Early Qualification Predictions for your Nation at the Summer Olympic Games Paris 2024

[intoronto 6,919]

On 8/30/2022 at 4:00 PM, De_Gambassi said:

I see a pattern here 

 

 

 

Pattern continued one below your post lol

[intoronto 6,919]

 Canada

 

Artistic Swimming: Full team should qualify through the last chance tournament, sadly it seems the USA has surpassed us now. 8 Athletes

Diving: I predict two synchro pairs to qualify (10m men and 3m women). That is 4 athletes, and those 4 will compete individually. I also predict one women in 10m  and one man in 3 m, for a total. 6 athletes

Marathon Swimming: With the quota cuts, I am not sure Canada will qualify anyone, optimistically I predict one male swimmer. 1 athlete

Swimming: This is so hard to predict. I predict 23-26 swimmers

Water polo: The women should qualify, if the USA advances outside the Pan Am Games, 12 athletes

Archery: As usual, one male and one female, 2 athletes

Athletics: Another hard sport to predict, but I estimate 55-60 athletes

Badminton: Brian Yang, Michelle Li and Women's doubles should qualify. Men's doubles and mixed doubles have gone through changes so unsure if they can qualify in time for 2024. I predict 4 athletes.

Basketball: I think this is the year for the men to finally qualify. I just think with the plan they have in place and the talent, it will be hard to not be in the top 2 in  the Americas at the World Championships. The women are a solid bet to qualify, and the women's 3x3 are the world silver medalists. Both of those teams  should qualify. Guess: 28 athletes.

Boxing: I predict 4 boxers. Two World medalists on the women's side should qualify, along with Women's lowest weight category. A male boxer usually qualifies.

Breaking: I really don't care about this sport (Lol), but Canada should qualify in both events. 2 athletes

Canoeing slalom: Full team: 4 athletes

Canoeing Sprint: Men's kayak: 6 quotas, Women's Kayak: 3 quotas, Men's canoeing: 1 quota, Women's canoeing: 2 quotas. 12 athletes

Cycling BMX: 1 per gender: 2 athletes

Cycling Freestyle: N/A, unlikely

Mountain Biking: 1 per gender: 2 athletes

Road: 2 men and 2 women: 4 athletes

Track: Women's sprint: 3 athletes, Women's team pursuit: 4 athletes. Both omniums should qualify. Men's sprint: 1 athlete. 9 athletes

Equestrian: Anything short of a full team will be a disappointment. 9 athletes

Fencing: Men's and women's team foils should qualify, along with one athlete per each other discipline except men's epee. 9 athletes

Field hockey: N/A Men and women unlikely to qualify

Golf: 2 per gender, 4 athletes

Gymnastics (artistic): Women's team, men's team has an outside shot, if not one individual. (6-10 athletes)

Gymnastics Rhythmic: N/A, unlikely

Gymnastics Trampoline: One per gender: 2 athletes

Handball: Lol wut?

Judo: Men's 73, Men's 81, Men's 100 and Men's +100, Women's 52, Women's 57 and Women's 63. 7 athletes

Modern pentathlon: N/A, unlikely

Rowing: 8 boats/31 athletes, based on 2022 World Championships team

Rugby sevens: Women should qualify, Men unlikely too. (12-24 athletes)

Sailing: Anywhere from 7-11 athletes

Shooting:  Cannot see anyone qualifying. Maybe out of luck there could be a couple who do. There is a shooter formerly of India who is waiting for citizenship  to compete for Canada, would would easily qualify. My guess 0-3 athletes

Skateboarding: Anywhere from 2-5 athletes

Soccer: Women's team should qualify. 18 athletes

Sport climbing: Sean McColl and Alannah Yip. 2 athletes

Surfing: Unlikely; however optimistic about Ollin's chances of qualifying 0-1 athlete

Table tennis: One male and one female: 2 athletes

Taekwondo: Skylar Park, and that's about it. 1 athlete

Tennis: Hard to gauge, but I predict 5, 2 men's singles, 2 women's singles and a women's doubles, with one of the women's singles. 5 athletes

Triathlon: 4 athletes (2 per gender)

Volleyball: No indoor team is likely to qualify, one male beach and one women's beach pair should qualify, 4 athletes

Weightlifting: 2 athletes: Maude Charron and Boady Santavy. I can't see anyone else qualifying at this stage.

Wrestling: Men's 65/ 125 kg fs, Women's 62 kg and 76 kg, are my predictions. 4 athletes

 

Total: Approx 309 athletes

 

 

 

 

[Topicmaster1010 6,606]

Seeing as two of my compatriots have already done predictions for Canada, I'll go a different direction.

 

 Taiwan

 

Archery: Shouldn't have a problem qualifying a full quota. 6 athletes

Artistic Swimming: Not gonna happen. 0 athletes

Athletics: Based on the qualification system for Tokyo, I believe there's 3 Taiwanese athletes that would qualify. The number could be up to 7 potentially. 2-7 athletes

Badminton: Likely 2 guys in the singles, Tai Tzu-Ying in the women's singles, and a men's doubles teams With luck, maybe a mixed or women's doubles team and 2nd women's singles quota. 5-10 athletes

Basketball: Pretty popular sport in the country especially among the younger generation but no chance of qualification. 0 athletes

Boxing: Not too sure about this sport. The addition of one extra women's weight class should help Taiwan though. Let's say 2-5 athletes

Breaking: Could be a good sport for Taiwan. Let's say at least one in each gender with a potential for 2nd quotas. 2-4 athletes

Canoe Slalom: Maybe a continental quota. 0-1 athlete(s)

Canoe Sprint: Also could get a continental quota here. 0-1 athlete(s)

Cycling-Road: Maybe a chance to get a rider in either the men's or women's events. 0-1 athlete(s)

Cycling-Track: Not happening. 0 athletes

Cycling-BMX Racing: No way. 0 athletes

Cycling-BMX Freestyle: You've got to be kidding me. 0 athletes

Cycling-Mountain BIking: I'm starting to sound like a broken record here. 0 athletes

Diving: Also not happening. 0 athletes

Equestrian: Had a jumper in each of the last few games so hopefully we can expect the same again. 0-1 athlete(s)

Fencing: Don't really know here. Maybe will get lucky and qualify an athlete. Most likely not. 0-1 athlete(s)

Field Hockey: Until baseball/softball come back, don't expect to see Taiwan in any team events anytime soon. 0 athletes

Football: See above. 0 athletes

Golf: Finally a sport Taiwan is competitive at. Can expect two woman and one or two guys. 3-4 athletes

Gymnastics-Artistics: Hopefully the men's team can qualify again. A woman should be able to qualify as well. 2-6 athletes

Gymnastics-Rhythmic: 0 athletes

Gymnastics-Trampoline: 0 athletes

Handball: 0 athletes

Judo: Men's -60kg, Women's -48kg and Women's -57kg. 3 athletes

Rowing: Likely an athlete in the singles sculls: 0-1 athlete(s)

Rugby Sevens: 0 athletes

Sailing: Maybe a continental in one of the laser boats. Most likely not though. 0-1 athlete(s) 

Shooting: Definitely should be some quotas obtained here. Let's go with 3-5 athletes

Skateboarding: Nope. 0 athletes

Sport Climbing: Nope. 0 athletes

Surfing: Nope. 0 athletes

Swimming: Probably just the standard one man and one woman. Maybe a 2nd guy. 2-3 athletes

Table Tennis: Full quota. 6 athletes

Taekwondo: Between 3-4 athletes sounds about right. Men's -68kg, Men's -80kg, and Women's -57kg are the best bets.

Tennis: Good chance of having of qualifying a women's doubles team. Maybe a man can qualify too. 2-3 athletes

Triathlon: Pass. 0 athletes

Volleyball: Not gonna happen. 0 athletes

Water Polo: 0 athletes

Weightlifting: This has generally always been Taiwan's most successful sport. But with the IOC killing weightlifting quotas, it also kills Taiwan's quotas as a result. Kuo Hsing-Chun should easily qualify. Chen Wen-Huei also has a good chance of qualifying. Hopefully at least a couple more males and females can qualify. Let's go with 3-6 athletes.

Wrestling: Maybe one with a bit of luck. 0-1 athlete(s)

 

In total, that puts Taiwan at around 60 athletes.

[vinipereira 3,513]

 

Archery: hope we can qualify at least one team this time (as opposed to only one male and one female in Tokyo). 2-4 athletes.

Artistic Swimming: maybe a duet but most likely none. 0

Athletics: hard to know. 32-40 athletes

Badminton: one male and one female. 2 athletes

Basketball: we had 0 athletes in Tokyo, maybe one of the teams can qualify now with some luck. 0-12 athletes

Beach Volleyball: we're not as good as before, but it would be tragic not qualify the full quota. 8 athletes

Boxing: Brazil is doing a good job is this sport and was gifted 3 medals in Tokyo. 5-7 athletes

Breaking: Brazil has some good athletes so maybe one can qualify. 0-1 athlete

Canoeing - Slalom: Pepe and Sátila should qualify. 2 athletes

Canoeing - Sprint: the same as usual. 3-4 athletes

Cycling - BMX: one male and one female in Racing. 2 athletes

Cycling - Mountain Bike: one male (maybe 2) and one female. 2-3 athletes

Cycling - Road: Brazil sucks so hard in this lol. 0

Cycling - Track: we're slowly improving here, maybe we can qualify this time. 0-2 athletes

Diving: another sport we're improving so we should be able to keep the number of athletes from Tokyo. 4 athletes

Equestrian: hoping for a full team at least in Jumping and Eventing. For Dressage, it's more difficult. 6-9 athletes

Fencing: hoping for a team but that's just not realistic. 2-3 athletes

Field Hockey: 0

Football: women's team already qualified, but for men it's always a gamble. 18-36 athletes

Golf: not likely but who knows. 0-1 athlete

Gymnastics - Artistic: if not for a disaster (it happened last time), both teams should qualify. 10 athletes

Gymnastics - Rhythmic: the team should qualify, and an individual with some luck. 5-6 athletes

Gymnastics - Trampoline: always hard, but maybe one female or one male can qualify. 0-1 athlete

Handball: women's team is likely to qualify, but the men's is never certain. 14-28 athletes

Judo: we should qualify a full team, barring an "anomaly" like last time. 13-14 athletes

Marathon Swimming: Ana Marcela should qualify, for others it's more difficult. 1-2 athletes

Modern Pentathlon: probably none? With some luck someone could qualify. 0-1 athlete

Rowing: the guy from Tokyo could qualify again. 0-1 athlete

Rugby Sevens: it would be embarrassing if the women's team didn't qualify. 12 athletes

Sailing: we usually don't miss a lot of events here. 10-14 athletes

Shooting: 0-2 athletes

Skateboarding: not as easy this time to qualify the full quota. 10-12 athletes

Sport Climbing: 0

Surfing: not likely to qualify 2 female athletes like in Tokyo. 3-4 athletes

Swimming: like Athletics, hard to know, but something between 22-28 athletes

Table Tennis: 6 athletes

Taekwondo: 2-3 athletes

Tennis: MS, MD, WS, WD all seem possible. 5-6 athletes

Triathlon: some good results lately. 2-4 athletes

Volleyball: what a disaster would be if we don't qualify both teams. 24 athletes

Water Polo: 0

Weightlifting: 1-2 athletes

Wrestling: 2-5 athletes

 

 

Pessimistic: 230

Optimistic: 324

[Vic Liu 1,701]

 

 

Archery: Full team. 6 athletes.

Artistic Swimming: Favorite gold contender if Russia absent. 8 athletes

Athletics: A few more than Tokyo if more tournaments participated with Covid curbs lifted. 54-60 athletes

Badminton: Full team. 16 athletes

Basketball: Women's team and Women's 3x3. 16 athletes

Beach Volleyball: One or two pairs of women.  2-4 athletes

Boxing: A few more than Tokyo as we are the host of Asian Games as qualifier and chaos of Tokyo's qualifier. 8-10 athletes

Breaking: One boy and One girl are promising based on recent performance and another girl is possible. 2-3 athletes

Canoeing - Slalom: Two or three from mk1/wk1/wc1. 2-3 athletes

Canoeing - Sprint: Full team for Canoe and half team for Kayak. 13-15 athletes

Cycling - BMX: 0 

Cycling - Mountain Bike: Continental quotas. 1-2 athletes

Cycling - Road: Barely get the quota or none. 0-2 athletes

Cycling - Track: Progress expected Full team for women and at least one team quota for men. 11-14 athletes

Diving: Full quotas but some athletes will attend two events. 10-12 athletes

Equestrian: No more team quotas. 1-2 athletes

Fencing: Two or three team quotas and rest are individuals. 10-12 athletes

Field Hockey: 50% possibility of women's team. 0 or 16 athletes

Football: 50% possibility of women's team. 0 or 18 athletes

Golf: Full quotas for non world ranking top15. 4 athletes

Gymnastics - Artistic: Full team. 10 athletes

Gymnastics - Rhythmic: Group should be fine, one individual is quite likely. 5-6 athletes

Gymnastics - Trampoline: Full team. 4 athletes

Handball: No possibilities. 0

Judo: Very difficult for men and women should be fine. 6-8 athletes

Marathon Swimming: continental quotas should be fine and rest is by luck. 2-3 athletes

Modern Pentathlon: Full team. 4 athletes

Rowing: Most unpredictable sports and my guess is a few less than Tokyo. 21-29 athletes

Rugby Sevens: 50% possibility of women's team. 0 or 12 athletes

Sailing: We may lose quotas of one or two events. 10-14 athletes

Shooting: Possibly drop several quotas of men's shotgun and rest should be fine. 21-24 athletes

Skateboarding: Same as Tokyo. 1-2 athletes

Sport Climbing: Almost full quotas for speed and possible one or two quotas for boulder and lead. 4-6 athletes

Surfing: 0

Swimming: A few more than Tokyo with covid curbs lifted. 38-46 athletes

Table Tennis: Full team. 6 athletes

Taekwondo: 4-6 athletes

Tennis: Full team for women and possible one or two men. 6-7 athletes

Triathlon: Maybe one continental quota. 0-1 athlete

Volleyball: Women's team should be fine. 12 athletes

Water Polo: Women's team should be fine. 12 athletes

Weightlifting: Full quotas. 6 athletes

Wrestling: Similar to Tokyo. 10-12 athletes

 

 

Pessimistic: 346

Optimistic: 453

Realistic: Approx 400 (London 396, Rio 405, Tokyo 406)

[Vic Liu 1,701]

  

 

Some minor updates in red when 2022 season over

 

Archery: Full team. 6 athletes.

Artistic Swimming: Favorite gold contender if Russia absent. 8 athletes

Athletics: A few more than Tokyo if more tournaments participated with Covid curbs lifted. 54-60 athletes

Badminton: Full team. 16 athletes

Basketball: Women's team and Women's 3x3. 16 athletes

Beach Volleyball: One or two pairs of women.  2-4 athletes

Boxing: A few more than Tokyo as we are the host of Asian Games as qualifier and chaos of Tokyo's qualifier. 8-10 athletes

Breaking: One boy and One girl are promising based on recent performance and another girl is possible. 2-3 athletes

Canoeing - Slalom: Two or three from mk1/wk1/wc1. 2-3 athletes

Canoeing - Sprint: Full team for Canoe and half team for Kayak. 13-15 athletes

Cycling - BMX: At least one and possible two quotas for women's freestyle given winning World Cup stage gold and silver 0 1-2 athletes

Cycling - Mountain Bike: Continental quotas. 1-2 athletes

Cycling - Road: Barely get the quota or none. 0-2 athletes

Cycling - Track: Progress expected Full team for women and at least one team quota for men. 11-14 athletes

Diving: Full quotas but some athletes will attend two events. 10-12 athletes

Equestrian: No more team quotas. 1-2 athletes

Fencing: Two or three team quotas and rest are individuals. 10-12 athletes

Field Hockey: 50% possibility of women's team. 0 or 16 athletes

Football: 50% possibility of women's team. 0 or 18 athletes

Golf: Full quotas for non world ranking top15. 4 athletes

Gymnastics - Artistic: Full team. 10 athletes

Gymnastics - Rhythmic: Group should be fine, one individual is quite likely. 5-6 athletes

Gymnastics - Trampoline: Full team. 4 athletes

Handball: No possibilities. 0

Judo: Very difficult for men and women should be fine. 6-8 athletes

Marathon Swimming: continental quotas should be fine and rest is by luck. 2-3 athletes

Modern Pentathlon: Full team. 4 athletes

Rowing: Most unpredictable sports and my guess is a few less than Tokyo. 21-29 athletes

Rugby Sevens: 50% possibility of women's team. 0 or 12 athletes

Sailing: We may lose quotas of one or two events, and a few more may lose if Asian Games is not continental qualifier. 10-14 athletes 8-12 athletes

Shooting: Possibly drop several quotas of men's shotgun and rest should be fine. 21-24 athletes

Skateboarding: Same as Tokyo. 1-2 athletes

Sport Climbing: Almost full quotas for speed and possible one or two quotas for boulder and lead. 4-6 athletes

Surfing: Possible one quota for women 0 0-1 athlete

Swimming: A few more than Tokyo with covid curbs lifted. 38-46 athletes

Table Tennis: Full team. 6 athletes

Taekwondo: 4-6 athletes

Tennis: Full team for women and possible one or two men. 6-7 athletes

Triathlon: Maybe one continental quota. 0-1 athlete

Volleyball: Women's team should be fine. 12 athletes

Water Polo: Women's team should be fine. 12 athletes

Weightlifting: Full quotas. 6 athletes

Wrestling: Similar to Tokyo. 10-12 athletes

 

 

Pessimistic: 346 345

Optimistic: 453 454

Realistic: Approx 400 (London 396, Rio 405, Tokyo 406)

[rafalgorka 1,821]

Are there any users from other NOCs than before who would like to join this thread??? Could be interesting.

[dodge 1,041]

I’ll have a go for  

 

Athletics - 15

 

Quietly optimistic about Irish athletics. I’m hoping Rhasidat Adeleke continues her development at 400m. We’d need at least one relay team to reach 15 but I think we can do it

 

Badminton - 1

 

Just Nhat Nguyen in the mens

 

Boxing - 8

 

5 women and 3 men. Amy Broadhurst has moved to 66kg and I’m predicting she’ll win gold in Paris. 2 medals in Tokyo, we will surpass that

 

Canoe Slalom - 1

 

We have 3 decent C1 paddlers and they’ll get one of the quotas and fight for it between them

 

Cycling Road - 3

 

2 men and 1 woman for the first time. Mia Griffin is a world tour rider this year and I’m putting her down in hope more than expectation

 

Cycling Track - 4

 

the women’s pursuit team will qualify and compete in the madison too

 

Diving - 2

 

Hopeful that Tanya Watson will return and Jake Passmore graduates from the junior ranks

 

Equestrian - 7

 

show jumping and eventing are already in. We’ll add a solo dressage competitor. The show jumping team will win a medal. 
 

Golf - 4

 

Any number of men could join McIlroy. Leona Maguire and Stephanie Meadow will go to their 3rd games. Medal chances in men’s and women’s 

 

Gymnastics - 2

 

Rhys McClenaghan in pommel and an all round woman, probably Emma Slevin. Hoping our world champ can get that Olympic medal 

 

Modern Pentathlon - 1

 

Natalya Coyle is rumoured to be on the comeback trail. Sive Brassil may qualify too 

 

Rowing - 18

 

Mens and women’s fours. Men’s and women’s lightweight sculls. Men’s and women’s pair. Women’s double. 2 medals with McCarthy and O’Donovan retaining gold. 
 

Rugby 7s - 24

 

Initially I was pessimistic about our chances to qualify but I now think our men will win at the Euro qualifier and the women will get in at the last chance qualifier. Medal chance for the men (outside)

 

Sailing - 3

 

49er and Laser Radial. Laser is a possibility too. Going young Eve McMahon gets the nod at radial 

 

Swimming - 6

 

No relay this time but 6 individual with Daniel Wiffen being an outside chance of a medal in the distance events in the pool

 

Taekwondo - 1

 

Jack Woolley will make his second games and anything could happen. 
 

Other sports were we have chances to qualify include Hockey (very much a down year for men and women), Triathlon (our Olympians effectively took 2022 off), weightlifting (because the qualification rules are insane) and shooting (men’s and women’s trap are somewhat competitive).

[Siddhartha Talukdar 263]

India

Archery - 2: Should easily 1 individual per gender and even in mixed team after qualification. Team performance is too inconsistent to predict whether team shall qualify, although both teams are within top 10 in current Archery rankings

 

Athletics - 20 to 25: Men and women 4 x 400 m relay teams, male triple jumpers and jumpers, Tokyo gold medalist Neeraj Chopra + one javelin thrower, 2-3 race walkers both genders, hope to see National Record holder in 1500m Harmilian Bains in action

 

Badminton - 7:

Men's Singles - Hopefully two of Lakshya Sen, HS Pronnoy and Srikanth Kidambi can be consistent to be ranked in top 16

Women's Singles - Just PV Sindhu, all young and upcming singles' performances have been very underwhelming

Men's Doubles - Satwik and Chirag pair

Women's Doubles - Upcoming pair of Treesa Jolly-Gopichand can step up and good enough to qualify

Mixed Doubles - No qualification likely, perhaps pair of Ishaan-Tanisha can do a miracle

 

Basketball - 0

 

Boxing - 4 in women 5 in men: World and Commonwealth Champion Nikhat Zareen should qualify. Other prominent boxers are Amit Panghal, Shiva Thapa and Lovlina Borgohain

 

Breaking - 0

 

Canoeing - 0

 

Cycling - 1: Hopeful about former Junior World no 1 Esow Elben who is just 21 now

 

Equestrian - 1: Asian Games silver medalist Fouaad Mirza in eventing

 

Fencing - 1: Bhavani Devi in women's sabre, dark horse is Taniksha Khatri in women's epee

 

Field Hockey - 32: Both teams are good enough to be Asian Games champions

 

Football - 0

 

Golf - 4: Currently two males and one female are in qualifying list, Tvesa Malik should pick up to qualify

 

Gymnastics - 0

 

Handball - 0

 

Judo - 1: via continental quota

 

Modern Pentathlon - 0

 

Rowing - 1: Indian rowers have always been medalists in Asian Games

 

Rugby sevens - 0

 

Sailing - 3: Tokyo 2020 participants Nethra Kumanan in Laser and pair of Ganapathy-Thakkar in Men's 49er should qualify again

 

Shooting - 14: 3 already qualified in World Championships, additional qualifications should come in rifle and pistol events for both genders. Any qualification in shotgun is a bonus

 

Skateboarding - 0

 

Sport climbing - 0

 

Surfing - 0

 

Swimming - 2: One male swimmer ma qualify via timing and female swimmer to qualify via Universality quota

Other Aquatics - 0

 

Table Tennis - 4: Two per gender should qualify with one quota per gender guaranteed as Asia allots one of its quota to South Asia. Historic qualification will be team qualification which both teams are capable of

 

Taekwondo - 0

 

Tennis - 0

 

Triathlon - 0

 

Volleyball - 0

 

Weightlifting - 1: Tokyo silver medalist and former World Champion Mirabai Chanu's weight category 49kg was retained and she remains the best weightlifter after the Chinese. 2018 Youth Olympics gold medalist Jeremy Lalrinnunga's weight category 67kg got axed and has to move to 73kg, with reduced quotas he really needs to work hard to qualify

 

Wrestling - 7: same crop of wrestlers like Ravi Dahiya, Bajrang Punia, Vinesh Phogat should qualify again. None in Grec-Roman

 

Total: Should range between 110-115. India has hit a ceiling with respect to contingent size (117 in Rio, 126 in Tokyo).

 

 

[Dnl 726]

9 hours ago, rafalgorka said:

Are there any users from other NOCs than before who would like to join this thread??? Could be interesting.

I mean I opened it and forgot to write my prediction  so I’ll do it