dcmdtruefan

3 hours ago, Ogreman said:

I have been watching the NFL since 2016. For context those are my entire years as a teenager. Today is the first time that I have witnessed the broncos beating the chiefs. This win has been a long time coming.

Chiefs beating Broncos for seven consecutive years coincides with Peyton Manning's retirement after winning the Super Bowl for Denver in February 2016 and Mahomes's ascent to the starting role in 2018 with Alex Smith being the stopping gap.  

5 hours ago, LuizGuilherme said:

This brazilian team sucks, hope they can improve without the asshole Neymar.

I wonder how much Ancelotti can improve Brazil he will take over the coaching reigns after the end of this football season. I'm not sure Neymar is the only issue they they have. 

As someone of Thai heritage who was born and lives in the US who has been following Thai sports, I think I can give a good summary of what hopes they have in Paris 2024. I think if you have to analyze Thailand's medal aspirations for next year's Olympics, you have to put them in 3 tiers: 1. Does that are gold medal contenders, 2. Does who are minor medal contenders, but can also be darkhorse gold medal contenders, and 3). Those who have the ability to be in the top 8 of their event and have an outsider's chance of a medal:

Tier 1: Gold medal contenders

1. Panipak Wongpattanakit (Women's Taekwondo, -49 kg): I think it's obvious what she is top of the list. In Thailand's history, there's no amateur athlete who is as consistent as her. Thus, she is still the best gold medal that they have. However, she's at best a slight favorite in her category as she has been beaten by Turkish and Mexican athletes in the two recent world championships, although she's still very unbeatable in the world grand prix  competitions. The biggest challenge to her defense of 2020 championship is not necessary the quality of her opponents, but maintaining her physical fitness until July 2024 as she has been dealing with some nagging knee injuries for the past year. According to her, she opted out from a knee surgery until the end of Paris 2024 because it will take her several months to recover and she wouldn't be able to be ready for the Olympics. 

2. Kunlavut Vitidsarn (Badminton, Men's Singles): The main reasons why Vitidsarn is number 2 in this list are 1). He is the regining world champion and 2). His talent and technical ability is in the elite tier in his event. However, those who may hope for him to be successful next summer must be cautious in placing their hopes in him as he struggles to maintain his physical fitness to an optimal level. Since winning the world championship in August, Vitidsarn's performance have been sub-par. He was eliminated in the round of 16 in the recent Asian Games and has been eliminated in the perliminary round of his two recent world tour competitions in Finland and Denmark. While some can point out to the grueling international tournament schedule as the key reason of his physical struggles, IMO, I believe most of this has to do with his playing style, which is defensive and counter-attack oriented that causes to play most of his matches for more than an hour in average as the lack of effectiveness of the physical/sports science program at his club, Banthongyord, as Thailand is lacking behind countries such China, Japan and Korea in that area. I also think his coaches have not been able to find a tactic to counter the schemes that others have used in dealing with Vitidsarn's strengths and weaknesses. 

In an ideal world, I would like Vitidsarn to have the ability to hire a foreign fitness coach as well as a badminton coach from a well-renowned country in the sport to help him as I don't think the Thai mindset and training/tactical methodologies are good enough to push him any further. But since his camp will unlikely to admit such faults, the best that I could hope is for him to maintain peak physical condition come Paris 2024. Due to the very competitive scene in the men's singles, I could see Vitidsarn's performance in Paris having a hige variance from being anywhere from winning the gold medal, to failing to be in the podium or even being knocked out in the permliminary rounds. The fact that Thailand has never won a medal in the sport would be added pressure for him to win a medal, and Thais usually don't do well in dealing with pressure. 

Tier 2-Minor medal contenders, darkhorse gold medal contenders:

1. Weightlifting- (Men's 73 kg-Weeraphon Wichuma, Women's +81 kg-Duangsakorn Chaidee, Men's 61 kg-Theerapong Silachai, Women's 49 kg-Thanyathorn Sukcharoen).

The first two in this list can be gold medal contenders and are almost certain to win a medal next year. Weeraphon is this year's world champion and is number two in the Olympic qualification list. He lost to the number one guy in the list from Indonesia at the Asian Games by about 8 kilograms. There is enough time from now until Paris to catch up with the Indonesian, but to win the gold medal, he has to work on his clean and jerk lift in order to win gold. Duangsakorn's performance in 2022 would have been good enough to guarantee a bronze next year. But it seems like she hasn't done well this year for not lifting more than 280+ kg. If she can go 290 kg without doping, then she can at least win the silver. The other two are good enough to win a bronze, but nothing more than that as they don't the ability to beat the Chinese lifters in their weight category.

2. Boxing - (Men's 51 kg-Thitisarn Panmot, Women's 54 kg-Jutamas Jitpong, Women's 50 kg-Chutamat Raksat, Women's 66 kg- Janjaem Suwannaphaeng)

While there is no Thai boxer who I consider to be a gold medal contender, a several of them have proven to be worthy of medal contention for their perfomances at they year's Worlds and Asian Games. Among these four in the list, I consider Suwannaphaeng and Panmot to be darkhorses to win gold. Suwannaphaeng won silver at both the worlds and Asian Games and from what I heard from Thai webboards, she could have beaten the Chinese world champion if their contest was held at a neutral site. Panmot is known for being more dynamic and has more offense than the typical Thai amateur boxer who genrally relies on counter attacking punches. He made the quarters in the worlds and won silver at the Asain Games. If he can be improve his fitness from this year as he is coming back from an ACL injury prior to the 2021 Olympics, he might have a chance to beat the Uzbekistani world champion. The other two are good enough to win bronze in Paris, but would need to show more to have a chance to win gold. 

3. Banlung Tubtimdang- (Men's Taekwondo-58 kg???/-68 kg?????)

Tubtimdang won the silver in the worlds and gold at the Asian Games in the -63 kg category. As the -63 kg event is not in the Olympics, he has to chose whether he will try to qualify for the -58 kg event or -68 kg event. If he chooses the -58 kg, he will likely to be a notable medal contender due to his height and skillset and can be a darkhouse gold medal threat. The question is not about whether he is good enough because as some may see him in the Asian games, he has elite tier athleticism and talent, but it is about whether he has the desire and discipline to power his weight and compete in the -58 kg event where he would have a notable height and physical advantage over the competition. 

4. Atthaya Thitikul (Women's Golf)

Thitikul was the number one player in the world for a good portion of 2022 before having a slight decline and now is currently the 12th ranked player in the world. Despite not winning any championships as of late, she usually makes or is near the top 10 of most of her tournaments. She definitley has elite talent and has an opportunity to win a medal pending on her form during next summer as well as the how well can she adapt to the conditions of the course that will be used for the Olympics. 

Tier 3-Outsiders chance of winning a medal

1. Boxing (Men's 63.5 kg, Women's 75 kg)

There are other notable athletes that has proven to have performances that is worthy of being a medal contenter like the former world champions in badminton mixed doubles of Dechapol and Sapsiree, Skeet shooter Sutiya Jiewchaloemmit, former world champion in women's singles in badminton, Ratchanok Intanon for instance. But the reason that they and others are not included in my list because they either has past their peak and not currently good enough to compete for a medal or don't have the consistency to be counted on to win a medal.

Overall, I think the medal target to at least show some improvement from 2021 is to win 2 gold medals and to have an overall of around 4-6 medals. Personally, I think Thailand could slightly improve from how they did in Tokyo, but I can also see them failing to win any gold medals and may have a subpar performance of winning no more than 3 overall medals. The reason that I am vary about Thailand's performance in Paris is that Thai athletes in general don't handle pressure well. I think it has to do with the cultural aspect of Thais not liking to be working in high pressured environments that has contributed to such problem. I also think the fact that the country is lagging in its sport science development is the factor of why their athletes don't have the stamina and endurance that other countries do. Hence, Thailand does not have the level of success in terms of Olympic medals that other B-tier Asian countries like Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Iran, Chinese Taipei or India have. It doesn't help that their sport administration capabilities is hundered by a bunch of politicians, social elites and bureaucrats coming into such positions and not implementing policies that advances the sport industry.     

14 hours ago, Dolby said:

Which are the 11 Olympic events not competed in Huangzhou? IIRC, there was some difference in Weightlifting. What else? 

As the person who actually made the medal table, here are the 11 Olympic events that were not competed in Huangzhou:

Canoeing (2): Men's and Women's Kayak Cross events

Cycling (2): Men's and Women's BMX Freestyle

Gymnastics (1): Rhythmic Gymnastics' Group All Around

Surfing (2): Men's and Women's Shortboard

Weightlifting (4): Men's -89 kg and -102 kg categories and women's -71 kg and -81 kg categories. 

I did took the liberties of counting the weighlifting events of the men's +109 kg and women's +87 kg categories to be counted in the Olympic medal events count as the men's +102 kg and women's +81 kg categories as anyone who competes in the +109 kg and +87 kg events are automatically elegible to compete in the +102 kg and +81 kg categories by body weight. 

You don't necessary need to take my medal table as the gospel truth as it is my arbitary way of counting these 318 events as Olympic events. I do these medal counts as one way to measure each country's preparedness for Paris 2024. If you really want a more accurate way of measuring each country's true ability, I suggest to make a live medal count out of the Asian qualification rankings of each event for Paris 2024. Regardless, to me at least, the true medal table count that matters is the 2024 Olympics medal count and the Asian rankings for each event in the 2024 Olympics. 

Here are some of the notes that I have regarding the Olympic event medal table:

• 318 out of the 329 events hosted in Paris 2024 is competed in Huangzhou. 
• The total gold medal count is 319 due to a two gold medals given in the men's 110 meters Hurdles as Kuwait and Japan both win gold for crossing the finish line at the same time. 
• South Korea's gold medals in Olympic events has been gradually decreasing since 2010. 
• Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan have essentially swapped places in the medal table hierarchy. In past editions, it was Kazakhstan that usaully sits in the top 4, while Uzbekistan won an average of around 4-8 Olympic events in in previous Asian Games. Now, the tables have been turned as Uzbekistan have reap the benefits of their improvement in a number of sports, especially in Judo, Rowing, Cycling, Taekwondo, Fencing, etc, while maintaining supremacy in Boxing. Conversely, Kazakhstan have their worst ever performance at an Asian Games since their first participation in 1994.
•  Another country that is noted for improvement is Hong Kong. I believe that this is the most gold medals that they won in an Asian Games. Having Siobahn Haughey helps, but there are also other sports that they shown to be at an elite level, especially in Fencing, Sailing, Rugby and Rowing. Winning 4th place in men's football doesn't look bad for them as well.
• India's improvement has to be noted as well. India's pet sports such as Track and Field and Shooting carried them to their best performance in an Asian Games outside of their country. Even that, they could have done even better if their Boxing and Wrestling teams deliver at Huangzhou. 
• While Southeast Asian countries have shown improvement in Olympic sports, it must be said that their overall performance is still a bit underwheling considering that none of them won more than three Olympic events at Huangzhou, which does not bode well for any of these country's chances to do well in Paris.   
• While China is the undisputed number one country in Asia, I and I'm sure a number of people here don't believe that the gap between China and Japan is as big as the 144-44 gold medal count indicates. A full squad of A-tier athletes for Japan would have won a range of 70-80 events, while China's true ability should be around 120-135 gold medals in Olympic events. 
• With that being said, while Japan send B-tier athletes in a number of sports such as Track and Field, Judo, Gymnastics, Skateboarding, Volleyball and Tennis, their A-tier athletes did underachieve in Swimming, Shooting, Table Tennis, Canoeing and Rowing. 
• I will likely write up a blurb for the 2024 prospects of some of the countries that competed in Huangzhou in a couple of days. 

While we are waiting for the pdf for the full results for each sport. I compiled the Asian Games medal table for the 2024 Olympic events that were contended for this competition. Here is the full medal table: 

2022 Asian Games Medal Table for 2024 Olympic Events

1 hour ago, Josh said:

BWF Singapore Open- Singapore, Singapore (Super 750)

 

Women’s Singles 

1. An Se-Yeong  

2. Akane Yamaguchi  

3/4. Chen Yufei  

3/4. Tai Tzu Ying  

 

Men’s Singles

1. Anthony Sinisuka Ginting 

2. Anders Antonsen   

3/4. Kunlavut Vitidsarn  

3/4. Kodai Naraoka  

 

Women’s Doubles

1. Chen Qingchen/Jia Yifan  
2. Baek Ha-Na/Lee So Hee  

3/4. Li Wen Mei/Liu Xuan Xuan  

3/4. Zhang Xu Xian/Zheng Yu  

 

Men’s Doubles 

1.  Takuro Hoki/Yugo Kobayashi  

2. Liang Wei Keng/Wang Chang  

3/4. Aaron Chia/Soh Wooi Yik 

3/4. Choi Sol Gyu/Kim Won Ho  

 

Mixed Doubles 

1. Mathias Christiansen/Alexandra Bøje  

2. Yuta Watanabe/Arisa Higashino  

3/4. Chen Tang Jie/Toh Ee Wei 

3/4. Kim Won Ho/Jeong Ya Eun  

Such a shame that Kunlavut had to retired in his semifinals match against Ginting as he experienced a shoulder injury during the match. But it was not totally unexpected considering his play style and the fact that he has been playing four straight week of world class tournaments since the Sudirman Cup. 

What to look out for in this coming week's Indonesia Open is the return of Viktor Axelsen and what kind of form he will be at after a brief layoff since the end of the Sudirman Cup due to a leg injury. 

Another thing I will look out for is the response of the world's # 1 Chinese mixed doubles pair of Zheng and Huang after getting knocked out in the QF at Singapore. Can they rebound and win the title in Indonesia or are they going to miss out on another championship. If the latter happens, we might be seeing a more open/competitive field in the mixed doubles event that it ever has been for quite a while. For so long, Zheng/Huang have been unstoppable until their unexpected loss at the Tokyo Olympics. They seem to be back at their best earlier this year before suffering some key loses at the Asian Championships and this week. 

Last weekend, both the Men's and Women's FIBA 3x3 basketball teams finished within the top three of the FIBA 3x3 World Cup with the men finishing second and the women winning the world title despite losing a match in group play. Both teams have at least guaranteed a place in next year's world olympic qualification tournament. However, both the men and women have a good chance in qualifying to Paris directly via being the top 3 of the FIBA 3x3 world rankings in November.   

The US Women's Rugby Sevens team have qualified to Paris after finishing in 3rd place in the 2022-23 World Rugby Women's Seven series:

https://www.world.rugby/sevens-series/standings/womens

The men's sevens team, which failed to qualified through the world sevens series after finishing 10th, will have a chance to qualify at the North & Central Americas/Caribbean qualifying tournament in August at Langford, Canada. 

8 hours ago, MHSN said:

They also registered for the Women's football qualifiers in Asia. (didn't have to play in the 1st round) so I assume they want to participate in Paris.

 

but as of now they didn't participate in any event in any sport. I assume that will change with Cuba weightlifting GP

I wonder if North Korea has any precautions in preventing their athletes from contacting covid. 

15 hours ago, Grassmarket said:

Lucky they have skiing to fall back on, then.

But Jet skiing is not the Olympic sports. And if you mean skiing like the winter skiing in the Olympics, Thailand is only good to have a a couple of athletes compete without any hopes of a medal.

One of the few Olympic Sports that Thailand might have some depth in terms of world class athletes is women's golf. And even with recent successes in winning the international crown tournament, that is hardly an indicator that they will an Olympic medal in a very competitive event. 

There's not much for Thailand to fall back on like before.  

21 hours ago, Griff88 said:

Vietnam's main issue has always been funding, that's why their success in SEA Games doesn't really translate to higher level. Their women's runners for example is actually able to challenge for medal in Asian Games (only losing to the imported Bahrainis) but they do not often get the chance to compete internationally or have an even better facility at home. If they can find a way out from this funding problem and get the best program available to their athletes, success will come.

What you say about the Vietnamese being really talented without much funding amazes me in the fact that other nations in the SEA region, mostly the big dog like Thailand and others, have received more funding from their government and private enterprises, but yet can't produce the same results as Vietnam does. This tells me that if Vietnam can receive more funding, they can really excel in the Olympic sports at a global level, win gold medals in the Olympics with regularity and even have a chance to win world/Olympic medals in mainstream amateur sports like Athletics, Swimming and Gymnastics. 

For other countries in the Southeast Asian region to be as successful as Vietnam does, I think sports science and physical fitness needs to gain more attention because of the huge physical disadvantage that athletes in the region has against other parts of the world. Vietnam is probably the most physically gifted nation in the SEA region.

I do have a question for you:

What do you think about Indonesia's medal prospects at the 2023 Asian Games and 2024 Olympics?

To give a better perspective of these games, I compiled the medal tally of this Southeast Asian Games in Olympic Events. About 196 out of 327 events that will be competed in Paris 2024 was hosted in Cambodia. This accounts only to 59 percent of the events held in 2024 being featured here in the sea games. One thing of note is that I took the liberty of counting the taekwondo events of the Men's +87 kg and the Women's +73 kg as an Olympic event of the equivalent of the Men's +80 kg and the Women's +67 kg. The logic here is that athletes who competed in the +87 kg and the +73 kg are eligible, weight wise to compete in the +80 kg and the +67 kg respectively. In the contrary, I didn't count weightlifting events of men's +89 kg and women's +71 kg to be the equivalent of the Olympic events of men's +102 kg and women's +81 kg under the logic that those who compete in the +89 kg and the +71 kg are not automatically guarantee by body weight to compete in the +102 kg and +81 kg events. Case in point, Kristel Machoron of the Philippines, who competed in the +71 kg does not have the weight to compete in the +81 kg event. So, here's the tally of the Olympic Events count:

1. Vietnam 48-40-35

2. Thailand 37-46-37

3. Singapore 37-23-36

4. Indonesia 27-23-36

5. Philippines 20-34-34

6. Malaysia 16-12-35

7. Cambodia 11-12-16

8. Myanmar 1-2-10

9. Laos 0-2-7

10. Timor-Leste 0-0-3

11. Brunei 0-0-0

And here's the tally for certain sports in Olympic events:

Athletics: 1. Thailand 16-8-5 2. Vietnam 12-20-8 3. Indonesia 7-3-9 4. Malaysia 5-3-11 5. Philippines 4-10-8 6. Singapore 3-2-5 7. Cambodia 1-0-0 8. Myanmar 0-0-2

Badminton: 1. Indonesia 4-2-3 2. Thailand 1-2-2 3. Malaysia 0-1-4 4. Singapore 0-0-1

Boxing: 1. Thailand 5-1-1 2. Philippines 2-3-1 3. Cambodia 1-2-3 4. Vietnam 1-1-1 5. Indonesia 0-2-3 6. Myanmar 0-0-4 7. Laos 0-0-1 7. Malaysia 0-0-1 7. Singapore 0-0-1 7. Timor-Leste 0-0-1 

Fencing: 1. Singapore 7-3-6 2. Vietnam 4-3-3 3. Thailand 1-1-3 4. Philippines 0-5-5 5. Malaysia 0-0-4 6. Cambodia 0-0-2 7. Indonesia 0-0-1

Gymnastics (Only Men's Artistic events were hosted): 1. Vietnam 4-2-2 2. Philippines 4-2-0 3. Thailand 0-2-0 4. Indonesia 0-1-1 5. Singapore 0-1-0 6. Malaysia 0-0-5

Swimming: 1. Singapore 21-11-9 2. Vietnam 7-3-7 3. Thailand 2-10-7 4. Philippines 2-5-5 5. Malaysia 1-3-3 6. Indonesia 0-1-2 

Weightlifting: 1. Philippines 2-2-1 2. Indonesia 2-1-2 3. Thailand 1-3-1 4. Vietnam 1-0-2 

Wrestling: : 1. Vietnam 8-4-1 2. Indonesia 4-4-1 3. Cambodia 4-3-5 4. Philippines 1-2-3 5. Singapore 1-1-5 6. Thailand 0-4-3 7. Laos 0-0-5

Only 20 out of 32 Olympic sports were hosted at Cambodia, so this tally doesn't necessary show the full strengths and weaknesses of each country's performance nor indicative of how each country will preform in next year's Olympics. However, we can summarize that Vietnam has more depth in their expertise of most of the Olympic sports than any other country in the region, especially in the combat sports variety. Singapore is also impressive in its performance this time around, almost finishing second in the Olympic event tally. Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines and Malaysia can be consider somewhat disappointing with not showing much improvement from last year's edition. 

Regarding the prospects of the SEA countries in Paris 2024, I believe that Indonesia will be the top country in the region at next year's Olympics. Indonesia is certain to win gold in Men's speed climbing and has a good chance to win in men's weightlifting and men's doubles in badminton. Indonesia can easily win about 3 gold medals and a total of 4-8 medals. Vietnam, which has been the top country in Olympic sport events for the past few editions will find it hard to win even a medal at Paris as most of its top events competes directly with China, Japan and South Korea. Their best hope is in women's boxing. Philippines will rely hardly on Carlos Yulo to win a gold medal/medals as its boxing and weightlifting programs are not guarantee to win gold or any kind of medals at Paris. Singapore could win gold in Men's Kitesurfing but don't have a Joseph Schooling or a world class table tennis team to bail them out this time around. Malaysia's hopes of any kind of medal is likely going to rest on badminton as its top stars in track cycling and diving are aging. Thailand, which has been the perennial powerhouse in the region from the late 1990's until the early 2010's, may be able to win a gold medal, but do not have the depth of world class/Asian level athletes it used to have some years ago. Considering that the country receives governmental support more so than private funding, its hopes may lie on whether the progressive coalition that won the recent general elections will be able to led the government and enact changes that can being positivity for its sports development. If the same old people, like the current Thai Olympic Committee president stays in power, expect Thailand to continue its gradual slide. 

The one good thing that we can take out of this is at least for the next three editions, there will be a limit of the amount of non-Olympic/Asian Games sports hosted to only 4 sports with no more than a total of 32 events hosted. https://www.straitstimes.com/sport/sea-games-sports-programme-to-be-standardised-from-2025-to-2029  

The US has announced their teams for the 2023 FIBA 3x3 world cup, which will start at the end of May: 

USA announce teams for FIBA 3x3 World Cup 2023 - FIBA.basketball

No automatic Olympic berths form this tournament, but it will definitely influenced the FIBA 3x3 world rankings, which is used to determine the first three team per gender to qualify for Paris. 

On 5/18/2023 at 1:10 PM, bmo said:

Does anyone here plan on attending the LA 2028 games?

If time permits and I can get extended vacation time, I will be attending the LA games. I want to watch the track and field, swimming, soccer and badminton events. 

If she doesn't smoke weed in the lead up to the Olympics again, then Sha'Carri Richardson should be the next star to shine for the US at Paris 2024. 

20 minutes ago, bmo said:

 Canada could have won that game if the coach would’ve held the runner at 3rd base.  USA didn’t get timely hits today. They left too many runners on base. Not a convincing win, but a win is a win. I’m interested to see what  Japan does in a bit.

Let's hope USA's pitching would stay true against Japan while its hitting will improve as the tournament goes along. 

On 13/07/2021 at 05:40, Wumo said:

[ hide]

 

General (25)

1 - The number of Asian NOCs that win a medal will be higher than the number of Pan American NOCs that win a medal. [YES/NO - X]

2 - A medalist from the 2017 Jeux de la Francophonie will win a medal. [YES-7]

3 - At least one individual medallist from Athens 2004 will win an individual medal. [YES/NO - X]
 

4 - Japan will win at least 3 medals in team sports. [YES-6]

 

5 - Spain will win more than 22 medals (their record). [YES-7]

 

6 - The youngest medallist will be younger than 14. [YES-7]

 

7 - United States will win at least 10 medals in team sports. [NO-6]

 

8 - Will North Macedonia get a medal at this edition of Olympics. [NO-7]

 

9 - India will win 7 or more total medals, surpassing their highest ever number for a single edition. [YES/NO - X]

 

10 - Philippines or Malaysia will win their first olympic gold medal. [YES-8]

 

11 - Sweden will win more gold medals than Norway. [YES/NO - X]

 

12 - The number of gold medals won by Brazil will be equal or lower than the number of gold medals won by all other south american nations added up. [NO-7]

 

13 - Host nation Japan wins at least 10 gold medals. [YES-10]

 

14 - At least one athlete will test positive for cannabis. [YES-8]

 

15 - Malaysia will win a gold medal. [NO-8]

 

16 - At least one nation will win its first ever olympic medal. [YES-10]

 

17 - No nordic nation (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden) will win more than 10 medals. [NO-7]

 

18 - Bahrain will maximum win one medal. [NO-8]

 

19 - Canada will win at least 23 medals. [NO-6]

 

20 - Jamaica's female athletes will stand/win at least 3/4 of Jamaica's medals overall. [YES-7]

 

21 - Netherlands will win at least 24 medals. [YES-10]

 

22 - Italy will be ranked higher in the overall medal table in Tokyo than their 9th place in Rio 2016. [NO-7]

 

23 - ROC, France and Germany will end up higher in the overall medal table than Great Britain. [NO-9]

 

24 - At least one nation will win 6 medals, but none of gold. [NO-8]

 

25 - At least one nation from every continent (the five olympic continents) will be represented in the top 20 in the medal table. [NO-8]

 

 

Aquatics - Diving (2)

26 - Canada will win at least three medals overall. [YES/NO - X]
 

27 - Great Britain will win silver medals in both men's synchronized events. [YES/NO - X]

 

Aquatics - Swimming (10)

28 - United States will win a medal in every relay event [YES-8]
 

29 - In at least two events in swimming there will be a tie for a medal position. [NO-5]

 

30 - Japan will end above China in the swimming medal table. [NO-7]

 

31 - Caeleb Dressel will set at least one world record. [YES-6]

 

32 - Italy will win at least one gold medal. [YES-5]

 

33 - Katinka Hosszu will not win a medal. [NO-8]

 

34 - Ariarne Titimus will win gold in women's 200m and 400m freestyle  [YES-5]

 

35 - Every continent (Europe, Asia, Africa, Oceania, North and South America) will be represented in the swimming medal table. [YES-7]

 

36 - Kliment Kolesnikov, Evgeny Rylov and Kristof Milak will combined win at least 6 individual medals. [YES-7]

 

37 - At least two Rio 2016-medallists from the marathon swimming events will win a medal in Tokyo. [NO-10]

 

Aquatics - Synchronized Swimming (1)

38 - China will win silver medals in both duet and team event. [YES-10]
 

 

Aquatics - Water Polo (2)

39 - Women's tournament - United States will win all their matches with a goal difference of a least four goals in each match. [NO-7]

 

40 - Men's tournament - At least two of the three nations that won a medal in Rio 2016 will again be on the podum (not necessarily in the same place). [YES-7]

 

Archery (2)

41 - There will be at least one event with a podium with only Asian athletes/teams on it. [YES-6]
 

42 - 13 or more nations will be represented in the quarterfinals in men's and women's individual events combined. [NO -6]

 

Athletics (13)

43 - There will be a podium sweep i.e all medals won by one nation in at least one event . [YES-7]

44 - At least two world records will be broken in the field events (including decathlon and heptathlon). [YES-7]
 

45 - United States will combined win 6 or more medals in the 100m and 200m events. [YES-8]

 

46 - Wayde van Niekerk will win a medal. [YES-7]

 

47 - All race walk gold medals will be won by Asian nations. [NO-7]

 

48 - Ukraine will win two medals in women's high jump. [NO-8]

 

49 - Japan will win at least one medal excluding race walk events and relays. [YES/NO - X]

 

50 - At least two athletes in men's pole vault will get over 6.00m. [YES/NO - X]

 

51 - Yulimar Rojas will have at least three jumps over 15.18m in women's triple jump final. [NO-7]

 

52 - 3 or more relay teams will be disqualified or DNF in the 100m relay events finals. [YES-8]

 

53 - Joshua Cheptegei will not win any gold medals. [YES-6]

 

54 - The combined score of men's decathlon and women's heptathlon will be 15.715 or higher. [NO-6]

 

55 - Kenya will not win any gold medals in the 800m and 1500m for both men and women. [YES-7]

 

 

Badminton (2)

56 - Japan will win a medal in three of the five events [YES-8]
 

57 - Four out of five finals will be in three sets [NO -6]

 

 

Baseball (1)

58 - Two Asian teams will be on the podium [YES-8]

 

 

Basketball (2)

59 - Women's Tournament -  United States will win all their matches with a difference of more than 20 points. [NO-10]
 

60 - Men's Tournament - France will be the best-placed European team. [NO-7]

 

Basketball 3x3 (2)

61 - Women's Tournament -  Mongolia will score 10 or less points in all of their games. [NO-7]
 

62 - Men's Tournament - The two finalists will both be European teams. [YES-9]

 

Boxing (2)

63 - Great Britain and Ireland will win the same amount of gold medals [NO-6]
 

64 - In at least two of the weight classes none of the top four seeded boxers will be on the podium. [NO-7]

 

Canoeing - Slalom (2)

65 - There will be at least one missed gate (50 seconds penalty) in one of the men's finals. [YES-8]

 

66 - None of the semifinal winners will end up winning gold. [NO-7]

 

Canoeing - Sprint (2)

67 - The boat leading after 250m in men's K-4 will win gold . [YES- 7]
 

68 - Lisa Carrington will win at least 3 medals. [NO-7]

 

Cycling - BMX (2)

69 - Colombia will win two medals in the BMX racing events. [NO -10]

 

70 - United States will win gold in both BMX freestyle events. [YES-9]

 

Cycling - Mountain Bike (2)

71 - There will be less than 20 seconds between 1st and 2nd place in the men's race. [YES-5]
 

72 - Both Pauline Ferrand Prevot and Sina Frei will be on the podium in women's race. [NO-5]

 

Cycling - Road (2)

73 - Rohan Dennis will beat Filippo Ganna in men's time trial. [YES-6]
 

74 - Women's road race will be decided in a sprint (less than 5 seconds between 1st and 2nd place). [NO-5]

 

Cycling - Track (3)

75 - A female athlete will win at least two individual medals. [YES-7]

 

76 - At least two world records will be broken. [NO-5]

 

77 - Netherlands will top the medal table.[YES-7]

 

Equestrian (2)

78 - Australia will finish inside the Top 8 in all three team events. [YES-8]

79 - At least ten athletes will enter the medal jump-off in the individual jumping. [NO-8]

 

Fencing (2)

80 - At least one fencer seeded 17th or worst in the individual events will win a medal. [NO-6]
 

81 - At least one nation will win more than one gold medal in the team events. [YES-6]

 

Field Hockey (2)

82 - At least one medal match will finish without any goals scored from penalty corners. [NO-7]
 

83 - Women's Tournament - The defending gold medallists from Rio 2016, Great Britain, will be eliminated in the quarterfinals. [NO-8]

 

Football (2)

84 - Both gold medallists will be among teams who won their group in the pool phase. [YES-8]
 

85 - Women's Tournament - United States will concede a maximum of one goal in the pool phase. [YES-6]

 

 

 

Golf (2)

86 - Both gold medals will be won by an athlete from an Asian country. [NO-6]
 

87 - Rory Sabbatini (SVK) will finish ahead of Ondrej Lieser (CZE) in men's event. [YES-7]

 

 

Gymnastics - Artistic (3)

88 - Women's Balance Beam - At least three athletes will fall off the beam during the apparatus final. [NO-7]
 

89 - Turkey will win their first ever olympic medal in gymnastics. [YES-7]

 

90 - Epke Zonderland will be the oldest medallists. [NO-8]

 

Gymnastics - Rhythmic (1)

91 - Bulgaria and Italy will get medals in the group all-around event. [YES-7]
 

 

Gymnastics - Trampoline (1)

92 - The point difference between 1st and 3rd place in the men's and women's event finals will combined (both event included) be 2.75 or less.  [NO -5]

 

 

Handball (2)

93 - A non-European team will make it to the semifinals (Men's or Women's). [NO-9]

 

94 - Men's Tournament - The top scorer will be a wing player. [YES-5]

 

Judo (2)

95 - Japan will win at least 7 medals. [YES-10]
 

96 - Kosovo will win two medals. [NO-5]

 

 

Karate (2)

97 - At least 12 different countries will win one medal. [YES-7]
 

98 - Turkey will be the European nation with most medal (In case they equal with another European nation the answer to the question will be no). [YES-7]

 

 

Modern Pentathlon (2)

99 - At least one athlete (male or female) will win less than 8 matches in the preliminary fencing round. [YES-6]

 

100 - Egypt will have at least two athletes in the top 6 in the two events combined. (Two athletes in the top 6 in either men's or women's event or one female and one male athlete that will get a top 6 place each). [NO-5]

 

Rowing (3)

101 - Denmark will win at least three medals. [NO -6]
 

102 - 16 or fewer nations will win a medal overall.  [YES-5]

 

103 - The 1st and 2nd place in women's eight will be decided by 2.2 seconds or fewer. [YES-5]

 

Rugby Sevens (2)

 

104 - In both men's and women's tournaments there will be no European team on the podium. [NO-5]

 

105 - New Zealand will be the best placed team from Oceania in both men's and women's tournament. [YES-6]

 

 

Sailing (2)

106 - Papua New Guinea will finish last in both Men's Laser and Women's Laser Radial classes. [YES-5]
 

107 - The two French windsurfers, Goyard and Picon, will have a combined total place that is better or equal-placed than/with Great Britain's two windsurfers, Squires and Wilson. [YES-6]

 

 

Shooting (3)

108 - In at least one event final (among 50m rifle 3P, 10m air rifle, 10m pistol, skeet, trap) the score of the women's gold medallist will be higher than the score of the men's gold medallist.[YES-6]
 

109 - In at least one individual event, the leader after the qualification stage will end up last in the final. [NO-5]

 

110 - At least one nation will win more than one medal in a single mixed team event. [NO -5]

 

Skateboard (2)

111 - Will there be a clean sweep (all podium places won by one nation) in a skateboarding event. [NO-6]
 

 

 

Softball (1)

112 - Italy will finish 6th. [YES-8]

 

 

Sport Climbing (1)

113 - In women’s combined, the winner of speed climbing in the qualification round will qualify to the combined final. [YES-5]

 

 

Surfing (2)

114 - Will any european country get a medal in surfing. [NO-6]
 

115 - At least one medalist (men's or women's) will be a surfer that didn't take part in any stage (contested prior to the 2020 Olympic Games) of the 2021 World Surf League. [NO -5]

 

Table Tennis (2)

116 - At least one of the following athletes will score a first round victory - Ibrahima Diaw (SEN), Yoshua Shing (VAN), Dodji Fanny (TOG), Hend Zaza (SYR). Batmönkhiin Bolor-Erdene (MGL), Sarah de Nutte (LUX). [YES-5]
 

117 - Australia will lose both opening team matches (men and women) 3:0. [YES-7]

 

Taekwondo (2)

118 - At least 20 nations will win a medal. [YES/NO - X]
 

119 - At least one nation will win its first Olympic medal in Taekwondo. [YES/NO - X]

 

Tennis (2)

120 - The singles gold medal in either men or women event will be won by a non-Grand Slam singles winner. [NO-6]

 

121 - An athlete will win medals in singles AND doubles OR singles AND mixed event. [NO-5]

 

Triathlon (2)

122 - Mixed Relay event - France will be better ranked than Great Britain and Australia will be better ranked than New Zealand. [YES-5]
 

123 - Great Britain will not win a medal in men's event. [YES-5]

 

Volleyball - Indoor (2)

124 - Men's tournament - There will be three teams on the podium that played in the same group during the Group Stage. [NO -7]

 

125 - Women's tournament - It will be a repeat of the 2018 World Championship podium (Doesn't have to be in the same order). [NO-7]

 

 

Volleyball - Beach (1)

126 - Brazil will win one medal or none in both men's or women's beach volleyball tournaments. [YES-7]

 

 

Weightlifting (2)

127 - At least one Chinese athete will get three invalid lifts in either snatch or clean & jerk. [YES-5]
 

128 - At least two world records will be broken (snatch, clean and jerk or overall). [YES-7]

 

Wrestling (2)

129 - Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan will combined win at least 7 medals [NO -5]
 

130 - Cuba will be ranked higher than United States in the wrestling medal table. [NO-8]

 

 

[ /hide]

 Japan and  South Korea fighting for gold, while  USA winning bronze. 

For the United States , I believe team USA will be the only country to have more than 100 total medals, probably around the range 100-110, while winning 40-50 gold medals, securing the top sport of both the gold medal and overall medal tally counts. While the US may have some decline in their dominance in Swimming, the new sport events, including skateboarding and surfing will help out team USA maintain similar medal count figures to that of the past 20 years.

For Thailand , I expect them to win about 1-2 total medals with probably 1 gold medal from Panipak Wongpattanakit in 49 kg in women's taekwondo.  Prior to last week, I thought their was a chance that Thailand could win up to 3-4 total medals, but due to the withdrawal of Thitisan Panmot in men's boxing, 52 kg, that injury had a big hit on Thailand's medal chances. Badminton, women's golf, women's boxing and shooting could contend for medals, but need to overcome their psychological meltdowns to win a medal.  

While pro Thai fans would argue that the ban of its weightlifting team is the main cause of its potential lack of substantial success in this year's Olympics (It's nobody's else fault that they get caught doping), in my opinion, it is the lack of improvement in Olympic Sports as well as the decline of its economy along with its sociopolitical issues (These issues affect a country's performance because most countries are funded by the state government) are the main causes of its imminent failure. 

Since the start of the 2020 +1 cycle, Thailand has done poorly in Olympic sports competitions in the Southeast Asian (SEA) Games and Asian Games. In the 2017 and 2019 SEA Games, Thailand has finished third on medal counts for Olympic events, often lagging its main competitor, Vietnam, in key sports such as Swimming, Athletics and Gymnastics. In the 2018 Asian Games, Thailand finished 11th in the medal count, marking its first time that it fell of the top 10 since 1994. A bad performance in this year's Olympic would sum up the downward trajectory of the country's sports program. It is likely that Thailand would officially lose its no. 1 spot among Southeast Asian countries at the Olympics and considering the training/preparation difficulties during the pandemic, I would not be surprised if Thailand would not win any medal at all.   

23 hours ago, Griff88 said:

@Fly_like_a_don

 

My “realistic” podium:

MS: Momota, Chou, Axelsen

WS: Tai TY, Chen YF, Okuhara

MD: Sukamuljo/Gideon, Endo/Watanabe, Ahsan/Setiawan

WD: Matsumoto/Nagahara, Lee/Shin, Fukushima/Hirota

XD: Zheng/Huang, Puavaranukroh/Taerattanachai, Jordan/Oktavianti

How physically fit is Praveen Jordan right now ? I noticed earlier this year in the three world tour tournaments in Bangkok that he was kind out of shape

Is there any particular reason why you left out Wang Yilu/Huang Dongping out of a medal place in XD? In my eyes, they're at least marginally better than the Indonesian and Thai pairs. 

Is Sports Illustrated making predictions this year? I can't seem to find them. 

4 hours ago, Rdbc said:

I'm back... a few days before the start!

 

Anyone yet to figure out what their sleeping schedules will look like? 

Since I have somewhat of a long commute to work, I really can't watch the events around midnight till 6 am. I'm probably watch highlights of the weekday events from 8 pm-11 pm and sleep from 11 pm/midnight till 6 am. 

I can watch a lot more during the weekend but trying to not stay later than 2 am. 

I want to drop by and say hello and good luck to the Netherlands team in the 2020 Olympics.

Looking at the qualification performances and rankings of Dutch athletes in various sports, I can see the Netherlands having possible their best summer games ever.

I can see the Netherlands winning more than 10 gold medals, possible around 12-13 if things ago right of if their athletes can maintain their performances to 2019-2020 in sports such Cycling, Sailing, Rowing, Women's Handball, Athletics, etc.

I also can see you guys winning around 30-40 total medals, which would be your best overall haul in a summer Olympics.

I don't know what your local press say about your team in terms of medal expectations, but I want you to know that I have high hopes for the Dutch Olympic Team. Good luck and do your best. 

I would say all of China's athletes in women's weightlifting are safe picks for gold as well as China's men's and women's teams in Table Tennis