My 2 cent analyses:
Currently -> China 36 - 31 US
Favorites - China -> 1x Diving, 1x Canoeing W C2 / US -> 2x Basketball, 2x 4x400 Relays, 1x W water polo = China 38 - 36 US
Toss Up - 2x Boxing for both (they've got 2 finals and probably win only 1) / US -> 1x Golf, 1x Volleyball = China 39 - 39 US
Underdogs - China -> 1x wrestling / US -> 1x baseball, 1x wrestling
*Karate and Modern Pentathlon are too unpredictable for me.
The best that China could rely on is:
- Brazil winning the volleyball gold
- US losing both boxing finals (with China winning 1)
- China upsetting Japan in wrestling (if Snyder also wins against Sadulaev)
My prognosis at this point are US 55% - 45% China
As for the GB - Russia battle for fourth, i think there is no battle Russia have 2x Rhythmic, 1x Artistic Gymnastics, 2x Volleyball finals, 1x Handball + Sadulaev + Lasitskene. Heck, if Japan had 2 Golds few, i would say Russia can make an epic final climb for third.