JoshMartini007

So close against the UAE

2028 Team Size Projection – Jan 2026 Update
 
Here’s an update to my 2028 Team Size Projection. While I touch upon major events changes may occur due to results in smaller events. Additionally, several sports released their qualification document so there may be cases where I have to update the projection. I will only include sports where there is an update.
 
Here is the link to the updated sheet.
 
 
Aquatics (Water Polo)
The Men’s European Championships saw take gold. The victory moved Serbia up a few places between European nations. With that said, no one fell out of Olympic qualification with the likes of France and Romania still on the outside looking in. remains on the edge.
 
Athletics (Marathon)
Both the Xiamen and Osaka marathons were held this month along with a few other smaller events. While there were a few changes in the rankings, in terms of Olympic projections gains an athlete in the men’s marathon at the expense of
 
Badminton
Major tournaments include the Malaysia Open and India Open. New updates which affected projections include the women’s doubles where overtook . As Polina Buhrova is also scheduled to compete in the singles event, an additional spot has been open. Other changes in the women’s singles was loses one of their quotas. and benefit from those losses.
 
Indonesia’s loss on the women’s side is offset by gaining a second player in the men’s singles. This puts   on the outside.
 
Canoeing
The qualification document for both Slalom and Sprint were released/updated. No significant changes were found in the Sprint update. Slalom had significant changes relative to 2024 where the initial quotas will be decided by rankings and kayak cross will now have significant quotas being allocated. After adjustment, the following nations lost a quota; Andorra, Chinese Taipei, Ireland, New Zealand, North Macedonia, Slovakia, and Sweden. The following nations gained a quota; Canada, China, France, Italy, South Africa, Spain, and Tunisia.
 
Cricket
The Women’s T20 World Cup Qualifier was held. No changes to the projection.
 
Equestrian (Dressage & Jumping)
Various World Cup events were held. No changes to the projections were made.
 
Fencing
We had two Grand Prix this month, one for epee and the other for sabre. In men’s epee, overtakes . On the women’s side, the United States moved into the top 4 in the team ranking, pushing Estonia down to fifth. This pushed out of Olympic qualification while takes the Americas quota. This caused a downstream effect on the individual side as Ukraine takes an individual quota and Canada relinquishes their quota, additionally, gained a quota while lost one.
 
In men’s sabre, now takes the Asian team quota pushing down to just an individual quota. No changes were found in women’s sabre.
 
Handball
Four men’s continental championships were held this month. finished top in Africa while a couple of upsets were saw in South America and Asia where and won over and respectively. Despite their wins, they currently haven’t leapfrogged into being projected to qualify. We’ll see how they perform at the World Championships.
 
Europe saw finish fourth. This was enough to push it into Olympic qualification projection. They pushed out.
 
Rowing
The qualification document was released. There was a change in boat allocation relative to 2024 and the continental qualifier was slightly different than what I projected. Additionally, I assumed coastal rowing would allow 2 men and 2 women to compete in its three events, but the max is 1 man and 1 woman. This has caused significant changes to the projections.
 
Overall, the United States lost four quotas. Canada, France, Germany, Ireland, Lithuania, New Zealand, Norway, and Spain lost two quotas and Algeria, Argentina, Croatia, Cuba, Egypt, Kazakhstan, Netherlands, Portugal, Tunisia lost one quota.
 
The following nations have gained two athletes; Japan, Morocco while the following nations gained one athlete; Angola, Austria, Belgium, Chile, Chinese Taipei, Cote d’Ivoire, Denmark, Estonia, Kuwait, Latvia, Mexico, Romania, Philippines, Paraguay, Puerto Rico, South Africa, South Korea, Switzerland, Togo, Uzbekistan, Vanuatu
 
Rugby Sevens
Fixing a couple of mistakes. First on the men, actually has the Asian quota over and in the women as is essentially shutting down the program, I think it is only right to remove them until they decide to compete again. This means is also projected to qualify.
 
As for new updates, we saw the third tier SVNS compete, which brought no new updates and the Singapore SVNS. I also didn’t add the Dubai or Cape Town SVNS in my calculations. For both, while there was some shuffling no one ultimately fell out.
 
Shooting
The Asian Shotgun Championships were held this month. A few top shooters were missing. The only change to the projection is is set to qualify in women’s trap, pushing out
 
Squash
The Tournament of Champions was held this month. Additionally, the qualification document was released. There was some restriction as to how many nations can send two players and this sport will offer universality quotas.
 
The following nations lost an athlete quota; Colombia, France, Great Britain, Hong Kong, Malaysia, and New Zealand. The following nations gained an athlete quota; Canada, Pakistan, Spain (x2), Switzerland, Ukraine
 
Triathlon
The qualification document was released. There are a few changes relative to 2024. Projection changes include: Losses to Hong Kong and Slovenia and gains for Austria and China.
 
Weightlifting
The qualification document was released. One change to be made was the reallocation process for host nation quotas. Due to this, El Salvador Iraq, Palau, Sri Lanka, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu lost quotas while Australia, China, Dominican Republic, Iran, and Samoa (x2) gained quotas.
 
Wrestling
The qualification document was released. There were some significant changes to the qualification process including using the world rankings and the final qualifier only consisting of non-qualified nations. The projection changes are as follows; losses to Belarus, Bulgaria, China, Georgia, Germany, Hungary, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Russia, South Korea, Sweden, and Turkey.
 
Belgium and Lithuania gained 2 quotas while American Samoa, Austria, Estonia, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Latvia, Madagascar, Spain, and Turkmenistan gained 1 quota.

2028 Team Size Projection – Jan 2026 Update
 
Here’s an update to my 2028 Team Size Projection. While I touch upon major events changes may occur due to results in smaller events. Additionally, several sports released their qualification document so there may be cases where I have to update the projection. I will only include sports where there is an update.
 
Here is the link to the updated sheet.
 
 
Aquatics (Water Polo)
The Men’s European Championships saw take gold. The victory moved Serbia up a few places between European nations. With that said, no one fell out of Olympic qualification with the likes of France and Romania still on the outside looking in. remains on the edge.
 
Athletics (Marathon)
Both the Xiamen and Osaka marathons were held this month along with a few other smaller events. While there were a few changes in the rankings, in terms of Olympic projections gains an athlete in the men’s marathon at the expense of
 
Badminton
Major tournaments include the Malaysia Open and India Open. New updates which affected projections include the women’s doubles where overtook . As Polina Buhrova is also scheduled to compete in the singles event, an additional spot has been open. Other changes in the women’s singles was loses one of their quotas. and benefit from those losses.
 
Indonesia’s loss on the women’s side is offset by gaining a second player in the men’s singles. This puts   on the outside.
 
Canoeing
The qualification document for both Slalom and Sprint were released/updated. No significant changes were found in the Sprint update. Slalom had significant changes relative to 2024 where the initial quotas will be decided by rankings and kayak cross will now have significant quotas being allocated. After adjustment, the following nations lost a quota; Andorra, Chinese Taipei, Ireland, New Zealand, North Macedonia, Slovakia, and Sweden. The following nations gained a quota; Canada, China, France, Italy, South Africa, Spain, and Tunisia.
 
Cricket
The Women’s T20 World Cup Qualifier was held. No changes to the projection.
 
Equestrian (Dressage & Jumping)
Various World Cup events were held. No changes to the projections were made.
 
Fencing
We had two Grand Prix this month, one for epee and the other for sabre. In men’s epee, overtakes . On the women’s side, the United States moved into the top 4 in the team ranking, pushing Estonia down to fifth. This pushed out of Olympic qualification while takes the Americas quota. This caused a downstream effect on the individual side as Ukraine takes an individual quota and Canada relinquishes their quota, additionally, gained a quota while lost one.
 
In men’s sabre, now takes the Asian team quota pushing down to just an individual quota. No changes were found in women’s sabre.
 
Handball
Four men’s continental championships were held this month. finished top in Africa while a couple of upsets were saw in South America and Asia where and won over and respectively. Despite their wins, they currently haven’t leapfrogged into being projected to qualify. We’ll see how they perform at the World Championships.
 
Europe saw finish fourth. This was enough to push it into Olympic qualification projection. They pushed out.
 
Rowing
The qualification document was released. There was a change in boat allocation relative to 2024 and the continental qualifier was slightly different than what I projected. Additionally, I assumed coastal rowing would allow 2 men and 2 women to compete in its three events, but the max is 1 man and 1 woman. This has caused significant changes to the projections.
 
Overall, the United States lost four quotas. Canada, France, Germany, Ireland, Lithuania, New Zealand, Norway, and Spain lost two quotas and Algeria, Argentina, Croatia, Cuba, Egypt, Kazakhstan, Netherlands, Portugal, Tunisia lost one quota.
 
The following nations have gained two athletes; Japan, Morocco while the following nations gained one athlete; Angola, Austria, Belgium, Chile, Chinese Taipei, Cote d’Ivoire, Denmark, Estonia, Kuwait, Latvia, Mexico, Romania, Philippines, Paraguay, Puerto Rico, South Africa, South Korea, Switzerland, Togo, Uzbekistan, Vanuatu
 
Rugby Sevens
Fixing a couple of mistakes. First on the men, actually has the Asian quota over and in the women as is essentially shutting down the program, I think it is only right to remove them until they decide to compete again. This means is also projected to qualify.
 
As for new updates, we saw the third tier SVNS compete, which brought no new updates and the Singapore SVNS. I also didn’t add the Dubai or Cape Town SVNS in my calculations. For both, while there was some shuffling no one ultimately fell out.
 
Shooting
The Asian Shotgun Championships were held this month. A few top shooters were missing. The only change to the projection is is set to qualify in women’s trap, pushing out
 
Squash
The Tournament of Champions was held this month. Additionally, the qualification document was released. There was some restriction as to how many nations can send two players and this sport will offer universality quotas.
 
The following nations lost an athlete quota; Colombia, France, Great Britain, Hong Kong, Malaysia, and New Zealand. The following nations gained an athlete quota; Canada, Pakistan, Spain (x2), Switzerland, Ukraine
 
Triathlon
The qualification document was released. There are a few changes relative to 2024. Projection changes include: Losses to Hong Kong and Slovenia and gains for Austria and China.
 
Weightlifting
The qualification document was released. One change to be made was the reallocation process for host nation quotas. Due to this, El Salvador Iraq, Palau, Sri Lanka, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu lost quotas while Australia, China, Dominican Republic, Iran, and Samoa (x2) gained quotas.
 
Wrestling
The qualification document was released. There were some significant changes to the qualification process including using the world rankings and the final qualifier only consisting of non-qualified nations. The projection changes are as follows; losses to Belarus, Bulgaria, China, Georgia, Germany, Hungary, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Russia, South Korea, Sweden, and Turkey.
 
Belgium and Lithuania gained 2 quotas while American Samoa, Austria, Estonia, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Latvia, Madagascar, Spain, and Turkmenistan gained 1 quota.

2028 Team Size Projection – Jan 2026 Update
 
Here’s an update to my 2028 Team Size Projection. While I touch upon major events changes may occur due to results in smaller events. Additionally, several sports released their qualification document so there may be cases where I have to update the projection. I will only include sports where there is an update.
 
Here is the link to the updated sheet.
 
 
Aquatics (Water Polo)
The Men’s European Championships saw take gold. The victory moved Serbia up a few places between European nations. With that said, no one fell out of Olympic qualification with the likes of France and Romania still on the outside looking in. remains on the edge.
 
Athletics (Marathon)
Both the Xiamen and Osaka marathons were held this month along with a few other smaller events. While there were a few changes in the rankings, in terms of Olympic projections gains an athlete in the men’s marathon at the expense of
 
Badminton
Major tournaments include the Malaysia Open and India Open. New updates which affected projections include the women’s doubles where overtook . As Polina Buhrova is also scheduled to compete in the singles event, an additional spot has been open. Other changes in the women’s singles was loses one of their quotas. and benefit from those losses.
 
Indonesia’s loss on the women’s side is offset by gaining a second player in the men’s singles. This puts   on the outside.
 
Canoeing
The qualification document for both Slalom and Sprint were released/updated. No significant changes were found in the Sprint update. Slalom had significant changes relative to 2024 where the initial quotas will be decided by rankings and kayak cross will now have significant quotas being allocated. After adjustment, the following nations lost a quota; Andorra, Chinese Taipei, Ireland, New Zealand, North Macedonia, Slovakia, and Sweden. The following nations gained a quota; Canada, China, France, Italy, South Africa, Spain, and Tunisia.
 
Cricket
The Women’s T20 World Cup Qualifier was held. No changes to the projection.
 
Equestrian (Dressage & Jumping)
Various World Cup events were held. No changes to the projections were made.
 
Fencing
We had two Grand Prix this month, one for epee and the other for sabre. In men’s epee, overtakes . On the women’s side, the United States moved into the top 4 in the team ranking, pushing Estonia down to fifth. This pushed out of Olympic qualification while takes the Americas quota. This caused a downstream effect on the individual side as Ukraine takes an individual quota and Canada relinquishes their quota, additionally, gained a quota while lost one.
 
In men’s sabre, now takes the Asian team quota pushing down to just an individual quota. No changes were found in women’s sabre.
 
Handball
Four men’s continental championships were held this month. finished top in Africa while a couple of upsets were saw in South America and Asia where and won over and respectively. Despite their wins, they currently haven’t leapfrogged into being projected to qualify. We’ll see how they perform at the World Championships.
 
Europe saw finish fourth. This was enough to push it into Olympic qualification projection. They pushed out.
 
Rowing
The qualification document was released. There was a change in boat allocation relative to 2024 and the continental qualifier was slightly different than what I projected. Additionally, I assumed coastal rowing would allow 2 men and 2 women to compete in its three events, but the max is 1 man and 1 woman. This has caused significant changes to the projections.
 
Overall, the United States lost four quotas. Canada, France, Germany, Ireland, Lithuania, New Zealand, Norway, and Spain lost two quotas and Algeria, Argentina, Croatia, Cuba, Egypt, Kazakhstan, Netherlands, Portugal, Tunisia lost one quota.
 
The following nations have gained two athletes; Japan, Morocco while the following nations gained one athlete; Angola, Austria, Belgium, Chile, Chinese Taipei, Cote d’Ivoire, Denmark, Estonia, Kuwait, Latvia, Mexico, Romania, Philippines, Paraguay, Puerto Rico, South Africa, South Korea, Switzerland, Togo, Uzbekistan, Vanuatu
 
Rugby Sevens
Fixing a couple of mistakes. First on the men, actually has the Asian quota over and in the women as is essentially shutting down the program, I think it is only right to remove them until they decide to compete again. This means is also projected to qualify.
 
As for new updates, we saw the third tier SVNS compete, which brought no new updates and the Singapore SVNS. I also didn’t add the Dubai or Cape Town SVNS in my calculations. For both, while there was some shuffling no one ultimately fell out.
 
Shooting
The Asian Shotgun Championships were held this month. A few top shooters were missing. The only change to the projection is is set to qualify in women’s trap, pushing out
 
Squash
The Tournament of Champions was held this month. Additionally, the qualification document was released. There was some restriction as to how many nations can send two players and this sport will offer universality quotas.
 
The following nations lost an athlete quota; Colombia, France, Great Britain, Hong Kong, Malaysia, and New Zealand. The following nations gained an athlete quota; Canada, Pakistan, Spain (x2), Switzerland, Ukraine
 
Triathlon
The qualification document was released. There are a few changes relative to 2024. Projection changes include: Losses to Hong Kong and Slovenia and gains for Austria and China.
 
Weightlifting
The qualification document was released. One change to be made was the reallocation process for host nation quotas. Due to this, El Salvador Iraq, Palau, Sri Lanka, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu lost quotas while Australia, China, Dominican Republic, Iran, and Samoa (x2) gained quotas.
 
Wrestling
The qualification document was released. There were some significant changes to the qualification process including using the world rankings and the final qualifier only consisting of non-qualified nations. The projection changes are as follows; losses to Belarus, Bulgaria, China, Georgia, Germany, Hungary, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Russia, South Korea, Sweden, and Turkey.
 
Belgium and Lithuania gained 2 quotas while American Samoa, Austria, Estonia, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Latvia, Madagascar, Spain, and Turkmenistan gained 1 quota.

2028 Team Size Projection – Jan 2026 Update
 
Here’s an update to my 2028 Team Size Projection. While I touch upon major events changes may occur due to results in smaller events. Additionally, several sports released their qualification document so there may be cases where I have to update the projection. I will only include sports where there is an update.
 
Here is the link to the updated sheet.
 
 
Aquatics (Water Polo)
The Men’s European Championships saw take gold. The victory moved Serbia up a few places between European nations. With that said, no one fell out of Olympic qualification with the likes of France and Romania still on the outside looking in. remains on the edge.
 
Athletics (Marathon)
Both the Xiamen and Osaka marathons were held this month along with a few other smaller events. While there were a few changes in the rankings, in terms of Olympic projections gains an athlete in the men’s marathon at the expense of
 
Badminton
Major tournaments include the Malaysia Open and India Open. New updates which affected projections include the women’s doubles where overtook . As Polina Buhrova is also scheduled to compete in the singles event, an additional spot has been open. Other changes in the women’s singles was loses one of their quotas. and benefit from those losses.
 
Indonesia’s loss on the women’s side is offset by gaining a second player in the men’s singles. This puts   on the outside.
 
Canoeing
The qualification document for both Slalom and Sprint were released/updated. No significant changes were found in the Sprint update. Slalom had significant changes relative to 2024 where the initial quotas will be decided by rankings and kayak cross will now have significant quotas being allocated. After adjustment, the following nations lost a quota; Andorra, Chinese Taipei, Ireland, New Zealand, North Macedonia, Slovakia, and Sweden. The following nations gained a quota; Canada, China, France, Italy, South Africa, Spain, and Tunisia.
 
Cricket
The Women’s T20 World Cup Qualifier was held. No changes to the projection.
 
Equestrian (Dressage & Jumping)
Various World Cup events were held. No changes to the projections were made.
 
Fencing
We had two Grand Prix this month, one for epee and the other for sabre. In men’s epee, overtakes . On the women’s side, the United States moved into the top 4 in the team ranking, pushing Estonia down to fifth. This pushed out of Olympic qualification while takes the Americas quota. This caused a downstream effect on the individual side as Ukraine takes an individual quota and Canada relinquishes their quota, additionally, gained a quota while lost one.
 
In men’s sabre, now takes the Asian team quota pushing down to just an individual quota. No changes were found in women’s sabre.
 
Handball
Four men’s continental championships were held this month. finished top in Africa while a couple of upsets were saw in South America and Asia where and won over and respectively. Despite their wins, they currently haven’t leapfrogged into being projected to qualify. We’ll see how they perform at the World Championships.
 
Europe saw finish fourth. This was enough to push it into Olympic qualification projection. They pushed out.
 
Rowing
The qualification document was released. There was a change in boat allocation relative to 2024 and the continental qualifier was slightly different than what I projected. Additionally, I assumed coastal rowing would allow 2 men and 2 women to compete in its three events, but the max is 1 man and 1 woman. This has caused significant changes to the projections.
 
Overall, the United States lost four quotas. Canada, France, Germany, Ireland, Lithuania, New Zealand, Norway, and Spain lost two quotas and Algeria, Argentina, Croatia, Cuba, Egypt, Kazakhstan, Netherlands, Portugal, Tunisia lost one quota.
 
The following nations have gained two athletes; Japan, Morocco while the following nations gained one athlete; Angola, Austria, Belgium, Chile, Chinese Taipei, Cote d’Ivoire, Denmark, Estonia, Kuwait, Latvia, Mexico, Romania, Philippines, Paraguay, Puerto Rico, South Africa, South Korea, Switzerland, Togo, Uzbekistan, Vanuatu
 
Rugby Sevens
Fixing a couple of mistakes. First on the men, actually has the Asian quota over and in the women as is essentially shutting down the program, I think it is only right to remove them until they decide to compete again. This means is also projected to qualify.
 
As for new updates, we saw the third tier SVNS compete, which brought no new updates and the Singapore SVNS. I also didn’t add the Dubai or Cape Town SVNS in my calculations. For both, while there was some shuffling no one ultimately fell out.
 
Shooting
The Asian Shotgun Championships were held this month. A few top shooters were missing. The only change to the projection is is set to qualify in women’s trap, pushing out
 
Squash
The Tournament of Champions was held this month. Additionally, the qualification document was released. There was some restriction as to how many nations can send two players and this sport will offer universality quotas.
 
The following nations lost an athlete quota; Colombia, France, Great Britain, Hong Kong, Malaysia, and New Zealand. The following nations gained an athlete quota; Canada, Pakistan, Spain (x2), Switzerland, Ukraine
 
Triathlon
The qualification document was released. There are a few changes relative to 2024. Projection changes include: Losses to Hong Kong and Slovenia and gains for Austria and China.
 
Weightlifting
The qualification document was released. One change to be made was the reallocation process for host nation quotas. Due to this, El Salvador Iraq, Palau, Sri Lanka, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu lost quotas while Australia, China, Dominican Republic, Iran, and Samoa (x2) gained quotas.
 
Wrestling
The qualification document was released. There were some significant changes to the qualification process including using the world rankings and the final qualifier only consisting of non-qualified nations. The projection changes are as follows; losses to Belarus, Bulgaria, China, Georgia, Germany, Hungary, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Russia, South Korea, Sweden, and Turkey.
 
Belgium and Lithuania gained 2 quotas while American Samoa, Austria, Estonia, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Latvia, Madagascar, Spain, and Turkmenistan gained 1 quota.

2028 Team Size Projection – Jan 2026 Update
 
Here’s an update to my 2028 Team Size Projection. While I touch upon major events changes may occur due to results in smaller events. Additionally, several sports released their qualification document so there may be cases where I have to update the projection. I will only include sports where there is an update.
 
Here is the link to the updated sheet.
 
 
Aquatics (Water Polo)
The Men’s European Championships saw take gold. The victory moved Serbia up a few places between European nations. With that said, no one fell out of Olympic qualification with the likes of France and Romania still on the outside looking in. remains on the edge.
 
Athletics (Marathon)
Both the Xiamen and Osaka marathons were held this month along with a few other smaller events. While there were a few changes in the rankings, in terms of Olympic projections gains an athlete in the men’s marathon at the expense of
 
Badminton
Major tournaments include the Malaysia Open and India Open. New updates which affected projections include the women’s doubles where overtook . As Polina Buhrova is also scheduled to compete in the singles event, an additional spot has been open. Other changes in the women’s singles was loses one of their quotas. and benefit from those losses.
 
Indonesia’s loss on the women’s side is offset by gaining a second player in the men’s singles. This puts   on the outside.
 
Canoeing
The qualification document for both Slalom and Sprint were released/updated. No significant changes were found in the Sprint update. Slalom had significant changes relative to 2024 where the initial quotas will be decided by rankings and kayak cross will now have significant quotas being allocated. After adjustment, the following nations lost a quota; Andorra, Chinese Taipei, Ireland, New Zealand, North Macedonia, Slovakia, and Sweden. The following nations gained a quota; Canada, China, France, Italy, South Africa, Spain, and Tunisia.
 
Cricket
The Women’s T20 World Cup Qualifier was held. No changes to the projection.
 
Equestrian (Dressage & Jumping)
Various World Cup events were held. No changes to the projections were made.
 
Fencing
We had two Grand Prix this month, one for epee and the other for sabre. In men’s epee, overtakes . On the women’s side, the United States moved into the top 4 in the team ranking, pushing Estonia down to fifth. This pushed out of Olympic qualification while takes the Americas quota. This caused a downstream effect on the individual side as Ukraine takes an individual quota and Canada relinquishes their quota, additionally, gained a quota while lost one.
 
In men’s sabre, now takes the Asian team quota pushing down to just an individual quota. No changes were found in women’s sabre.
 
Handball
Four men’s continental championships were held this month. finished top in Africa while a couple of upsets were saw in South America and Asia where and won over and respectively. Despite their wins, they currently haven’t leapfrogged into being projected to qualify. We’ll see how they perform at the World Championships.
 
Europe saw finish fourth. This was enough to push it into Olympic qualification projection. They pushed out.
 
Rowing
The qualification document was released. There was a change in boat allocation relative to 2024 and the continental qualifier was slightly different than what I projected. Additionally, I assumed coastal rowing would allow 2 men and 2 women to compete in its three events, but the max is 1 man and 1 woman. This has caused significant changes to the projections.
 
Overall, the United States lost four quotas. Canada, France, Germany, Ireland, Lithuania, New Zealand, Norway, and Spain lost two quotas and Algeria, Argentina, Croatia, Cuba, Egypt, Kazakhstan, Netherlands, Portugal, Tunisia lost one quota.
 
The following nations have gained two athletes; Japan, Morocco while the following nations gained one athlete; Angola, Austria, Belgium, Chile, Chinese Taipei, Cote d’Ivoire, Denmark, Estonia, Kuwait, Latvia, Mexico, Romania, Philippines, Paraguay, Puerto Rico, South Africa, South Korea, Switzerland, Togo, Uzbekistan, Vanuatu
 
Rugby Sevens
Fixing a couple of mistakes. First on the men, actually has the Asian quota over and in the women as is essentially shutting down the program, I think it is only right to remove them until they decide to compete again. This means is also projected to qualify.
 
As for new updates, we saw the third tier SVNS compete, which brought no new updates and the Singapore SVNS. I also didn’t add the Dubai or Cape Town SVNS in my calculations. For both, while there was some shuffling no one ultimately fell out.
 
Shooting
The Asian Shotgun Championships were held this month. A few top shooters were missing. The only change to the projection is is set to qualify in women’s trap, pushing out
 
Squash
The Tournament of Champions was held this month. Additionally, the qualification document was released. There was some restriction as to how many nations can send two players and this sport will offer universality quotas.
 
The following nations lost an athlete quota; Colombia, France, Great Britain, Hong Kong, Malaysia, and New Zealand. The following nations gained an athlete quota; Canada, Pakistan, Spain (x2), Switzerland, Ukraine
 
Triathlon
The qualification document was released. There are a few changes relative to 2024. Projection changes include: Losses to Hong Kong and Slovenia and gains for Austria and China.
 
Weightlifting
The qualification document was released. One change to be made was the reallocation process for host nation quotas. Due to this, El Salvador Iraq, Palau, Sri Lanka, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu lost quotas while Australia, China, Dominican Republic, Iran, and Samoa (x2) gained quotas.
 
Wrestling
The qualification document was released. There were some significant changes to the qualification process including using the world rankings and the final qualifier only consisting of non-qualified nations. The projection changes are as follows; losses to Belarus, Bulgaria, China, Georgia, Germany, Hungary, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Russia, South Korea, Sweden, and Turkey.
 
Belgium and Lithuania gained 2 quotas while American Samoa, Austria, Estonia, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Latvia, Madagascar, Spain, and Turkmenistan gained 1 quota.

2028 Team Size Projection – Jan 2026 Update
 
Here’s an update to my 2028 Team Size Projection. While I touch upon major events changes may occur due to results in smaller events. Additionally, several sports released their qualification document so there may be cases where I have to update the projection. I will only include sports where there is an update.
 
Here is the link to the updated sheet.
 
 
Aquatics (Water Polo)
The Men’s European Championships saw take gold. The victory moved Serbia up a few places between European nations. With that said, no one fell out of Olympic qualification with the likes of France and Romania still on the outside looking in. remains on the edge.
 
Athletics (Marathon)
Both the Xiamen and Osaka marathons were held this month along with a few other smaller events. While there were a few changes in the rankings, in terms of Olympic projections gains an athlete in the men’s marathon at the expense of
 
Badminton
Major tournaments include the Malaysia Open and India Open. New updates which affected projections include the women’s doubles where overtook . As Polina Buhrova is also scheduled to compete in the singles event, an additional spot has been open. Other changes in the women’s singles was loses one of their quotas. and benefit from those losses.
 
Indonesia’s loss on the women’s side is offset by gaining a second player in the men’s singles. This puts   on the outside.
 
Canoeing
The qualification document for both Slalom and Sprint were released/updated. No significant changes were found in the Sprint update. Slalom had significant changes relative to 2024 where the initial quotas will be decided by rankings and kayak cross will now have significant quotas being allocated. After adjustment, the following nations lost a quota; Andorra, Chinese Taipei, Ireland, New Zealand, North Macedonia, Slovakia, and Sweden. The following nations gained a quota; Canada, China, France, Italy, South Africa, Spain, and Tunisia.
 
Cricket
The Women’s T20 World Cup Qualifier was held. No changes to the projection.
 
Equestrian (Dressage & Jumping)
Various World Cup events were held. No changes to the projections were made.
 
Fencing
We had two Grand Prix this month, one for epee and the other for sabre. In men’s epee, overtakes . On the women’s side, the United States moved into the top 4 in the team ranking, pushing Estonia down to fifth. This pushed out of Olympic qualification while takes the Americas quota. This caused a downstream effect on the individual side as Ukraine takes an individual quota and Canada relinquishes their quota, additionally, gained a quota while lost one.
 
In men’s sabre, now takes the Asian team quota pushing down to just an individual quota. No changes were found in women’s sabre.
 
Handball
Four men’s continental championships were held this month. finished top in Africa while a couple of upsets were saw in South America and Asia where and won over and respectively. Despite their wins, they currently haven’t leapfrogged into being projected to qualify. We’ll see how they perform at the World Championships.
 
Europe saw finish fourth. This was enough to push it into Olympic qualification projection. They pushed out.
 
Rowing
The qualification document was released. There was a change in boat allocation relative to 2024 and the continental qualifier was slightly different than what I projected. Additionally, I assumed coastal rowing would allow 2 men and 2 women to compete in its three events, but the max is 1 man and 1 woman. This has caused significant changes to the projections.
 
Overall, the United States lost four quotas. Canada, France, Germany, Ireland, Lithuania, New Zealand, Norway, and Spain lost two quotas and Algeria, Argentina, Croatia, Cuba, Egypt, Kazakhstan, Netherlands, Portugal, Tunisia lost one quota.
 
The following nations have gained two athletes; Japan, Morocco while the following nations gained one athlete; Angola, Austria, Belgium, Chile, Chinese Taipei, Cote d’Ivoire, Denmark, Estonia, Kuwait, Latvia, Mexico, Romania, Philippines, Paraguay, Puerto Rico, South Africa, South Korea, Switzerland, Togo, Uzbekistan, Vanuatu
 
Rugby Sevens
Fixing a couple of mistakes. First on the men, actually has the Asian quota over and in the women as is essentially shutting down the program, I think it is only right to remove them until they decide to compete again. This means is also projected to qualify.
 
As for new updates, we saw the third tier SVNS compete, which brought no new updates and the Singapore SVNS. I also didn’t add the Dubai or Cape Town SVNS in my calculations. For both, while there was some shuffling no one ultimately fell out.
 
Shooting
The Asian Shotgun Championships were held this month. A few top shooters were missing. The only change to the projection is is set to qualify in women’s trap, pushing out
 
Squash
The Tournament of Champions was held this month. Additionally, the qualification document was released. There was some restriction as to how many nations can send two players and this sport will offer universality quotas.
 
The following nations lost an athlete quota; Colombia, France, Great Britain, Hong Kong, Malaysia, and New Zealand. The following nations gained an athlete quota; Canada, Pakistan, Spain (x2), Switzerland, Ukraine
 
Triathlon
The qualification document was released. There are a few changes relative to 2024. Projection changes include: Losses to Hong Kong and Slovenia and gains for Austria and China.
 
Weightlifting
The qualification document was released. One change to be made was the reallocation process for host nation quotas. Due to this, El Salvador Iraq, Palau, Sri Lanka, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu lost quotas while Australia, China, Dominican Republic, Iran, and Samoa (x2) gained quotas.
 
Wrestling
The qualification document was released. There were some significant changes to the qualification process including using the world rankings and the final qualifier only consisting of non-qualified nations. The projection changes are as follows; losses to Belarus, Bulgaria, China, Georgia, Germany, Hungary, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Russia, South Korea, Sweden, and Turkey.
 
Belgium and Lithuania gained 2 quotas while American Samoa, Austria, Estonia, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Latvia, Madagascar, Spain, and Turkmenistan gained 1 quota.

It would have been nice to keep things closer like Portland or Seattle, but I guess if you already have to take a multi-hour flight you might as well go for bigger places.

Team  Olympic Medal Projections/Prediction
 
 
We're only a day out from the Olympics (I started this a few weeks ago ) so I decided to do a medal prediction for Canada! 
 
- Overview is based on form from the past two seasons (in some cases, if you're a newer athlete/breakout star then no, or in extreme cases for injured athletes that haven't competed this season), recent injuries, and other relevant information, predictions are my own. 
- For freestyle skiing/snowboarding, I tested something out to more accurately project whether their scores would be enough to podium or if their WC/WCHs/X Games podiums were benefited by smaller fields/some of the bigger names missing out, it's flawed slightly but... it'll improve if I decide to. 
- More on that, big air at WC/X Games events sometimes have a different run format than the Olympics, didn't include the scores in the overall and only included them in the athlete averages if two clean runs were landed (I guess I could've added them up regardless...)
- If an athlete didn't make the final, I used their qualification score as their final result (not keen on doing it like that, whatever though)
 
If anyone has any suggestions on how to improve it and make it more accurate feel free to tell me, thanks!
 
I put a lot of effort into this, hours and hours of work, hopefully you'll appreciate this 
 
Alpine Skiing
Pedestrian start to the WC season in terms of medals to say the least, only a single bronze in giant slalom by Val Grenier but it was on her home slope. Usually we've won a few more. With that being said, we've been recording a bunch of top 15 finishes this season, and a medal at the Olympics is definitely possible. All of our podium hopes rest on Valerie Grenier, Cameron Alexander, and Laurence St-Germain. Alexander is finally starting to find his form a few weeks out from the Olympics, his last four races were a 11th in the Crans Montana downhill, an overall SB of 7th in the Wengen downhill, a SB in super-G of 11th in Kitzbuehl, and a 14th in downhill also in Kitzbuehl, he's recorded six top 15 finishes in 11 WC events this season and a further two top 16s. By far our biggest medal hope has to be Grenier though, with one bronze, four top 10s, and eight top 20s in her 15 races this season. All of her top 10 finishes have come in giant slalom, her specialty event, that's the event to keep an eye out for her. St-Germain is another one to watch for, she's raced 5 times this season and while she has yet to crack the top 10, she has four top 15 finishes and a 22nd. Crawford is too out of form probably, but alpine skiing can be unpredictable so who knows. 
 
Prediction: Bronze for Cameron Alexander in downhill
 
Biathlon
No chance only if 10 of the teams disappeared out of nowhere or withdrew from sickness or something  but interestingly enough we were 2nd after the 3rd shoot in the women's relay at the Hochfilzen WC, we'll ignore the complete disaster that saw them miss three times in the final shoot? They definitely have what it takes to pull off a big surprise. Unfortunately, I think that was a massive fluke  and I’d be happy to finish top 12 or better at the Olympics. 
 
Prediction: 0 medals.
 
Bobsleigh
Melissa Lotholz has been building a super consistent WC campaign with a bunch of 5th and 6ths so far (only outliers being an 18th in Sigulda where she crashed and a 16th in Winterberg, there's been a lot of races though), but has still yet to step on the podium. I'm going to say that she'll be a few tenths off, but miss out again.
 
Prediction: 0 medals.
 
Cross Country Skiing
Probably not. For the women, Alison Mackie and Katherine Stewart-Jones have been having strong seasons, Mackie even a career best season, but realistically top 15/20 finishes are what you can hope for out of them, maybe a singular top 10 for Mackie as well. Antoine Cyr/Sonjaa Schmidt are in worse form than last season, so top 25/30 for them. But given it's the Olympics, figure I may as well add some surprises in there.  
 
Prediction: Shocking bronze medal  for Alison Mackie in 10km interval start free
 
Curling
Imagine a world where losing in the quarterfinals and semifinals of a GSOC event is considered a dissapointment. Well, that's exactly what happened to Team Homan the last two GSOC events after having an outstanding last few seasons since 2023-24, barely losing any matches. She's still by far the odds on favourite for gold, most of her losses have came to teams that won't be at the Olympics (Fujisawa, Einarson, Wranå), and she has a psychological advantage against her biggest "rival" Team Tirinzoni having a dominant 13-2 head-to-head record, 8-2 in finals. She probably has a higher chance of losing to Gim or Hasselborg. The GSOC 8-end/shootout rules means you can't always read too much into the results, but Jacobs was 1-4 at the Players Championship, and fell in the quarterfinals at the Canadian Open after starting 3-1... not a good sign. Team Jacobs has been having a great season for the most part but struggled at their most recent event the Players Championships (to be fair it was right after Trials), interesting bit of information from Devin that Jacobs fasted for 110 hours up until today, according to him he's feeling "lean and strong" If that'll translate to an Olympic medal I'm not sure, but I think it will and the performance at the recent GSOC event was a matter of fatigue. Our mixed doubles pairing, Jocelyn Peterman/Brett Gallant have won a lot of their matches this year, and made it to the final of the recently concluded Sherwood Park Mixed Doubles Classic (where they beat the Lotts, lost to Matsumura/Tanida in the final who won't be at the Olympics), but most of their opponents were ranked way below them, 7/10 duos are in contention for medals, and Constantini/Mosaner probably have the gold locked up (with Dodds/Mouat a slight favourite over the rest for silver, and the Schwallers in 7th only slightly because they haven't had the best season)
 
Prediction: Team Homan for gold, and I'm going to say Team Jacobs for bronze?
 
Figure Skating
There's a few semi-decent chances, but don't see it happening. Piper Gilles/Paul Poirier are our biggest hope but the judges have some kind of bias against them with them getting screwed at Finlandia Trophy, it was a big controversy. Stellato Dudek/Deschamps and the team event are long shots. Deanna Stellato Dudek/Maxime Deschamps have been up and down this season, but mainly down, they'll need to skate clean and probably hope there's some falls in other top pairings to get on the podium, and in the team event Japan/US/Georgia/Italy are all favoured over us. Gogolev had a great skate at Nationals, which would've been enough for bronze at Worlds, but probably got a home boost. 
 
Prediction: First Olympics in a while that we don't win a medal in figure skating? (Yes, I know we didn't in 2022, technically. I still count it regardless, Russia should've been disqualified...)
 
Freestyle Skiing
The event with the most Canadian medal chances, besides maybe short track. 
 
For this, and in snowboarding, I decided to calculate World Cup scores from the last two seasons (including the 2026 X Games, by calculating the two best scores) and the last World Championship, and averaging it out while adding a points to accurately determine the average of what it'll take to podium at the Olympics and whether the WC podiums were being benefited by big names missing out. For the individual score averages, I completely forgot to use Worlds scores in some of them, my mistake.
 
Side note, next time around if I do this again I might value the major Championships/X Games/WCs differently for these predictions, and do a limit for discards (more for previous seasons, unless injury hampering them early season)
 
According to the WC/WCHs/X Games scores from the last two seasons here's the projected Olympic title/medal scores by scoring events, adding a few points onto them for Olympic performance and more if unusually low scores (for newer names/breakout stars, only including scores from this season in predictions)
Moguls (adjusted with 1.5 PTS to gold, 1 PT for medalists, with the absence of Mik this season) - Men; Gold- 86.73, Silver- 83.62, Bronze- 81.46
Slopestyle (adjusted with 1 PT to gold/silver, 2 PTS to bronze, highly doubted the previous bronze score will be enough) - Women; Gold- 85.17, Silver- 78.49, Bronze- 75.84 
Big Air  (adjusted with 1 PT to medalists) - Women; Gold- 176.85, Silver- 170.16, Bronze- 163.50 | Men; Gold- 187.26, Silver- 182.92, Bronze- 179.94
Aerials (adjusted with 1 PT to medalists) - Women; Gold- 104.63, Silver- 97.94, Bronze- 89.10 | Men; Gold- 128.58, Silver- 116.56, Bronze- 110.35
Halfpipe (adjusted with 1 PT to medalists) - Women; Gold- 92.31, Silver- 89.02, Bronze- 86.11 | Men; Gold- 94.69, Silver- 92.47, Bronze- 90.42
 
Moguls: The GOAT himself, Mikael Kingsbury, in the debut of dual moguls will look to complete the Olympic double. He hasn’t competed much this season due to a groin injury/preparing for the Olympics in the last few weeks but he’s so good that it would be disappointing if he didn't win both golds or at least a gold and a silver?, but I have PTSD of the moguls final from Beijing so I think he'll win one gold, one silver instead, leaning towards duals for the Olympic title. Past two seasons (really only last season), 11 wins and 17 podiums overall in Moguls, taking out one crash in Deer Valley 2025 and a 13th in Val St Come in 2024), insanity. Julien Viel is also putting forward a strong season in both disciplines, besides his 28th at the season opener in Ruka, he's won two WC medals a bronze in Ruka in moguls and his first career WC win at home in Val St Come in dual moguls along with a 4th in moguls in Waterville, predicting he’ll win bronze in dual moguls. Schwinghammer isn't in the same form she was last season (even though she's still doing well) unfortunately, so I don't see a podium for her. 
 
As far as averages go, Kingsbury has averaged a score of 84.38 in moguls throughout the past two seasons in WCs/WCHs (taking out one crash? and a 13th in Val St Come in 2024), it'll be a tight battle between him and Horishima in both events probably, but definitely in Horishima's stronger event moguls. Horishima won the moguls title last year at Worlds in Bakuriani, and the moguls title at the WC last season in Livigno where the Olympics were held, so he has an advantage in that sense. For Viel, he's averaged 78.89 in moguls, still has the potential for a podium but don't think it'll happen. 
 
Slopestyle/Big Air: The women's events were some of the events I was most excited for before Asselin withdrew from the Olympics with an injury (she competed at the X Games a few days ago, but her heel has two fractures in it from Snowmass, she thought it was just a bruised heel but the pain didn't go away), but we still have 2-3 athletes who could all make it onto the podium. Gaskell is probably a stretch. I think we'll win 1-2 medals, I'll be optimistic and say 2. Naomi Urness with a bronze in big air, and Megan Oldham finally winning an Olympic medal with a silver in slopestyle. Urness is one of our breakout stars of the season, she started off with a 13th in slopestyle in Stubai, but since then has podiumed in all three big air World Cups since then, with a silver in Secret Garden, a bronze in Beijing, and her first. She won slopestyle silver at the X Games, but she has a bigger chance in big air she has more experience with podiums in that event. There's been a few big names not competing at each of the WC stops (same with big air), so it's hard to tell whether Naomi can keep that up, especially with the added pressure of her being a youngster coming into her first Olympics, but she's been rapidly improving and is an absolute beast. For Oldham, she's already a star having won three medals at the last two World Championships, and coming oh so close to a big air podium at Beijing 2022, she still has a lot of unfinished business with the Olympics. She's only competed in slopestyle this season but has finished 4th and 2nd in her two WC events with best run scores of 68.04 in Stubai and 73.02 in Snowmass, she also finished 4th in slopestyle at the X Games (more on that below), won silver in big air with a 90.66 and had a second best score of 84.66, which if she can put that down at the Olympics that would probably be enough to podium if not win gold, and bronze in slopestyle at the 2025 Bakuriani World Champs with a score of 70.63. Watching Oldham at the X Games in slopestyle, she had a mediocre performance and made a mistake in each of her three runs even with the 75.00 (rail in her first, forgot the second too lazy to find the timestamp, and last jump in her third), but rebounded for the big air and I trust that she'll be able to clean it up. In the men's event, Dylan Deschamps won a bronze at the X Games in big air with a combined run score of 181.66 (even though only one run counted there), has two podiums in three big air events this season (including WCs, he has a silver and a 7th), won two bronzes at the beginning of last season in Chur and Beijing, and I'm predicting he'll win an Olympic silver in big air, in a stacked field. Evan McEachran could be in the mix in slopestyle, but unlikely for him to bring home a podium, he'd have to have the rides of his life, he hasn't been consistent enough with either podiums or high scores (he finished 9th in slopestyle at the X Games) and the field is too deep for a mid 80 to podium (he was in the 82s when he won bronze in Laax)
 
As far as averages go, Urness has averaged 164.50 in big air throughout the season (taking out X Games, she was only clean on one run), and Oldham 173.69 in her last two seasons, although she only competed once this season. Would put them both right in the medal mix. In slopestyle, Urness has only recently started to find her rails with her medal at the X Games, with a score of 85.00. Don't think it's fair to average her slopestyle results for her, she has barely any data, and with the data she has saying she'll be in the mid 50s or so seems wrong. For Oldham, she has an average of 74.28 in slopestyle (72.02 this season), taking out a few outliers 9th in Stubai and an 11th in Stoneham from last season. Their medals seem swapped around, but the Olympics can do somewhat unexpected things. For Deschamps, he's averaging 176.73 in big air (177.13 this season), taking out a 9th in Aspen where he was in the low 100s, a 46th in Klagenfurt (didn't land a run), a 14th in Copper Mountain (only one clean run) a 20th in Stubai, and a 1st in Chur, but most were last season and only two runs with best run counts rules.  
 
Aerials: Marion Thenault is the biggest name to keep an eye on. In four major Championships, while she has yet to win an individual medal, she has finished 7th or better in all of them. She's won two silvers (Ruka and Lac-Beaport) and has had a 4th (Lac-Beauport) this season, and was 5th at Worlds last year with a 90.15,  her highest score of the season 82.48 won't hold up for a podium though, and she really struggled at Lake Placid with a 18th and 11th. She always goes for the high difficulty jumps though, if she can clean that up she'll have a much better chance. From her IG stories, looks like training camp is going well. For the men, Miha Fontaine is the best bet for a podium with 3 top 8's in his last four WC stops (a bronze and an 85.45 18th in Lake Placid and a 4th and 8th on his home slope in Lac-Beauport) but it might be a stretch. We won a mixed team bronze in Beijing 2022, I don't imagine we'll repeat that medal, because that's my gut feeling. China and US will probably podium, it'll probably be between us, Ukraine, and Switzerland/Australia for bronze. Switzerland and Australia have glaring weak spots in their female/male representatives, and we have strong aerialists all around, we're probably favourites over them and it's a tossup between us and Ukraine. Of note, in the one WC event this was in, Canada finished 8th but Montminy was competing instead of Thenault. Hoping we win at least one medal here. Funny thing about aerials, whenever I look at the scores most of the athletes never seem to able to land a clean run, and you have people in the 110s/high 80s on the podium and the rest in the 80s/60s (maybe it's only the women and I'm generalizing), it's hilarious. Goes to show how hard it is to land the jumps. 
 
As far as averages go, Thenault has an average of 77.58 the past two seasons (76.22 this season, without her Lake Placid 59) if you take out one of the Lake Placid results from this season and Deer Valley/Livigno from last season, which is where the Olympics will be held. She's having a strong season regardless but she's really benefited from when other aerialists aren't jumping at their best with her high difficulty jumps. She hasn't been in the 90s since last year's World Championships. For Fontaine, discarding his performance in Secret Garden this season and Deer Valley/one of the Lac-Beauport/Lake Placid stops last season, he has an average of 101.44 (99.58 this season) the past two seasons, his first and only time reaching the 110s was in Beidahu last season, this season his best score is a 107.73. Plausible podium. 
 
Ski Cross: Very real chance that for the first time in history we won't win a women's medal, almost unheard of a few seasons ago 
Reece Howden leads the Canadian contingent into the Olympics, having won the 2024-25 Crystal Globe (9 podiums, 7 golds, 1 silver, 1 bronze), currently leading the 2025-26 Crystal Globe standings with 4 golds, 1 silver, 1 bronze, and having won six medals in his last seven races. Out of all the time's he's made the big final, he's only not won gold 5 of those times. That's an 11-5 record of winning golds in big finals, and 14-1 if you include medals. He's probably the favourite in men's ski cross, but went out early on day one of the recent Val Di Fassa WC going out in the 1/16ths in a three-person-heat (won bronze the day after) and struggled at last years World Championships in Bakuriani. He also didn't do well in Beijing, we'll see what happens. I still think he can win gold. Anything can happen in ski cross on the day, Kevin Drury who won his first gold since 2020 last December in Val Thorens also finished 4th behind Howden on day two of the Val Di Fassa WC, and Jared Schmidt who has had three top 8 finishes, almost made the podium this season with a 4th in Innichen, two top 4 finishes last season, and a 9th at the recent Worlds could also medal on the day. Will also point out last Worlds and Olympics there was no Canadian men in the semifinals, bit worrying. Our hopes of a women's ski cross medal rest on flag bearer Marielle Thompson for the most part (who saved us from disaster in Beijing) and an off chance with Hannah Schmidt, with the injuries of Sherret and Hoffos, and Phelan in terrible form. It's been a tough road to recovery for Thompson ever since that knee injury she sustained at the WC in Gudauri, however recently it looks like she's starting to get back on track with back-to-back bronzes in Veysonnaz and Val Di Fassa, she only managed a 13th the next day but man that's promising. Schmidt's first races after Bakuriani, where she suffered heel and ankle fractures, she struggled to find the form that saw her win three medals and consistently make small finals last season, but she has a couple small finals under her belt, and her best result of the season was last week in Veysonnaz a 5th (will mention she struggled in Val Di Fassa). Realistically Brittany Phelan will be aiming for the small final this time around, although I will point out she's historically performed well in Italy, even this season. So who knows, maybe she can pull a Ruka Kingsbury (nowhere near the same level of dominance but...) and win a medal  (probably not)
 
Halfpipe: There's potential for a medal, and potential for us to go home without a medal. Levels, man. 2018 Olympic Champion and 2022 Olympic silver medalist Cassie Sharpe leads the Canadian team having won bronze at the recent X Games with a score of 87, and bronze at the most recent World Championships with a score of 88, even though she's been shut out of the medals in the two WC stops she's competed in this season. Rachael Karker and Brendan MacKay are the next two most likely, they're a bit of an unknown because even though they competed at the X Games, where Karker finished 5th with an 81 and MacKay 5th with a 84 (Karker's is promising, MacKay's depends on if he's been injured really), I believe they've both been injured for a good part of this season? I know Karker mentioned hers, unsure about MacKay but he hasn't been competing. It could also be precautionary, for load management reasoning. Not counting Secret Garden where she withdrew from finals after her knee injury was still lingering which had her for a month, that and the Snow League event in Xiamen where she went out immediately in the quarterfinals (however, probably injured there as well, both were a few days apart in December) were Karker's only competition this season so it's hard to tell where she's at. MacKay, who is the 2023 World Champion, won the men's title at the Snow League event in Xiamen, has competed at two WCs this season in Secret Garden and Calgary (5th best at the first, barely qualified at the second) but interestingly enough withdrew from both finals. Depending on how their three weeks of pre-Olympic training go, they could be in the mix, all depends on the day. Amy Fraser and Andrew Longino are outside shots. Fraser was 4th at the X Games with an 85 and has finished top 6 in each of the two WC events this season (4th in Secret Garden, 6th in Calgary), but has been averaging low 80s this season, and even if she can get into the mid 80s that won't be enough. Longino won his first career WC podium with a bronze in Copper Mountain this season, but it was with a score that would put him nowhere near the podium in Milano-Cortina. 
 
As far as averages go, Sharpe has been ripping 84.58 runs throughout the last two seasons (and 84.80 this season, 78.36 if you include Secret Garden), taking out only a 65.50 from Secret Garden this season. Very consistent. For Karker, she's been injured so this might be inflated, and somewhat inaccurate to her podium hopes, but she's at an 82.54 for the past two seasons, taking out Secret Garden last season where she couldn't land a run in qualification. MacKay is averaging - and - on the season but again they've been injured so it's hard to tell the form they're in. Fraser is averaging 78.11 throughout the last two seasons, and even though she finished 12th at the recent World Championships, she hasn't finished worse than 7th on the WC stage during 2024-25 and 2025-26. Longino is not medaling  not gonna waste my time with him. 
 
Prediction: Gold and silver for Kingsbury in dual moguls and moguls, bronze for Viel in dual moguls, silver for Oldham in slopestyle, bronze for Urness in big air, silver for Deschamps in big air, gold for Howden in ski cross, bronze for Sharpe in halfpipe to complete her medal collection
 
 
Ice Hockey
Women are at least winning a silver, barring disaster. Rivalry series sweep for US and the lopsided wins doesn't have me feeling confident which is why I'm predicting a silver, although they did win the last World Championships which naturally should mean it's our turn? Men have a lot of NHL talent, and have the strongest roster by far, although goaltending is a bit of a weak spot and an upset is possible. Miss the days where we had Price, Luongo, and Fleury backing up the net. Still think we can do it. 
 
Prediction: 1 gold, 1 silver
 
Luge
  (Even Crosby is laughing at us )

Short Track Speed Skating
We've been utter dominant the past two seasons, 21 WC golds last season and 15 this season, with 37 and 31 medals respectively. We also won 6 golds, and 4 bronzes at the last World Championships. But, I don't expect us to do that well at the Olympics, because well... corruption and short track is just about the most unpredictable sport ever, lot's of chaos and falls. Nonetheless, unsurprisingly based off our medals won, our team is stacked. William Dandjinou and Courtney Sarault are the biggest headliners, Dandjinou became the first to win five golds in a single stop and has won 7/12 of the men's individual distances and a silver this season, Sarault has won 5/12 of the women's individual distances and 3 silvers and a bronze this season. Steven Dubois is the reigning World Champion in the 500m and 1000m, he also won medals in those a few years ago at the Worlds in Seoul Worlds, and 500m silver and 1500m bronze at the last Olympics in Beijing. Kim Boutin, always a contender in her specialty event the 500m, and the 1000m. Félix Roussel (mainly in the 1000m/1500m, he'll probably only do the 500m if JPG isn't at his best), Florence Brunelle (1000m/1500m, because Doak will probably take her place in the 500m) are other chances, along with Jordan Pierre-Gilles in the 500m if he can return to form following his knee injury that he suffered last summer, and Rikki Doak who won 500m silver at the last World Championships, although probably a stretch. Men's and women's relays are confusing though because while they're still contenders, and the men should be favourites they did awful the last two World Cup stops? Only the mixed relay has done well. 
 
Prediction: 4 golds, 2 silver, 3 bronzes. Sweep of the men's individual events, and Sarault in the women's 1000m (you would think the 1500m is her biggest chance, but she's undefeated in the event this season) in terms of golds. Boutin bronze in the 500m, men's relay silver, one bronze/one silver out of Dandjinou/Dubois (whoever doesn't win gold) in the 500m/1000m, and mixed relay bronze. Do I actually think this will happen? Absolutely fucking not. Way too unpredictable to sweep the men's events, only one women's gold doesn't sound right, and 9 medals???  
 
Skeleton
Hallie Clarke's season has been almost a copy and paste of Lotholz's, besides her broken nose/tweaked hamstring in Sigulda which led to her underperforming there, and slowly getting back to her level with a 17th in her return in Winterberg, a 7th in St Moritz, and a 13th at the most recent WC in Altenberg. The difference is she has a proven track record when it comes to performing in big events, she won Worlds in 2024, Junior Worlds in 2025 and was 7th in the women's event. Obviously with this being the Olympics the stakes are 5x higher, but she's shown she has what it takes. Still I don't think she'll medal. 
 
Ski Jumping
Right, let's start off with our biggest medal contender in any sport the mixed team event in ski jumping...  (well we did won bronze in 2022... but just kidding, we didn't even qualify)

 
After Loutitt's injury there was always that "what if" in my head. There still is, but Abigail Strate has made me mostly forget about that. She's been on a roll this season and especially lately, with three podiums in a row recently in Sapporo (although she historically does well there), two further silvers in Wisla and Lillehammer in December, a first career WC victory in Obertsdorf (all large hill besides a silver in Sapporo) this year, finished top 10 in 19/20 WC events this season (her worst was a 15th in Falun), and top 5 in 11/20. Strate has a really good chance at winning Canada's first individual medal in ski jumping, she’s slightly better at long hill but not by much she’ll also be a contender in normal hill. 
 
Prediction: Silver for Abigail Strate in large hill
 
Snowboarding
 
Projected Scores for Olympic Podium:
 
Slopestyle  (adjusted with 1 PT to medalists) - Women; Gold- 85.82, Silver- 80.96, Bronze- 76.29 | Men; Gold- 85.44, Silver- 83.31, Bronze- 80.04
Big Air (adjusted with 1 PT to medalists) - Women; Gold- 165.58, Silver- 156.67, Bronze- 149.74 (all of this seems low) | Men; Gold- 179.92, Silver- 173.75, Bronze- 168.68
Halfpipe (adjusted with 1 PT to medalists) - Women; Gold- 92.28, Silver- 88.35, Bronze- 84.67 (doubt this'll be enough for a podium) 
 
Slopestyle/Big Air: Feels fitting to start things off with the legend himself  Mark McMorris who has won bronze medals at the last three Olympics in slopestyle, and has a perfect record of winning medals every time he's at the Olympics. I always forget he's been competing the past two seasons, because he's been invisible for the most part on the WC/World Champs stage  yet somehow he always manages to find another gear during the X Games, he won gold in slopestyle at Aspen 2026 a week ago with a 96! That and taking into consideration his previous Olympic performances he’s certainly trending in the right direction towards another podium. He has chances in both events, but slopestyle is more likely. Cameron Spalding could be one to look out for in slopestyle, he won the 2024-25 Crystal Globe after winning the first two events in Cadrona and Laax, with one score of 86.63 in Laax that could see him on the Olympic podium if he can replicate it but he mostly seems to do better in qualifications, for some reason. On the season, he's only competed at the Snowmass WC, hard to read into it, but he missed the final by a good 12 points. Youngster Eli Bouchard and Francis Jobin round out the team, on the day they could definitely surprise. Bouchard has a chance in big air, he was 4th at the Secret Garden WC this season (although with a score nowhere near what it would take to make the podium) and won his first career WC medal and gold at the Aspen WC with a 189, one of the top scores of the past two seasons in big air. Jobin won his first career WC in Aspen last season in slopestyle, but the winning score of 79.30 is so low that it's not gonna be anywhere near the podium. Of note, he also finished 3rd in qualifications with an 89.25 in Snowmass. Will say though, what a shame Brearley got injured, he was probably our biggest hope for a medal as the reigning World Champion in slopestyle. On the women's side, Olympic slopestyle silver medalist from Pyeongchang 2018 Laurie Blouin is a contender in both events, having won the opening slopestyle event in Aspen but with her bag of tricks can't match Brookes or Sadowski-Synnott when clean. Two of her, Murase, Fukada, Coady, Gasser, Suzuki and Onitsuka should medal in slopestyle or big air, but the competition is tough. 
 
As for averages, putting any for McMorris seems wrong given how bad he's been, but he's definitely in the mix. For Spalding during the past two seasons he's averaged 78.09 in four slopestyle events, besides a rough patch in the North American swing of Aspen/Calgary last season which he couldn't land a clean run in either final. Bouchard who has only made the final in big air twice (three if you include the 24-person field) the past two WC seasons, averages 108.55 for 2024-25/2025-26 (again, no scores from best score two run WCs, as it isn't the Olympic format). I'd consider them making the final in their respective specialty disciplines or just missing out a success. Jobin has averaged 65.69 the past two seasons in slopestyle (49,48 this season, skewed as it's been his only event), if he can improve on that with a run in the 70s a final is possible for him too. Blouin has an average of 69.62 the past few seasons in slopestyle (however 76.51 this season, she's been in the mid 70s/low 80s in all three events), discarding Cadrona and World Champs from last season. In big air, she's only competed three times! recently but has an average of 115.83, I'd expect her score to be much closer to the 157.37 of her two best finishes during that period.  
 
Halfpipe: Elizabeth Hosking is our only contender, but unlikely even with her WC win in Calgary this season, like with Blouin, it'll require a clean run and mistakes from others with Choi, Shimizu, Ono, and Kim if healthy starting as the favourites. Choi and Shimizu have been too consistent to miss the podium (anything can happen though, especially with the added pressure of an Olympics), and Castellet, her, Tomita, Mastro, Xuetong will probably fight for the other spot. She'll likely be in the low-mid 80s and hoping for a top 5, but just for fun her average score the past two seasons is a 69.58 (and 68.43 on the season), discarding a 20.25 28th at the Aspen WC. 
Snowboard Cross: Beijing Olympic silver medalist Eliot Grondin will look to go one better after finishing a photo finish away from gold, as the current World Champion, 2024-25 Crystal Globe winner with 3 golds, 2 silver and a bronze, and 2nd in the 2025-26 standings so far. He's arguably second favourite after Lambert who's in career best form and leads the WC standings, with podiums in all three of his races so far, the French contingent (Surget, Bozzolo, and Jonas and Aidan Chollet), Ulbricht, Noerl, Hammerle, Sommariva and Dusek could all provide some adversity. He's not bad at passing, but the key for him in the semifinal/big final if he can make it is getting off to a strong start and holding the lead into the first few turns (like Howden, but Howden is better at passing and has a slightly stronger start and gets overtaken less when in the lead IMO). 
Parallel Giant Slalom: Righty, I'll try to make this quick because of how long this is, but Aurelie Moisan has been recording top 13 finishes left and right this season (9 in 11 this season), with her only disappointing finishes being in Rogla a few days ago and Bad Gastien. Somehow she's yet to win a WC medal? Only a matter of time though if she keeps this up. Arnaud Gaudet is less likely, but still possible. He won his first career WC podium with a silver in Bankso a few weeks ago, outside of that he's mostly finished in the top 10-25 range. 
 
Prediction: Gold for Eliot Grondin in ski cross, Silver for Mark McMorris in slopestyle (I just want him to win a non-bronze Olympic medal) and that's it. 
 
 
Speed Skating
Even though Blondin, Weidemann, and Maltais have been in solid form lately, Netherlands' 2x World Championships pursuit team of Beune, Groenewoud, de Jong, are out of reach this time around in women's team pursuit, they've been way too dominant to get beaten barring Netherlands pulling a Beijing 2022 Japan  (but if they're far ahead as usual near the end of the race they might play it safe to avoid that), silver will likely be between us and Japan but we should podium. We have a strong 1-2 in the women's mass start with Ivanie Blondin and Valerie Maltais, who are probably the second and third favourites behind Groenewoud, they won bronze and silver behind her at the WC in Inzell a week ago, Blondin also won bronze at the previous WC in Hamar, Maltais was 5th. Even though Groenewoud has had the head to head, mass starts are usually very unpredictable nothing will surprise me. Isabelle Weidemann, who collected a medal of each colour in Beijing, will once again be amongst the contenders in the 3000m/5000m, she won silver in both the Heerenveen WC 5000m and the Hamar WC 3000m, and hasn't finished worse than 7th all season long. Wiklund in the 3000m/5000m and Beune in the 3000m are much faster though, at best it'll be a bronze in the 3000m and silver in the 5000m. Maltais had her best WC of the season last week in Inzell with the silver in the mass start and bronze in the 3000m, seems like she's peaking at just the right moment. The other big breakout star of the season, Béatrice Lamarche is entered in the 500m/1000m. She's only been on one podium this season, a 1000m bronze in Salt Lake City, but outside of a singular 17th in the 500m in Hamar, she's been recording top 11 finishes all season long. Definitely a name to watch for in the future. Veteran Ted-Jan Bloemen headlines the Canadian men's squad, competing in the 5000m/10000m, where he won Olympic silver/gold in Pyeongchang 2018, I feel like father time is catching up to him somewhat though he's 39 and those him younger stars Jilek, Eitrem, Ghiotto, Dawson, Loubineaud are so good that even if he's having a solid season by his standards I don't see him hanging with those guys. Antoine Gelinas-Beaulieu would need to pull off some sort of rabbit in a hat magic trick to podium in the mass start even if he did win bronze at the Salt Lake City WC, there's a very very very unlikely chance but wouldn't hold my breath. Unfortunate that Dubreuil has been out of form all season long, the men's team really needs him. 
 
Prediction: Silver for the women's team pursuit, bronze for Blondin in the mass start, bronze for Weidemann in the 5000m. I think Weidemann might just miss the podium in the 3000m, same with Maltais.  
 
Total: 9 G, 8 S, 11 B, when making these predictions I was optimistic for once even though I think it'll be at least a few less. 

The less politics part essentially confirms my suspicion that both Belarus and Russia will compete under their own flag in 2028. The Refugee Team may be at risk or at the very least the team will be a lot smaller.
 
In terms of sport program, I think the plan is to remove nostalgia from the equation. If an event only has 10-20 active nations then maybe it doesn't belong at the Olympics.

Squash
This is a new sport here's how the quotas are distributed by gender:
 
Continental Games - 5
Host Nation - 1
World Rankings - 8
Universality - 1
Final Qualification Tournament - 1
 
Only the top 2 nations (based on the ranking of the second athlete) may enter two athletes. Potentially, a third nation may enter two, but only if there aren't enough eligible athletes in the top 50.
 
The final qualification tournament will consist of the top 24 nations which do not have a quota.

Squash
This is a new sport here's how the quotas are distributed by gender:
 
Continental Games - 5
Host Nation - 1
World Rankings - 8
Universality - 1
Final Qualification Tournament - 1
 
Only the top 2 nations (based on the ranking of the second athlete) may enter two athletes. Potentially, a third nation may enter two, but only if there aren't enough eligible athletes in the top 50.
 
The final qualification tournament will consist of the top 24 nations which do not have a quota.

Sport Climbing
Speed reduced the World Championship quota down to 1 per gender and increased the Olympic Qualifier Series to 6. Also the Pan American and European qualifiers will take priority over the World Championships because they will occur first.
 
Bouldering and Lead are now separate events and were given additional athlete quotas (taken from Modern Pentathlon) giving them 12 per gender. They follow the same qualification process as Speed, but with the Olympic Qualifier Series offering only 4 quotas. Additionally, athletes qualified in one event may compete in the other provided the NOC doesn't go above two athletes per event.
 
Currently this cross participation doesn't apply to Speed, but I'm not sure it was a mistake or intended. Though not many speed athletes are top lead/bouldering athletes.

Rowing
Lightweight double sculls was removed from the program. The 64 athlete quotas were transferred to coastal rowing which I will discuss below. Among the returning event, one boat was added in the single sculls while one boat was removed in the double sculls and pairs. A new feature is that nations may enter in events where they didn't qualify normally using athletes qualified in other events. Six coxswain quotas have been set aside for nations wishing to compete in Eights.
 
For coastal rowing; 17 boats will compete in the men's/women's single sculls while 15 boats will compete in the mixed double sculls. 6 boats in each event will qualify at the World Beach Sprint Finals. The continental qualifiers will award 9 boats in each event (2 for Africa, Asia, Europe, and Pan America, 1 for Oceania). The single sculls will also have a spot for the host nation and a tripartite invitation. Nations can only qualify 1 man and 1 woman (though the athletes can compete in both the single sculls and double sculls events). The quota allocation priority is:
1. Mixed double sculls (World)
2. Mixed double sculls (Continental)
3. Men's/Women's Single Sculls (World)
4. Men's/Women's Single Sculls (Continental)

Rowing
Lightweight double sculls was removed from the program. The 64 athlete quotas were transferred to coastal rowing which I will discuss below. Among the returning event, one boat was added in the single sculls while one boat was removed in the double sculls and pairs. A new feature is that nations may enter in events where they didn't qualify normally using athletes qualified in other events. Six coxswain quotas have been set aside for nations wishing to compete in Eights.
 
For coastal rowing; 17 boats will compete in the men's/women's single sculls while 15 boats will compete in the mixed double sculls. 6 boats in each event will qualify at the World Beach Sprint Finals. The continental qualifiers will award 9 boats in each event (2 for Africa, Asia, Europe, and Pan America, 1 for Oceania). The single sculls will also have a spot for the host nation and a tripartite invitation. Nations can only qualify 1 man and 1 woman (though the athletes can compete in both the single sculls and double sculls events). The quota allocation priority is:
1. Mixed double sculls (World)
2. Mixed double sculls (Continental)
3. Men's/Women's Single Sculls (World)
4. Men's/Women's Single Sculls (Continental)

Rowing
Lightweight double sculls was removed from the program. The 64 athlete quotas were transferred to coastal rowing which I will discuss below. Among the returning event, one boat was added in the single sculls while one boat was removed in the double sculls and pairs. A new feature is that nations may enter in events where they didn't qualify normally using athletes qualified in other events. Six coxswain quotas have been set aside for nations wishing to compete in Eights.
 
For coastal rowing; 17 boats will compete in the men's/women's single sculls while 15 boats will compete in the mixed double sculls. 6 boats in each event will qualify at the World Beach Sprint Finals. The continental qualifiers will award 9 boats in each event (2 for Africa, Asia, Europe, and Pan America, 1 for Oceania). The single sculls will also have a spot for the host nation and a tripartite invitation. Nations can only qualify 1 man and 1 woman (though the athletes can compete in both the single sculls and double sculls events). The quota allocation priority is:
1. Mixed double sculls (World)
2. Mixed double sculls (Continental)
3. Men's/Women's Single Sculls (World)
4. Men's/Women's Single Sculls (Continental)

Flag Football
This is a new sport. Along with the host nation, two nations will qualify at the 2026 World Championships and three will qualify at the 2028 Olympic Qualifier Series.
 
The Olympic Qualifier Series will be a 10 team tournament consisting of two nations from each continent based on their performance at their respective 2027 Continental Championships.

Rhythmic Gymnastics
The 2026-27 World Cup series will be part of the qualification process. This will occur after the 2026 World Champs, but before the 2027 World Champs. The top 2 eligible individuals and top eligible group will qualify. This caused a reduction of quotas available at the 2027 World Championships which now offer 12 individual and 4 group quotas.

Flag Football
This is a new sport. Along with the host nation, two nations will qualify at the 2026 World Championships and three will qualify at the 2028 Olympic Qualifier Series.
 
The Olympic Qualifier Series will be a 10 team tournament consisting of two nations from each continent based on their performance at their respective 2027 Continental Championships.

Diving
For the individual events, only the top 8 at the World Championships will qualify (2024 was top 12). The continental qualifiers now require 3 eligible nations to compete (as with 2024, only the gold medalist is eligible) and the final qualifier will now be two World Cup stops. Athletes will be ranked based on their best score and whether they advanced to the finals/semifinals. Additionally, if a continent is missing and an athlete has achieved the minimum score at the World Cup then that athlete will qualify.
 
For the synchronized events, only the World Cups will award quotas. 3 at World Cup Stop 1, 3 at World Cup Stop 2 and a final one based on the best score of the two World Cups not yet qualified.

Correct

Canoe Sprint
There is a now a cap of 5 athletes per gender in the kayak events (down from 6 in 2024). The World Championships has been replaced by the Olympic Qualification Rankings.
 
K2 lost 2 boat quotas while K4 has gained 1 boat quota. Quota distribution is quite complicated as it usually is for canoe sprint. They also force nations to compete in a minimum number of events based on the number of athletes qualified; 2 and 3 athletes per boat class must compete in 2 events, 4 must compete in all 3 events and 5 must compete in all 3 events and have two entries in the K1 event.

Canoe Sprint
There is a now a cap of 5 athletes per gender in the kayak events (down from 6 in 2024). The World Championships has been replaced by the Olympic Qualification Rankings.
 
K2 lost 2 boat quotas while K4 has gained 1 boat quota. Quota distribution is quite complicated as it usually is for canoe sprint. They also force nations to compete in a minimum number of events based on the number of athletes qualified; 2 and 3 athletes per boat class must compete in 2 events, 4 must compete in all 3 events and 5 must compete in all 3 events and have two entries in the K1 event.

I'm glad they didn't try to force continental representation in flag football. Looking at the proposed date ranges for the qualifier series (including the continental championships) it seems they are making it as easy as possible for NFL (and CFL for Canada) players to compete. I still don't know if established nations will go that route or stick with people who know the game, but I imagine smaller nations may try to go that route.
 
I guess don't be surprised if the likes of  or  become viable nations during the qualification process.

I'm glad they didn't try to force continental representation in flag football. Looking at the proposed date ranges for the qualifier series (including the continental championships) it seems they are making it as easy as possible for NFL (and CFL for Canada) players to compete. I still don't know if established nations will go that route or stick with people who know the game, but I imagine smaller nations may try to go that route.
 
I guess don't be surprised if the likes of  or  become viable nations during the qualification process.