17 2024 Simon Bucher Josef Miladinov Wang Xizhe Tomoru Honda Katsuhiro Matsumoto Nyls Korstanje x Jakub Majerski Diogo Matos Ribeiro x Matthew Sates Chad Le Clos Shaine Casas x Zach Harting Any Other Athlete Mixed 4x100m Free Relay Day 7 February 17 2024 Australia x Brazil Canada China Hungary Italy x Japan Netherlands South Korea Sweden United States x Any Other Nation Women's 50m Freestyle Day 8 February 18 2024 Shayna Jack x Florine Gaspard Julie Kepp Jensen Melanie Henrique Anna Hopkin Kim Busch Marrit Steenbergen Katarzyna Wasick Neza Klancar Michelle Coleman Sarah Sjostrom x Claire Curzan x Kate Douglass Any Other Athlete Women's 50m Breaststroke Day 8 February 18 2024 Tang Qianting x Yang Chang Veera Kivirinta Mona McSharry Anita Bottazzo Benedetta Pilato x Ruta Meilutyte x* Kotryna Teterevkova Dominika Sztandera Lara Van Niekerk Sophie Hansson Piper Enge Any Other Athlete Women's 400m Ind. Medley Day 8 February 18 2024 Kiah Melverton Tessa Cieplucha Ella Jansen Cyrielle Duhamel Freya Constance Colbert x Boglarka Kapas Anastasia Gorbenko Sara Franceschi x Ichika Kajimoto x Anja Crevar Lilla Bognar Kayla Han Any Other Athlete Women's 4x100m Medley Relay Day 8 February 18 2024 Australia x Canada China Hong Kong Hungary Italy Netherlands x South Africa Spain Sweden x United States Any Other Nation Men's 1500m Freestyle Day 8 February 18 2024 Fei Liwei Marwan Elkamash David Aubry Damian Joly Sven Schwarz Florian Wellbrock David Betlehem Kristof Rasovszky Daniel Wiffen x* Luca De Tullio Gregorio Paltrinieri x Henrik Christiansen Ahmed Hafnaoui x Mykhailo Romanchuk Charlie Clark Any Other Athlete Men's 50m Backstroke Day 8 February 18 2024 Isaac Cooper x Javier Acevedo Miroslav Knedla Ole Braunschweig Apostolos Christou Michele Lamberti Andrew Jeffcoat Ksawery Masiuk Andrei-Mircea Anghel Pieter Coetze x Oleksandr Zheltiakov Michael Andrew Hunter Armstrong x Any Other Athlete Men's 400m Ind. Medley Day 8 February 18 2024 Lorne Wigginton Zhang Zhanshuo Max Litchfield Apostolos Papastamos Balazs Hollo Alberto Razzetti Tomoru Honda x Daiya Seto x Lewis Clareburt Matthew Sates Carson Foster x David Johnston Any Other Athlete Men's 4x100m Medley Relay Day 8 February 18 2024 Australia x Canada China Greece Hungary Italy x Japan Netherlands South Africa Spain United States x Any Other Nation

"Double-the-points" will be distributed as follow: Each user will have 3 in total during the Knockout Stage - From Playoffs to Finals Each user will have to mark their matches with "Double-the-points" with an "*". Men's Tournament Knockout Stage February 11th - February 17th, 2024 8 Nations, the 4 winning Nations will qualify for the Quarterfinals. Playoffs Date & Time (GMT +3) Nation 1 T1 T2 Nation 2 February 11th 2023, h. 12:00 Croatia 5 China February 11th 2023, h. 16:00 Australia 5* France February 11th 2023, h. 17:30 Montenegro 1 Romania February 11th 2023, h. 19:00 United States 3 Italy

"Double-the-points" will be distributed as follow: Each user will have 3 in total during the Knockout Stage - From Playoffs to Finals Each user will have to mark their matches with "Double-the-points" with an "*". Women's Tournament Knockout Stage February 10th - February 16th, 2024 8 Nations, the 4 winning Nations will qualify for the Quarterfinals. Playoffs Date & Time (GMT +3) Nation 1 T1 T2 Nation 2 February 10th 2023, h. 12:00 Netherlands 20 China February 10th 2023, h. 16:00 Kazakhstan 17 Greece February 10th 2023, h. 17:30 Australia 13 Great Britain February 10th 2023, h. 19:00 New Zealand 9 Canada

"Captain"-points - Explained: Each user can select up to 5 "captains" for this contest. Each "captain" will double its' points for his, her's or the team's event. Each user will have to mark their "captains" for each event with an "*". Event & Date Athletes Gold Silver Bronze Mixed Relay Day 1 February 7th 2024 Austria Czechia Finland France x Germany Italy Norway x* Slovenia Sweden x Switzerland Ukraine United States Any Other Nation Women's Sprint Day 2 February 9th 2024 Justine Braisaz-Bouchet x Lou Jeanmonnot Julia Simon Franziska Preuss Any Other German Athlete Lisa Vittozzi x Karoline Knotten Ingrid Tandrevold x Any Other Norwegian Athlete Anamarija Lampic Elvira Oeberg Any Other Swedish Athlete Lena Haecki Gross Any Other Athlete Men's Sprint Day 3 Febrary 10th 2024 Quentin Fillon Maillet Emilien Jacquelin Any Other French Athlete Benedikt Doll x Johannes Kuehn Philipp Nawrath Tomasso Giacomel Johannes Thingnes Boe x Tarjei Boe x Johannes Dale-Skjevdal Sturla Holm Laegreid Any Other Norwegian Athlete Martin Ponsilouma Sebastian Samuelsson Any Other Athlete Women's Pursuit Day 4 Febrary 11th 2024 Justine Braisaz-Bouchet x Lou Jeanmonnot Julia Simon x Franziska Preuss x Vanessa Voigt Lisa Vittozzi Juni Arnekleiv Karoline Knotten Ingrid Tandrevold Elvira Oeberg Hanna Oeberg Any Other Swedish Athlete Lena Haecki Gross Any Other Athlete Men's Pursuit Day 4 Febrary 11th 2024 Quentin Fillon Maillet Emilien Jacquelin Any Other French Athlete Philipp Nawrath Any Other German Athlete Tommaso Giacomel Johannes Thingnes Boe x* Tarjei Boe x Johannes Dale-Skjevdal x Sturla Holm Laegreid Any Other Norwegian Athlete Martin Ponsilouma Sebastian Samuelsson Any Other Athlete Women's Individual Day 5 Febrary 13th 2024 Lisa Theresa Hauser Justine Braisaz-Bouchet Lou Jeanmonnot Julia Simon Janina Hettich-Walz Franziska Preuss Vanessa Voigt Lisa Vittozzi x Dorothea Wierer Juni Arnekleiv Karoline Knotten Ingrid Tandrevold Elvira Oeberg Hanna Oeber x Lena Haecki Gross x Any Other Athlete Men's Individual Day 6 Febrary 14th 2024 Quentin Fillon Maillet Emilien Jacquelin Any Other French Athlete Johannes Kuehn Roman Rees Justus Strelow Tommaso Giacomel Johannes Thingnes Boe x* Tarjei Boe Johannes Dale-Skjevdal Any Other Norwegian Athlete x Martin Ponsilouma Sebastian Samuelsson x Sebastian Stalder Any Other Athlete Single Mixed Relay Day 7 February 15th 2024 Austria Czechia Finland France x Germany Italy Norway x Slovenia Sweden x Switzerland Ukraine United States Any Other Nation Women's Relay Day 8 February 17th 2024 Austria Czechia Finland France x Germany Italy x Norway Poland Slovenia Sweden x* Switzerland Ukraine Any Other Nation Men's Relay Day 8 February 17th 2024 Austria Czechia Finland France x Germany Italy Norway x* Slovenia Sweden x Switzerland Ukraine Any Other Nation Women's Mass Start Day 9 February 18th 2024 Justine Braisaz-Bouchet Lou Jeanmonnot Julia Simon x Franziska Preuss Vanessa Voigt Lisa Vittozzi Juni Arnekleiv Karoline Knotten Ingrid Tandrevold x Elvira Oeberg Hanna Oeberg x Lena Haecki Gross Any Other Athlete Men's Mass Start Day 9 February 18th 2024 Quentin Fillon Maillet Emilien Jacquelin Any Other French Athlete Johannes Kuehn Justus Strelow Any Other German Athlete Any Italian Athlete Johannes Thingnes Boe x Tarjei Boe x Johannes Dale-Skjevdal Any Other Norwegian Athlete x Martin Ponsilouma Sebastian Samuelsson Sebastian Stalder Any Other Athlete

Just posting a slight update on my qualification projections from a few weeks ago before diving qualification starts as the hockey teams were kinding throwing the numbers of the probabilistic approach off. 139 would have been the 22nd largest team in Tokyo and with basically no Russia it might not be that unrealistic that our team size for Paris could be in the top 20. My projection Probabalistic E(q) Floor Ceiling 139 138.7 127.75 147.15

*"Double-the-points" distributed as follow: Each user will have 5 during the Group stage. Each user will have to mark their matches with "Double-the-points" with an "*". Women's Tournament Group Stage February 4th - February 8th, 2024 16 Nations, 4 Groups, the 1st-placed Nation from each Group will qualify for the Quarterfinals. The 2nd-and 3rd-placed Nations from each Group will qualify for the Playoffs. Group A Date & Time (GMT +3) Nation 1 T1 T2 Nation 2 February 4th 2023, h. 09:00 Kazakhstan 5 Brazil February 4th 2023, h. 10:30 United States 2 Netherlands February 6th 2023, h. 19:00 Netherlands 25 Kazakhstan February 6th 2023, h. 20:30 Brazil 18 United States February 8th 2023, h. 16:00 Brazil 18 Netherlands February 8th 2023, h. 17:30 United States 25 Kazakhstan Group B Date & Time (GMT +3) Nation 1 T1 T2 Nation 2 February 4th 2023, h. 12:00 China 10 Spain February 4th 2023, h. 13:30 Greece 7 France February 6th 2023, h. 09:00 France 3 China February 6th 2023, h. 10:30 Spain 1 Greece February 8th 2023, h. 19:00 Spain 9 France February 8th 2023, h. 20:30 Greece 8 China Group C Date & Time (GMT +3) Nation 1 T1 T2 Nation 2 February 4th 2023, h. 16:00 Australia 30 Singapore February 4th 2023, h. 17:30 Hungary 16 New Zealand February 6th 2023, h. 12:00 New Zealand 17 Australia February 6th 2023, h. 13:30 Singapore 28 Hungary February 8th 2023, h. 09:00 Singapore 20 New Zealand February 8th 2023, h. 10:30 Hungary 1 Australia Group D Date & Time (GMT +3) Nation 1 T1 T2 Nation 2 February 4th 2023, h. 19:00 Great Britain 10 Italy February 4th 2023, h. 20:30 South Africa 13 Canada February 6th 2023, h. 16:00 Canada 2 Great Britain February 6th 2023, h. 17:30 Italy 23 South Africa February 8th 2023, h. 12:00 Italy 4 Canada February 8th 2023, h. 13:30 South Africa 8 Great Britain Top 3 Place 1st 2nd 3rd Nation USA Netherlands Spain Men's Tournament Group Stage February 5th - February 9th, 2024 16 Nations, 4 Groups, the 1st-placed Nation from each Group will qualify for the Quarterfinals. The 2nd-and 3rd-placed Nations from each Group will qualify for the Playoffs. Group A Date & Time (GMT +3) Nation 1 T1 T2 Nation 2 February 5th 2023, h. 09:00 Croatia 4* Australia February 5th 2023, h. 10:30 South Africa 27 Spain February 7th 2023, h. 19:00 Spain 3* Croatia February 7th 2023, h. 20:30 Australia 18 South Africa February 9th 2023, h. 16:00 Australia 8 Spain February 9th 2023, h. 17:30 South Africa 24 Croatia Group B Date & Time (GMT +3) Nation 1 T1 T2 Nation 2 February 5th 2023, h. 12:00 China 11 Greece February 5th 2023, h. 13:30 Brazil 8 France February 7th 2023, h. 09:00 France 8 China February 7th 2023, h. 10:30 Greece 11 Brazil February 9th 2023, h. 19:00 Greece 3* France February 9th 2023, h. 20:30 Brazil 1 China Group C Date & Time (GMT +3) Nation 1 T1 T2 Nation 2 February 5th 2023, h. 16:00 Japan 7 Serbia February 5th 2023, h. 17:30 Montenegro 1 United States February 7th 2023, h. 12:00 United States 2 Japan February 7th 2023, h. 13:30 Serbia 3 Montenegro February 9th 2023, h. 09:00 Serbia 5* United States February 9th 2023, h. 10:30 Montenegro 6 Japan Group D Date & Time (GMT +3) Nation 1 T1 T2 Nation 2 February 5th 2023, h. 19:00 Italy 18 Kazakhstan February 5th 2023, h. 20:30 Romania 7 Hungary February 7th 2023, h. 16:00 Hungary 1 Italy February 7th 2023, h. 17:30 Kazakhstan 7 Romania February 9th 2023, h. 12:00 Kazakhstan 15 Hungary February 9th 2023, h. 13:30 Romania 7* Italy Top 3 Place 1st 2nd 3rd Nation Spain Hungary Italy

I spent a while going down a rabbit hole of trying to figure this out a couple of months ago and I think my conclusion was that they just haven't announced it either way yet although that may have since changed. They haven't seeded any of the qualification tournaments so maybe they just don't although that would gaurantee some very strange medals. My guess is they probably do include seeds and just end up seeding the European/ Asian and American champions along with either the African or Oceanian champion but I don't really have anything to base that on.

https://www.independent.ie/sport/other-sports/boxing/walsh-duo-earn-surprise-spots-on-ireland-boxing-team-for-olympic-qualifiers/a1253315537.html Well there is good news and bad news. Rest of the squad is as expected. Grainne Walsh has to win an Olympic medal now. You can't get picked ahead of two world champions including the one who beat both of the world finalists last year and not medal. I have to say I'm dissapointed. I feel great about Broadhurst's or O'Rourke's medal hopes and not very good about Walsh's. I do hope I'm proven wrong. I hate that to an extent I will root against her but I was semi relieved when Dean Walsh lost during European games and I suspect I will find myself in the same frame of mind with Grainne Walsh. An interesting note with this squad is apart from the Tokyo Olympians. We haven't picked anyone who won a European or World championships medal in 2022. (Sweeney, Fryers, Broadhurst, O'Rourke, Desmond, Dossen, Eagleson).

Bro, Get your hopes up for the world cup series qualifiers. There are a couple like pommel and rings where the standard required to qualify will be ridiculously high but some of them are definitely attainable. Like I wouldn't pick us to get any of them but we will be in the shake up. Also on review I think Russia won't be allowed at Europeans so that all-around quota is not quite as but still mostly out of the question. There are five or so gymnasts between Halle Hilton and a reallocated quota. It's not impossible if some of them qualify through other means but Hilton getting an actually quota herself is much more likely than picking up a reallocated one. We seem to be looking at different badminton rankings but I'll believe you and yeah I probably should have put Rachael Darragh down as a safe qualifier.

Right,I feel like it is an apt time (well it was last week but this took a while) to revisit this thread as at this point we should be able to relatively accurately project the remaining Irish qualifiers. This was a much trickier exercise than I thought it would be. I guess a lot of the could go either way qualifiers are still in play plus some of the more ambiguous qualification systems haven’t come to their conclusion yet. Safe qualifiers (S) (>90%), Likely qualifiers (L) (>65%), 50-50 (F) (35-65%) , Still in with a chance (C) (5-35%), Very unlikely but still possible (V) (<5%). I also just went through and put who I actually think will qualify. To simplify things an athlete’s potential relay quota is only included in the relay’s qualification likelihood and not the individuals, Also not counting injury risk in my probabilities unless a given athlete is particularly injury prone or currently injured. I’ll try to keep my thoughts fairly brief. (Update I failed) Athletics- Men’s Sprint/ hurdles- Israel Olatunde (F) (q), Mark Smyth (L) (q), Marcus Lawler (V), Robert McDonnell (F) (L if he was ever not injured), Chris O’Donnell (L) (q), Thomas Barr (S) (q), Fintan Dewhirst (V), Jack Raftery (V), Cillín Greene (V), Calum Baird (V). Israel Olatunde probably needs to pb to be in with a chance of qualifying in addition to running five races faster than he did last year but in reality only needs to replicate his indoor form from last year outdoors. It will be interesting to see how much he focuses on indoor world championships or if he puts all his eggs in the Olympics basket. Mark Smyth just needs to continue to improve from last year, Somewhat similar to Israel in terms of his indoor form last year never translating to an equivalent time outdoors. McDonnell should qualify if he just has an injury free season but that would his first. O’Donnell (45.00) and Barr (48.70) both should get close to running qualifying times but should qualify regardless. Men’s middle distance- Mark English (S) (q), John Fitzsimons (L) (q), Cian McPhillips (F), Conor Murphy (C), Mark Milner (V) (Only 3 can qualify). Luke McCann (L) (q), Nick Griggs (F) (q), Cathal Doyle (C- Only 2 plus Andrew Coscoran). English and Fitzsimons have been recent major champs regulars so that shouldn’t change. McPhillips should be in with a great chance of qualifying barring injury trouble. Luke McCann and Nick Griggs both could run the qualifying time (3:33.5) but are likely rankings qualifiers regardless although given recent 1500m times there may not be many rankings quotas on offer. Cathal Doyle is actually in a qualifying position currently ahead of McCann but is probably unlikely to stay there. Men’s Long distance- Darragh McElhenney (F) (q), Cormac Dalton (V), Barry Keane (V), Efrem Gidey (C), Peter Lynch (V), Stephen Scullion (L) (q), Ryan Creech (C), Ryan Forsyth (V), Hiko Haso (F), Darragh Kenny (L) (q), Brendan Boyce (V), Oisin Lane (V). Darragh McElhenney is another one of the many young improving athletes who may or may not qualify on this list. I reckon he will make it though. Efrem Gidey also fits into that category but would need a significant bounce back season to make it. Stephen Scullion seems like our most likely marathon qualifier after running 2:11:51 at the Dublin marathon. That is 3:40 off the qualifying time (2:08:10) but after taking significant time off after Tokyo I think he is on pace to either run it or get close enough to get a rankings spot. Hiko Haso was on pace to run the qualifying time in Valencia for most of the race before fading towards the end. 65 of the marathon qualifiers will be decided in February (right?) but only 3 I think of them will be rankings quota so shouldn’t effect things too much. Darragh Kenny is very likely to qualify in the 20k race walk. Brendan Boyce I think is focused on the mixed relay. Men’s field events- Eric Favors (S) (q), Reece Ademola (L) (q), Sean Mockler (V). Shot put isn’t very deep so Eric Favors should qualify comfortably. Reece Ademola is one of a few athletes who ended last year very strongly and so starts in the year in a decent ranking position albeit currently outside a quota spot. He is definitely good enough to qualify. (It’s kind of sad that potentially qualifying 2 men’s field event athletes would be a massive improvement for us.) Women’s sprint- Molly Scott (C), Gina Akpe Moses (C), Lauren Roy (V), Lucy May Sleeman (V), Sharlene Mawdsley (S)(q), Sophie Becker (F), Roisin Harrison (C), Phil Healy (F)(q), Cliodhna Manning (V), Kelly McGrory (V). Molly Scott is back after becoming a barrister but would need a career season to qualify. I’ll be honest, I hadn’t realised Gina Akpe-Moses was racing at all last year but she was running 11.50 by the end of the year so maybe still has a shot at an Olympic appearance. Sharlene Mawdsley is in a very strong position to qualify. I’d be somewhat surprised if none of Sophie Becker, Roisin Harrison or Phil Healy qualified in the 400. It will be interesting to see if Phil Healy can resurrect a career that has fallen apart a bit over the last couple of years when in theory she should be hitting her peak. Also I do wonder if the 200 is her best event and her recent focus on the 400 for relays purposes has hurt her individual career. Women’s middle distance- Louise Shanahan (S)(q), Jenna Bromell (V), Geogie Hartigan (V). Shanahan is very likely to qualify, is a pb away from running the entry standard. 3 already qualified in the 1500 so this is a short list as a result. Women’s Long distance- Roisin Flanagan (C), Eilish Flanagan (C) Ide Nic Domhnaill (V), Michelle Finn (F), Ava O’Connor (V), Kate Veale (V), Anne Marie McGlynn (V), Aoife Cooke (V). Eilish Flanagan obviously is already an Olympian but it is tough to see her qualifying this time around. Roisin Flanagan would need a significant pb to make it in the 5000 or the 10000. Michele Finn making her third Olympics would be some achievement and is currently in a rankings spot. Narrowly missed out for world championships last year so it is possible that happens again. It currently looks like Fionnuala McCormack will likely be alone in the marathon field which would be the first time since 2008 that we didn’t qualify multiple athletes for that race. Women’s field events- Sommer Lecky (V), Ava Rochford (V), Ellie McCartney (V), Elizabeth Ndudi (F), Ruby Millet (V), Nicola Tuthill (C), Kate O’Connor (S)(q). Sommer Lecky and Ava Rochford would both need to start jumping 10cm higher at least to put themselves in contention to qualify. Ellie McCartney is also 20cm away from contention in the Pole Vault. Obviously none of them are likely to make that big a leap (pun intended) but they might be more realistic than some of the athletes I have included here. If Elisabeth Ndudi can replicate and improve slightly on her 6.56 pb from the end of last year, she could easily qualify. She is still very young though. Tuthill is currently in a quota spot but it will be tough to keep it. Development ark for hammer throwers tends to be a slower so having recently turned 20, Paris is probably too soon. Kate O’Connor ended up being very close to not qualifying for worlds last year but hopefully one good heptathlon off the back of worlds should see her comfortably qualify this time around. She might already be safe but one good performance would probably secure it. Relays- Mix 4*400 (S)(q), Men’s 4*400 (F) (O’Donnell, Baird, McDonnell/Greene, Raftery), Women’s 4*400 (L)(q) (Becker, Mawdsley, Healy/Harrison, Adeleke), Men’s 4*100 (V) (Smyth?, Akinola, Swinner, Olatunde) Women’s 4*100 (C) (Sleeman, Lavin, Scott, Akpe-Moses). Mixed race walk (Boyce + Veale) (L) (2q). Right so these will be decided almost in their entirety at world relays in May. Deciding these all at the same time makes qualifying the mixed and the Men’s/ Women’s 4*400 a bit tricky. Then again every country is in the same boat and honestly our 400m depth is really good so this may end up helping us. There are 2 world rankings quotas per relay which the W4*400 and the Mixed 4*400 could get but obviously depends on what other countries opt to do. Obviously we may decide to just focus on the mixed 4*400 or maybe even trust the M4*400 to qualify enough that we ignore the mixed event (There is a medal available for some country behind Netherlands and the USA now that Fiordaliza Cofil was found to have high testosterone and knocked out the Dominican challenge in the process. It could maybe be us). Qualifying the mixed and Women’s 4*400 would raise a number of selection headaches particularly regarding Adeleke but sure we can cross that bridge if we come to it. I would assume we would put out 4*100 squads and there are maybe the makings of decent times in both squads. The women somehow managed to qualify for 2022 worlds so maybe they can repeat the feat. (The big brain move might be to use Adeleke to help qualify the 4*100 with no intention of using her at the Olympics in the event). The world racing walking team championships will decide 13 of the 16 mixed relay (4*10km with 2 athletes) quotas with 3 additional rankings spots. We are currently 7th in the rankings and it is only 1 qualifier per country so unless I am missing something, I think we will qualify here. Badminton- Nhat Nguyen (S) (q), Rachael Darragh (L) (q), Men’s Double (2C). Nguyen could probably miss the rest of the qualifying window and still qualify. Rachael Darragh I believe has a 10 spot buffer in the rankings at the moment but does still have work to do to secure her spot. The men’s double is currently ranked 58th in the world with Brazil and Mexico sitting between us and the current 16th qualifier the USA in 51st. It’s roughly a 2000 point gap which I think is closable but I’m not sure. If they make it, it will be by the skin of their teeth. Boxing- Women’s- Daina Moorehouse- W50kg (S)(q), Jennifer Lehane (Niamh Fay)- W54kg (L) (q), Amy Broadhurst (Lisa O’Rourke, Grainne Walsh)- W66kg (S) (q). I have Daina Moorehouse fourth of the remaining unqualified boxers and kind of think she is more likely to beat those ahead of her than lose to someone behind her so I feel very comfortable about her chances. There are about 10 or so bantamweight boxers all of a relatively equal standard left in the draw so Lehane’s task is a bit tougher but still fairly doable. A lot of these weight have one or two nightmare draws left in the qualifying tournaments. At 66kg we are the nightmare draw whether it is Amy Broadhurst or Lisa O’Rourke. I have no idea which we will select but I don’t think it should be Grainne Walsh. Her Olympic medal chances just aren’t good enough compared to the other two. Men’s- Sean Mari- M51kg (V) , Jude Gallagher (Dylan Eagleson)- M57kg (F) (q), Dean Walsh (Aidan Walsh, Eugene McKeever)- M71kg (F), Kelyn Cassidy (Gabriel Dossen?)- M80kg (L) (q), Martin McDonagh- M92+kg (V) Sean Mari would need the performance of his life and a favourable draw just to be in with a chance of qualifying. I have Jude Gallagher projected as the last qualifier at featherweight so it is possible the draw decides whether or not he makes it. It will be interesting if he doesn’t make it at the first one if we would then pick Eagleson. I have no clue what 71kg ends up looking like. Aidan Walsh did a podcast in December with Cavan gaa which seemed to suggest (along with his absence at national champs) that he had stepped away from the high performance setup for mental health reasons but apparently he is back in the squad (if he ever actually left that is). Dean Walsh I have talked about before but he falls into the could qualify for the Olympics but is realistically unlikely to category. Eugene McKeever’s inclusion in the training squad is interesting as first of all I thought Jon McConnell was ahead of him in the pecking order and secondly probably not a great sign for a. the coaching staff’s confidence in Dean Walsh or b. Aidan Walsh definitely being available. Kelyn Cassidy is in theory our most secure male remaining qualifier but has been inconsistent at times in the past and I do have some concern about his ability to go through the rounds as he would likely need four wins to make the Olympics especially given his propensity to get on referees nerves for whatever reason. Gabriel Dossen was surprisingly not included in the training squad. The reason for that is unclear but I would be shocked if it was performance related. (Turning pro?, Injured?, Caught selling weed again?). I think Martin McDonagh has impressed enough to get a shot so I would expect to see him get selected for the qualifiers. Expecting him to qualify is probably optimistic although superheavy is a pretty shallow division. Strandja is the first week of February before the first qualifier in the first week of March. It will be interesting whether we send the entire squad to Strandja or rest the ones who will picked for the qualifiers. An extension of this is whether we select (perhaps have already selected) the squad before Strandja or in particular at W66kg and M71kg do we wait for Strandja’s results and pick the team afterwards. Canoe sprint- C2 (Jennifer Egan, Éabha Ni Drisceoil) (V). Europeans are in May, It would be a massive shock if they managed to qualify. Cycling BMX- Ryan Henderson (V). Cycling Mountain Biking- Chris Dawson (V). If only downhill mountain biking was the Olympic discipline. Cycling Track - Women’s team pursuit (4S) (Gillespie, Griffin, Sharpe, Murphy, (Creighton)). Should have done this before Europeans but position looks even safer now. I think should get a madison spot if we did inexplicably fall out of a quota position. Diving- Clare Cryan (L) (q), Jake Passmore (F) (q), Ciara McGing (C). Don’t have much analysis to add here. Clare Cryan just needs to replicate last year’s worlds performance this time and she will be safely qualified, Jake Passmore and Ciara McGing both need significant improvements but especially in Passmore’s case that are well within them. It would be disappointing if we don’t get two qualifiers here albeit it is still possible we get none. Equestrian- Dressage- Anna Merveldt (S). See Oldira's post below Field Hockey- Men (16C), Women (16C). The next big qualifier on the list. Both teams in similar situations where they are underdogs but absolutely capable of qualifying. If either team makes it we will set a significant new record qualified athletes total otherwise it will be close in terms of beating the total we got in Tokyo. It would be a bit of a momentum killer for Irish hockey if both teams fall short but that is the most likely scenario. Golf- Rory McIlroy (S), Shane Lowry (S), Leona Maguire (S), Stephanie Meadow (S). Seamus Power’s form fading as last year went on has really any intrigue out of this from a qualifying perspective. The one thing I would mention is Olivia Mehaffey who is our third ranked woman I think wouldn’t currently be in a qualifying position in the event of an injury, just something to keep an eye on just in case. Gymnastics- Women’s- Emma Slevin (C), Halle Hilton (C). So in terms of what is still available there are 2 apparatus (can compete all-around at Olympics) per apparatus at the world cup series (best 3 results of 4, top 16 score points although the big points are for podiums) and then one all-around quota at Europeans that is, well gone if the Russians decide they want it. So I spent a while trying to figure this out (Helpful table below). I think Halle Hilton’s most likely route is floor which at least last year seemed to be the easiest event to get a quota from. Beam and vault are also possible but less likely. Vault is likely Emma Slevin’s most likely path to a quota spot but if last years results are replicated it would be very difficult to secure a quota. (Last thing is I’m not entirely sure whether one country can qualify multiple athletes through the world cups provided they remain under 3 total qualifiers or if there is only one quota per gender per country available. If it is the latter which I think it is, it might help our chances ever so slightly). Men’s- Eamon Montgomery (C), Adam Steele (V), Dominick Cunningham (C). So Eamon Montgomery would have qualified on floor if it was based off last years world cup series rankings but obviously the degree of difficulty will increase this time around with the Olympics on the line. Realistically he needs to make 3 finals and then score high 13s/14s to put himself in with a chance. At his peak he has shown himself to be capable of that but hasn’t done it consistently. Rhys McClenaghan’s floor plans also come into this. He won trials last November and so has earned the right to compete on floor at the world cups but we are restricted to two entries per event so it would mean neither Dominick Cunnigham or Adam Steele could try to qualify on floor. Vault is likely their best chance and Dom’s scores don’t leave him too far away. If he consistently scores in the 14s which he is capable of he won’t be too far away. Adam competed on pommel at last year’s world cups but there is zero chance he can get a quota there. His best chance is probably to hope the Russians don’t show up at Europeans and then try to nail all-around there but that is very unlikely to yield a quota spot. There were 5/6 athletes who would have qualified ahead of him if it was last year’s Europeans. Score required to make final Vault Bars Beam Floor Men's Floor Men's Vault Cottbus 12.55 12.7 12.833 13 13.933 14.166 Doha 12.599 12.4 12.9 12.233 13.466 14.099 Baku 12.599 12.933 12.733 12.4 13.633 14.183 Cairo 12.583 12.5 12.233 12.2 13.4 13.933 Would be qualifiers last year 3rd (41 points) 8th (25 points) 6th (30 points) 12th (21.5 points) 5th (32 points) 4th (53 points) Judo- Rachael Hawkes (C)?, Joshua Green (V). Rachael Hawkes has slipped significantly in the rankings down to 54th in the W70kg. She would need to move up about 20 places to put herself in with a chance but she was in that range midway through last year. Josh Green is ranked similarly in 53rd in the M73kg but would need to get all the way into the top 25 to have a shot. I don’t think we are getting a judo quota. Modern Pentathlon- Sive Brassil (V) Would need a massive improvement in 2024 to put herself in contention Rowing- Women- Women’s four (S) (4q), Women’s single (V) The four should be a selection battle between last years four (Natalie Long, Sanita Puspure, Imogen Magner, Eimear Lambe) plus the injured Emily Hegarty and always the odd woman out Tara Hanlon (Plus possibly Aisling Hayes/ Holly Davis). I reckon it will end up being (Magner, Puspure, Lambe, Hegarty) although it is possible that Lambe forces her way into the pair. Anyway this boat should qualify. Denmark will also be strong but Canada will likely the boat we need to beat and it is their secondary boat behind their eight. The scenarios where we try to qualify a single are Siobhan McCrohan can’t force her way into the lightweight double and gets a shot here instead, Sanita decides to end her career where she spent most of it or junior world silver medallist Holly Davis is way ahead of schedule. Unfortunately I can’t see a scenario where we try to qualify a quad. An eight might just be doable if the pair doubled up but I don’t think we would consider it. Men- Men’s quad (F) (4q), Men’s four (C), Men’s single (V). A few months removed from a disappointing world champs for the quad (Konan Pazzaia, Ronan Byrne, Andrew Sheahan, Brian Colsh) and the four (Adam Murphy, Fionnan McQuillan Tolan, Jack Dorney, John Kearney), I feel better about both boats chances. I’m not sure we got the combination right for worlds in the quad but I do think there is a fast quad in this squad that is not only good enough to qualify but can be competitive at the Olympics. I do wonder if Brian Colsh will force his way into the double over Daire Lynch although the Philip Doyle, Colsh double was possible in 2022 and they went with Colsh in the single and Pazzaia in the double so they may have already decided Doyle and Colsh aren’t a good combination. Then again I think of all the potential changes to the already qualified combinations (and given how much Maurogiovanni has liked to tinker over the past couple of years there will be one or two) this is the most obvious. The four had a miserable worlds but is certainly capable of rapid improvement given the age profile and pedigree of the athletes in the boat. I do wonder if we would sacrifice the four in favour of just focusing on a quad and potentially moving Kearney or Dorney into that boat. I do hope we don’t operate with stringent sweep and sculling squads this year because allowing movement between the four and the quad could optimise both. The only scenario where we utilise a single is if we give up on the four or the quad. Finally as a bold prediction for the year, I think we might out of choice race a new combination together at the Olympics. We have done it relatively successfully at two consecutive worlds so why not the Olympics. (This is the short version, Originally I wrote 1500 words on rowing) Shooting- Aoife Gormally (C)?, Jack Fairclough (V), Derek Burnett (V). This is the qualification system I understand the least. There are I think 4 potential quota spots still available to us in trap (Gormally and Burnett) and skeet (Fairclough). 1 at Europeans, 2 at a final qualification event and 1 via rankings. Aoife Gormally is the only one who seems remotely likely to get a rankings spot but likely won’t. Swimming- Women- Danielle Hill (L) (q), Victoria Catterson (V), Maria Godden (V), Grace Davison (V), Erin Riordan (V), Niamh Coyne (V), Ellie McCartney (V). So it is still quite unclear how many athletes will qualify via consideration times (OCT) but my quick (not very thorough) calculations suggest not very many (2/3 per event maybe). So I think to qualify individually a swimmer will need to either hit the qualifying time or get very close to it. I’m not sure why Danielle Hill isn’t at worlds but I would be fairly confident she can swim a qualifying time in the 100 back at Irish champs. I wouldn’t completely rule out Catterson or Godden but they both seem very unlikely. Davison and Riordan’s qualification likely depends on the freestyle relay qualifying. Men- Tom Fannon (F) (q), Calum Bain (V), Shane Ryan (F), Darragh Greene (C), Eoin Corby (V), Conor Ferguson (F), Max McCusker (V), Evan Bailey (V) John Shortt (F) (q), Nathan Wiffen (L) (q). The picture on the men’s side of things is quite murky. Tom Fannon showed he was capable of swimming the 50m OQT but has to do it again. (Unless we change our selection policy, which we 100% definitely have never done in the past). Calum Bain isn’t that far behind him. Shane Ryan needs to get back in pb shape to qualify but you wouldn’t put it passed him. Darragh Greene also needs pb shape but is probably less likely to get back to it than Shane. Safer selection for the relay though. Conor Ferguson was unfortunate not to swim an OCT in the 100 back but probably needs to take a couple of tenths off his pb to qualify. I do like his chances though. It should be noted that we can only get 1 OCT qualifier per event so Ryan and Ferguson couldn’t both make it in the 100 back unless they both get the OQT. I think John Shortt will qualify. A 1.1 second pb to the OQT for a 16 year old in year feels very doable. Nathan Wiffen is slightly hindered by not being selected for worlds but if his short course form is anything to go on it would surprising if he didn’t get either of the 800 or 1500m OQTs. Relays- Men’s medley (2q) (L) (WCs Ferguson, Greene, McCusker, Ryan), Women’s medley (q) (S) (Hill, Mcsharry, Walshe, Catterson), Womens 4*100 freestyle (F) (McSharry, Hill, Riordan (Davison), Catterson). The women’s medley relay should be safe and means that Hill and Catterson should qualify regardless of their individual fortunes although not being able to improve on the time at this years worlds will lead to a nervous watch this year. The women’s freestyle 4*100 is obviously in a very precarious position in 15th but it is possible that there will only be 18 or so entries this time around as well. We can improve our time too so it is a bit of a wait and see. I do wonder if we would use both quotas if we do qualify ie Riordan and Davison or use Hill and only use one of the additional relay quotas. The men’s medley is more up in the air. Obviously we are currently 13th and would be pretty hopeful of swimming a faster time at this worlds although I think our attitude going in needs to be that we need a faster time to qualify. Then if we do qualify then we need two individual quotas (although the qualification document mentions scope for potentially a third one being granted). I somewhat doubt that 2 of the relay we put out last year will qualify although I hope we can get there. However if I am right that Tom Fannon and John Shortt both qualify then the relay picks would very likely be Greene and McCusker in that scenario. Taekwondo- Jack Woolley (S) (q), Leroy Nsilu Dilandu (V). It’s annoying that Jack narrowly missed out on a rankings quota but he will be the massive favourite at the European qualifiers. It would be a major shock if Dilandu got close to qualifying. Triathlon- Russell White (C) (135 in the rankings) James Edgar (V) Erin McConnell (V). Russell White has made it up to 135th in the rankings off the back of a series of races towards the end of last year. 85th is currently the last quota spot so it certainly is still possible he could make his second Olympics. Edgar and McConnell are very unlikely to qualify. Weightlifting- Thammy Nguyen (C), Sean Browne (V) Thammy Nguyen it appears would need a 17kg pb to qualify. That seems unlikely to me but I have no idea how the weightlifting quotas will end up looking so it possible she is actually much closer than that. Sean Browne would need an even bigger pb. Very unlikely qualifers In with a chance Fifty-fifty Likely qualifers Safe qualifiers My picks Already qualifed Total Athletics 31 14 12 9 7 20 8 28 Badminton 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 2 Boxing 2 0 2 2 2 5 5 10 Canoe- slalom 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 Canoe- sprint 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cycling- BMX 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cycling- Mountain Biking 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cycling- Road 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 Cycling- Track 0 0 0 0 4 4 0 4 Diving 0 1 1 1 0 2 0 2 Equestrian 0 0 0 0 1 1 6 6 Field Hockey 0 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 Golf 0 0 0 0 4 4 0 4 Gymnastics artistic 1 4 0 0 0 0 1 1 Judo 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Modern Pentathlon 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Rowing 2 4 4 0 4 8 12 20 Rugby Sevens 0 0 0 0 0 0 24 24 Sailing 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 Shooting 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Swimming 10 1 6 3 2 7 3 10 Taekwondo 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 Triathlon 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Weightlifting 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 58 62 25 16 26 54 69 123 My projection Probabalistic E(q) Floor Ceiling 123 129.1 113.35 139.15 So there are lots of flaws with the probabilistic approach including some double counting and also for example a hockey team for example can either qualify 16 or 0 and can never actually qualify the 6 or so hockey qualifiers that that approach projects. Ceiling and Floor are both just me shifting the probabilities up or down for the different categories. I would take them with a grain of salt but I just thought it was an interesting thing to do. Anyway 120 qualifers feels pretty secure although a bad athletics summer is probably the most likely cause if we do fall short of that. A similar exercise that I did last March projected 118 qualifers so seemingly we are at worst on track for the qualifiers that have been decided so far. The one negative is in terms of spread of sports qualified in we look likely to be significantly behind Tokyo. I am fully prepared for a disastrous couple of early season events in rowing/ boxing/ swimming to change this but right now I must say I am very optimistic with where we are both from a qualification and medal perspective.

1. Denmark 2. Johannes Thingnes Boe 3. Kaori Sakamoto 4. Rory McIlroy (Surely he will win another major this year - Me for the 10th year in a row) 5. Canada 6. Spain (I actually think England but I can't bring myself to predict it) 7. USA 8. USA 9. Iga Swiatek 10. Atlanta Braves 11. Carlos Alcaraz 12. Max Verstappen

I agree, Poland is unlikely to actually get 6 qualifiers from the 2 qualifying tournaments and the likes of Rok and Durkacz fell just on the right side of the quota line and aren't necessarily that likely to qualify. To be honest I suspect most countries where these rankings have them qualifying 5/6 more boxers will fall short of that number in reality. I agree that Wojcik and Rygielska should be safe bets to qualify. Most of the best 57kg women have already qualifed and it isn't a particularly deep weight so I do like Szeremeta's chances even if she is only narrowly inside the quota line. Also as I mentioned at the start W54kg was an absolute nightmare to rank and there really isn't much at all between the top 18 or so at one point I had Drabik in the top 10 so certainly not a gauranteed qualifier but I'd feel pretty good about her chances too. Look Bereznicki is a talented boxer and can absolutely beat the boxers just ahead of them in the rankings. I do think he is a tier below the likes of Nanitzanian, Okafor and Kartsan so for me it is tough to see him qualifying but absolutely he has a case to be in the top 25/26. I am just a little bit lower on him. Absolutely, work away.

I did actually see this result, It was just an error that she wasn't listed at the bottom of the rankings. I put her 29th but obviously beating Cavanagh merits putting her higher but at the same time her historic results aren't very good. Thanks, Wasn't aware of any of that.

Finally I wanted to do a similar thing the country ranking above but for continents. Last time I brought like this up on this site I managed to start a very circular and aimless debate about the merit of continental quotas so to be clear this is much more about comparing Europe, Asia and the Americas than the merit of Oceania's quotas. Also the continental quotas were assigned based off performances in Tokyo where Russia won six medals so while Asia matches Europe in some of the men's weights points wise. It doesn't necessarily mean the quota allocations were wrong. Continental Breakdown [Ranking points (Number of boxers)] Africa Americas Asia Europe Oceania W50kg 7 (1) 25 (2) 97 (8) 81 (9) 0 (0) W54kg 0 (0) 10 (2) 112 (9) 88 (9) 0 (0) W57kg 3 (1) 36 (4) 77 (6) 94 (9) 0 (0) W60kg 4 (1) 45 (4) 72 (6) 89 (9) 0 (0) W66kg 30 (2) 58 (6) 45 (4) 77 (8) 0 (0) W75kg 14 (2) 55 (4) 43 (4) 82 (9) 16 (1) Women's Continental Quotas 11 16 20 22 6 Projected Qualifing Tournaments Quotas 1 7 14 22 0 Women's Total 58 (7) 229 (22) 446 (37) 511 (53) 16 (1) M51kg 8 (1) 34 (3) 95 (8) 73 (8) 0 (0) M57kg 0 (0) 61 (4) 82 (8) 67 (8) 0 (0) M63.5kg 0 (0) 62 (7) 65 (4) 72 (8) 11 (1) M71kg 0 (0) 48 (5) 67 (5) 95 (10) 0 (0) M80kg 0 (0) 51 (4) 81 (6) 78 (10) 0 (0) M92kg 0 (0) 73 (6) 34 (4) 100 (9) 3 (1) M92+kg 5 (2) 44 (4) 49 (4) 101 (9) 11 (1) Men's Continental Quotas 7 14 14 22 7 Projected Qualifing Tournaments Quotas 0 17 17 22 0 Men's total 13 (3) 373 (33) 473 (39) 586 (62) 25 (3) Continental Quotas 18 30 34 44 13 Projected Qualifing Tournaments Quotas 1 24 31 44 0 Total 71 (10) 602 (55) 919 (76) 1097 (115) 41 (4) ▪ Ranking points system used here is a linear ranking of the top 20 (20, 19, ..... , 2, 1) in each weightclass. ▪ Rankings cells show: Cumalative ranking points (Number of boxers in top 20)

Country Total Ranking points Women's ranking points (Ranking) Men's rankings points (Ranking) Boxers (W,M) Projected Qualifiers (Qualified) Realistic qualification ceiling Projected Olympic medallists Olympic Medal ceiling 1 Uzbekistan 623 131 (19) 492 (1) 13 (6,7) 8 (4) 10 6 8 2 Kazakhstan 593 219 (10) 374 (2) 13 (6,7) 9 (2) 11 5 6 3 Ireland 583 355 (2) 228 (10) 12 (6,6) 10 (5) 11 5 6 4 USA 540 172 (14) 368 (3) 13 (6,7) 11 (5) 13 3 5 5 China 516 357 (1) 159 (21) 13 (6,7) 9 (7) 10 5 6 6 France 505 245 (5) 260 (6) 13 (6,7) 8 (7) 11 2 6 7 Brazil 504 228 (9) 276 (5) 13 (6,7) 11 (9) 11 2 6 8 Colombia 471 234 (6) 237 (8) 13 (6,7) 9 (3) 10 1 4 9 Great Britain 465 231 (8) 234 (9) 13 (6,7) 7 (3) 11 0 4 10 India 448 267 (3) 181 (18) 13 (6,7) 6 (4) 9 2 6 11 Turkey 436 256 (4) 180 (20) 13 (6,7) 8 (6) 8 2 4 12 Thailand 419 233 (7) 186 (16) 11 (6,5) 7 (4) 9 2 4 13 Italy 400 213 (12) 187 (15) 13 (6,7) 6 (4) 8 2 3 14 Ukraine 384 140 (18) 244 (7) 13 (6,7) 4 (1) 10 2 3 15 Bulgaria 358 155 (17) 203 (14) 10 (4,6) 4 (3) 8 2 4 16 Cuba 313 11 (68) 302 (4) 10 (3,7) 5 (3) 7 1 3 17 Spain 302 86 (27) 216 (13) 10 (3,7) 6 (2) 7 0 1 18 Chinese Taipei 280 219 (10) 61 (40) 8 (4,4) 6 (4) 7 2 2 19 Armenia 266 85 (28) 181 (18) 13 (6,7) 4 (0) 7 0 2 20 Germany 263 79 (33) 184 (17) 12 (5,7) 3 (0) 9 1 1 21 Mongolia 254 131 (19) 123 (27) 13 (6,7) 4 (2) 6 1 1 21 Poland 254 174 (13) 80 (35) 13 (6,7) 6 (0) 7 0 0 23 Azerbaijan 250 29 (55) 221 (12) 12 (5,7) 3 (2) 6 0 1 24 Canada 247 170 (15) 77 (36) 13 (6,7) 3 (2) 6 1 1 25 Australia 245 119 (24) 126 (25) 13 (6,7) 12 (12) 12 0 1 26 Philippines 243 90 (26) 153 (22) 10 (4,6) 3 (1) 5 0 3 27 Georgia 230 7 (77) 223 (11) 8 (1,7) 3 (1) 6 1 2 28 Serbia 225 128 (21) 97 (32) 11 (6,5) 2 (2) 6 0 0 29 Japan 224 106 (25) 118 (28) 10 (5,5) 5 (2) 7 0 2 30 Mexico 208 68 (37) 140 (24) 11 (5,6) 3 (2) 4 1 1 31 North Korea 202 165 (16) 37 (52) 9 (5,4) 2 (2) 3 1 2 32 Algeria 193 120 (23) 73 (37) 12 (5,7) 5 (5) 5 1 1 33 Dominican Republic 189 38 (46) 151 (23) 13 (6,7) 3 (1) 5 0 2 34 Venezuela 184 121 (22) 63 (39) 9 (6,3) 2 (1) 5 0 0 35 Tajikistan 148 34 (52) 114 (30) 12 (5,7) 3 (2) 4 0 1 36 Croatia 143 33 (53) 110 (31) 8 (3,5) 2 (1) 3 0 1 37 Ecuador 140 23 (59) 117 (29) 11 (4,7) 3 (2) 4 0 0 38 Hungary 129 36 (51) 93 (33) 11 (4,7) 2 (2) 5 0 0 39 Jordan 127 3 (90) 124 (26) 8 (2,6) 1 (0) 3 0 0 40 Morocco 123 81 (31) 42 (46) 13 (6,7) 3 (3) 3 0 0 40 Mozambique 123 85 (28) 38 (48) 10 (5,5) 2 (1) 3 0 0 40 Argentina 123 82 (30) 41 (47) 10 (6,4) 1 (0) 4 0 0 43 South Korea 117 80 (32) 37 (52) 13 (6,7) 1 (0) 1 0 0 44 Denmark 113 28 (56) 85 (34) 5 (2,3) 1 (1) 3 1 1 45 Romania 98 70 (35) 28 (62) 6 (3,3) 1 (1) 3 0 1 46 Norway 97 45 (44) 52 (44) 5 (2,3) 1 (0) 3 0 0 47 Sweden 85 70 (35) 15 (83) 4 (3,1) 2 (1) 3 0 0 48 Nigeria 84 55 (41) 29 (60) 9 (6,3) 3 (3) 3 0 0 49 Vietnam 80 71 (34) 9 (97) 8 (5,3) 1 (0) 1 0 1 50 Puerto Rico 79 57 (39) 22 (71) 6 (3,3) 2 (1) 3 0 0 51 Slovakia 76 38 (46) 38 (48) 6 (3,3) 0 (0) 2 0 0 52 Czech Republic 73 55 (41) 18 (79) 12 (6,6) 0 (0) 1 0 0 52 Finland 73 65 (38) 8 (101) 5 (4,1) 1 (0) 2 0 0 54 Zambia 71 13 (67) 58 (42) 8 (4,4) 1 (1) 1 0 0 55 Kyrgyzstan 70 0 (116) 70 (38) 7 (0,7) 0 (0) 1 0 0 56 Panama 68 57 (39) 11 (92) 5 (2,3) 1 (1) 1 0 1 57 DR Congo 67 21 (60) 46 (45) 12 (6,6) 1 (1) 2 0 0 57 Belgium 67 38 (46) 29 (60) 3 (2,1) 2 (2) 2 0 0 57 New Zealand 67 42 (45) 25 (64) 12 (6,6) 0 (0) 0 0 0 60 Egypt 66 9 (73) 57 (43) 11 (4,7) 3 (3) 4 0 0 Country Global Ranking (points) Women's rankings (points) Men's rankings (points) Boxers (W, M) Projected Qualifiers (Qualified) Realistic qualification ceiling Projected medallist Medal ceiling Russia (WC squad) 586 (3) 220 (10) 366 (4) 13 (6,7) 12 13 3 5 Belarus (WC squad) 142 (37) 36 (52) 106 (32) 7 (4,3) 1 3 1 1 ● Ranking system is a scale starting at 77 and then declining at declining intervals down to 6 points for the 40th ranked boxer in each weight class. Beyond the top 40 boxers in a weightclass the points assigned are a function of the total number of boxers in a given weightclass. ● It's a predominantly arbitrary point allocation system. ● Country rankings are a cumalative total of their respective indivual boxers ranking points. Highest possible country score is a 1000. ● Projected qualifiers refers to the number of boxers already qualified per nation plus the boxers that would fill the world qualifying tournament quota places based on my rankings. Naturally, they do not include the nine universality quota places. ● Realistic qualification ceiling is the number of boxers I perceive to be above a given threshold in every weight class below which I think a boxer would need a very lucky draw or favorable judging decisions to be in with a chance of qualifying at the world qualiying tournaments. ● Projected medallists are just the top four in every weightclass although it should be noted that these rankings are an assesment of how I would rank things now and not necessarily a projection for how I see the Olympics playing out. ● Medal ceiling is the total number of boxers who I would consider medal contenders. Medal contenders are roughly the top 8/9 ranked boxers in every weightclass but some weightclasses do differ slightly from that (High of 10, low of 6). Boxers outside this threshold will obviously win some medals at the Olympics given how volatile and unpredictable boxing can be but the vast majority of Olympic medals will be won by boxers inside these thresholds. So I designed a ranking system outlined in part above to look at which countries had the strongest Olympic squads. This is not an assesment of the best boxing countries just how good they're Olympic squad is. Most of the results line up with what I expected but obviously there are a few strange ones.