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Rafa Maciel

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  1. Wow!
    Rafa Maciel got a reaction from heywoodu in BMX Cycling Qualification to Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024   
    With the 2022 World Cup season completed I've run a quick projection for BMX Racing qualification based on current world rankings.
     
    Men
    3 Riders:  
    2 Riders:   
    1 Rider:     
     
    Compared to Tokyo 2020, the Netherlands be down 2 riders whilst USA and Ecuador would be down 1.  
     
    Colombia, Australia, Germany and Great Britain would gain 1 rider. 
     
    Women
    3 Riders:  
    2 Riders:   
    1 Rider:     
     
    Compared to Tokyo 2020, Russia would lose their 2 riders whilst USA, Australia, New Zealand and France would lose 1 rider. 
     
    Japan would qualify by right rather than having to rely on the host nation allocation.  As with the Men's event, Colombia and Great Britain would both gain an additional berth in the event whilst Switzerland would be the big gainers, picking up additional 2 riders.
     
    6 other places will be allocated via continental/world championships in '23 and '24
  2. Like
    Rafa Maciel got a reaction from Giovanni Gianni Cattaneo in Judo Qualification to Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024   
    So finally, the IJF seem to have updated their website to include Olympic rankings. Unfortunately, they don't seem to be able to actually manage the process of updating the rankings correctly so here's my take on the position as at the end of October. 
     
    This month's ranking update includes the World Champs, the Abu Dhabi Grand Slam and the Perth Continental Open:
     

     
    For the most part, nations were fairly flat in terms of their qualification numbers this month, either picking up or dropping one weight class. 
     
     saw biggest movement on the downside, shedding 6 places whilst the unwinding of  positions continues as they drop 4. 
     
     were the biggest gainers this month, picking up 5 spots whilst  picked up 4. 
     
    In the team event,  and  now qualify whilst  and  would not.
  3. Like
    Rafa Maciel got a reaction from dcro in Artistic Gymnastics FIG World Championships 2022   
    Canada squeezed into the final by just 0.3 points and look set to walk away with a medal and an Olympic quota spot 
  4. Like
    Rafa Maciel got a reaction from Adriano in Artistic Gymnastics FIG World Championships 2022   
    After vault, USA are down by 0.133 on qualification. GBR have given up 0.433
  5. Like
    Rafa Maciel got a reaction from Adriano in Artistic Gymnastics FIG World Championships 2022   
    After uneven bars, Brazil have gained 0.394 on qualification, ITA have lost 3.4
     
    On beam, CHN have lost 1.833 whilst JPN have dropped 1.767
     
    Finally on floor, FRA are down 1.233 whilst CAN are down 0.699
  6. Like
    Rafa Maciel got a reaction from Giovanni Gianni Cattaneo in Track Cycling Qualification to Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024   
    According to the qualification documentation, the qualification period runs from 9th July 2022 to 14th April 2024 so technically the ranking has begun although as with all systems based on rankings, the position 2 years out is largely meaningless and is indicative only.
     
     
  7. Wow!
    Rafa Maciel got a reaction from konig in Judo IJF World Championships 2022   
    Really disappointing that Team GB are sending a relatively small team to these championships - particularly the fact they are only sending 2 male judokas and unfortunately, they've been handed some pretty poor draws. 
     
    Men's 60Kg - Samuel Hall should be able to come through his first round but would then be up against world number 1 Yang Yung Wei
     
    Men's 81Kg - Lachlan Moorhead hasn't had great consistency this year so I think he will struggle against the world number 17 Eljan Hajiyev. If he does make it through, he would be up against world number 2 Matthias Casse of Belgium.
     
    Women's 52Kg - Although seeded, Chelsie Giles will have tough opening bout against Liu Liping of China.
     
    Women's 57Kg - Acelya Toprak hasn't made the most of the opportunities she's had in the cycle to the point that she's not the highest placed Team GB athlete in the qualification ranking and now has Nekoda Smythe Davis back and performing well. Toprak has been drawn against Germany's Pauline Starke who is ranked 14th in the world. Come through that and she would be against world number 4 Sarah Leonie Cysique of France. 
     
    Women's 63Kg - First appearance of world number 1 Lucy Renshall in this qualification cycle. She had shoulder surgery over the summer so it will be interesting to see how she has rehabilitated. Her first match up is against either Cristina Cabana Perez of Spain or Amina Belkadi of Algeria. 
     
    Women's 70Kg - Kelly Pollard Petersen is seeded 8 and has a first-round bye. She will take on either world number 17 Gulnoza Matniyazova of Uzbekistan or USA's Chantal Wright. Katie-Jemima Yeats-Brown could face world number 2 Sanne Van Djike if she can safely navigate the first round.
     
    Women's 78Kg - Would like to see both Natalie Powell and Emma Reid make good progress in the draw. Powell has Morocco's Hafsa Yatim in the round of 32 whilst Reid is up against Ma Zhenzhao of China. 
     
  8. Thanks
    Rafa Maciel got a reaction from Jinzha in Track Cycling Qualification to Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024   
    The Netherlands are currently ranked 11th and about 2,000 shy of a place in top 8. I expect them to make some progress at World Championships and then continue that progress in 2023. 
  9. Like
    Rafa Maciel got a reaction from Dennis in Track Cycling Qualification to Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024   
    Current quota projection based on Sept '22 month-end rankings:
     

     
    With the World Championships taking place next week, I'd expect to see some movement in quotas but at this very, very early stage in the qualification cycle, a couple of things are worth highlighting:
     
     projected to gain a couple of extra riders on the women's side, fielding 2 riders in both the Individual Sprint and the Keirin despite the fact that they are just outside the qualification criteria for the Team Sprint event.
     
     projected to gain a spot in the Men's Team Pursuit
     
     is not currently projected to secure any quotas on the track. I've been running these projections for the last few months and across the board China has dropped back in the rankings to the point that they're not even all that close to securing a qualifying position. I assume this is due to the fact that they haven't been fully engaged on the international circuit due to Covid so I expect this to change as we go through the 2023 season. 
     
     are finally projected to close the only real gap in the track team with a spot in the Women's Team Sprint. This would be the first time since London 2012 that Team GB have competed in the event. This also has the added advantage of securing an additional individual spot in the Women's Keirin and Individual Sprint events.
     
     projected to secure 4 additional quotas on the track with 2 riders in both the Women's Individual Sprint and Keirin events.
     
     currently look like they could be heading towards a bigger squad than they fielded for their home games with quotas gained in both the Men's and Women's Team Sprits. This would mean they would have 2 individual berths in the Individual Sprint and Keirin events. They are also projected to take a berth in the Men's Madison.
     
  10. Like
    Rafa Maciel got a reaction from rybak in Track Cycling Qualification to Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024   
    Current quota projection based on Sept '22 month-end rankings:
     

     
    With the World Championships taking place next week, I'd expect to see some movement in quotas but at this very, very early stage in the qualification cycle, a couple of things are worth highlighting:
     
     projected to gain a couple of extra riders on the women's side, fielding 2 riders in both the Individual Sprint and the Keirin despite the fact that they are just outside the qualification criteria for the Team Sprint event.
     
     projected to gain a spot in the Men's Team Pursuit
     
     is not currently projected to secure any quotas on the track. I've been running these projections for the last few months and across the board China has dropped back in the rankings to the point that they're not even all that close to securing a qualifying position. I assume this is due to the fact that they haven't been fully engaged on the international circuit due to Covid so I expect this to change as we go through the 2023 season. 
     
     are finally projected to close the only real gap in the track team with a spot in the Women's Team Sprint. This would be the first time since London 2012 that Team GB have competed in the event. This also has the added advantage of securing an additional individual spot in the Women's Keirin and Individual Sprint events.
     
     projected to secure 4 additional quotas on the track with 2 riders in both the Women's Individual Sprint and Keirin events.
     
     currently look like they could be heading towards a bigger squad than they fielded for their home games with quotas gained in both the Men's and Women's Team Sprits. This would mean they would have 2 individual berths in the Individual Sprint and Keirin events. They are also projected to take a berth in the Men's Madison.
     
  11. Thanks
    Rafa Maciel got a reaction from Jinzha in BMX Cycling Qualification to Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024   
    With the 2022 World Cup season completed I've run a quick projection for BMX Racing qualification based on current world rankings.
     
    Men
    3 Riders:  
    2 Riders:   
    1 Rider:     
     
    Compared to Tokyo 2020, the Netherlands be down 2 riders whilst USA and Ecuador would be down 1.  
     
    Colombia, Australia, Germany and Great Britain would gain 1 rider. 
     
    Women
    3 Riders:  
    2 Riders:   
    1 Rider:     
     
    Compared to Tokyo 2020, Russia would lose their 2 riders whilst USA, Australia, New Zealand and France would lose 1 rider. 
     
    Japan would qualify by right rather than having to rely on the host nation allocation.  As with the Men's event, Colombia and Great Britain would both gain an additional berth in the event whilst Switzerland would be the big gainers, picking up additional 2 riders.
     
    6 other places will be allocated via continental/world championships in '23 and '24
  12. Like
    Rafa Maciel got a reaction from De_Gambassi in BMX Cycling Qualification to Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024   
    With the 2022 World Cup season completed I've run a quick projection for BMX Racing qualification based on current world rankings.
     
    Men
    3 Riders:  
    2 Riders:   
    1 Rider:     
     
    Compared to Tokyo 2020, the Netherlands be down 2 riders whilst USA and Ecuador would be down 1.  
     
    Colombia, Australia, Germany and Great Britain would gain 1 rider. 
     
    Women
    3 Riders:  
    2 Riders:   
    1 Rider:     
     
    Compared to Tokyo 2020, Russia would lose their 2 riders whilst USA, Australia, New Zealand and France would lose 1 rider. 
     
    Japan would qualify by right rather than having to rely on the host nation allocation.  As with the Men's event, Colombia and Great Britain would both gain an additional berth in the event whilst Switzerland would be the big gainers, picking up additional 2 riders.
     
    6 other places will be allocated via continental/world championships in '23 and '24
  13. Like
    Rafa Maciel got a reaction from Vic Liu in Judo Qualification to Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024   
    Ahead of next week's World Championship, and for those interested, I have updated my tracker projecting current ranking qualification status to show results of all events up to 30th September (including Junior World Champs)
     

     
    Individually,  were the biggest gainers over the course of the last month, with the latest projection showing them picking up 5 additional quotas with both  and  gaining 3. 
     
     and  were the biggest losers, dropping 4 and 3 quotas respectively. In both cases, the drop in quotas was predominantly due to their men dropping back in the overall rankings.
     
    As a result of their men falling back, both  and  are no longer projected to qualify for the team event. They are replaced by    and 
     
    With the World Champs and the Abu Dhabi Grand Slam taking place next month, we could potentially see some big changes in the rankings in the next few weeks. 
     
  14. Thanks
    Rafa Maciel got a reaction from Makedonas in Judo Qualification to Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024   
    Ahead of next week's World Championship, and for those interested, I have updated my tracker projecting current ranking qualification status to show results of all events up to 30th September (including Junior World Champs)
     

     
    Individually,  were the biggest gainers over the course of the last month, with the latest projection showing them picking up 5 additional quotas with both  and  gaining 3. 
     
     and  were the biggest losers, dropping 4 and 3 quotas respectively. In both cases, the drop in quotas was predominantly due to their men dropping back in the overall rankings.
     
    As a result of their men falling back, both  and  are no longer projected to qualify for the team event. They are replaced by    and 
     
    With the World Champs and the Abu Dhabi Grand Slam taking place next month, we could potentially see some big changes in the rankings in the next few weeks. 
     
  15. Thanks
    Rafa Maciel got a reaction from Makedonas in Judo Qualification to Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024   
    The qualification window for Judo opened at the end of June and so far there have been 8 qualifying events staged - 2 Grand Slams, 1 Grand Prix and 5 Continental Opens. Annoyingly, the IJF haven't got their act together for the last couple of months and they haven't been publishing the Olympic Ranking list on their website. 
     
    I've gone through the results from 7 of the 8 qualifying events - I haven't included the results of Tahiti Oceania Open - to generate my own tracker of current qualification position.
     

     
    Couple of caveats:
    1) This only covers the top 17 in the rankings (and France as hosts) - it doesn't take into account the continental quotas
     
    2) Russia are included in the list despite the fact that they haven't been competing on the tour. At the moment, the rankings are heavily driven by the results from the Grand Slams and Russia were included in and performed pretty well at the Ulaanbaatar GS. I guess with the World Champs taking place in Uzbekistan, there is a possibility that Russian judokas may be there too. 
     
    In terms of the team event, at the moment, by my reckoning the following nations would be qualified:
     
             
     
    It's still early days and a lot will change will change before the end of the qualification window
  16. Like
    Rafa Maciel got a reaction from konig in Judo Qualification to Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024   
    Ahead of next week's World Championship, and for those interested, I have updated my tracker projecting current ranking qualification status to show results of all events up to 30th September (including Junior World Champs)
     

     
    Individually,  were the biggest gainers over the course of the last month, with the latest projection showing them picking up 5 additional quotas with both  and  gaining 3. 
     
     and  were the biggest losers, dropping 4 and 3 quotas respectively. In both cases, the drop in quotas was predominantly due to their men dropping back in the overall rankings.
     
    As a result of their men falling back, both  and  are no longer projected to qualify for the team event. They are replaced by    and 
     
    With the World Champs and the Abu Dhabi Grand Slam taking place next month, we could potentially see some big changes in the rankings in the next few weeks. 
     
  17. Like
    Rafa Maciel got a reaction from Josh in Judo Qualification to Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024   
    Ahead of next week's World Championship, and for those interested, I have updated my tracker projecting current ranking qualification status to show results of all events up to 30th September (including Junior World Champs)
     

     
    Individually,  were the biggest gainers over the course of the last month, with the latest projection showing them picking up 5 additional quotas with both  and  gaining 3. 
     
     and  were the biggest losers, dropping 4 and 3 quotas respectively. In both cases, the drop in quotas was predominantly due to their men dropping back in the overall rankings.
     
    As a result of their men falling back, both  and  are no longer projected to qualify for the team event. They are replaced by    and 
     
    With the World Champs and the Abu Dhabi Grand Slam taking place next month, we could potentially see some big changes in the rankings in the next few weeks. 
     
  18. Like
    Rafa Maciel got a reaction from maestro in Rowing FISA World Championships 2022   
    You are right that many of the boats were unlucky - none more so than the Lightweight Double who missed the bronze by 1/100th of a second - but the reason many regard it as a disaster is as much to do with what was happening off the water as it was to do with the results.
     
    It was clearly not a happy, cohesive team going into Tokyo. We had struggled throughout the Olympic cycle, eventually qualified the smallest number of boats for at least 20 years, the head coach unexpectedly quit, there were suggestions of bullying within the team and then there was the whole 'smug' row after the men's four. 
     
    Unfortunately success in British sport is, in many ways, measured purely in terms of the number of gold medals won, and a silver, a bronze and a hatful of unlucky fourth places isn't much of a return on a 25mln pound investment. 
  19. Like
    Rafa Maciel got a reaction from maestro in Rowing FISA World Championships 2022   
    This week’s World Championships definitely represents a big step forward for Team GB compared to the last few years and the disastrous Tokyo regatta. Given our relative strength in the sport, I was surprised to discover that this is the first time since 2016 that GB have won a gold medal at the rowing world championships outside of the para-rowing classes.
     
    Using this week to project Olympic qualification, Britain would have qualified in all 11 of the boat categories that they entered – an improvement of 2 compared to the WCs of 2019.
     
    The biggest step forward arguably came from Ukraine who would qualify 5 boats – compared to 0 in 2019 – which is no mean feat given everything that is going on in the country.
     
    New Zealand and Italy haven’t had a vintage year with New Zealand qualifying in just 4 events compared to 9 previously and Italy dropping from 8 to 4.
     
    Good to see Japan making progress post Tokyo. Ryuta Arakawa’s victory in the B-Final would be an Olympic qualifying spot and would possibly be the first time that a non-Chinese boat had qualified through the World Championships route.
     

     
    Still a year to go before the qualification regatta, but I think Team GB will be very happy with their performances this year and if they can get a good winter of injury free training, they could be on track for largest rowing squad since London 2012.
  20. Thanks
    Rafa Maciel got a reaction from Makedonas in Rowing FISA World Championships 2022   
    This week’s World Championships definitely represents a big step forward for Team GB compared to the last few years and the disastrous Tokyo regatta. Given our relative strength in the sport, I was surprised to discover that this is the first time since 2016 that GB have won a gold medal at the rowing world championships outside of the para-rowing classes.
     
    Using this week to project Olympic qualification, Britain would have qualified in all 11 of the boat categories that they entered – an improvement of 2 compared to the WCs of 2019.
     
    The biggest step forward arguably came from Ukraine who would qualify 5 boats – compared to 0 in 2019 – which is no mean feat given everything that is going on in the country.
     
    New Zealand and Italy haven’t had a vintage year with New Zealand qualifying in just 4 events compared to 9 previously and Italy dropping from 8 to 4.
     
    Good to see Japan making progress post Tokyo. Ryuta Arakawa’s victory in the B-Final would be an Olympic qualifying spot and would possibly be the first time that a non-Chinese boat had qualified through the World Championships route.
     

     
    Still a year to go before the qualification regatta, but I think Team GB will be very happy with their performances this year and if they can get a good winter of injury free training, they could be on track for largest rowing squad since London 2012.
  21. Like
    Rafa Maciel got a reaction from rybak in Rowing FISA World Championships 2022   
    This week’s World Championships definitely represents a big step forward for Team GB compared to the last few years and the disastrous Tokyo regatta. Given our relative strength in the sport, I was surprised to discover that this is the first time since 2016 that GB have won a gold medal at the rowing world championships outside of the para-rowing classes.
     
    Using this week to project Olympic qualification, Britain would have qualified in all 11 of the boat categories that they entered – an improvement of 2 compared to the WCs of 2019.
     
    The biggest step forward arguably came from Ukraine who would qualify 5 boats – compared to 0 in 2019 – which is no mean feat given everything that is going on in the country.
     
    New Zealand and Italy haven’t had a vintage year with New Zealand qualifying in just 4 events compared to 9 previously and Italy dropping from 8 to 4.
     
    Good to see Japan making progress post Tokyo. Ryuta Arakawa’s victory in the B-Final would be an Olympic qualifying spot and would possibly be the first time that a non-Chinese boat had qualified through the World Championships route.
     

     
    Still a year to go before the qualification regatta, but I think Team GB will be very happy with their performances this year and if they can get a good winter of injury free training, they could be on track for largest rowing squad since London 2012.
  22. Thanks
    Rafa Maciel got a reaction from Dennis in Rowing FISA World Championships 2022   
    This week’s World Championships definitely represents a big step forward for Team GB compared to the last few years and the disastrous Tokyo regatta. Given our relative strength in the sport, I was surprised to discover that this is the first time since 2016 that GB have won a gold medal at the rowing world championships outside of the para-rowing classes.
     
    Using this week to project Olympic qualification, Britain would have qualified in all 11 of the boat categories that they entered – an improvement of 2 compared to the WCs of 2019.
     
    The biggest step forward arguably came from Ukraine who would qualify 5 boats – compared to 0 in 2019 – which is no mean feat given everything that is going on in the country.
     
    New Zealand and Italy haven’t had a vintage year with New Zealand qualifying in just 4 events compared to 9 previously and Italy dropping from 8 to 4.
     
    Good to see Japan making progress post Tokyo. Ryuta Arakawa’s victory in the B-Final would be an Olympic qualifying spot and would possibly be the first time that a non-Chinese boat had qualified through the World Championships route.
     

     
    Still a year to go before the qualification regatta, but I think Team GB will be very happy with their performances this year and if they can get a good winter of injury free training, they could be on track for largest rowing squad since London 2012.
  23. Like
    Rafa Maciel got a reaction from rafalgorka in Rowing FISA World Championships 2022   
    This week’s World Championships definitely represents a big step forward for Team GB compared to the last few years and the disastrous Tokyo regatta. Given our relative strength in the sport, I was surprised to discover that this is the first time since 2016 that GB have won a gold medal at the rowing world championships outside of the para-rowing classes.
     
    Using this week to project Olympic qualification, Britain would have qualified in all 11 of the boat categories that they entered – an improvement of 2 compared to the WCs of 2019.
     
    The biggest step forward arguably came from Ukraine who would qualify 5 boats – compared to 0 in 2019 – which is no mean feat given everything that is going on in the country.
     
    New Zealand and Italy haven’t had a vintage year with New Zealand qualifying in just 4 events compared to 9 previously and Italy dropping from 8 to 4.
     
    Good to see Japan making progress post Tokyo. Ryuta Arakawa’s victory in the B-Final would be an Olympic qualifying spot and would possibly be the first time that a non-Chinese boat had qualified through the World Championships route.
     

     
    Still a year to go before the qualification regatta, but I think Team GB will be very happy with their performances this year and if they can get a good winter of injury free training, they could be on track for largest rowing squad since London 2012.
  24. Like
    Rafa Maciel got a reaction from Josh in Judo Qualification to Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024   
    The qualification window for Judo opened at the end of June and so far there have been 8 qualifying events staged - 2 Grand Slams, 1 Grand Prix and 5 Continental Opens. Annoyingly, the IJF haven't got their act together for the last couple of months and they haven't been publishing the Olympic Ranking list on their website. 
     
    I've gone through the results from 7 of the 8 qualifying events - I haven't included the results of Tahiti Oceania Open - to generate my own tracker of current qualification position.
     

     
    Couple of caveats:
    1) This only covers the top 17 in the rankings (and France as hosts) - it doesn't take into account the continental quotas
     
    2) Russia are included in the list despite the fact that they haven't been competing on the tour. At the moment, the rankings are heavily driven by the results from the Grand Slams and Russia were included in and performed pretty well at the Ulaanbaatar GS. I guess with the World Champs taking place in Uzbekistan, there is a possibility that Russian judokas may be there too. 
     
    In terms of the team event, at the moment, by my reckoning the following nations would be qualified:
     
             
     
    It's still early days and a lot will change will change before the end of the qualification window
  25. Like
    Rafa Maciel got a reaction from rybak in Judo Qualification to Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024   
    The qualification window for Judo opened at the end of June and so far there have been 8 qualifying events staged - 2 Grand Slams, 1 Grand Prix and 5 Continental Opens. Annoyingly, the IJF haven't got their act together for the last couple of months and they haven't been publishing the Olympic Ranking list on their website. 
     
    I've gone through the results from 7 of the 8 qualifying events - I haven't included the results of Tahiti Oceania Open - to generate my own tracker of current qualification position.
     

     
    Couple of caveats:
    1) This only covers the top 17 in the rankings (and France as hosts) - it doesn't take into account the continental quotas
     
    2) Russia are included in the list despite the fact that they haven't been competing on the tour. At the moment, the rankings are heavily driven by the results from the Grand Slams and Russia were included in and performed pretty well at the Ulaanbaatar GS. I guess with the World Champs taking place in Uzbekistan, there is a possibility that Russian judokas may be there too. 
     
    In terms of the team event, at the moment, by my reckoning the following nations would be qualified:
     
             
     
    It's still early days and a lot will change will change before the end of the qualification window
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