The first point absolutely matters, because it has been a problem for Lithuanian biathlon during our entire existence, with Diana and Tomas struggling with the very same problems when they were at their peaks.
Dombrovski and other Lithuanian athletes struggle with this as well every single year, getting significantly worse with every ongoing race, so what if they're not amongst the leaders, the fact that Lithuanian biathletes have one of the quickest declines in form, usually being at full capacity for one world cup stage and then on survival mode till the next longer break, it is a very prominent problem.
I'm not sure if I can remain positive about Dombrovski, if he is not threatening point positions with a single miss in a year with no Russians and Belarusians.
As for Pokljuka, the shooting won't help, the track is probably the worst for Strolia overall. All of his worst ski speed performances come from Pokljuka. He'll probably be in the 30s with one miss just like here.