Early Qualification Predictions for your Nation at the Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024 Road to Paris 2024

[Laraja 1,371]

My prediction so far, based on @vinipereira's prediction haha

 

Archery: We already have a quota on men's side, but I think we won't have any issue to get two teams 6 athletes.

Artistic Swimming: maybe a duet but most likely none. 0

Athletics: Very unpredictable... I will use Vini prediction in this case . But, we have so few possibilities of medalists here. I would quote Alison (400m hurdles), Darlan Romani (Shot put), Letícia Oro Melo (Long Jump), Vivane Lyra and Erica Sena (20km Race Walk/Mixed Relay), Caio Bonfim(20km Race Walk)... There are other names, but not so favorites 32-40 athletes

Badminton: one male and one female. 2 athletes

Basketball: It was so frustating we don't qualify in Men's 5x5. We just needed the victory of Spain against Canada. Now, I think we are not going to take this quota through OQT. But, I believe women are in a better phase and they won't have trouble to get it. 12 athletes

Basketball 3x3: After that good performance from our male team at World Cup, I think we may have a chance! 0-4 athletes

Beach Volleyball: Ana Patrícia and Duda are performing so well, and we don't have problems to qualify full quota. 8 athletes

Boxing: Brazil is doing a good job is this sport and was gifted 3 medals in Tokyo. 5-7 athletes

Breaking: I was expecting better results from our team. The female basically has to win Panamerican Games, otherwise is over already. Male's team has a better chance, but I can't see any of them qualifying yet 0-1 athlete

Canoeing - Slalom: Ana Sátila is qualified. There is an internal issue in our federation, Omira Estácia is Ana's sister. Both got quotas from last Worlds, and there's a chance that Ana will give up of one her quotas, to allow her sister to compete at Olympics. Of course it would be bad for our chances of get a medal, once Ana is some steps ahead of her sister. I don't know what happened to Pepê, I think he didn't compete, but he would be our best name at men's side. At least Ana's sister, now the french-brazilian athlete, had a good performance and should take it on the continental event. 2 athletes

Canoeing - Sprint: the same as usual. Isaquias is already there, but I think it is gonna be harder to take more quotas and events. Even the participation of Isaquias in C2 is at stake. 3-4 athletes

Cycling - BMX: one male and one female in Racing. We already have our female quota. The male is not so guaranteed, but I think we will get it eventually through some event. Brazil is improving in the Freestyle competition, I think we won't get any quota, but it's nice to see that we may participate in OQS and being competing among the tops 2 athletes

Cycling - Mountain Bike: After Avancini retirement, our chances in this sport went down quickly! We wil take probably one quota at each side 2 athletes

Cycling - Road: After an absence in Tokyo, Brazil will return here in both sides. That's already a conquer for us 2

Cycling - Track: We are very far from any chance of qualification, unfortunately we won't take anything 0

Diving: We are improving a lot here. We already have two athletes qualified, and I think we can grab more 4 athletes

Equestrian: Looks we just got our Jumping Team Quota, so now it's Dressage and Eventing moment to take it in Panamerican. I think we will get it. 9 athletes

Fencing: Hardly ever to get a team quota. But, we have good chances to get some individual quotas. 3-4 athletes

Field Hockey: It's unbelievable how we don't evolve on it. We are going to participate at Panamerican Games, but no chances. 0

Football: women's team already qualified, but for men it's always a gamble. And our coach is terrible, so I am really worried if we will qualify. 18-36 athletes

Golf: That's another sport where we have a huge gap to improve. 0

Gymnastics - Artistic: So, it's already confirmed that we won't have men's team. But, women's will be very easy. 8 athletes

Gymnastics - Rhythmic: We already have full quota 6 athletes

Gymnastics - Trampoline: I think this time we will get one female quota. With some luck we can grab even a second female, or male quota. 1-2 athlete

Handball: women's team is likely to qualify, but the men's is never certain. 14-28 athletes

Judo: I think we will miss two or maybe three categories this time 11-12 athletes

Marathon Swimming: Ana Marcela will likely qualify, and I think Jungblut may take it too. For male, I believe we will miss it 1-2 athletes

Modern Pentathlon: probably none? With some luck someone could qualify. 0-1 athlete

Rowing: Verthein should qualify at continental event. 0-1 athlete

Rugby Sevens: Women's team is already in, but for men's team is unlikely 12 athletes

Sailing: Our performance at Worlds could be much better, but I think we will miss just two events. 10-14 athletes

Shooting: We already have one quota. I am otimistic here, I think we can grab more one or two. 2-3 athletes

Skateboarding: not as easy this time to qualify the full quota. We may lost one quota at men's street 11-12 athletes

Sport Climbing: Unfortunately we don't have any chances here 0

Surfing: not likely to qualify 2 female athletes like in Tokyo. But, we still can qualify the third athlete for our male team 3-4 athletes

Swimming: Again, I will use Vini prediction here. I quite pessimistic about this sport. We just have one or two actual chances of medal. 22-28 athletes

Table Tennis: We have full quota 6 athletes

Taekwondo: It's hard to predict, but I agree with Vini's prediction 2-3 athletes

Tennis: MS, MD, WS, WD all seem possible. 5-6 athletes

Triathlon: some good results lately. I think we will take 4 quotas easily, but there is a chance to have 5 athletes 4-5 athletes

Volleyball: what a disaster would be if we don't qualify both teams. 24 athletes

Water Polo: Again, other sport that isn't so well-worked. 0

Weightlifting: I don't know what happened to Natasha who didn't compete in Worlds, maybe she retired, but we have two good athletes that should qualify. 1-2 athletes

Wrestling: Always difficult to know but I think we have a few athletes that could get the quotas. 2-5 athletes

[rafalgorka 1,386]

On 9/30/2023 at 3:32 AM, rybak said:

Besides men's volleyball OQT's and Artistic Gymnastics WCH almost all chances for direct quotas for European nations are done for this year, so, it's time for my, not so early, prediction of team

 

Archery: 0-2, I believe that only Magdalena Śmiałkowska (who was one round away from getting quota at European Games) or Karyna Kazlouskaya have any chances to qualify, but I won't be surprised if we will miss this for which nobody care, including own national federation...

 

Artistic Swimming: 0, We had two girls competed in 2022 WCH and during European Games, but they have no chances for Olympics in near future.

 

Athletics: Many depends how many relays we will qualify, I believe that we should qualify all 5, but men's 4x400m may have some problems of getting in, but overally, as always, in this sport we will have the biggest delegation, between 55 to 70/75 athletes.

 

Badminton: 0, Same situation with federation like in archery, but at least here it's clear that we will not qualify anyone second Olympics in a row.

 

Basketball: 0-3-6-12-15, tbh I don't know  I think both men's and women's 3x3 have now similar chances to qualify, but I'm not sure if any will make it, same about men's 5x5 team, I would want to see them so much, but I think it's impossible, considering that only 4 spots left and so many way stronger teams didn't make it yet. 

Beach Volleyball: 2-6, surely one pair should qualify, but who it will be? Gruszczyńska with Wachowicz or Bryl/Łosiak? Kantor and Zdybek also have a shot to be qualified, but all those pairs needs to go far in upcoming World Championships to get so much needed points to Olympic ranking. We will know more about their chances in 2-3 weeks time.

 

Boxing: 1-4, I don't know what to expect after failure during European Games where our boxers lost all 8 direct fights for Olympic ticket, at easiest chance  Also so many quotas was removed in comprasion to Tokyo. It's still chance that somebody will qualify, but I have no idea who it will be, one what I know we have much bigger chances to qualify women boxers instead men boxers.

 

Breaking: Wigor and Paulina should try to qualify via OQS, but still I think that it will be 0.

 

Canoeing - Slalom: We did qualified in 3 events (M K1, M C1 and W K1). We are able also to compete in both Kayak Cross and W C1, but I believe that maybe by an possible reallocation we will get 4th quota in W C1 which will open chance to send 4 canoers instead 3. So, it's 3 or 4.

 

Canoeing - Sprint: 8-12, for now we have qualified 8 athletes (7 women's and just one men), but we aren't without chances to qualify also in both men's and womens C2 500m, both of these boats were first or one of first to be not qualified via WCH, as it was with many our athletes in other sports, let's pray and hope that we will have more luck next year. No chances in mens kayak btw.

 

Cycling - BMX: 0, we had athletes at European Games, but only because we were host nation, Olympics are too far away for us here.

 

Cycling - Mountain Bike: 2, we should qualify one men and one women without problems.

 

Cycling - Road: 3-4-5, currently we are projected to qualify 3 womens and 1 men, but I believe that we may sneak one place higher in men's ranking to get second quota, we need just surpass Eritrea, but I don't know if we are able to do it and if it's enough time left to make it.

 

Cycling - Track: 6/7-10, we should qualified in both teams in sprint but currently men's team is first underline, I think that it will change (positively for us) after next year WCH, both omnium events and women's madison.

 

Diving: 0-1, maybe 2? We did improved here conisdering previous Olympic's cycles, I think that we have to qualify at least one athlete here, in men's 10m platform, according @Topicmaster1010 simulation. Men's Synchronized 10m pair also have a little chance. I will keep my fingers to see Polish diver in Olympics first time in my life.

Equestrian: 9, first time ever (not counting Moscow 1980) we will send full team in this sport 

Fencing: 4-9, tragedy would need to happen to make it possible to our women's epee team to fail to qualify, women's foil team is first unde line and men's foil team also isn't too far away, but I doubt that men's team will qualify, it's more possible to see our men's via individual ranking or qualifying tournament.

 

Field Hockey: Yes, we will qualify here, but only in time when we will be host nation, will be it already in 2036?  0 chances since few months already.

 

Football: Same as with field hockey. - 0

Golf: 1, Adrian Meronk will qualify easy this time.

 

Gymnastics - Artistic: 0-1, only Marta Pihan-Kulesza have a small chances for qualification in balance beam, nobody else.

 

Gymnastics - Rhythmic: 0-6, we was so close to qualify via latest World Championships in team event  We will fight for last free spot for Europe with Azerbaijan and Greece, who seems to be stronger than us, maybe banned country will be allowed to compete again, either our chances seems to be small, as qualfication via WCH was like "now or never". Lilianna Lewińska should be able to qualify in individuall all around, but we don't make a big pressure on her, Los Angeles might be the Olympics where she isn't without medal chances if she will be trained good and will still improve. 

 

Gymnastics - Trampoline: 0, Not gonna happen until hosting the Games.

 

Handball: 0 Too bad that our federation didn't used fact when we had "golden times" in men's team between 2008-2016, they could make a better programm and inviting childs for training camps, but what an one grey person like me can do? Nothing. Currently we barely qualify to big tournaments and during January ECH they would need to be in final for having chances to competing in OQT, it won't gonna happen. But women's team have a better chances as they need to be in top 8 in December's WCH, for having chances to compete in OQT, but I doubt for it.

 

Judo: 1-6, Angelika Szymańska seems to be only one safe qualifier considering her recent result in Baku Grand Slam and high position in ranking. 3 other judokas are now in places giving them qualification, but they needs to have much better performances in next monhts as they are currently borderline qualifiers, 3 another (all mens) judokas still have chances for qualification too, but they also needs better results.

 

Modern Pentathlon: 1-4, Łukasz Gutkowski did qualified via European Games, I think second men (probably Sebastian Stasiak) will qualify too. Among women's Natalia Dominiak and Anna Maliszewska should be able to qualify via final ranking.

 

Rowing: Another sport where members of federation thinks more about themeselves rather than athletes (see archery, badminton, gymanstics) and what is result? Just one quota via WCH! Women's Quadruple sculls boat who had silver in Tokyo doesn't exist anymore, some of them decided to retire by bad decisions of federation, some are injured or pregnant. Natan Węgrzycki-Szymczyk also did suspend his career because of morons in federation. Because of bad results in WCH we can compete in European regattas where only women's lightweight sculls should qualify. So, it should be 6 in Paris. But maybe miracle will happen and either men's or women's four will fill just two available quotas via final regatta. We will see in May 2024.

 

Rugby Sevens: 0-12, women's team have huge chances for quota during final qualification tournament, too bad that there is just one place is available, they are good team, almost qualified during European Games, but in final Great Britain was too big task for them. I will pray strong for them for keeping current form or maybe even better when time for main matches will come.

 

Sailing: 5-11, 5 sailors are qualified for now, we have big chances for additional quotas in mens and womens formula kite, womens 49erFX and smaller in mixed 470 mainly during next year Last Chance Regatta.

 

Shooting: 4, 4 shooters have qualified for now, but I can't see if anyone else have a real chance to be qualified.

 

Skateboarding: 0, I think Amelia Brodka who represented us in park event in Tokyo is retired, but I think that @Laraja will know more than me, anyway no chances.

 

Sport Climbing: 1-3, Aleksandra Mirosław fortunately qualified via European event. One of Kałucka's sisters surely will qualify via ranking of qualification events. I still believe for Marcin Dzieński, despite small amount of available quotas and big amount, of not qualified yet strong Asian opponents. We don't have anyone competing on world level in leading and boulder.

 

Surfing:  I think it's very appropriate gif for this sport and our chances  Despite competing in latest World Surfing Games, even with 3 athletes! Maybe in Brisbane 2032 will come our time with lot of luck, let's see... For Paris it's 0 chances, it won't be also bold prediction, if I will already say that we won't competing in this sport in Los Angeles either.

 

Swimming: 12-18, Currently we have 6 qualified swimmers, but I think this number will be doubled or tripled in next months, especially when we aren't without chances to be qualified in 3 relay events.

 

Table Tennis: 1-2 I doubt to see our teams here, we have chances only via singles ranking, the biggest have Anna Węgrzyn and Samuel Kulczycki, but they are yet young, Natalia Partyka who competed in Beijing, London, Rio and Tokyo decided to focus on Paralympic Games.

 

Taekwondo: 2-3, Aleksandra Kowalczuk and Patrycja Adamkiewicz should qualified via QT, just like in Tokyo, maybe somebody else will qualify too, I don't know since I didn't follow this sport (besides Olympics) at all.

 

Tennis: 2-5, Iga Świątek, Hubert Hurkacz will be in Paris for sure, Magda Linette and Magdalena Fręch also aren't without chances considering their rankings and big amount of Chinese and Czech players being ranked higher. Jan Zieliński in doubles will qualify too if he will not lost too much ranking points after Australian Open, just like Magda Linette. I don't know what to expect from Kamil Majchrzak, when he will return in January after unfair doping ban.

 

Triathlon: 0-1, Only Paulina Klimas have a little chance to be qualified, but I prefer to be surprised with her qualification rather being dissapointed of lack of place.

 

Volleyball: 24, Women's team is qualified first time since Beijing 2008  Men's team will be there too, if not via OQT which just started then by ranking, no doubts here.

 

Water Polo: 0 Men's team did failed to qualify to European Championships, so no chances to be in Paris, but we have decent U16 boys team, maybe they will have bigger shot to qualify in 2032 or 2036, but surely not now. Women's team still doesn't exist. 

 

Weightlifting: 0-1 Currently it's very possible that we will not qualify anyone in this sport first time since... 1952(!). But maybe miracle will happen and with some doping issues and selections among qualified athletes in much stronger nations, somebody will gain the quota. But I'm not expecting this as quota reduction was also "helpful" here.

 

Wrestling: 1-5. For now only Anhelina Lysak is qualified, but like in boxing and weightlifting, cuting of available quotas also make some problems for us, also we are not strong in this sport (like in 80s and 90s) anymore. Still I believe that 2 more women's will qualify as Roksana Zasina wasn't too far for being qualified in WCH, also Anna Łukasiak had a bad luck due to drawing strong opponent already in first round. Maybe 1-2 men's will qualify too, but I have no idea who could be the lucky man.

It's been almost 2 months since you wrote it. Do you think you would update it? Anything changed in any sport for POL chances in your opinion? what you think (if you have time for writing here). I'm asking because you did a really good job here

Edited November 21, 2023 by rafalgorka

[rybak 2,694]

5 hours ago, rafalgorka said:

It's been almost 2 months since you wrote it. Do you think you would update it? Anything changed in any sport for POL chances in your opinion? what you think (if you have time for writing here). I'm asking because you did a really good job here

There is not too much update, besides confirming quotas in men's volleyball and four quotas in road cycling.

 

I would change only in table tennis from 1-2 to 0-1 as only Natalia Bajor have any chance for being qualified to Paris, also in triathlon Paulina Klimas is now outside qualification place, but I'm hoping that she will move enough high later to get a quota.