LDOG 2,199 Posted December 30, 2023 #71 Share Posted December 30, 2023 (edited) My team sport predictions with tiers (I prefer doing it this way instead of just handing out G, S & B): I'll put an * next to not already qualified teams (in some cases I'll be considering the chances of two teams that can't both qualify, eg. Slovenia and Greece in men's basketball). These are tiers that grade the teams according to my perception of their chances to win a medal (ANY medal, not just gold). Though if I rate a team in the highest tier ("very likely to win a medal") it also means they're the main gold medal favorite for me. If you see that a qualified team is not included in any tier then it means I believe the medal chances of that team are rather marginal. I opted to skip 3x3 predictions cuz my knowledge is not deep enough (I follow the results but I'm not too aware about roster changes from tournament to tournament and such). Tiers... Tier 1 - Very Likely to win a medal Tier 2 - Likely to win a medal Tier 3 - In contention for a medal Tier 4 - Outside chance of a medal Spoiler Men's Football Tier 1: France Tier 2: Brazil* Tier 3: Argentina*, Uruguay*, Japan*, Spain, All african teams. TIer 4: Ukraine, USA Women's Football Tier 1: - Tier 2: USA, Spain* Tier 3: France, Netherlands*, Germany*, Japan* Tier 4: Australia* Men's Basketball Tier 1: USA Tier 2: Canada Tier 3: France, Spain*, Germany, Serbia Tier 4: Australia, Greece*, Slovenia* Women's Basketball Tier 1: USA Tier 2: - Tier 3: Australia*, Canada*, China*, France, Serbia*, Spain* Tier 4: Japan* Men's Handball Tier 1: France, Denmark Tier 2: - Tier 3: Spain*, Sweden* Tier 4: Croatia*, Egypt*, Germany*, Hungary*, Norway* Women's Handball Tier 1: - Tier 2: France, Norway Tier 3: Denmark, Montenegro*, Netherlands*, Sweden* Tier 4: Germany*, Hungary* Men's Hockey Tier 1: - Tier 2: Belgium*, Germany*, Netherlands Tier 3: Australia, GB* Tier 4: India, Spain* Women's Hockey Tier 1: Netherlands Tier 2: - Tier 3: Argentina, Australia, Belgium*, Germany* Tier 4: GB* Men's Rugby Sevens Tier 1: - Tier 2: New Zealand Tier 3: Argentina, Fiji, France, South Africa* Tier 4: Australia, Ireland, Samoa Women's Rugby Sevens Tier 1: Australia, New Zealand Tier 2: - Tier 3: France, USA Tier 4: Canada, Fiji, Ireland Men's Volleyball Tier 1: - Tier 2: Poland Tier 3: Brazil, France, Italy*, USA Tier 4: Japan Women's Volleyball Tier 1: - Tier 2: Turkey Tier 3: Brazil, China*, Italy*, Serbia, USA Tier 4: Poland Men's Water Polo Tier 1: - Tier 2: Spain* Tier 3: Greece, Hungary, Italy*, Serbia* Tier 4: Croatia*, Montenegro* Women's Water Polo Tier 1: USA Tier 2: - Tier 3: Australia, Hungary*, Italy*, Netherlands, Spain Tier 4: Greece* Edited December 30, 2023 by LDOG Morten Jensen, orangeman, Wumo and 4 others 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Josh 5,973 Posted December 30, 2023 #72 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Good list, I would also add Canada as an outside chance in women’s football. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rajiv 25 Posted December 31, 2023 #73 Share Posted December 31, 2023 5 hours ago, Josh said: Good list, I would also add Canada as an outside chance in women’s football. Is there any event where you don't think Canada is an outside chance of a medal? Makedonas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Josh 5,973 Posted December 31, 2023 #74 Share Posted December 31, 2023 7 hours ago, rajiv said: Is there any event where you don't think Canada is an outside chance of a medal? There’s hundreds of them. I could name them all, but that would take up way too much time. IMO Canada has medal chances in all sports except rhythmic gymnastics, sport climbing, canoe slalom, field hockey, volleyball, waterpolo, artistic swimming, badminton, table tennis, modern pentathlon, shooting and handball, triathlon. (I might be missing some, but these are the ones I can think of off the top of my head) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dragon 1,713 Posted December 31, 2023 #75 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Speaking as a Brit with Canadian ancestry (unlikely I know but true) any Canadian Olympic success is fine by me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rafa Maciel 1,336 Posted January 31 #76 Share Posted January 31 Nielsen's Gracenote Virtual Medal Table - January 2024 At the 6-month countdown to Paris, Gracenote have released their updated virtual medal table: NOC Gold Silver Bronze Total Change Since Last Release 37 46 46 129 Up 3 medals overall - 2 additional silver and 1 additional bronze 35 28 22 85 Up 7 medals in overall - 3 additional silver and 4 additional bronze. 26 16 11 53 Down 1 medal overall - 1 gold downgraded to silver and 1 bronze lost. 17 22 25 64 Down 2 silver medals offset by 1 additional bronze for overall drop of 1 medal in total. 17 15 24 56 Down 2 medals in total - 1 additional silver medal gained offset by drop of 3 bronze medals. 16 9 10 35 Down 2 medals in total - dropping 1 silver and 1 bronze medal. 15 17 16 48 Down 2 medals in total - dropping 2 bronze medals. 13 12 22 47 Down 1 medal in total - 2 silver medals dropped offset by an additional bronze medal. 10 14 15 39 Up 2 medals overall - 1 additional silver and 1 additional bronze. 7 6 10 23 Moves into top ten (replaces Canada) Jinzha and dullard 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rafa Maciel 1,336 Posted January 31 #77 Share Posted January 31 Gracenote's gold medal projections for seem uncontroversial (although the keirin is always a bit of a lottery): Men's Rugby 7's Team Women's Rugby 7's Team Women's Keirin: Ellesse Andrews Canoe Sprint - Women's K1 500m: Lisa Carrington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sindo 1,253 Posted January 31 #78 Share Posted January 31 5 minutes ago, Rafa Maciel said: Nielsen's Gracenote Virtual Medal Table - January 2024 At the 6-month countdown to Paris, Gracenote have released their updated virtual medal table: NOC Gold Silver Bronze Total Change Since Last Release 37 46 46 129 Up 3 medals overall - 2 additional silver and 1 additional bronze 35 28 22 85 Up 7 medals in overall - 3 additional silver and 4 additional bronze. 26 16 11 53 Down 1 medal overall - 1 gold downgraded to silver and 1 bronze lost. 17 22 25 64 Down 2 silver medals offset by 1 additional bronze for overall drop of 1 medal in total. 17 15 24 56 Down 2 medals in total - 1 additional silver medal gained offset by drop of 3 bronze medals. 16 9 10 35 Down 2 medals in total - dropping 1 silver and 1 bronze medal. 15 17 16 48 Down 2 medals in total - dropping 2 bronze medals. 13 12 22 47 Down 1 medal in total - 2 silver medals dropped offset by an additional bronze medal. 10 14 15 39 Up 2 medals overall - 1 additional silver and 1 additional bronze. 7 6 10 23 Moves into top ten (replaces Canada) Comparing to our Latest World Championships Medal Count, France has 13 more gold medals, which could be explainable with the host country advantage. But GBR has 25 gold medals in our table and only 17 in Gracenote table, that's a huge gap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prakash_k 32 Posted January 31 #79 Share Posted January 31 What about neutral athletes from 🇷🇺 and 🇧🇾 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rafa Maciel 1,336 Posted January 31 #80 Share Posted January 31 12 minutes ago, Prakash_k said: What about neutral athletes from 🇷🇺 and 🇧🇾 ? Gracenote took the decision not to include them in the analysis because they have been absent from international competition so they couldn't be factored into their model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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