Winter Olympic Games Beijing 2022 Early Qualification Predictions

[Olympian1010 7,971]

3 minutes ago, Grassmarket said:

Thanks for the invite, but I never do prediction contests.  
 

If I lose, it makes me look stupid.  

 

If I win it makes me feel stupid for not betting & winning lots of money.  

This thread isn’t a contest, I don’t know about the thread @rafalgorka is talking about. This is just a thread for people to talk about what their expectations are for how many athletes their country will have in Beijing.

[rafalgorka 1,517]

@Olympian1010 We had this thread before

 

 

https://totallympics.com/topic/2360-tokyo-2020-day-after-day-as-it-could-have-happened/

 

I thought we could do something similar with Beijing.

 

But obviously it would be a new thread, here we can discuss the team qualifications.

 

And I don't want to make any contest. Just a nice discussion, exchange of views. This Tokyo discussion was superfun for me.

[Col_Frost 179]

@rafalgorkaif you'll made a new thread for that, why not? But maybe year before olympics?  

 

Ok, back to the subject. That's how I think Polish team will look like:

 

 

 

Ski Sports

 

Alpine Skiing  (2) - Maryna Gąsienica-Daniel and some guy

Cross Country Skiing  (6-7) - Izabela Marcisz, Monika Skinder and 2 other girls; Maciej Staręga and 1-2 other guys

Ski Jumping  (5-7) - Kamil Stoch, Piotr Żyła, Dawid Kubacki and 2 other guys; maybe 1-2 girls

Nordic Combined  (1) - Szczepan Kupczak

Freestyle Skiing  (0) - none

Snowboarding  (3-4) - Aleksandra Król, Weronika Biela, Oskar Kwiatkowski and maybe someone in freestyle or sbx

Biathlon  (8-9) - Monika Hojnisz, Kamila Żuk, Kinga Zbylut and 1-2 other girls; Grzegorz Guzik, Łukasz Szczurek, Andrzej Nędza-Kubiniec and 1 other guy

 

 

Skating Sports

 

Speed Skating  (8-10) - Natalia Czerwonka, Karolina Bosiek, Kaja Ziomek, Karolina Gąsecka, Magdalena Czyszczoń; Artur Nogal, Artur Janicki, Marcin Bachanek, maybe Artur Waś and/or Piotr Michalski

Short Track Speed Skating  (3-5) - Natalia Maliszewska, Kamila Stormowska, maybe Nicole Mazur and/or Patrycja Maliszewska; Rafał Anikiej

Figure Skating  (3) - Ekaterina Kurakova, pair Natalia Kaliszek and Maksym Spodyriev

 

 

Sleigh Sports

 

Luge  (4) - Klaudia Domaradzka, Mateusz Sochowicz, pair Wojciech Chmielewski and Jakub Kowalewski

Skeleton  (0) - none

Bobsleigh  (0-2) - maybe two Sylwia Smolarek and Julia Słupecka

 

 

Team Sports

 

Curling  (0) - none

Ice Hockey  (0) - none

 

So 43-54 athletes. In 2018 we had 62...

[hckošice 14,822]

Slovensko

 

Team Size Prediction for Winter Olympic Games 2022 Beijing

 

Ski Sports

 

Alpine Skiing  (7) - Baring health issues and injuries, Petra Vlhová and both Žampa bros should be safe, thanks Petra our federation will surely be allowed to send at least 3 more young girls to experience the games and with the Žampa´s we will send also for sure at least one more male to the games. So I expect 7, but it can be more or obviously much less as well, so we´ll see.

Cross Country Skiing  (2) - 1 M and 1 W for sure, may be 1 or 2 M or W as well like in the previous games, but I don´t think it will happen this time.

Ski Jumping  (0) - Sadly not yet. Maybe 1 referee will travel for mark judging

Nordic Combined  (0) - ...haha...

Freestyle Skiing  (1) - Zuzana Stromková I believe will be there this time, again..baring injury

Snowboarding  (2) - Klaudia Medlová, baring injury, will be there for sure, and I have a feeling we will send also someone else this time maybe her younger sister Zuzana or even some male participant perhaps Bačo in Parallel but it is obvioulsy not for granted..

Biathlon  (10) - Even if our biathlon situation is really bad now, I would say historically low, I think we should be able even with our current athletes be able to qualify full teams in both genders. But again it can also perfectly end in a disaster and only individual quota or two among mens, the female team should be fine thanks Fialková sisers I guess and hope...

 

 

Skating Sports

 

Speed Skating  (0) - as soon as the elephants will fly we will send someone

Short Track Speed Skating  (1) - One of our biggest present era sport talent Petra Rusnáková will hopefully qualify.

Figure Skating  (1) - After the retirement of Lukáš Csolley, we will probably qualify only a girl in the Womes singles competiton, perhaps Nicole Rajčová again if she´ll decide to aim for Beijing.

 

 

Sleigh Sports

 

Luge  (4) - We should qualify 1 particpant in all events I believe, maybe with some luck even 2 guys for the Mens singles to raise the amount of 5 athletes.

Skeleton  (0) - Even a participation in fencing is more realistic than this ffs

Bobsleigh  (1) - Seriously no idea, maybe our M team will do everything to qualify and perhaps will succeed, who knows, but if I can bet on someone I would go for Viktoria Čerňanská qalifying in the Monobob debut, among the juniors she was one of the best in the world if not the best even...so who knows...okay, I´ll write her..ho ahead: 1 in Bobsleigh

 

 

Team Sports

 

Curling  (0) - No way, the only chance can be the mixed doubles but we will need a 48 teams Olympic tournament for that

Ice Hockey  (25) - Jesus, God, Allah, Buddha, Jehova, Yahweh, Manitou, Hallowed are the Ori...whoever...Just please, please, please, please, please in your greatness and mercy do not allow this catastrophe, national shame, tragedy and the worst possible nightmare to happen and help our mens team to qualify... amen

 

 

 

Total Optimistic Prediction  -  (54-58)

Total Pessimistic Prediction  - (20-25) you know without who....pooh, pooh, pooh ! don´t say it !

 

Total Realistic Prediction  -  (48-52)

[OlympicsFan 858]

On 26/11/2020 at 21:23, rafalgorka said:

@phelps THANK YOU!

 

Maybe we can try day-by-day Beijing predictions - what would we watch on every day, what are the most interesting events for us,  what are our medal predictions, how our national teams will be doing...

 

Like we did with Tokyo day-by-day medal predictions and what would-we-watch-today thread ;-)

 

@Benolympique@bmo@CCB@Col_Frost@OlympicsFan@hckosice@Jinzha@intoronto@dcro @Fly_like_a_don@Grassmarket @Gianlu33anyone interested? (sorry if I forgot somebody here)

 

We could do it in February, when there will be one year to go (hopefully these games will not be postponed).

Or in  Christmas / New Year time where there will be possibly more free time from work.

I would be interested in predicting the medalists, but not in predicting the team size. I am always unhappy with the German nomination policy, always way too many athletes get nominated. Personally I would only nominate athletes who can realistically finish top 8. I think predicting medalists in sports like Biathlon, Cross-Country or Speed Skating at this point wouldn’t make much sense, maybe the start of the next season would be a better date for early predictions.

[mrv86 3,138]

  MEXICO   

 

 

Ski Sports

 

Alpine Skiing  (2) - One of each gender. Mexican born Rodolfo Dickson (a native of Puerto Vallarta, adopted by Canadians) already has achieved qualification in Giant Slalom, and currently, Sarah Schleper just needs another valid result in that same event to qualify for her 5th Olympics (first 3 representing her birth country). No other athlete is near the eligilibity right now, but von Hohenlohe is still competing at 62  so who knows

Cross Country Skiing  (1 ) - Probably the only winter discipline in Mexico that had a boom after Pyeongchang, with many people giving it a try; however, only one competitor, Jonathan Soto has managed to score less than 300 in a race during 2020/2021. The Mexican federation is targeting to have another participation in 2022, so if he manages to repeat that result at World Championships and some other competitions, he might join the Mexican delegation. 

Ski Jumping  (0) - No active competitors

Nordic Combined  (0) - No active competitors

Freestyle Skiing  (0) - Only an active athlete in Moguls, but he won't qualify.

Snowboarding  (0) - No active competitors

Biathlon  (0) - A couple men made their debut at this sport last month, but they obviously will not make it.

 

 

Skating Sports

 

Speed Skating  (0) - I was surprised to discover we had a couple of skaters back in 2002-2006, but obviously weren't good enough to qualify, and sadly, we'll have to wait for an Olympic debut, as there are no active skaters.

Short Track Speed Skating  (0) - No Mexican skater has made their debut in this discipline.

Figure Skating  (1) -  If Donovan Carrillo improvement continued despite the pandemic, he could be the first Mexican skater in the Olympics in 30 years; On the women's side, Andrea Montesinos is still learning and given the level of powerhouses, it'll be quite difficult for her to have a real shot.

 

 

Sleigh Sports

 

Luge  (0) - No way, as Mexico isn't even a member of FIL

Skeleton  (0) - There aren't training facilities for the sport in the country since 2011, so all interest has been lost, sadly.

Bobsleigh  (0) - Read above

 

 

Team Sports

 

Curling  (0) - Mexican teams are still newbies in the scene, so no chance.

Ice Hockey  (0) - Mexican men have already been eliminated. Our women side can only hope to avoid big defeats against the Ducth & Poles and beat Turkey in October.

 

 

 

Total Optimistic Prediction  -  (4)

Total Pessimistic Prediction  - (0)

 

Total Realistic Prediction  -  (2)

[IoNuTzZ 305]

 ROMANIA  

 

Team Size Prediction for Winter Olympic Games 2022 Beijing

 

Ski Sports

 

Alpine Skiing  (2-3) - Ania Caill(D, SG), and maybe another woman in S, GS; and one men  

Cross Country Skiing  (3) - 2 M and 1 W for sure (Paul Pepene, Petrica Hogiu and one woman)

Ski Jumping  (1) - maybe Daniela Haralmbie

Nordic Combined  (0) - No active competitors

Freestyle Skiing  (0) - No active competitors

Snowboarding  (0) - i don't think we have a chance to qualify in this discipline.

Biathlon  (6) - 1W (Chirkova, Cotrus or Marton) and maybe we can qualify our men's team (Puchianu, Coltea, Buta, Florea, Oskin)

 

Skating Sports

 

Speed Skating  (1) - Mihaela Hogas in 500m and maybe 1000m

Short Track Speed Skating  (0) - ...

Figure Skating  (1) - Maybe Julia Sauter

 

 

Sleigh Sports

 

Luge  (4-6) - We should qualify 1 participant in all events, maybe 2 Men's or Women's

Skeleton  (1) - 1M (Enache or Pacioianu)

Bobsleigh  (8) - We should qualify in all events (2W - Grecu, 2M - Tentea, 4M - Tentea, Monobob - Grecu or Popescu who is the Olympic Youth winner)

 

Team Sports

 

Curling  (0) - No chance.

Ice Hockey  (0) - No.

 

 

 

Total Optimistic Prediction  -  (35)

Total Pessimistic Prediction  - (20-22) 

 

Total Realistic Prediction  -  (26-28)

[DaniSRB 899]

2-5 i guess?

[heywoodu 15,135]

10 hours ago, mrv86 said:

Probably the only winter discipline in Mexico that had a boom after Pyeongchang, with many people giving it a try

Any reason for that? I've heard German Madrazo's name quite often in the past few years, part of the infamous Project Bogota to qualify for Pyeongchang, did he grow his participation into some attention for the sport?  

[dcro 10,210]

23 minutes ago, heywoodu said:

Any reason for that? I've heard German Madrazo's name quite often in the past few years, part of the infamous Project Bogota to qualify for Pyeongchang, did he grow his participation into some attention for the sport?  

Who knows, maybe he inspired fellow scammers.