I mostly agree, but I think there’s some areas where you’re underestimatin Canada.
Volleyball (-12) - Despite their momentum, I don’t see our women’s volleyball team qualifying. ALSO, it’d take a big upset for us to not qualify a second pairing in women’s beach volleyball, with it being either Pavan/McBain or Bukovec/Bansley at the NORCECA Qualifier. I’d also give a solid chance to Scachter/Dearing. We’d be rooting for Diaz/Alayo and a second American pairing to qualify through the World Rankings to be almost guaranteed, but even if both are there I wouldn’t write us off.
Rowing (-10) - I think you’re crazy to think that Canada will qualify 30 (!) athletes in rowing. We’ve been on a decline ever since Tokyo, and I don’t see us coming back from it in time for the Final Qualification Regatta. I’m thinking we qualify in men’s eight and men’s single sculls.
Sailing (+1) - ICLA 7 quota through the Final Qualification Regatta.
Shooting (+1) - Not exactly sure in which event, but I do think one of our shooters can secure a quota through a Pan American Olympic Qualifier. Lindsay Boddez in women’s trap seems the most likely, but there’s a bunch of events where we’re on the outside looking in (just as easily could fail to win a quota) so I’m not too sure.
Boxing (+2) - Way too pessimistic here, Cavanaugh and Delgado have good chances.
Tennis (+?) - Not exactly sure how many athletes we’ll qualify, but 3 sounds pretty bleak, even with the state of Canadian tennis at the moment. Andresscu, Shapo, Raonic, Marino all have chances.