Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024 Medal Predictions Road to Paris 2024

[Jinzha 529]

35 minutes ago, Sindo said:

Comparing to our Latest World Championships Medal Count, France has 13 more gold medals, which could be explainable with the host country advantage. But GBR has 25 gold medals in our table and only 17 in Gracenote table, that's a huge gap

The  prediction is surprisingly close, with only 1 more gold and 1 less bronze in the Gracenote table. 12 gold medals is our best result ever, so if we get 15 or 16 I would be very surprised! A lot will depend on whether the rowing squad is still as dominant as they were at the 2023 World Championship. Five golds in rowing would be an incredible result to repeat.

[Dragon 1,702]

2 hours ago, Sindo said:

Comparing to our Latest World Championships Medal Count, France has 13 more gold medals, which could be explainable with the host country advantage. But GBR has 25 gold medals in our table and only 17 in Gracenote table, that's a huge gap

Gracenote has always underestimated GBR medals since 2012

[TeamGB 71]

@Rafa Maciel Do you know where to find the specific medal breakdown?

[Rafa Maciel 1,259]

26 minutes ago, TeamGB said:

@Rafa Maciel Do you know where to find the specific medal breakdown?

I don't think they publish the breakdown - or at least not for free  The only way I've been able to find information about specific predictions is by trawling through various media outlets. Unfortunately, a lot of them are just quoting the headline numbers without going into specifics. 

[mpjmcevoy 202]

2 hours ago, Dragon said:

Gracenote has always underestimated GBR medals since 2012

You'd think by now they'd have worked out the GBR 'peaking' strategy...

 

From my own viewpoint, I think GBR are going to have a lot of  'on the edge'rs; it's hard to predict how well some will do in the white heat, or if injury nails a few. Seem to be an unusual number of 'lone stars' - Gary Roberts, Sky Brown, Penny Healy, who while genuine hopes have no back up in their sport if it doesn't hapen. If I were to guess, I can see Boxing being this years Rowing (the sport with an inquiry after the games), I see a Rowing return to strength, and perhaps a Canoe Slalom hidden gem if all the pieces fall.

 

Not sure what the record is for medals in different sports for Ireland at one games, but I feel very hopeful whatever it is will be beaten - Gymnastics, boxing, rowing, sailing, swimming, golf and athletics all have genuines with at least punchers chances in rugby sevens and Equestrian and outside shots in Taekwondo, and track cycling

[Rafa Maciel 1,259]

29 minutes ago, mpjmcevoy said:

Seem to be an unusual number of 'lone stars' - Gary Roberts, Sky Brown, Penny Healy, who while genuine hopes have no back up in their sport if it doesn't hapen. 

For the life of me I can't think who Gary Roberts is and it is going to bug me all night.  

[mpjmcevoy 202]

4 minutes ago, Rafa Maciel said:

For the life of me I can't think who Gary Roberts is and it is going to bug me all night.  

My bad!! Tony Roberts. Climber

 

[PatyOlympic 41]

7 hours ago, Rafa Maciel said:

 Nielsen's Gracenote Virtual Medal Table - January 2024 

 

 

At the 6-month countdown to Paris, Gracenote have released their updated virtual medal table:

 

NOC	Gold	Silver	Bronze	Total	Change Since Last Release
	37	46	46	129	Up 3 medals overall - 2 additional silver and 1 additional bronze
	35	28	22	85	Up 7 medals in overall - 3 additional silver and 4 additional bronze.
	26	16	11	53	Down 1 medal overall - 1 gold downgraded to silver and 1 bronze lost.
	17	22	25	64	Down 2 silver medals offset by 1 additional bronze for overall drop of 1 medal in total.
	17	15	24	56	Down 2 medals in total - 1 additional silver medal gained offset by drop of 3 bronze medals.
	16	9	10	35	Down 2 medals in total - dropping 1 silver and 1 bronze medal.
	15	17	16	48	Down 2 medals in total - dropping 2 bronze medals.
	13	12	22	47	Down 1 medal in total - 2 silver medals dropped offset by an additional bronze medal.
	10	14	15	39	Up 2 medals overall - 1 additional silver and 1 additional bronze.
	7	6	10	23	Moves into top ten (replaces Canada)

 

I woud love to see South Korea back into top-10 again. But I think it will be a tough competition with Canada, Brazil and Spain.

[phelps 6,878]

1 hour ago, mpjmcevoy said:

My bad!! Tony Roberts. Climber

 

actually, it's not even Tony, but Toby Roberts 

 

p.s. I don't think he has a chance to win gold, maybe a medal, but gold would definitely be a surprise

[Federer91 2,140]

Usually 7-8 golds are enough for top 10 in the medal table, but with Russia having almost no participation, the threshold could rise to 10 golds.