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Winter Olympic Games 2022 Early Qualification Predictions



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3 hours ago, heywoodu said:

Any reason for that? I've heard German Madrazo's name quite often in the past few years, part of the infamous Project Bogota to qualify for Pyeongchang, did he grow his participation into some attention for the sport? :p 

Well, he received a lot of publicity after he competed at Pyeongchang, and some people started training, aiming to compete at the Olympics. Between late 2018 - early2020, between 3-5 skiers, a woman included, managed to attend cross country competitions in USA, Canada and even Finland, and this year finally one of them finished with less than 300 points in one of them.

According to Chef of Mission, they will support cross country skiers all through the qualification period (as well as the alpine skiers and our skaters), so they can obtain a quota.

I know Mexico is far from expecting a medal at the Winter Games in the next 20 years at least, but I think establishing a small group of athletes capable of fighting for a spot is worth it.

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Here's my simulation of the number of athletes for each country. Note I did not take into account injuries (or people missing out due to COVID) and potential athletes that will reactivate themselves d

@phelps THANK YOU!   Maybe we can try day-by-day Beijing predictions - what would we watch on every day, what are the most interesting events for us,  what are our medal predictions, how our

Well, he received a lot of publicity after he competed at Pyeongchang, and some people started training, aiming to compete at the Olympics. Between late 2018 - early2020, between 3-5 skiers, a woman i

2 hours ago, mrv86 said:

I know Mexico is far from expecting a medal at the Winter Games in the next 20 years at least, but I think establishing a small group of athletes capable of fighting for a spot is worth it.

As arguably the world's leading non-Brazilian follower of Brazilian women's cross-country, I could not agree more with this :d 

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Here's my simulation of the number of athletes for each country. Note I did not take into account injuries (or people missing out due to COVID) and potential athletes that will reactivate themselves during the 2021-2022 season (since I have no information on them). In total 91 nations will participate. Let's see how far off I am in 2022.

 

:ALB Albania - 1

:ASA American Samoa - 1

:AND Andorra - 5

:ARG Argentina - 9

:ARM Armenia - 4

:AUS Australia - 34

:AUT Austria - 110

:AZE Azerbaijan - 3

:BLR Belarus - 38

:BEL Belgium - 18

:BOL Bolivia - 2

:BIH Bosnia and Herzegovina - 5

:BRA Brazil - 8

:BUL Bulgaria - 15

:CAN Canada - 206

:CAY Cayman Islands - 1

:CHI Chile - 3

:CHN China - 167

:COL Colombia - 1

:CRO Croatia - 9

:CYP Cyprus - 1

:CZE Czech Republic - 114

:DEN Denmark - 3

:ECU Ecuador - 2

:EST Estonia - 26

:FIN Finland - 98

:FRA France - 97

:GEO Georgia - 7

:GER Germany - 181

:GBR Great Britain - 62

:GRE Greece - 5

:HAI Haiti - 1

:HKG Hong Kong - 3

:HUN Hungary - 13

:ISL Iceland - 5

:IRI Iran - 4

:IRL Ireland - 4

:ISR Israel - 4

:ITA Italy - 129

:JAM Jamaica - 1

:JPN Japan - 134

:KAZ Kazakhstan - 31

:KEN Kenya - 1

:KOS Kosovo - 1

:KGZ Kyrgyzstan - 1

:LAT Latvia - 61

:LBN Lebanon - 3

:LIE Liechtenstein - 6

:LTU Lithuania - 12

:LUX Luxembourg

:MAD Madagascar - 1

:MAS Malaysia - 2

:MLT Malta - 1

:MEX Mexico - 2

:MDA Moldova - 5

:MON Monaco - 6

:MGL Mongolia - 2

:MNE Montenegro - 3

:MAR Morocco - 1

:NED Netherlands - 42

:NZL New Zealand - 16

:NGR Nigeria - 2

:PRK North Korea - 2

:MKD North Macedonia - 3

:NOR Norway - 115

:PAK Pakistan - 2

:PER Peru - 2

:PHI Philippines - 1

:POL Poland - 51

:POR Portugal - 2

:PUR Puerto Rico - 1

:ROU Romania - 21

:RUS Russia - 209

:SMR San Marino - 1

:SRB Serbia - 5

:SVK Slovakia - 48

:SLO Slovenia - 45

:RSA South Africa - 1

:KOR South Korea - 69

:ESP Spain - 13

:SWE Sweden - 117

:SUI Switzerland - 178

:TPE Chinese Taipei - 3

:THA Thailand - 4

:TLS Timor-Leste - 1

:TTO Trinidad and Tobago - 1

:TUR Turkey - 6

:UKR Ukraine - 41

:USA United States - 219

:UZB Uzbekistan - 1

:ISV Virgin Islands - 1

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46 minutes ago, JoshMartini007 said:

Here's my simulation of the number of athletes for each country. Note I did not take into account injuries (or people missing out due to COVID) and potential athletes that will reactivate themselves during the 2021-2022 season (since I have no information on them). In total 91 nations will participate. Let's see how far off I am in 2022.

 

 

 

Great job. Thank you!!!

 

Could you please share some details - how did you make this simulation? E.g. what 51 people (who and in which sports/events will represent POL?) ???

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I am not a big fan of winter sports, but I will try...

 

 

:BRA Brazil

Team Size Prediction for Winter Olympic Games 2022 Beijing

 

Ski Sports

 

Alpine Skiing  (2) - Usually we have at least one man and one woman competing. There is a guy with some potential.

 

Cross Country Skiing  (2) - Also, usually a man and a woman.

 

Ski Jumping  (0) - No way

Nordic Combined  (0) - No way

Freestyle Skiing  (0) - we had two athletes training for this sport for Sochi, but a terrible accident happened with one of them.

 

I think the other athlete participated at 2018, but I am not sure.

 

I dont know how it is now.

 

Snowboarding  (1) - Isabel retired, we have a young guy on cross. I dont know if he will be able to qualify for this Olympic.

 

Biathlon  (0) - I am not sure, but I believe that we dont have big chances here.

 

 

Skating Sports

 

Speed Skating  (0) - I dont know any athlete

Short Track Speed Skating  (0) - I dont know any athlete

Figure Skating  (1) - Isadora Willians probably will qualify again.

 

 

Sleigh Sports

 

Luge  (0) - I dont know any athlete

Skeleton  (1) - Nicole is in a great performance.

Bobsleigh  (5) - 1 women's monobob and I am expecting 4-man

 

 

Team Sports

 

Curling  (0) - we love curling here, but no way hahaha

Ice Hockey  (0) - we dont even qualify in Field Hockey hahaha

 

 

 

Total Optimistic Prediction  -  (12)

Total Pessimistic Prediction  - (5)

 

Total Realistic Prediction  -  (7)

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1 hour ago, rafalgorka said:

Great job. Thank you!!!

 

Could you please share some details - how did you make this simulation? E.g. what 51 people (who and in which sports/events will represent POL?) ???

I mostly looked at recent results and compared it to the sport's qualification system. I didn't keep tabs on specific people since for some sports it's done through nation rankings (and the project was ambitious enough already). I also assumed every nation will accept all their quotas (which likely won't happen).

 

For Poland the sport breakdown is...

 

Alpine Skiing - 3

Biathlon - 8

Cross-country Skiing - 7

Figure Skating - 2

Luge - 4

Nordic Combined - 4

Short Track Speed Skating - 4

Ski Jumping - 7

Snowboarding - 3

Speed Skating - 9

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1 hour ago, JoshMartini007 said:

I mostly looked at recent results and compared it to the sport's qualification system. I didn't keep tabs on specific people since for some sports it's done through nation rankings (and the project was ambitious enough already). I also assumed every nation will accept all their quotas (which likely won't happen).

 

For Poland the sport breakdown is...

 

Alpine Skiing - 3

Biathlon - 8

Cross-country Skiing - 7

Figure Skating - 2

Luge - 4

Nordic Combined - 4

Short Track Speed Skating - 4

Ski Jumping - 7

Snowboarding - 3

Speed Skating - 9

No chance. I will be happy if just 1 athlete will qualify, most of our guys retired two seasons ago.

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43 minutes ago, rybak said:

No chance. I will be happy if just 1 athlete will qualify, most of our guys retired two seasons ago.

In the qualification document, they wanted 10 nations to participate in the team event (they reserved quotas to ensure that) so Poland benefited from that. It's either them or Estonia, the depth in Nordic Combined is very shallow.

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4 hours ago, JoshMartini007 said:

Here's my simulation of the number of athletes for each country. Note I did not take into account injuries (or people missing out due to COVID) and potential athletes that will reactivate themselves during the 2021-2022 season (since I have no information on them). In total 91 nations will participate. Let's see how far off I am in 2022.

 

:AZE Azerbaijan - 3

:CAY Cayman Islands - 1

:COL Colombia - 1

:ECU Ecuador - 2

:JAM Jamaica - 1

:MAD Madagascar - 1

:MAS Malaysia - 2

:MDA Moldova - 5

:MON Monaco - 6

:NGR Nigeria - 2

 

Great job!

Can you elaborate on these specific countries please, as in which sports?

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