Oldira

I was doing some calculating a few months back and it became obvious the men's double badminton pair never really had a shot at qualifying even though they were showing in a qualifying spot. The reason being that many pairs from other nations had not yet competed in enough events to gather points and it was clear that over the course of the next few months they would move clearly ahead.

I am a bit worried too about our rowing and boxing teams, neither seem to be hitting the Olympic year in ideal form. For rowing, I am sure just like last year they will improve greatly in the coming months, but I was secretly hoping we could see some major breakthroughs and push for another gold from another crew outside of the lightweight men's double. It can all still come together of course, I think as fans we are just looking for those signs that this summer will be a good one.
The boxing team, since Rio 2016 I go into each Olympics expecting absolutely nothing and anything is a bonus. But still the start to this year has not been good at all. Anything can still happen in Paris though, good or bad but it's unlikely we will get a haul of boxing medals.

She scraped by in the earlier round too but Serbia are doing remarkably well at their home event. That might be a factor 
 
 

So far today in the rowing finals;
 
Keogh/Murtagh silver behind the Dutch. They looked OK so probably still in the top 4/5 but without Australia and Romania we won’t know if they’re likely to contend for a medal yet
 
Doyle/Lynch went off very slow but had an insane finish to grab bronze. They’ll need to be more consistent to challenge in Paris
 
The women’s four were miles off two GB boats and finished in 4th as the Dutch eased away. Still a good regatta for them though and I’m more confident they’ll qualify now 
 
Timoney/Corrigan win the B final and let’s hope the illness/injury is behind them 

Delighted to see Jack Woolley qualify today 

It doesn't count for swim ireland, but it does for IOC. And its Paris 2024 who give out the quotas. If Ireland reject one, that's fine, but that's a case of handing a place back, not having failed to win it.

FWIW they have said that they’ll accept any invitations for Paris (unlike Tokyo when they said they wouldn’t but ended up having to to fill the relay team) 
 
Theres space for Ferguson and McCusker as not a huge amount of qualifiers world wide 

In that case I hope Bermuda never win a gold medal again.

There’ll be some crazy scenes when he wins the 1,500m by 3 seconds later in the week 

Agreed that swimming doesn't need more events and also there should be less relay quotas, but i would rather cut the 4 x 200 free relay, since it is pretty much always super uncompetitive.

But the lads already there had to win a number of fights to get there (maybe not the Australians)

Then the lads that lose in the QF at QF1 may have another 4 fights at the Second qualifier

I'd say is still too early, she is still has some possibility.

Great performances by both teams at the Perth 7s.
 
Hopefully can develop some consistency over the season and translate it into a good performance in Paris!
 
Definite medal contenders now in both - the draw will be vital.

Ireland is in the Pro League so will have matches against the top nations which should help with Olympic preparation. What an achievement for this team to make it to the Olympics, they’ve had to completely rebuild in recent years and it all came good at the right time  

Have to admit I am flabbergasted at the 66kg decision but the coaches know a hell of a lot more than me.

I think it’s pretty certain we will win a quota in Dressage. The Brazil team failed to make the MER and there was no qualifier from Group so there are two composites (Finland and Portugal) meaning we get the individual quota that Finland had. You can move Dressage to a S.
Excellent article btw.

I think it’s pretty certain we will win a quota in Dressage. The Brazil team failed to make the MER and there was no qualifier from Group so there are two composites (Finland and Portugal) meaning we get the individual quota that Finland had. You can move Dressage to a S.
Excellent article btw.

Apologies you are right - each Nations Cup event is worth a maximum of 1600. I was looking at the column for continental champs which are only worth 1200. 

So... Ireland is 48 ahead of 8th place at the moment but I think the medal race splits from the "last race" for the others. Meaning the best points total any of the non-top 10 can finish is 11
 
Meaning  and  have qualified with  already in the medal race and through to Paris too

I believe you will be very close with the Ireland numbers. We should get 2/3 more in Boxing and probably no divers. Otherwise you are spot on.

I believe you will be very close with the Ireland numbers. We should get 2/3 more in Boxing and probably no divers. Otherwise you are spot on.

I believe you will be very close with the Ireland numbers. We should get 2/3 more in Boxing and probably no divers. Otherwise you are spot on.

So I decided to try and figure out who would be the likely qualifiers at the world qualifying tournaments and well many many hours, lots of procrastinating and a contender for the ugliest excel file ever created later I ended up ranking every boxer who competed at the continental qualifying tournaments and doing well some other stuff too.
 
Obviously these are just my rankings and well I will fully admit aren't especially accurate even if I did spend a significant amount of time thinking about every position but they should at least be the most accurate boxing rankings out there.
 
Just quickly in terms of boxing rankings that already exist the IBA have a ranking which is based on points system based on how far you get into their competitions. Even in a normal cycle where everyone was competing in the IBA's competitions they would still be woefully inaccurate because of the way they are calculated. They are also self perpetuating given that these rankings determine seedings which then effect how far into competitions boxers get. Anyway they are completely useless.
 
Then boxrec has a ranking system which is accurate enough and as I understand based on the quality of your opponents you beat/ lose to. It does fall into weird pitfalls  where sometimes it overrates/ underrates one group of boxers and then when they keep beating/ losing to eachother and it gets stuck in a cycle and ends up with some weird rankings as a result. Also if you keep losing to good boxers without fighting bad ones or only beat bad boxers without ever fighting good ones it can end up with weird rankings. Finally while boxrec results database is very good it is still missing a lot of competitions particularly outside of Europe.
 
And then finally Taylor O'Higgins (worth a follow on twitter) used to do an amateur boxing rankings on the Fight site and he is a boxing coach so obviously knows a lot more about the actual boxing side of things than I would. He has mentioned doing the rankings again a couple of times on twitter but as far as I know hasn't posted them.
 
So ye hopefully these fill a bit of a hole and help with some of the qualifying/ medal projections on this site where some of the boxing related projections have been a bit hit and miss.
 
I'll only post the top 50 boxers in each weightclass and the top 60 or so in my country rankings but I have linked an Excel file with the complete rankings of every weight class and ranked every country plus the same stuff but broken down by continental if anyone wants to look at them.
 
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1RN05tE5ipfkwHf_7c4vNLpV89zaHfMWw/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=113545580127855067750&rtpof=true&sd=true
 
(To be clear this is not the ugly Excel file I referred to earlier)

Men’s rugby team ended the year as a disappointment though. The rowers should have won. Criminally underrated 

nothing, it's not about him. wish him best of luck in European Qualifiers
 
but he just didn't deserve to qualify by virtue of his 6th place in the WR, the 6th place didn't belong to him in a fair world. or any kind of world.
 
ps: in case you don't know what I'm talking about, check the Taekwondo Olympic Qualification thread.