Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024 Medal Predictions

[JoshMartini007 2,871]

1 hour ago, Federer91 said:

Usually 7-8 golds are enough for top 10 in the medal table, but with Russia having almost no participation, the threshold could rise to 10 golds. 

Perhaps, but there's a considerable drop from the top 9. The tenth rank nation could have 10+ fewer total medals than the 9th rank. Unless they get lucky with golds they will struggle to break double digits.

[Rafa Maciel 1,737]

3 hours ago, mpjmcevoy said:

My bad!! Tony Roberts. Climber

 

Yeah I wouldn't have got that any time soon - and unfortunately now all I keep hearing in my mind is the guy from Only Fools and Horses shouting "Gary!" (That reference will mean nothing to a lot of international posters)

[Antooo 28]

8 hours ago, TeamGB said:

@Rafa Maciel Do you know where to find the specific medal breakdown?

I remember that for the previous Olympics it was possible to see the details of the medals for each discipline so idk why now, gracenote doesnt publish it...

[Rafa Maciel 1,737]

Was so distracted by random boxing federation Facebook pages that I missed the latest update to the Gracenote prediction.

 

 Nielsen's Gracenote Virtual Medal Table - February 2024 

 

 

 

NOC	Gold	Silver	Bronze	Total	Change Since Last Release
	37	37	47	121	Drops 8 medals in total with 9 fewer silver medals being offset by 1 additional bronze. At 121, this is the lowest number of medals projected since the table was initiated.
	37	28	22	85	No change in the total number of medals but it does include 2 additional gold medals.
	27	14	11	52	Down 1 medal overall but Gold increase by 1
	17	9	13	39	An increase of 4 medals in total including 1 gold and 3 Bronze medals. Sees NED moving up to 4th in the table from 6th last month.
	16	24	25	65	Up 1 medal overall but total number of Gold drops by 1 which is offset by 2 additional Silver medals.
	15	17	24	53	Drops 3 medals overall as few bronze medals are won. 2 Golds are downgraded to Silver.
	14	16	17	47	No change in the overall number of medals but team projected to win 1 additional Gold and 4 Silver.
	9	15	19	43	Gains 4 medals in total but 1 Gold is downgraded to Silver.
	9	2	7	18	Small overall volume (would be ranked 13th by volume) moves into the top 10 by virtue of the fact that half of their projected medals are Gold
	8	21	17	46	The biggest shift in the projection this month - although the overall total is down just 2, It's 7 fewer Golds with 4 downgraded to Silver.

 

Huge caveat here - I think it is safe to assume that the projection has been heavily impacted by the results of the Doha World Aquatic Championships hence the big drop in the  Gold volume which is unlikely to be the case when we get to Paris. 

 

[LuizGuilherme 340]

17 minutes ago, Rafa Maciel said:

Was so distracted by random boxing federation Facebook pages that I missed the latest update to the Gracenote prediction.

 

 Nielsen's Gracenote Virtual Medal Table - February 2024 

 

 

 

NOC	Gold	Silver	Bronze	Total	Change Since Last Release
	37	37	47	121	Drops 8 medals in total with 9 fewer silver medals being offset by 1 additional bronze. At 121, this is the lowest number of medals projected since the table was initiated.
	37	28	22	85	No change in the total number of medals but it does include 2 additional gold medals.
	27	14	11	52	Down 1 medal overall but Gold increase by 1
	17	9	13	39	An increase of 4 medals in total including 1 gold and 3 Bronze medals. Sees NED moving up to 4th in the table from 6th last month.
	16	24	25	65	Up 1 medal overall but total number of Gold drops by 1 which is offset by 2 additional Silver medals.
	15	17	24	53	Drops 3 medals overall as few bronze medals are won. 2 Golds are downgraded to Silver.
	14	16	17	47	No change in the overall number of medals but team projected to win 1 additional Gold and 4 Silver.
	9	15	19	43	Gains 4 medals in total but 1 Gold is downgraded to Silver.
	9	2	7	18	Small overall volume (would be ranked 13th by volume) moves into the top 10 by virtue of the fact that half of their projected medals are Gold
	8	21	17	46	The biggest shift in the projection this month - although the overall total is down just 2, It's 7 fewer Golds with 4 downgraded to Silver.

 

Huge caveat here - I think it is safe to assume that the projection has been heavily impacted by the results of the Doha World Aquatic Championships hence the big drop in the  Gold volume which is unlikely to be the case when we get to Paris. 

 

At the moment i think Brazil gonna win onle one or two Gold medals, our chance. We have a lot of good shots for medals, but no one of them (maybe surdina?) looks favourite for a Gold medal.

[Josh 13,631]

24 minutes ago, Rafa Maciel said:

Was so distracted by random boxing federation Facebook pages that I missed the latest update to the Gracenote prediction.

 

 Nielsen's Gracenote Virtual Medal Table - February 2024 

 

 

 

NOC	Gold	Silver	Bronze	Total	Change Since Last Release
	37	37	47	121	Drops 8 medals in total with 9 fewer silver medals being offset by 1 additional bronze. At 121, this is the lowest number of medals projected since the table was initiated.
	37	28	22	85	No change in the total number of medals but it does include 2 additional gold medals.
	27	14	11	52	Down 1 medal overall but Gold increase by 1
	17	9	13	39	An increase of 4 medals in total including 1 gold and 3 Bronze medals. Sees NED moving up to 4th in the table from 6th last month.
	16	24	25	65	Up 1 medal overall but total number of Gold drops by 1 which is offset by 2 additional Silver medals.
	15	17	24	53	Drops 3 medals overall as few bronze medals are won. 2 Golds are downgraded to Silver.
	14	16	17	47	No change in the overall number of medals but team projected to win 1 additional Gold and 4 Silver.
	9	15	19	43	Gains 4 medals in total but 1 Gold is downgraded to Silver.
	9	2	7	18	Small overall volume (would be ranked 13th by volume) moves into the top 10 by virtue of the fact that half of their projected medals are Gold
	8	21	17	46	The biggest shift in the projection this month - although the overall total is down just 2, It's 7 fewer Golds with 4 downgraded to Silver.

 

Huge caveat here - I think it is safe to assume that the projection has been heavily impacted by the results of the Doha World Aquatic Championships hence the big drop in the  Gold volume which is unlikely to be the case when we get to Paris. 

 

is only projected to finish with 4 golds and 20 total, but I’m assuming it’s also because of the inflated results of the Doha World Aquatic Championships. 

Edited March 10, 2024 by Josh

[Joshi 146]

On 2/1/2024 at 1:41 AM, Rafa Maciel said:

Gracenote's gold medal projections for  seem uncontroversial (although the keirin is always a bit of a lottery):

 

Men's Rugby 7's Team

Women's Rugby 7's Team

Women's Keirin: Ellesse Andrews

Canoe Sprint - Women's K1 500m: Lisa Carrington

 

 

I doubt the NZ Mens 7s team will be winning gold or even medalling. But I can however see Lisa Carrington contributing to 3 gold medals however.

[Rafa Maciel 1,737]

3 minutes ago, Joshi said:

I doubt the NZ Mens 7s team will be winning gold or even medalling. But I can however see Lisa Carrington contributing to 3 gold medals however.

I'd be surprised if they didn't medal - they won 5 of the HSBC 7's events in the '22/'23 season (which I assume was the results used for Gracenote's prediction). Granted their form hasn't been as dominant this season, but they have still managed to medal in 2 out of the 5 rounds so far. 

 

[vinipereira 3,513]

51 minutes ago, LuizGuilherme said:

At the moment i think Brazil gonna win onle one or two Gold medals, our chance. We have a lot of good shots for medals, but no one of them (maybe surdina?) looks favourite for a Gold medal.

I agree but I hope for at least 4 gold medals, which would be better than the 3 of 2008/2012. No way we can repeat the 7 golds of 2016/2020.

 

Don't know what names/teams Gracenote is predicting for gold but maybe they were considering another one in Football which won't happen since the team didn't even qualify. Rebeca will only win a gold if Biles somehow fails in Vault. Isaquias, Ana Marcela, Martine/Kahena are not as regular as before and probably will contend for bronze. I guess Beach Volleyball/Surfing/Skateboarding are our best chances but nothing too sure. Maybe another surprising gold in Boxing or even Judo?

[Rafa Maciel 1,737]

With the  Swimming Champs done, I've got time to look at some of the reporting ahead of the Olympics as media outlets begin to consider medal prospects.

 

These are the predicted athletics medalists (track only) from Pulse Sports - a Kenyan media outlet. Please don't shoot the messenger - this isn't an endorsement of their prediction. I share it purely for information and discussion.

 

Men's 100m:

 Noah Lyles

 Ferdinand Omanyala

 Letsile Tebogo

 

Men's 200m:

 Noah Lyles

 Letsile Tebogo

 Zharnel Hughes

 

Men's 400m:

 Steven Gardiner

 Antonio Watson

 Muzala Samukonga

 

Men's 800m:

 Emmanuel Wanyonyi

 Marco Arop

 Emmanuel Korir

 

Men's 1500m:

 Jakob Ingebrigtsen

 Josh Kerr

 Yared Nuguse

 

Men's 5000m:

 Jakob Ingebrigtsen

 Jacob Krop

 Yomif Kejelcha

 

Men's 10000m:

 Joshua Cheptegei

 Jacob Kiplimo

 Daniel Simiu

 

Men's 3000m Steeple:

 Soufiane El Bakkali

 Lamecha Girma

 Simon Koech

 

Men's 110m Hurdles:

 Grant Holloway

 Hansle Parchment

 Rasheed Broadbell

 

Men's 400m Hurdles:

 Karsten Warholm

 Rai Benjamin

 Alison Dos Santos

 

Men's Marathon:

 Benson Kipruto

 Sisay Lemma

 Eliud Kipchoge

 

 

 

Women's 100m:

 Sha'Carri Richardson

 Elaine Thompson-Herah

 Shelly-Anne Fraser-Pryce

 

Women's 200m:

 Shericka Jackson

 Elaine Thompson-Herah

 Gabby Thomas

 

Women's 400m:

 Shaunae Miller-Uibo

 Marileidy Paulino

 Salwa Eid Naser

 

Women's 800m:

 Mary Moraa

 Aithing Mu

 Keely Hodgkinson

 

Women's 1500m:

 Faith Kipyegon

 

 

 

Women's 5000m:

 Faith Kipyegon

 Beatrice Chebet

 Letesenbet Gidey

 

Women's 10000m:

 Gudaf Tsegay

 Letesenbet Gidey

 Sifan Hassan

 

Women's 3000m Steeple:

 Beatrice Chepkoech

 Winifred Yavi

 Faith Cherotich

 

Men's 110m Hurdles:

 Tobi Amusan

 Deveyne Charlton

 Cyrena Samba-Mayela

 

Men's 400m Hurdles:

 Femke Bol

 Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone

 Rushell Clayton

 

Women's Marathon:

 Tigst Assefa

 Peres Jepchirchir

 Amane Beriso