40 seems reasonable. But you have to understand the difference between Paris 2024 and Tokyo is that the quota is 10,500 capped. Tokyo was 10,500 (for 28 sports) + any for new. Its not realistic to expect an expanded field when the quota is dropping. The 28 sports are going to say, why do I need to cut, when the others don't?
Here are the cuts I would make:
For all team sports of Field hockey, football and possibly handball cut the number of athletes by 1 per team. = 72 quotas
Judo - cut 10 spots (ie tripartie spots) = 10 quotas. Possibly more.
I would cut down the marathon field too like 50~
Sports such as MP, Archery, fencing, badminton have the right amount of quotas