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JoshMartini007

Totallympics Silver Medallist
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  1. Like
    JoshMartini007 got a reaction from Benolympique in Rowing FISA American Olympic Games Qualifier 2021   
    Pretty much, worst case scenario 2/3 of those nations will qualify. For Nicaragua they need two of to qualify elsewhere as everyone who is qualified in Final B is guaranteed to have a higher placing boat in a different event.
  2. Sad
    JoshMartini007 got a reaction from Benolympique in Rowing FISA American Olympic Games Qualifier 2021   
    Breakdown of which final each nation qualified to...
     
    M1x
    Final A -
    Final B -
    Final C -
     
    W1x
    Final A -
    Final B -
     
    LM2x
    Final A -
    Final B -
     
    LW2x
    Final A -
  3. Like
    JoshMartini007 got a reaction from Laraja in Rowing FISA American Olympic Games Qualifier 2021   
    I constructed a simulation, but in rowing times can be quite different between heats due to each race having a different strategy. Additionally some rowers may be conserving strength and thus underperformed during the heats.
     
     
    M1x - *
    W1x -
    LM2x -
    LW2x - *
     
    Brazil has two boats with the second fastest time and thus must choose one of them. If they choose the LW2x boat the M1x quota will be reallocated to . If they choose the M1x boat the LW2x boat will be reallocated to and the LM2x boat that Peru would have qualified would have to be reallocated as there are no more eligible boats (basically a perfect storm occurred where all the other nations competing qualify somewhere else).
     
  4. Like
    JoshMartini007 got a reaction from Benolympique in Rowing FISA American Olympic Games Qualifier 2021   
    I constructed a simulation, but in rowing times can be quite different between heats due to each race having a different strategy. Additionally some rowers may be conserving strength and thus underperformed during the heats.
     
     
    M1x - *
    W1x -
    LM2x -
    LW2x - *
     
    Brazil has two boats with the second fastest time and thus must choose one of them. If they choose the LW2x boat the M1x quota will be reallocated to . If they choose the M1x boat the LW2x boat will be reallocated to and the LM2x boat that Peru would have qualified would have to be reallocated as there are no more eligible boats (basically a perfect storm occurred where all the other nations competing qualify somewhere else).
     
  5. Thanks
    JoshMartini007 got a reaction from dcro in Rowing FISA American Olympic Games Qualifier 2021   
    I constructed a simulation, but in rowing times can be quite different between heats due to each race having a different strategy. Additionally some rowers may be conserving strength and thus underperformed during the heats.
     
     
    M1x - *
    W1x -
    LM2x -
    LW2x - *
     
    Brazil has two boats with the second fastest time and thus must choose one of them. If they choose the LW2x boat the M1x quota will be reallocated to . If they choose the M1x boat the LW2x boat will be reallocated to and the LM2x boat that Peru would have qualified would have to be reallocated as there are no more eligible boats (basically a perfect storm occurred where all the other nations competing qualify somewhere else).
     
  6. Thanks
    JoshMartini007 got a reaction from Benolympique in Summer Olympic Games 2020 Team Sizes   
    Three quotas will be awarded in the lightweight double sculls events
  7. Like
    JoshMartini007 got a reaction from Vic Liu in Sailing ASAF Nacra 17 Foiling Asian Championships 2021   
    The depth in Asia is quite shallow, at the 2019 Worlds only China, Japan and Singapore competed. It was one of two Olympic events not to be held at the 2018 Asian Games (the other being Finn class)
     
    Based on the results, Singapore has a very good chance at qualifying (they finished tied with the Chinese boat) so unless Liu and Lim are no longer competing it would be quite unfortunate for them to not make the trip to Shanghai.
  8. Like
    JoshMartini007 got a reaction from Olympian1010 in Commonwealth Games 2022   
    One of the biggest obstacles is some nations wouldn't be eligible to participate in qualification, mostly due to being part of Great Britain and not having a recognized separate federation within certain sports.
     
    The other issue of course is it would kill the participant rate of the smaller nations. Though that can be solved by giving every nation 15-20 quotas to use as they like (minus events where a set number of participants are required) and subtract one for every athlete qualified (not including team events)
  9. Like
    JoshMartini007 got a reaction from dcro in Women's Rugby Sevens Qualification to Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympic Games   
    South Africa has lowered their strict requirements for qualifying to the Olympics. If a team (or athlete) can show they are competitive then they will accept quotas won during continental qualifiers.
     
    For field hockey, they likely used a provision in the qualification document that states nations must rank in the top 20 in order to be considered for a continental reallocation as an argument that the FIH considers a top 20 world ranking as competitive.
     
    For water polo, their federation likely used South Africa's performance at the 2019 World Aquatics Championships where the men finished 12th and the women finished 14th as proof they are competitive (even though we all know the truth).
     
    Sadly for women's rugby sevens they were unable to place a passable argument. The team failed to qualify as a core team for every world series during this Olympic cycle and the team finished 14th at the 2018 Sevens World Cup and unlike water polo, I imagine the South African Olympic Committee knows more about rugby sevens and whether or not that was a competitive performance.
  10. Like
    JoshMartini007 got a reaction from intoronto in Summer Olympic Games 2032 Bid Process   
    What does politics have to do with anything? This is about sports. Should Denmark not be allowed to host the men's handball championships because they aren't as relevant politically, yet are one of the top nations in the sport?
     
    I also don't mind Austria or Switzerland hosting the Winter Olympics because they too are quite relevant in winter sports. Similarly the Netherlands could host the Summer Olympics if it wants to. We are also talking about a 32 year gap, in different cities so I don't see quite the fuss.
  11. Like
    JoshMartini007 got a reaction from Olympian1010 in Summer Olympic Games 2032 Bid Process   
    A country finishing in the top 10 at every Summer Olympics since 1992 is irrelevant at the games?
     
    Haha...
  12. Wow!
    JoshMartini007 got a reaction from Makedonas in Rowing FISA American Olympic Games Qualifier 2021   
    Actually looking at the qualification document, the quota will be reallocated to the highest ranked boat from an NOC not yet qualified at the World Championships. Only after none remains that a spot would open up at the final qualification event.
  13. Like
    JoshMartini007 got a reaction from Laraja in Boxing Qualification to Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympic Games   
    Couldn't they host a European qualifier in May like they are for Pan America?
     
    I mean, if they are still cancelling events in May then it is highly likely the Olympics themselves will be cancelled.
  14. Like
    JoshMartini007 got a reaction from Makedonas in Men's Water Polo FINA Olympic Games Qualification Tournament 2021   
    With the exception of Croatia, Group B is looking to be quite even. You can make an argument for the five nations to rank in any order between 2-6.
  15. Sad
    JoshMartini007 got a reaction from Benolympique in Men's Water Polo Tournament at the Summer Olympic Games 2020   
    Turkey forced to withdraw due to too many positive cases.
     
    Canada got its win over Brazil, but Georgia gave Greece quite the scare, they were tied going into the final quarter and Greece only won by a single goal. Canada needs at a minimum to finish third in this group which means they need to defeat Georgia (or start beating Greece/Montenegro now rather than later).
  16. Like
    JoshMartini007 got a reaction from rafalgorka in Winter Olympic Games 2022 Early Qualification Predictions   
    I have a men's and women's single athlete qualifying for Azerbaijan.
    Yeah, I was afraid that might happen in alpine (and cross-country) skiing. He's still listed as active on FIS which makes confirming status harder.
    For Monaco I have one sled in 2-man and one sled in 4-man which gives four athletes since the driver is the same person.
     
    It's about the same size as 2018 if you add in the women's ice hockey team.
     
    Germany would also have the fourth largest team (behind US, Russia and Canada).
  17. Like
    JoshMartini007 got a reaction from MHSN in Winter Olympic Games 2022 Early Qualification Predictions   
    Here's my simulation of the number of athletes for each country. Note I did not take into account injuries (or people missing out due to COVID) and potential athletes that will reactivate themselves during the 2021-2022 season (since I have no information on them). In total 91 nations will participate. Let's see how far off I am in 2022.
     
    Albania - 1
    American Samoa - 1
    Andorra - 5
    Argentina - 9
    Armenia - 4
    Australia - 34
    Austria - 110
    Azerbaijan - 3
    Belarus - 38
    Belgium - 18
    Bolivia - 2
    Bosnia and Herzegovina - 5
    Brazil - 8
    Bulgaria - 15
    Canada - 206
    Cayman Islands - 1
    Chile - 3
    China - 167
    Colombia - 1
    Croatia - 9
    Cyprus - 1
    Czech Republic - 114
    Denmark - 3
    Ecuador - 2
    Estonia - 26
    Finland - 98
    France - 97
    Georgia - 7
    Germany - 181
    Great Britain - 62
    Greece - 5
    Haiti - 1
    Hong Kong - 3
    Hungary - 13
    Iceland - 5
    Iran - 4
    Ireland - 4
    Israel - 4
    Italy - 129
    Jamaica - 1
    Japan - 134
    Kazakhstan - 31
    Kenya - 1
    Kosovo - 1
    Kyrgyzstan - 1
    Latvia - 61
    Lebanon - 3
    Liechtenstein - 6
    Lithuania - 12
    Luxembourg
    Madagascar - 1
    Malaysia - 2
    Malta - 1
    Mexico - 2
    Moldova - 5
    Monaco - 6
    Mongolia - 2
    Montenegro - 3
    Morocco - 1
    Netherlands - 42
    New Zealand - 16
    Nigeria - 2
    North Korea - 2
    North Macedonia - 3
    Norway - 115
    Pakistan - 2
    Peru - 2
    Philippines - 1
    Poland - 51
    Portugal - 2
    Puerto Rico - 1
    Romania - 21
    Russia - 209
    San Marino - 1
    Serbia - 5
    Slovakia - 48
    Slovenia - 45
    South Africa - 1
    South Korea - 69
    Spain - 13
    Sweden - 117
    Switzerland - 178
    Chinese Taipei - 3
    Thailand - 4
    Timor-Leste - 1
    Trinidad and Tobago - 1
    Turkey - 6
    Ukraine - 41
    United States - 219
    Uzbekistan - 1
    Virgin Islands - 1
  18. Love
    JoshMartini007 got a reaction from Benolympique in Winter Olympic Games 2022 Early Qualification Predictions   
    Here's my simulation of the number of athletes for each country. Note I did not take into account injuries (or people missing out due to COVID) and potential athletes that will reactivate themselves during the 2021-2022 season (since I have no information on them). In total 91 nations will participate. Let's see how far off I am in 2022.
     
    Albania - 1
    American Samoa - 1
    Andorra - 5
    Argentina - 9
    Armenia - 4
    Australia - 34
    Austria - 110
    Azerbaijan - 3
    Belarus - 38
    Belgium - 18
    Bolivia - 2
    Bosnia and Herzegovina - 5
    Brazil - 8
    Bulgaria - 15
    Canada - 206
    Cayman Islands - 1
    Chile - 3
    China - 167
    Colombia - 1
    Croatia - 9
    Cyprus - 1
    Czech Republic - 114
    Denmark - 3
    Ecuador - 2
    Estonia - 26
    Finland - 98
    France - 97
    Georgia - 7
    Germany - 181
    Great Britain - 62
    Greece - 5
    Haiti - 1
    Hong Kong - 3
    Hungary - 13
    Iceland - 5
    Iran - 4
    Ireland - 4
    Israel - 4
    Italy - 129
    Jamaica - 1
    Japan - 134
    Kazakhstan - 31
    Kenya - 1
    Kosovo - 1
    Kyrgyzstan - 1
    Latvia - 61
    Lebanon - 3
    Liechtenstein - 6
    Lithuania - 12
    Luxembourg
    Madagascar - 1
    Malaysia - 2
    Malta - 1
    Mexico - 2
    Moldova - 5
    Monaco - 6
    Mongolia - 2
    Montenegro - 3
    Morocco - 1
    Netherlands - 42
    New Zealand - 16
    Nigeria - 2
    North Korea - 2
    North Macedonia - 3
    Norway - 115
    Pakistan - 2
    Peru - 2
    Philippines - 1
    Poland - 51
    Portugal - 2
    Puerto Rico - 1
    Romania - 21
    Russia - 209
    San Marino - 1
    Serbia - 5
    Slovakia - 48
    Slovenia - 45
    South Africa - 1
    South Korea - 69
    Spain - 13
    Sweden - 117
    Switzerland - 178
    Chinese Taipei - 3
    Thailand - 4
    Timor-Leste - 1
    Trinidad and Tobago - 1
    Turkey - 6
    Ukraine - 41
    United States - 219
    Uzbekistan - 1
    Virgin Islands - 1
  19. Like
    JoshMartini007 got a reaction from rafalgorka in Winter Olympic Games 2022 Early Qualification Predictions   
    I mostly looked at recent results and compared it to the sport's qualification system. I didn't keep tabs on specific people since for some sports it's done through nation rankings (and the project was ambitious enough already). I also assumed every nation will accept all their quotas (which likely won't happen).
     
    For Poland the sport breakdown is...
     
    Alpine Skiing - 3
    Biathlon - 8
    Cross-country Skiing - 7
    Figure Skating - 2
    Luge - 4
    Nordic Combined - 4
    Short Track Speed Skating - 4
    Ski Jumping - 7
    Snowboarding - 3
    Speed Skating - 9
  20. Like
    JoshMartini007 got a reaction from mrv86 in Winter Olympic Games 2022 Early Qualification Predictions   
    Here's my simulation of the number of athletes for each country. Note I did not take into account injuries (or people missing out due to COVID) and potential athletes that will reactivate themselves during the 2021-2022 season (since I have no information on them). In total 91 nations will participate. Let's see how far off I am in 2022.
     
    Albania - 1
    American Samoa - 1
    Andorra - 5
    Argentina - 9
    Armenia - 4
    Australia - 34
    Austria - 110
    Azerbaijan - 3
    Belarus - 38
    Belgium - 18
    Bolivia - 2
    Bosnia and Herzegovina - 5
    Brazil - 8
    Bulgaria - 15
    Canada - 206
    Cayman Islands - 1
    Chile - 3
    China - 167
    Colombia - 1
    Croatia - 9
    Cyprus - 1
    Czech Republic - 114
    Denmark - 3
    Ecuador - 2
    Estonia - 26
    Finland - 98
    France - 97
    Georgia - 7
    Germany - 181
    Great Britain - 62
    Greece - 5
    Haiti - 1
    Hong Kong - 3
    Hungary - 13
    Iceland - 5
    Iran - 4
    Ireland - 4
    Israel - 4
    Italy - 129
    Jamaica - 1
    Japan - 134
    Kazakhstan - 31
    Kenya - 1
    Kosovo - 1
    Kyrgyzstan - 1
    Latvia - 61
    Lebanon - 3
    Liechtenstein - 6
    Lithuania - 12
    Luxembourg
    Madagascar - 1
    Malaysia - 2
    Malta - 1
    Mexico - 2
    Moldova - 5
    Monaco - 6
    Mongolia - 2
    Montenegro - 3
    Morocco - 1
    Netherlands - 42
    New Zealand - 16
    Nigeria - 2
    North Korea - 2
    North Macedonia - 3
    Norway - 115
    Pakistan - 2
    Peru - 2
    Philippines - 1
    Poland - 51
    Portugal - 2
    Puerto Rico - 1
    Romania - 21
    Russia - 209
    San Marino - 1
    Serbia - 5
    Slovakia - 48
    Slovenia - 45
    South Africa - 1
    South Korea - 69
    Spain - 13
    Sweden - 117
    Switzerland - 178
    Chinese Taipei - 3
    Thailand - 4
    Timor-Leste - 1
    Trinidad and Tobago - 1
    Turkey - 6
    Ukraine - 41
    United States - 219
    Uzbekistan - 1
    Virgin Islands - 1
  21. Love
    JoshMartini007 got a reaction from rafalgorka in Winter Olympic Games 2022 Early Qualification Predictions   
    Here's my simulation of the number of athletes for each country. Note I did not take into account injuries (or people missing out due to COVID) and potential athletes that will reactivate themselves during the 2021-2022 season (since I have no information on them). In total 91 nations will participate. Let's see how far off I am in 2022.
     
    Albania - 1
    American Samoa - 1
    Andorra - 5
    Argentina - 9
    Armenia - 4
    Australia - 34
    Austria - 110
    Azerbaijan - 3
    Belarus - 38
    Belgium - 18
    Bolivia - 2
    Bosnia and Herzegovina - 5
    Brazil - 8
    Bulgaria - 15
    Canada - 206
    Cayman Islands - 1
    Chile - 3
    China - 167
    Colombia - 1
    Croatia - 9
    Cyprus - 1
    Czech Republic - 114
    Denmark - 3
    Ecuador - 2
    Estonia - 26
    Finland - 98
    France - 97
    Georgia - 7
    Germany - 181
    Great Britain - 62
    Greece - 5
    Haiti - 1
    Hong Kong - 3
    Hungary - 13
    Iceland - 5
    Iran - 4
    Ireland - 4
    Israel - 4
    Italy - 129
    Jamaica - 1
    Japan - 134
    Kazakhstan - 31
    Kenya - 1
    Kosovo - 1
    Kyrgyzstan - 1
    Latvia - 61
    Lebanon - 3
    Liechtenstein - 6
    Lithuania - 12
    Luxembourg
    Madagascar - 1
    Malaysia - 2
    Malta - 1
    Mexico - 2
    Moldova - 5
    Monaco - 6
    Mongolia - 2
    Montenegro - 3
    Morocco - 1
    Netherlands - 42
    New Zealand - 16
    Nigeria - 2
    North Korea - 2
    North Macedonia - 3
    Norway - 115
    Pakistan - 2
    Peru - 2
    Philippines - 1
    Poland - 51
    Portugal - 2
    Puerto Rico - 1
    Romania - 21
    Russia - 209
    San Marino - 1
    Serbia - 5
    Slovakia - 48
    Slovenia - 45
    South Africa - 1
    South Korea - 69
    Spain - 13
    Sweden - 117
    Switzerland - 178
    Chinese Taipei - 3
    Thailand - 4
    Timor-Leste - 1
    Trinidad and Tobago - 1
    Turkey - 6
    Ukraine - 41
    United States - 219
    Uzbekistan - 1
    Virgin Islands - 1
  22. Like
    JoshMartini007 got a reaction from hckošice in Winter Olympic Games 2022 Early Qualification Predictions   
    Here's my simulation of the number of athletes for each country. Note I did not take into account injuries (or people missing out due to COVID) and potential athletes that will reactivate themselves during the 2021-2022 season (since I have no information on them). In total 91 nations will participate. Let's see how far off I am in 2022.
     
    Albania - 1
    American Samoa - 1
    Andorra - 5
    Argentina - 9
    Armenia - 4
    Australia - 34
    Austria - 110
    Azerbaijan - 3
    Belarus - 38
    Belgium - 18
    Bolivia - 2
    Bosnia and Herzegovina - 5
    Brazil - 8
    Bulgaria - 15
    Canada - 206
    Cayman Islands - 1
    Chile - 3
    China - 167
    Colombia - 1
    Croatia - 9
    Cyprus - 1
    Czech Republic - 114
    Denmark - 3
    Ecuador - 2
    Estonia - 26
    Finland - 98
    France - 97
    Georgia - 7
    Germany - 181
    Great Britain - 62
    Greece - 5
    Haiti - 1
    Hong Kong - 3
    Hungary - 13
    Iceland - 5
    Iran - 4
    Ireland - 4
    Israel - 4
    Italy - 129
    Jamaica - 1
    Japan - 134
    Kazakhstan - 31
    Kenya - 1
    Kosovo - 1
    Kyrgyzstan - 1
    Latvia - 61
    Lebanon - 3
    Liechtenstein - 6
    Lithuania - 12
    Luxembourg
    Madagascar - 1
    Malaysia - 2
    Malta - 1
    Mexico - 2
    Moldova - 5
    Monaco - 6
    Mongolia - 2
    Montenegro - 3
    Morocco - 1
    Netherlands - 42
    New Zealand - 16
    Nigeria - 2
    North Korea - 2
    North Macedonia - 3
    Norway - 115
    Pakistan - 2
    Peru - 2
    Philippines - 1
    Poland - 51
    Portugal - 2
    Puerto Rico - 1
    Romania - 21
    Russia - 209
    San Marino - 1
    Serbia - 5
    Slovakia - 48
    Slovenia - 45
    South Africa - 1
    South Korea - 69
    Spain - 13
    Sweden - 117
    Switzerland - 178
    Chinese Taipei - 3
    Thailand - 4
    Timor-Leste - 1
    Trinidad and Tobago - 1
    Turkey - 6
    Ukraine - 41
    United States - 219
    Uzbekistan - 1
    Virgin Islands - 1
  23. Like
    JoshMartini007 got a reaction from Olympian1010 in Summer Olympic Games 2020 News   
    The stadium capacities are another big issue. If the IOC was willing to halve the stadium size my metro area would be able to host the Olympics with only needing to build sport specific stadiums. If they want more ticket sales they could always install viewing areas or even theaters.
  24. Sad
    JoshMartini007 got a reaction from Benolympique in Women's Water Polo FINA Olympic Games Qualification Tournament 2021   
    With South Africa deciding to take the African quota for the first time ever the final qualification tournament has become as tough as ever for the European nations despite there being two extra teams at the Olympics this year. I guess it's slightly easier with no Canada, but still two good teams will miss out.
  25. Like
    JoshMartini007 got a reaction from dcro in [OFF TOPIC] General Chat   
    Hey, how is everyone doing. It's been a while and it seems a lot has changed since I've last been here.
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