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AlFHg

Shooting CAT American Championships 2018

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This sport has in each event an elite of 5, 6 people that do well in most tournaments but after them there are 20-25 people that perform once in a while and then have average results. Some of them will qualify, some not... This sport is all luck beyond a certain point.

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32 minutes ago, JoshMartini007 said:

Is there a chance that they would miss out in a non-continental qualification system? 

Yes and I'd say this chance is >90% for the two shooters I mentioned.

Top 15? These guys aren't close to the level needed to get one top 15 (that would be enough, there are very few people who are consistently in top 15).And not all World Cups are in Europe/Asia...Guadalajara 2018

https://www.issf-sports.org/competitions/results/detail.ashx?cshipid=2390&resultkey=Q10000_I_0503181000.1.TR125.0

102 for the Mexican (117 needed for a top 15).

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44 minutes ago, Dunadan said:

Yes and I'd say this chance is >90% for the two shooters I mentioned.

Top 15? These guys aren't close to the level needed to get one top 15 (that would be enough, there are very few people who are consistently in top 15).And not all World Cups are in Europe/Asia...Guadalajara 2018

https://www.issf-sports.org/competitions/results/detail.ashx?cshipid=2390&resultkey=Q10000_I_0503181000.1.TR125.0

102 for the Mexican (117 needed for a top 15).

 

I didn't say they were top 15, just that once you are outside of the top 15 you aren't guaranteed a spot in a 29(+double starters) athlete field. It's also unfair to use the 102, especially since he got 118 here, more than enough to qualify in an international competition. Of course comparing two different events is bad for shotgun events as weather plays a big factor.

 

Pan America may be weaker than Asia and Europe in shooting, but we aren't so weak that our best shooters wouldn't qualify to the Olympics without continental quotas, especially since none of the World Cup events have occurred so outside of the 4 USA quotas won at the World Championships we are more or less at full strength. Now quotas won at the Pan American Games may be a different story, but the Olympics does want universality.

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51 minutes ago, JoshMartini007 said:

 

I didn't say they were top 15, just that once you are outside of the top 15 you aren't guaranteed a spot in a 29(+double starters) athlete field. It's also unfair to use the 102, especially since he got 118 here, more than enough to qualify in an international competition. Of course comparing two different events is bad for shotgun events as weather plays a big factor.

 

Pan America may be weaker than Asia and Europe in shooting, but we aren't so weak that our best shooters wouldn't qualify to the Olympics without continental quotas, especially since none of the World Cup events have occurred so outside of the 4 USA quotas won at the World Championships we are more or less at full strength. Now quotas won at the Pan American Games may be a different story, but the Olympics does want universality

 

No doubt about that, but some of those who gained the quota yesterday (Guatemala and Mexico) are clearly not the best Panamerican shooters, they just got lucky in the final against better shooters like Carroll...and they reached the final only because the average level is very low. Without continental quotas Carroll would (and will) qualify, Ruano Oliva would not because she would never be close to the top 6, 10, 15 (or whatever you consider to be the minimum result to obtain at least once in order to gain a quota) in a global event.

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13 minutes ago, Dunadan said:

 

No doubt about that, but some of those who gained the quota yesterday (Guatemala and Mexico) are clearly not the best Panamerican shooters, they just got lucky in the final against better shooters like Carroll...and they reached the final only because the average level is very low. Without continental quotas Carroll would (and will) qualify, Ruano Oliva would not because she would never be close to the top 6, 10, 15 (or whatever you consider to be the minimum result to obtain at least once in order to gain a quota) in a global event.

 

I think you are underestimating them because they are among the best from the continent. Besides if you say they were "lucky" then what's stopping them from being "lucky" again? Again, I'm not saying they are favoured to win a medal, but to say they have single digit percent chance of qualifying as the 25th-29th best athlete is wrong. Especially in a sport like shooting.

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There will be some fluke results at World cups too, this sport is 50% about how a shooter wakes up in the given day. There is no way to avoid some weak shooters to qualify unless you implement some ranking system to award ALL the quotas.

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25 minutes ago, JoshMartini007 said:

 

I think you are underestimating them because they are among the best from the continent. Besides if you say they were "lucky" then what's stopping them from being "lucky" again? Again, I'm not saying they are favoured to win a medal, but to say they have single digit percent chance of qualifying as the 25th-29th best athlete is wrong. Especially in a sport like shooting.

They probably do, not everyone can have a double digit percent chance, much like you can't have ten people with a 40% chance to win a medal :p 

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30 minutes ago, heywoodu said:

They probably do, not everyone can have a double digit percent chance, much like you can't have ten people with a 40% chance to win a medal :p 

 

That's 3 medals, this is 29 spots, it's much easier to have a 20-30% chance at qualifying and be ranked, say in the top 40-50.

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12 minutes ago, JoshMartini007 said:

 

I think you are underestimating them because they are among the best from the continent. Besides if you say they were "lucky" then what's stopping them from being "lucky" again? Again, I'm not saying they are favoured to win a medal, but to say they have single digit percent chance of qualifying as the 25th-29th best athlete is wrong. Especially in a sport like shooting.

And I think you are overestimating them for yesterday's results. Look at the qualification results...-10 from first place for Ruano, that's a huge gap... what's the chance of getting a quota in a world cup hitting 10 targets less than the first place? And 111 out of 125 seems to be by far her best result this year. There is a lot of shooters of this level around the world.

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Looks like :ECU Durango is a bit of a choker. She will fail to qualify here despite winning both pistol qualification rounds.

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Women's 25m pistol quota goes to :USA.

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I suppose it is over after 50 shots, so :USA should have earned the quota. With this quota, USA has already qualified 50 athletes to Tokyo 

Edited by AlFHg

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