Swimming at the Aquatics WA World Championships 2023 Road to Paris 2024

[dullard 440]

18 hours ago, OlympicsFan said:

The morrocan guy is probably the most obvious case since Mellouli. Improving your PB by 30 seconds is insane for an age group swimmer, but completely unbelievable for someone of his age. This guy has never before done anything in the 800/1500 free long course. He is mediocre at best all season long and then completely smashes it at worlds. He becomes the 2nd fastest guy ever out of nowhere (ahead of guys like Paltrinieri, Wellbrock, Romanchuk or Hackett) and makes Finke look like a turtle, who himself has always made everyone else look like turtles. I hope that the german coach finds an answer to this. Wellbrock and Märtens won't stand a chance against the moroccan guy, Finke and Short unless they go all out with their doping program as well. If they aren't willing to do that, they should just retire and save the tax payers their money.

Are you just going to ignore that Hafnaoui won silver in the 1500 at short course worlds in 2021 in a historically fast time behind Wellbrock who set the current world record? His long course 1500 PB remained stagnant because he spent last year focused on his studies in order to gain NCAA eligibility. Hafnaoui also beat Finke multiple times at TYR Pro meets earlier in the year so he was hardly mediocre all season long but it seems that some of the European guys pop big times early in the season (trials meets?) while Hafnaoui, Finke and Short don't need to peak until Worlds because they have no competition in their events from their own country.

Edited July 31, 2023 by dullard

[heywoodu 13,562]

11 hours ago, mpjmcevoy said:

I wouldn't mind a mixed 4 x 200 medley relay - give the distance strokes a medley to aim at...

And the 4x50m medley of course, otherwise it'd be unfair to the sprint strokes.

[De_Gambassi 896]

 

 

9 hours ago, OlympicsFan said:

I did a nations ranking (only olympic events) according to the FINA scoring system* (can't guarantee that everything is correct):

925

749

499

376

356

309

307

249

237

180

171

141

125

90

67

& 63

53

52

49

46

42

40

39

30

28

27

26

23

& 21

18

& 15

14

13

12

11

10

8

& & 7

6

5

4

& & & 3

& 2

1

 

* Scoring for individual events: 18-16-15-14-13-12-11-10-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1

Scoring for relays: 36-32-30-28-26-24-22-20

 

Great stuff, thank you. Here is the Tokyo's scoring table for the sake of comparison.

 

https://swimswam.com/ranking-nations-by-the-fina-scoring-system-at-the-tokyo-olympics/

Edited July 31, 2023 by De_Gambassi

[OlympicsFan 783]

4 hours ago, dullard said:

Are you just going to ignore that Hafnaoui won silver in the 1500 at short course worlds in 2021 in a historically fast time behind Wellbrock who set the current world record? His long course 1500 PB remained stagnant because he spent last year focused on his studies in order to gain NCAA eligibility. Hafnaoui also beat Finke multiple times at TYR Pro meets earlier in the year so he was hardly mediocre all season long but it seems that some of the European guys pop big times early in the season (trials meets?) while Hafnaoui, Finke and Short don't need to peak until Worlds because they have no competition in their events from their own country.

1) No, i don't ignore it. I explicitely wrote "never done anything in 800/1500 free long course". I also don't ignore that his short course time was still clearly slower than Wellbrock's, who has a long course PB of 14:34. Hafanoui's short course PB doesn't in any way translate to 14:31 long course.

2) If i remember correctly he never swam any in-season time that would final at worlds. When you only need to swim/run fast once a season, then it is much easier to not fail any tests. He can basically hide all-year long and just appear at worlds. Märtens and Wellbrock could have done the same (since they were already qualified), but they chose not to do it.

3) Also interesting that you say that Short (and Finke) didn't need to peak until worlds. So Short just expected to qualify in the 400 free at 80 % against guys like Winnington? Doesn't seem plausible to me. Wellbrock and Märtens had far less reason than Finke and Short to swim fast in-season, but they still did it.

4) Mellouli's doping history, the fact that Hafanoui always comes out of nowhere for worlds/olympics and the fact that he didn't do anything in the 800/1500 free (long course) before this week and then just went clearly faster than guys like Wellbrock or Paltrinieri ever did (after years of competing at the highest level) leads me to be 100 % convinced that he is a cheater. Hopefully one day things will be sorted out.

[dullard 440]

1 minute ago, OlympicsFan said:

1) No, i don't ignore it. I explicitely wrote "never done anything in 800/1500 free long course". I also don't ignore that his short course time was still clearly slower than Wellbrock's, who has a long course PB of 14:34. Hafanoui's short course PB doesn't in any way translate to 14:31 long course.

2) If i remember correctly he never swam any in-season time that would final at worlds. When you only need to swim/run fast once a season, then it is much easier to not fail any tests. He can basically hide all-year long and just appear at worlds. Märtens and Wellbrock could have done the same (since they were already qualified), but they chose not to do it.

3) Also interesting that you say that Short (and Finke) didn't need to peak until worlds. So Short just expected to qualify in the 400 free at 80 % against guys like Winnington? Doesn't seem plausible to me. Wellbrock and Märtens had far less reason than Finke and Short to swim fast in-season, but they still did it.

4) Mellouli's doping history, the fact that Hafanoui always comes out of nowhere for worlds/olympics and the fact that he didn't do anything in the 800/1500 free (long course) before this week and then just went clearly faster than guys like Wellbrock or Paltrinieri ever did (after years of competing at the highest level) leads me to be 100 % convinced that he is a cheater. Hopefully one day things will be sorted out.

1) But you are ignoring it. You've basically decided that a historically fast (#5 all time) short course 1500 isn't indicative of ability in the long course version which isn't untrue. And then you're comparing the 14:31 to his 14:10 from a year and a half ago as though he's supposed to have not progressed since then at all. At around the same age as Hafnaoui and Short Wellbrock had quite a lot of progression as well (see bottom).

 

2) Yes, it's easier to avoid incompetiton testing if you don't compete but as far as I can see Hafnaoui competed at more in season pool meets (complete with anti-doping because they were all top tier pro meets (TYR Pro and Mare Nostrum)) than Wellbrock did but he just didn't rest for them so the times aren't fast. I also imagine Hafnaoui is easy to find on Indiana University campus for out of competition testing.

 

3) Winnington and Short were really the only two contenders because Neill has shifted focus to IMs and and Horton just hasn't been good for years. Short also went 3:42 unrested in season in April.

 

Just going over Wellbrock's progression in the 1500 to see what he was like around the same age as Short and Hafnaoui and Wellbrock dropped his 1500 PB by 19 seconds in 2018 alone which is more than Short did this year.

 

Wellbrock

2016  14:55.49  
2017  15:01.34  
2018  14:36.15  <-- 19 second drop from PB, 25 second drop from previous season
 

Short

2021  14:57.22  
2022  14:48.54  
2023  14:37.28   <-- 11 second drop

 

If Hafnaoui had swum a long course 1500 at the end of 2021 instead of a short course one his long course PB would've been a lot faster already (probably low 14:40s) so the drop he had this year would have been smaller.

 

[OlympicsFan 783]

3 hours ago, dullard said:

1) But you are ignoring it. You've basically decided that a historically fast (#5 all time) short course 1500 isn't indicative of ability in the long course version which isn't untrue. And then you're comparing the 14:31 to his 14:10 from a year and a half ago as though he's supposed to have not progressed since then at all. At around the same age as Hafnaoui and Short Wellbrock had quite a lot of progression as well (see bottom).

 

2) Yes, it's easier to avoid incompetiton testing if you don't compete but as far as I can see Hafnaoui competed at more in season pool meets (complete with anti-doping because they were all top tier pro meets (TYR Pro and Mare Nostrum)) than Wellbrock did but he just didn't rest for them so the times aren't fast. I also imagine Hafnaoui is easy to find on Indiana University campus for out of competition testing.

 

3) Winnington and Short were really the only two contenders because Neill has shifted focus to IMs and and Horton just hasn't been good for years. Short also went 3:42 unrested in season in April.

 

Just going over Wellbrock's progression in the 1500 to see what he was like around the same age as Short and Hafnaoui and Wellbrock dropped his 1500 PB by 19 seconds in 2018 alone which is more than Short did this year.

 

Wellbrock

2016  14:55.49  
2017  15:01.34  
2018  14:36.15  <-- 19 second drop from PB, 25 second drop from previous season
 

Short

2021  14:57.22  
2022  14:48.54  
2023  14:37.28   <-- 11 second drop

 

If Hafnaoui had swum a long course 1500 at the end of 2021 instead of a short course one his long course PB would've been a lot faster already (probably low 14:40s) so the drop he had this year would have been smaller.

 

1) Short course times aren't very indicative, mainly because the top guys don't compete or aren't in top shape.

Wellbrock swam 14:06 when he was 14:36 long course. Hafanoui swam 14:10, which translates to 14:40 at best -> 9 seconds slower than he went this week.

When Wellbrock was as old as Hafanoui was last year, he went 14:36. Now, 5 years later, he improved by 2 seconds. Hafanoui on the other hand improved his PB by 45 seconds this year. Wellbrock improved his PB by 19 seconds when he was younger than Hafnaoui, while Hafnoui improved his PB by 45 seconds while being older. Saying that their progression is remotely comparable is completely absurd.

2) Really wonder how often he got tested after being completely irrelevant last year. Would love to see the number of his tests vs. the number of Wellbrock's tests. Also would like to know who is responsible for him. Hard to imagine tunisian officials regularly flying around the world just to test him. Maybe he wasn't faster because he wasn't rested or maybe he wasn't faster because he couldn't go faster. Anyways you have to admire his "confidence", he doesn't ever need to go fast before worlds/olympics to test his training, somehow he just knows that it will work out and that he will always drop massive amounts of time. You almost have to envy him ...

3) How about you stop throwing around the word "unrested"? If Short would have gone 3:42 unrested, he would have gone at least 3:38 at worlds. If you go 3:42 unrested you don't drop less than two seconds when fully rested. His 3:42 in-season is still infinitely more impressive than anything Hafnaoui ever did in-season. I still haven't heard why exactly Märtens and Wellbrock, who were both already qualified after last year's worlds, had to go fast in-season, but Hafanoui and Short (who both weren't qualified) didn't. The mental gymnastics you need to justify this point of view is astonishing.

 

Edit: I just calculated by how much Hafanoui improved his PB in the 400/800/1500 free vs. by how much everyone else combined (all finalists in the 400/800/1500 free) improved their PB:

Overall improvement by Hafanoui: 39.90 seconds (3 races)

Overall improvement by everyone else: 41.04 seconds (21 races)

Edited July 31, 2023 by OlympicsFan

[Swewi 300]

Sarah Sjöström Did her olympic debut 2008 and today after a successful Championship she announced she aims towards Los Angeles 2028

[rafalgorka 1,386]

https://swimswam.com/ranking-the-top-15-male-swimmers-of-the-2023-world-championships/

[rafalgorka 1,386]

https://swimswam.com/ranking-the-top-15-female-swimmers-of-the-2023-world-championships/