Rowing WR World Championships 2023 Road to Paris 2024

[Rafa Maciel 1,259]

1 hour ago, Ogreman said:

So I did this exercise of trying to rank every boat's form coming into these champs. I did this last year for myself and well it wasn't particularly accurate in terms of trying to predict results but hopefully offers some perspective on where boats might finish and expectations for number of Olympic qualifiers. > means I think a given boat will finish higher than where I have ranked them and < means I think it will actually finish lower than where it is ranked here.        

 

Anyone know why Japan withdrew all their boats except for their single scullers. I assume it is Asian games related but the likes of their W4- would have at least been competitive here

You seem very bullish on Irish prospects - looks like you expect all of the Irish boats to qualify except for both of the Fours. I am intrigued how you have assessed the form for those crews which have not raced this season across the World Cup or European champs? In the women's pair for example you have the Irish boat finishing in 4th but they haven't raced together this season and the two previous Irish boats that have been fielded recorded a 6th in World Cup II and 7th at Euro Champs. 

[Ogreman 205]

8 hours ago, Rafa Maciel said:

You seem very bullish on Irish prospects - looks like you expect all of the Irish boats to qualify except for both of the Fours. I am intrigued how you have assessed the form for those crews which have not raced this season across the World Cup or European champs? In the women's pair for example you have the Irish boat finishing in 4th but they haven't raced together this season and the two previous Irish boats that have been fielded recorded a 6th in World Cup II and 7th at Euro Champs. 

Ye I'm bullish on the Irish prospects. Its the mens four and the mens quad i dont expect to qualify. I do expect the womens four to qualify.

 

Look there are loads of boats from lots of different countries and different boat classes that havent raced world cups or Europeans. I just ranked them based on whatever results they do have and the if boats have new combinations then just judge on whether the new combination is stronger or weaker than the previous. It gets pretty subjective when you start taking the under 23 boats or even junior boats into things but I tried to be fairly consistent with those and there is normally some reference point.

This boat beat that boat which finished in such and such place at a world cup but now have a better athlete in the boat so should be faster. Like this is not an objective form guide, my opinion does definitely weigh in a lot.

 

Anyway, the new Irish women's pair is our best two sweep athletes so ye I have them ranked higher than where our previous boats finished.

So, I just looked back at the one I did last year and on that occasion I appear to have overestimated 4 Irish boats, underestimated 3 and hit 2 bang on so I don't think I have a bias towards Irish boats. If anything given my knowledge of them they might be the most accurately ranked of any country's.

Edited September 3, 2023 by Ogreman

[Ogreman 205]

Olympic qualifiers according to my rankings

Netherlands	10
Romania	10
Australia	9
Great Britain	9
USA	9
Ireland	7
Greece	5
New Zealand	5
China	4
France	4
Germany	4
Italy	4
Spain	4
Switzerland	4
Denmark	3
Lithuania	3
Belgium	2
Croatia	2
Poland	2
Serbia	2
Austria	1
AIN (BELARUS)	1
Bulgaria	1
Canada	1
Chile	1
Czechia	1
Estonia	1
Japan	1
Moldova	1
Norway	1
Ukraine	1
Uzbekistan	1
114	114

So I probably should have checked  this before I posted the form/my mostly useless opinion guide.

Anyway I apparently have managed to rank 9 American boats in qualifying positions which seems a bit on the optimistic side for the quality of that squad.(I managed to do that while being kinda harsh on their men's eight and women's quad). Maybe they are that good though and my perception is warped by their lack of medal contenders. (I just checked how many they would have qualified if last year had been the qualifiers and apparently they would have had 8 boats qualified which is way better than my memory of their one medal performance thought.)

On the other end of the scale I have Canada only qualifying one boat. They have a couple of close calls though so they probably will get a second but even then that is still bad. Other than that it seems a fairly reasonable projection although given Germany's last couple of years four boats qualified would be pretty positive.

If these pan out to be remotely accurate Ireland, Greece, Spain, Switzerland and honestly Serbia would be set for a very good champs. Not so much for Italy, the aforementioned Canada, China and Poland.

[EselTheDonkey 686]

11 hours ago, Ogreman said:

Olympic qualifiers according to my rankings

Netherlands	10
Romania	10
Australia	9
Great Britain	9
USA	9
Ireland	7
Greece	5
New Zealand	5
China	4
France	4
Germany	4
Italy	4
Spain	4
Switzerland	4
Denmark	3
Lithuania	3
Belgium	2
Croatia	2
Poland	2
Serbia	2
Austria	1
AIN (BELARUS)	1
Bulgaria	1
Canada	1
Chile	1
Czechia	1
Estonia	1
Japan	1
Moldova	1
Norway	1
Ukraine	1
Uzbekistan	1
114	114

So I probably should have checked  this before I posted the form/my mostly useless opinion guide.

Anyway I apparently have managed to rank 9 American boats in qualifying positions which seems a bit on the optimistic side for the quality of that squad.(I managed to do that while being kinda harsh on their men's eight and women's quad). Maybe they are that good though and my perception is warped by their lack of medal contenders. (I just checked how many they would have qualified if last year had been the qualifiers and apparently they would have had 8 boats qualified which is way better than my memory of their one medal performance thought.)

On the other end of the scale I have Canada only qualifying one boat. They have a couple of close calls though so they probably will get a second but even then that is still bad. Other than that it seems a fairly reasonable projection although given Germany's last couple of years four boats qualified would be pretty positive.

If these pan out to be remotely accurate Ireland, Greece, Spain, Switzerland and honestly Serbia would be set for a very good champs. Not so much for Italy, the aforementioned Canada, China and Poland.

In which disciplines do you have the 4 German quotas?

[Ogreman 205]

3 minutes ago, EselTheDonkey said:

In which disciplines do you have the 4 German quotas?

They are all on  the previous page but both singles, the women's quad and I have them in the men's eight but I'm not sure about that one.

[EselTheDonkey 686]

Thanks! 

[Benolympique 1,644]

11 hours ago, Ogreman said:

Olympic qualifiers according to my rankings

Netherlands	10
Romania	10
Australia	9
Great Britain	9
USA	9
Ireland	7
Greece	5
New Zealand	5
China	4
France	4
Germany	4
Italy	4
Spain	4
Switzerland	4
Denmark	3
Lithuania	3
Belgium	2
Croatia	2
Poland	2
Serbia	2
Austria	1
AIN (BELARUS)	1
Bulgaria	1
Canada	1
Chile	1
Czechia	1
Estonia	1
Japan	1
Moldova	1
Norway	1
Ukraine	1
Uzbekistan	1
114	114

So I probably should have checked  this before I posted the form/my mostly useless opinion guide.

Anyway I apparently have managed to rank 9 American boats in qualifying positions which seems a bit on the optimistic side for the quality of that squad.(I managed to do that while being kinda harsh on their men's eight and women's quad). Maybe they are that good though and my perception is warped by their lack of medal contenders. (I just checked how many they would have qualified if last year had been the qualifiers and apparently they would have had 8 boats qualified which is way better than my memory of their one medal performance thought.)

On the other end of the scale I have Canada only qualifying one boat. They have a couple of close calls though so they probably will get a second but even then that is still bad. Other than that it seems a fairly reasonable projection although given Germany's last couple of years four boats qualified would be pretty positive.

If these pan out to be remotely accurate Ireland, Greece, Spain, Switzerland and honestly Serbia would be set for a very good champs. Not so much for Italy, the aforementioned Canada, China and Poland.

I had bet 8 boats qualified for France, I may be too optimistic

[zob79 121]

2 hours ago, Benolympique said:

I had bet 8 boats qualified for France, I may be too optimistic

Where did you find that bet?

You can answer me in private, if we're not allowed to quote name of bookies here

[Werloc 3,127]

Fairly solid start for Lithuania, all four boats are through to the quarterfinals. 

[Benolympique 1,644]

59 minutes ago, zob79 said:

Where did you find that bet?

You can answer me in private, if we're not allowed to quote name of bookies here

myself ! Mens: LM2x, M2x, M2-, W4- Women's: LW2x, W2x, W4x, W2-

Edited September 3, 2023 by Benolympique